ANALYSIS OF INDICES FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN JIANGSU

By statistical research on the occurrence pattern of severe convective weather in Jiangsu province under the influence of tropical cyclones within a 10-year period(from 2001 to 2010),this paper discovers that among different severe convective weather,the occurrence frequency of short-range heavy precipitation is the highest,thunderstorms and gales come in second,and general thunderstorms rarely happen,while hailstorms and tornadoes never occur.The statistical results also showed that within the research period there are 21 tropical cyclones(TCs) affecting the Jiangsu area and most of them are in the stage of weakening to tropical depressions.Moreover,through studying indices for relevant cases of severe convection,it is discovered that their thresholds are lower than that of previous research,which indicated that convective instability and energy accumulation can easily lead to severe convective weather eventually due to the influence of TCs.

Impact of urban expansion on regional temperature change in the Yangtze River Delta

Based on non-radiance-calibrated DMSP/OLS nighttime light imagery from 1992 to 2003, urban land area statistical data, meteorological data and land surface temperature data retrieved by MODIS and NOAA/AVHRR data, the influence of urbanization on regional climatic trend cf temperature in the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） was analyzed. Conclusions are as follows： 1） There is a significant urbanization process from 1992 to 2003 in the YRD. Four city clusters of Nanjing-Zhenjiang-Yangzhou, Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou, Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay form a zigzag city belt. The increase rate of annual mean air temperature in city-belt is 0.28-0.44℃/10a from 1991 to 2005, which is far larger than that of non-city-belt. 2） The urban heat island （UHI） effect on regional mean air temperature in different seasons is summer〉autumn〉spring〉winter. 3） The UHI intensity and the urban total population logarithm are creditably correlated. 4） The UHI effect made the regional annual mean air temperature increased 0.072℃ from 1961 to 2005, of which 0.047℃ from 1991 to 2005, and the annual maximum air temperature increased 0.162℃, of which 0.083℃ from 1991 to 2005. All these indicating that the urban expansion in the YRD from 1991 to 2005 may be regarded as a serious climate signal.

Climatic trends of different intensity heavy precipitation events concentration in China

Based on 740 stations of daily precipitation datasets in China, the precipitationconcentration degree （PCD） and precipitation-concentration period （PCP） of different intensity durative precipitation events were calculated to analyze their statistical characteristics, mainly including spatial and temporal distributions, variations and climatic trends of the two parameters of the durative heavy precipitation events in China. It is proved that these two parameters of heavy rainfall can display the temporal inhomogeneity in the precipitation field. And it is also found that there is a good positive relationship between the precipitation-concentration degree and annual rainfall amount in the Eastern and Central China. This method can be anolied in flood assessment and climate change fields.

Evaluation of Two Momentum Control Variable Schemes and Their Impact on the Variational Assimilation of Radar Wind Data:Case Study of a Squall Line

Different choices of control variables in variational assimilation can bring about different influences on the analyzed atmospheric state. Based on the WRF model＇s three-dimensional variational assimilation system, this study compares the be- havior of two momentum control variable options-streamfunction velocity potential （ψ-χ） and horizontal wind components （U-V）-in radar wind data assimilation for a squall line case that occurred in Jiangsu Province on 24 August 2014. The wind increment from the single observation test shows that the ψ-χ control variable scheme produces negative increments in the neighborhood around the observation point because streamfunction and velocity potential preserve integrals of velocity. On the contrary, the U-V control variable scheme objectively reflects the information of the observation itself. Furthermore, radial velocity data from 17 Doppler radars in eastern China are assimilated. As compared to the impact of conventional observation, the assimilation of radar radial velocity based on the U-V control variable scheme significantly improves the mesoscale dynamic field in the initial condition. The enhanced low-level jet stream, water vapor convergence and low-level wind shear result in better squall line forecasting. However, the ψ-χ control variable scheme generates a discontinuous wind field and unrealistic convergence/divergence in the analyzed field, which lead to a degraded precipitation forecast.

