Fast and Slow Responses of the North Pacific Mode Water and Subtropical Countercurrent to Global Warming

Six coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are em-ployed for examining the full evolution of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) under global warming over 400 years following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5. The mode water and STCC first show a sharp weakening trend when the radiative forcing increases, but then reverse to a slow strengthening trend of smaller magnitude after the radiative forcing is stablized. As the radiative forcing increases during the 21st century, the ocean warming is surface-intensified and decreases with depth, strengthening the upper ocean's stratification and becoming unfavorable for the mode water formation. Moving southward in the subtropical gyre, the shrinking mode water decelerates the STCC to the south. After the radiative forcing is stabilized in the 2070s, the subsequent warming is greater at the subsurface than at the sea surface, destabilizing the upper ocean and becoming favorable for the mode water formation. As a result, the mode water and STCC recover gradually after the radiative forc-ing is stabilized.

Numerical Study of Boundary Layer Structure and Rainfall after Landfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013): Sensitivity to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

The boundary layer structure and related heavy rainfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013), which made landfall in Zhejiang Province, China, are studied using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with a focus on the sensitivity of the simulation to the planetary boundary layer parameterization. Two groups of experiments—one with the same surface layer scheme and including the Yonsei University(YSU), Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino Level 2.5,and Bougeault and Lacarrere schemes; and the other with different surface layer schemes and including the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic′ and Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination schemes—are investigated. For the convenience of comparative analysis, the simulation with the YSU scheme is chosen as the control run because this scheme successfully reproduces the track, intensity and rainfall as a whole. The maximum deviations in the peak tangential and peak radial winds may account for 11% and 33%of those produced in the control run, respectively. Further diagnosis indicates that the vertical diffusivity is much larger in the first group, resulting in weaker vertical shear of the tangential and radial winds in the boundary layer and a deeper inflow layer therein. The precipitation discrepancies are related to the simulated track deflection and the differences in the simulated low-level convergent flow among all tests. Furthermore, the first group more efficiently transfers moisture and energy and produces a stronger ascending motion than the second, contributing to a deeper moist layer, stronger convection and greater precipitation.

Skewness of subsurface ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific based on assimilated data

The skewness of subsurface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows a significant asymmetry between the east and west.A positive temperature skewness appears in the equatorial eastern Pacific,while the temperature skewness in the western and central Pacific is primarily negative.There is also an asymmetry of the temperature skewness above and below the climatological mean thermocline in the central and western Pacific.A positive skewness appears below the thermocline,but the skewness is negative above the thermocline.The distinctive vertical asymmetry of the temperature skewness is argued to be attributed to the asymmetric temperature response to upward and downward thermocline displacement in the presence of the observed upper-ocean vertical thermal structure.Because of positive(negative) second derivative of temperature with respect to depth below(above) the thermocline,an upward and a downward shift of the thermocline with equal displacement would lead to a negative temperature skewness above the thermocline but a positive skewness below the thermocline.In the far eastern equatorial Pacific,the thermocline is close to the base of the mixed layer,the shape of the upper-ocean vertical temperature profile cannot be kept.Positive skewness appears in both below the thermocline and above the thermocline in the far eastern basin.Over the central and eastern Pacific,the anomalies of the subsurface waters tend to entrain into the surface mixed layer(by climatological mean upwelling) and then affect the SST.Hence,the positive(negative) subsurface skewness in the far eastern(central) Pacific may favor positive(negative) SST skewness,which is consistent with the observational fact that more La Nia(El Nio) occur in the central(eastern) Pacific.The present result implies a possible new paradigm for El Nio and La Nia amplitude asymmetry in the eastern Pacific.

Interannual Variation of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events in the Western North Pacific

The interannual variability of occurrence of multiple tropical cyclone （MTC） events during June-October in the western North Pacific （WNP） was examined for the period 1979-2006. The number of the MTC events ranged from 2 to 9 per year, exhibiting a remarkable year-to-year variation. Seven active and seven inactive MTC years were identified. Compared to the inactive years, tropical cyclone genesis locations extended farther to the east and in the meridional direction during the active MTC years. A composite analysis shows that inactive MTC years were often associated with the E1 Nifio decaying phase, as warm SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific in the preceding winter transitioned into cold sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies in the concurrent summer. Associated with the SST evolution were suppressed low-level cyclonic vorticity and weakened convection in the WNP monsoon region. In addition to the mean flow difference~ significant differences between active and inactive MTC years were also found in the strength of the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation （ISO）. Compared with inactive MTC years, ISO activity was much stronger along the equator and in the WNP region during active MTC years. Both westwardand northward-propagating ISO spectrums strengthened during active MTC years compared to inactive years. The combined mean state and ISO activity changes may set up a favorable environment for the generation of MTC events.

CONNECTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON TO MARITIME CONTINENT CONVECTION AND ENSO

The relationship between the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) and the Nino3.4 index and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns associated with a strong and weak SCSSM are investigated using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) data and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data. The SCSSM is significantly positively correlated with the Nino3.4 index in the succeeding northern autumn and winter. In the strong minus weak SCSSM composite, a positive East Asia-Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern and a negative Europe-Asian-Pacific teleconnection (EUP) pattern appear in the 500 hPa height difference field; low-level cross-equatorial flows are strengthened over the Maritime Continent (MC) region; positive (negative) precipitation anomalies occur in the South China Sea and western north Pacific (MC). A possible mechanism through which SCSSM affects ENSO is proposed. A strong (weak) SCSSM strengthens (weakens) cross-equatorial flows over the MC. The anomalous cross-equatorial flows cool (warm) the SST around the MC through enhanced (reduced) surface latent heat fluxes. The cooling (warming) further leads to suppressed (enhanced) convection over the MC, and causes the anomalous westerly (easterly) in the equatorial western Pacific, which favors the onset of El Nio (La Nia) through modulating the positive air-sea feedback process.

Development Processes of the Tropical Pacific Meridional Mode

Mechanisms for the spatio-temporal development of the Tropical Pacific Meridional Mode （TPMM） are investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and observations. In both observations and the model, this meridional mode displays decadal variations and is most pronounced in spring and early summer. The model simulation suggests that once SST anomalies in the subtropical northeastern Pacific are initiated, say by northeasterly trade wind variability, perturbations evolve into a merdional dipole in 2 -3 months. A wind-evaporative-SST feedback causes a southwestward propagation of initial subtropical SST anomalies, while anomalous equatorial upwelling helps form the southern lobe of the meridional dipole. The TPMM development is a fast process （a few months） and depends on the seasonal cycle.

On Sea Surface Roughness Parameterization and Its Effect on Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity

A new parameterization scheme of sea surface momentum roughness length for all wind regimes, including high winds, under tropical cyclone （TC） conditions is constructed based on measurements from Global Positioning System （GPS） dropsonde. It reproduces the observed regime transition, namely, an increase of the drag coefficient with an increase in wind speed up to 40 m s-1 , followed by a decrease with a further increase in wind speed. The effect of this parameterization on the structure and intensity of TCs is evaluated using a newly developed numerical model, TCM4. The results show that the final intensity is increased by 10.5% （8.9%） in the maximum surface wind speed and by 8.1 hPa （5.9 hPa） in the minimum sea surface pressure drop with （without） dissipative heating. This intensity increase is found to be due mainly to the reduced frictional dissipation in the surface layer and little to do with either the surface enthalpy flux or latent heat release in the eyewall convection. The effect of the new parameterization on the storm structure is found to be insignificant and occurs only in the inner core region with the increase in tangential winds in the eyewall and the increase in temperature anomalies in the eye. This is because the difference in drag coefficient appears only in a small area under the eyewall. Implications of the results are briefly discussed.