Change of the solar radiation and its causes in the Haihe River Basin and surrounding areas

Solar radiation is an important driving force for the formation and evolution of climate system. Analysis of change in solar radiation is helpful in understanding mechanism of climate change. In this study, the temporal and spatial variations of solar radiation and the cause of the change in solar radiation have been analyzed based on meteorological data from 46 national meteorological stations and aerosol index data from TOMS over the Haihe River Basin and surrounding areas. The results have shown that solar radiation and direct radiation significantly decreased, while scattered radiation increased during the period 1957-2008. Spatially, the decreasing trend of solar radiation was more and more significant from low population density areas to high population density areas. The spatial distribution of increase in aerosol index is consistent with that of decrease in solar radiation. The increase in aerosols resulting from human activities was an important reason for the decrease in solar radiation.

Distributed modeling of direct solar radiation on rugged terrain of the Yellow River Basin

Due to the influences of local topographical factors and terrain inter-shielding, calculation of direct solar radiation （DSR） quantity of rugged terrain is very complex. Based on digital elevation model （DEM） data and meteorological observations, a distributed model for calculating DSR over rugged terrain is developed. This model gives an all-sided consideration on factors influencing th a resolution of 1 km × 1 km for thDSR. Using the developed model, normals of annual DSR quantity wie Yellow River Basin was generated, with DEM data as the general characterization of terrain. Characteristics of DSR quantity influenced by geographic and topographic factors over rugged terrain were analyzed thoroughly. Results suggest that： influenced by local topographic factors, i.e. azimuth, slope and so on, and annual DSR quantity over mountainous area has a clear spatial difference; annual DSR quantity of sunny slope （or southern slope） of mountains is obviously larger than that of shady slope （or northern slope）. The calculated DSR quantity of the Yellow River Basin is provided in the same way as other kinds of spatial information and can be employed as basic geographic data for relevant studies as well.

Effects of precipitation variation on severe acid rain in southern China

Acid rain has been recognized as a serious environmental problem in China since the 1980s, but little is known about the effects of the climatic change in regional precipitation on the temporal and spatial variability of severe acid rain. We present the effects of the regional precipitation trend change on the area and intensity of severe acid rain in southern China, and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of SO2 and NO2 concentrations are analyzed on the basis of SO2 and NO2 column concentration data. The results are as follows. （1） The emission levels of SO2 and NO2 have reached or passed the precipitation scavenging capacity in parts of southern China owing to the emission totals of SOz and NO2 increasing from 1993 to 2004. （2） Notable changes in the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain occurred mainly in the south of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1993-2004. With an abrupt change in 1999, the severe acid rain regions were mainly located in central and western China during 1993-1999 and moved obviously eastward to the south of the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River with the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain increasing significantly from 2000 to 2004. （3） The spatial distribution and variation in the seasonal precipitation change rate of more than 10 mm/10a are similar to those of severe acid rain in southern China. An abrupt change in 1999 is seen for winter and summer precipitation, the same as for the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain in southern China. The significant increase in summer storm precipitation from 1991 to 1999 mitigated the annual precipitation acidity in the south of the Yangtze River and reduced the area of severe acid rainfall. On the other hand, the decrease in storm rainfall in summer expanded the area of severe acid rainfall in the south of the Yangtze River in 2000-2006. Therefore, the change in seasonal precipitation is an important factor in the severe acid rain regions moving eastward and expanding in southern China.

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE POSITION VARIATION OF THE WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE DIABATIC HEATING DURING PERSISTENT INTENSE RAIN EVENTS IN YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVERS BASIN