Pathways of mesoscale variability in the South China Sea

The propagation of oceanic mesoscale signals in the South China Sea(SCS) is mapped from satellite altimetric observations and an eddy-resolving global ocean model by using the maximum cross-correlation(MCC) method.Significant mesoscale signals propagate along two major bands of high variability.The northern band is located west of the Luzon Strait,characterized by southwestward eddy propagation.Although eddies are the most active in winter,their southwestward migrations,steered by bathymetry,occur throughout the year.Advection by the mean flow plays a secondary role in modulating the propagating speed.The southern eddy band lies in the southwest part of the SCS deep basin and is oriented in an approximately meridional direction.Mesoscale variability propagates southward along the band in autumn.This southward eddy pathway could not be explained by mean flow advection and is likely related to eddy detachments from the western boundary current due to nonlinear effects.Our mapping of eddy propagation velocities provides important information for further understanding eddy dynamics in the SCS.

An interdecadal change of tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea in the early 1990s

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the South China Sea (SCS) during 1979-2008 underwent a decadal variation around 1993. A total of 55 TCs formed in the SCS from May to September during 1994- 2008, about twice that during 1979-1993 (27). During the TC peak season (July-September, JAS), there were 43TCs from 1994-2008, but only 17 during 1979-1993. For July in particular, 13TCs formed from 1994-2008, but there were none during 1979-1993. The change in TC number is associated with changes of key environmental conditions in atmosphere and ocean. Compared to 1979-1993, the subtropical high was significantly weaker and was displaced more eastward during 1994-2008. In the former period, a stronger subtropical high induced downward flow, inhibiting TC formation. In the latter period, vertical wind shear and outgoing longwave radiation all weakened. Mid-level (850-500hPa) humidity, and relative vorticity were higher. Sea surface temperature and upper layer heat content were also higher in the area. All these factors favor TC genesis during the latter period. The decadal change of TC genesis led to more landfalling TCs in Southern China during the period 1994-2008, which contributed to an abrupt increase in regional rainfall.

Life cycle of intraseasonal oscillation of summer SST in the western South China Sea

Intraseasonal oscillation （ ISO, times-cales of 30 ~ 90 d） of summer sea surface temperature （SST） in the western South China Sea is studied using harmonic and empirical orthogonal function analyses of microwave observations by the tropical rainfall measuring mission satellite. Each summer from May to September, two or three ISO events occur off South Vietnam, with a typical period of approximately 50 d. The life cycle of these events from the initiation to decay of SST anomalies is described.

The terraced thermal contrast among the Tibetan Plateau,the East Asian plain, and the western North Pacific and its impacts on the seasonal transition of East Asian climate

The heating sources over the Tibetan Plateau(TP),the East Asian plain,and the western North Pacific(WNP)form a terraced thermal contrast in the west-east direction.Over East Asia and the WNP,this zonal thermal contrast contributes as high as 45%to the seasonal variance based on the EOF analysis and exerts a significant impact on the seasonal transition of the East Asian climate through the enhancement of the year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP in late March and early April.This effect is investigated in this study using a high-resolution regional atmospheric model by doubling the surface sensible heat flux,respectively,over the TP,the East Asian plain,and the WNP in three sensitivity experiments.Comparisons among the experiments reveal that doubling the surface sensible heat flux over the WNP has little upstream response over East Asia.The increased zonal thermal contrast between the TP and the East Asian plain due to doubled heat flux over the TP would induce anomalous northerly over the region with year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP and weaken its seasonal enhancement.Doubling the surface sensible heat flux over the East Asian plain decreases the zonal thermal contrast and leads to southerly anomaly over the region with year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP and South China,which is favorable for the enhancement of the year-round southerly and its eastward extension.