By using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China, relationships between the position variation of the West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the diabatic heating during persistent and intense rains in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin are studied. The results show that the position variation of WPSH is closely associated with the diabatic heating. There are strong apparent heating sources and moisture sinks in both the basin (to the north of WPSH) and the north of Bay of Bengal (to the west of WPSH) during persistent and intense rain events. In the basin, Q 1z begins to increase 3 days ahead of intense rainfall, maximizes 2 days later and then reduces gradually, but it changes little after precipitation ends, thus preventing the WPSH from moving northward. In the north of Bay of Bengal, 2 days ahead of strong rainfall over the basin, Q 1z starts to increase and peaks 1 day after the rain occurs, leading to the westward extension of WPSH. Afterwards, Q 1z begins declining and the WPSH makes its eastward retreat accordingly. Based on the complete vertical vorticity equation, in mid-troposphere, the vertical variation of heating in the basin is favorable to the increase of cyclonic vorticity north of WPSH, which counteracts the northward movement of WPSH and favors the persistence of rainbands over the basin. The vertical variation of heating in the north of Bay of Bengal is in favor of the increase of anti-cyclonic vorticity to the west of WPSH, which induces the westward extension of WPSH.

ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF 3DVAR AND ENSRF DIRECT ASSIMILATION OF RADAR DATA ON THE FORECAST OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT

The present study designs experiments on the direct assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity data collected by an S-band Doppler weather radar(CINRAD WSR-98D) at the Hefei Station and the reanalysis data produced by the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model,the WRF model with a three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation system and the WRF model with an ensemble square root filter(EnSRF) data assimilation system.In addition,the present study analyzes a Meiyu front heavy rainfall process that occurred in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin from July 4 to July 5,2003,through numerical simulation.The results show the following.(1) The assimilation of the radar radial velocity data can increase the perturbations in the low-altitude atmosphere over the heavy rainfall region,enhance the convective activities and reduce excessive simulated precipitation.(2) The 3DVAR assimilation method significantly adjusts the horizontal wind field.The assimilation of the reflectivity data improves the microphysical quantities and dynamic fields in the model.In addition,the assimilation of the radial velocity and reflectivity data can better adjust the wind fields and improve the intensity and location of the simulated radar echo bands.(3) The EnSRF assimilation method can assimilate more small-scale wind field information into the model.The assimilation of the reflectivity data alone can relatively accurately forecast the rainfall centers.In addition,the assimilation of the radial velocity and reflectivity data can improve the location of the simulated radar echo bands.(4) The use of the 3DVAR and EnSRF assimilation methods to assimilate the radar radial velocity and reflectivity data can improve the forecast of precipitation,rain-band areal coverage and the center location and intensity of precipitation.

ANALYSIS OF THE COLD AIR EFFECT ON AN EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENT TRIGGERED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH OF TYPHOON HAIKUI(1211)

Based on intensive automatic weather station data, satellite cloud imagery, NCEP reanalyzed data, and the simulation results from mesoscale numerical models, this study analyzes the characteristics and formation mechanisms of the mesoscale convection system(MCS) during the extreme precipitation event that was triggered by a weakened low-pressure inverted trough of Typhoon Haikui on August 10/2012. The results of this study show that cold air at the rear of a northeastern cold vortex creates thermodynamic conditions favorable to the development of extreme precipitation. The main body of the cold air is northward located so that the cold air invades only the middle layer of the periphery of the inverted trough. Thus, the cold air minimally affects the lower layer, which results in a vertically distributed structure of the temperature advection that augments the formation and development of convective instability stratification. In the middle troposphere, the cold air encounters the convergent, ascending, warm moist air from the low-pressure inverted trough, leading to frontogenesis. The frontogenesis enhances wind convergence which, in turn, further enhances the frontogenesis, and the positive feedback between these two forces augments the development of meso- and small-scale convection systems in the rainstorm region and its vicinity, which strengthens the upward transportation of water vapor from low layers and thickening of water vapor convergence and results in local heavy rains.