1998年夏季长江流域大气季节内振荡的结构演变及其对降水的影响

利用中国逐日降水格点资料和NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,对1998年发生在我国东部长江中下游流域的夏季持续性强降水过程中显著的大气季节内振荡(ISO)的三维结构演变等活动特征进行了分析。1998年夏季长江及江南地区的异常强降水对应着该地区强的ISO活动。利用位相合成方法,对长江流域两个典型的季节内循环周期的ISO降水、850 h Pa水平风场以及水汽和垂直速度等循环过程的时空分布特征进行了诊断分析。在低频环流场上,对流层低层的低频气旋和反气旋环流表现出交替在热带西北太平洋增强并向西偏北方向移动发展的特征,当异常气旋环流移动到长江流域上空时,长江流域正好位于气旋环流西南侧的东北风异常和西北太平洋上向西移动的反气旋环流西北侧的西南风异常环流汇合处的下方,引起该地区强降水的发生。在强降水阶段的ISO的垂直结构上,上升运动和水汽表现出从华南到长江流域自南向北移动的特征,强烈的垂直上升运动以及来自南方充足的水汽为增强长江流域地区的降水起到了重要作用。

Recent Advance in Understanding the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation （MJO） is a dominant atmospheric low-frequency mode in the tropics. In this review article, recent progress in understanding the MJO dynamics is described. Firstly, the fundamental physical processes responsible for MJO eastward phase propagation are discussed. Next, a recent modeling result to address why MJO prefers a planetary zonal scale is presented. The effect of the seasonal mean state on distinctive propagation characteristics between northern winter and summer is discussed in a theoretical framework. Then, the observed precursor signals and the physical mechanism of MJO initiation in the western equatorial Indian Ocean are further discussed. Finally, scale interactions between MJO and higher- frequency eddies are delineated.

Impacts of intraseasonal oscillation on the onset and interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon

The role of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on the seasonal and interannual variations of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated based on the analysis of observational data. It is shown that the ISO significantly contributes to the establishment of low-level westerlies during the monsoon onset and developing periods. The effect of the ISO on the annual cycle of the monsoon is through nonlinear eddy momentum transport. On the interannual timescale, the Indian summer monsoon rainfall exhibits a significant out-of-phase relationship with the ISO intensity over the Indian monsoon region. In strong ISO years it appears the weak monsoon when there is an abnormal high over the India subcontinent in the lower troposphere. In weak ISO years there exists an abnormal low and the strong monsoon ap-pears.

Improving Simulation of a Tropical Cyclone Using Dynamical Initialization and Large-Scale Spectral Nudging: A Case Study of Typhoon Megi (2010)

In this study, an approach combining dynamical initialization and large-scale spectral nudging is proposed to achieve improved numerical simulations of tropical cyclones （TCs）, including track, structure, intensity, and their changes, based on the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting （ARW-WRF） model. The effectiveness of the approach has been demonstrated with a case study of Typhoon Megi （2010）. The ARW-WRF model with the proposed approach realistically reproduced many aspects of Typhoon Megi in a 7-day-long simulation. In particular, the model simulated quite well not only the storm track and intensity changes but also the structure changes before, during, and after its landfall over the Luzon Island in the northern Philippines, as well as after it reentered the ocean over the South China Sea （SCS）. The results from several sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach is quite effective and ideal for achieving realistic simulations of real TCs, and thus is useful for understanding the TC inner-core dynamics, and structure and intensity changes.

Advancing Climate Dynamics Toward Reliable Regional Climate Projections

With a scientific consensus reached regarding the anthropogenic effect on global mean temperature, developing reliable regional climate projections has emerged as a new challenge for climate science. A national project was launched in China in 2012 to study ocean's role in regional climate change. This paper starts with a review of recent advances in the study of regional climate re-sponse to global warming, followed by a description of the Chinese project including the rationale, objectives, and plan for field ob-servations. The 15 research articles that follow in the special issue are highlighted, representing some of the initial results from the project.

RECENT RESEARCH PROGRESS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY

This article provides a balanced, brief review on the research progress in the area of tropical cyclone(TC) structure and intensity achieved in the past three decade. Efforts have been made to introduce basic concepts and new findings relevant to the understanding of TC structure and intensity in ways as simple and appreciate as possible. After a brief discussion on the axisymmetric and asymmetric structure of mature TCs, progress in our understanding of spiral rainbands, concentric eyewall cycle, annular hurricane structure, and the inner-core size of TCs is highlighted. This is followed by discussions on the maximum potential intensity(MPI) of TCs and factors that limit TC maximum intensity. Some important remaining issues that need to be studied and addressed in the near future by the research community are identified and briefly discussed as well.

Impacts of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on Indo-East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship

In this study, the effect of the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) variation in inducing the circulation anomaly in the Indo-East Asian monsoon (IEAM) region is investigated through the observational analysis and numerical model-ing. The observational analysis shows that the TNA summer SST is positively correlated with the preceding winter Ni?o3 SST and is simultaneously correlated with the circulation in the IEAM region. The simultaneous circulation pattern resembles that of the ENSO-decaying summer. The positive correlation between the TNA SST and the Ni?o3 region SST is primarily ascribed to the surface latent heat flux and short wave radiation anomalies induced by the ENSO teleconnection. Coupled general circulation model experiments show that, while including the air-sea coupling in the Atlantic, the model can reproduce the main features of the IEAM circulation, such as an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) and southerly anomalies over southeast China. While the climatological Atlantic SST is prescribed, the circulation over the WNP displays a significantly dif-ferent pattern, with an eastward migration of the WNP anticyclone and the associated northerly anomalies over southeast China. It is argued that anticyclonic shear and Ekman divergence associated with the atmospheric Kelvin wave response to the TNA warm SSTA forcing is the primary mechanism for the generation of the anomalous anticyclone in WNP. The results presented in this study provide a teleconnection pattern between TNA and short-term climate variability in IEAM region.

ADVANCES IN UNDERSTANDING AND FORECASTING RAPIDLY CHANGING PHENOMENA IN TROPICAL CYCLONES

This review of new understanding and forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs) is based on presentations at the International Top-level Forum on Rapid Change Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones in Haikou, China. The major topics are the sudden changes in tracks, rapid changes in structure and intensity, rapid changes in rainfall, and advances in forecasting and forecaster requirements. Although improved track forecast guidance has been achieved with the Australian ACCESS-TC model and in track forecasts to 120 h by the China Meteorological Administration, there is a continuing need for better understanding and improved track forecast guidance. Advances in understanding of processes related to rapid intensification(RI), secondary eyewall formation, mechanisms controlling inner-core structure and size changes, and structure and intensity changes at landfall have been achieved, but progress in prediction of rapid changes in structure and intensity has been slow. Taking into account complex interactions involved in TC-related rainfall, a prioritized list of physical processes that govern rainfall from landfalling TCs in China has been developed. While forecaster participants were generally encouraged by the progress being made, they expressed a strong desire for a transition of that new knowledge to timely and reliable forecast guidance products.

THE INNER-CORE SIZE INCREASE OF TYPHOON MEGI(2010) DURING ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE

While Typhoon Megi(2010) shared many common features of tropical cyclones(TCs) that crossed Luzon Island in northern Philippines,it experienced a significant inner-core size increase with little eyewall contraction during its rapid intensification(RI) phase.This is unusual since the majority of TCs experience an eyewall contraction with little or a slow inner-core size increase during RI.The inner-core size increase during RI of Typhoon Megi was simulated reasonably well using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting(ARW-WRF) model with both dynamical initialization and large-scale spectral nudging.In this paper processes responsible for the inner-core size increase of Typhoon Megi during its RI phase were analyzed based on a control simulation.It is shown that the inner-core size increase was primarily related to the binary interaction of Megi with a large-scale low-level depression in which Megi was embedded.The shearing/merging of the largescale depression with Megi and the subsequent axisymmetrization led to the strengthening of the outer circulation of Megi.Both the moist condition in the low-level depression and the binary interaction contributed to active spiral rainbands.Diabatic heating in spiral rainbands enhanced low-level inflow,which brought absolute angular momentum inward,increasing tangential wind speed outside the eyewall,thus leading to the outward expansion of tangential wind and the increase of the inner-core size of Megi.