STUDY ON SENSITIVITY OF WIND FIELD VARIATION TO STRUCTURE AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE STORMS

In order to study the impacts of wind field variations in the middle and lower troposphere on the development and structure of storms,we carried out numerical experiments on cases of severe convection in the Jianghuai area under the background of cold vortex on April 28,2015.The results show that the structure and development of convective storms are highly sensitive to the changes of wind fields,and the adjustment of wind fields in the middle or lower troposphere will lead to significant changes in the development and structure of storms.When the wind field in the middle or lower troposphere is weakened,the development of convective storms attenuates to some extent compared with that in the control experiment,and the ways of attenuation in the two experiments are different.In the attenuation test of wind field at the middle level,convective storms obviously weaken at all stages in its development,while for the wind field at the low level,the convective storms weaken only in the initial stage of storm.On the contrary,the enhancement of the wind field in the middle or lower troposphere is conducive to the development of convection,especially the enhancement in the middle troposphere.In contrast,the convective storms develop rapidly in this test,as the most intensive one.The wind field variations have significant impacts on the structure and organization of the storm.The enhancement of wind field in the middle troposphere facilitates the intension of the middle-level rotation in convective storm,the reduction of the storm scale,and the organized evolution of convective storms.The strengthening of the wind field in the lower troposphere is conducive to the development of the low-level secondary circulation of the storm and the cyclonic vorticity at the middle and low levels on the inflowing side of the storms.

A METHOD OF RAPID CLASSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS OVER CHINA AND ITS APPLICATION

Using data of tropical cyclones making landfall in China between May and October each year during the1951-2015 period from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration(CMA-STI) Tropical Cyclone(TC) Best Track Dataset, we developed a method of rapid classification of TC tracks based on their average movement velocities and noted three types of tracks: a westward type, a northwestward type, and a northward type. We compared the climate characteristics of the westward and northward types and discuss their corresponding causes. The results show that the westward and northward types account for more than 80% of all TCs making landfall in China.Their climate characteristics, such as the frequency, landfall intensity, duration over land, velocity over land, movement distance over land, and other changes, show both similarities and differences. Both TC types show significant increases in their over-land durations, indicating that the effects of these landfalling TCs are increasing. However, the causes of these two TC types are similar and different in certain respects. The changes in large-scale steering flows have significantly affected the frequencies and over-land velocities of the landfalling TCs of the westward and northward types. In addition, differences between the changes in formation locations of the westward and northward types may lead to significant difference in their landfall intensities.

EXPERIMENTAL APPLICATION OF A THINNING SCHEME FOR THE ASSIMILATION OF SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA IN GRAPES-3DVAR

To reduce the spatial correlation of representation error in observations and computational complexity, we propose a thinning scheme that can extract typical observations within a certain range. This scheme is applied to the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES) with three-dimensional variation(3 DVAR) to study the effect of the thinning radius on the assimilation results. The assimilation experiments indicate that when the ratio of the model resolution to the observational resolution is 1:3, the simulated results for precipitation are relatively good and have a relatively high equitable threat score(ETS). Moreover, the analysis errors in the temperature and the specific humidity are the smallest, the dependence of the norm gradient vector of the objective function on the number of iterations is slow, gentle, and close to 0, and the minimization results in improved conditions.

Simulation of Extreme Updrafts in the Tropical Cyclone Eyewall

Strong vertical motion(>10 m s-1)has profound implications for tropical cyclone(TC)structure changes and intensity.While extreme updrafts in the TC are occasionally observed in real TCs,the associated small-scale features remain unclear.Based on an analysis of the extreme eyewall updrafts in two numerical experiments conducted with the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,in which the large-eddy simulation(LES)technique was used with the finest grid spacings of 37 and 111 m,for the first time this study demonstrates that the simulated extreme updrafts that occur mainly in the enhanced eyewall convection on the down-shear left side are comparable to available observations.The simulated extreme updraft exhibits relatively high frequencies in the lower(750 m),middle(6.5 km)and upper(13 km)troposphere,which are associated with different types of small-scale structures.While the lower-level extreme updraft is mainly related to the tornado-scale vortex,the extreme updraft at upper levels is closely associated with a pair of counter-rotating horizontal rolls oriented generally along the TC tangential flow,which are closely associated with the enhanced eyewall convection.The extreme updraft at middle levels is related to relatively complicated small-scale structures.The study suggests that extreme updrafts can be simulated when the grid spacing is about 100 m or less in the WRF-LES framework,although the simulated small-scale features need further verification in both observation and simulation.

Preface to Special Topic on Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Application in China

China initiated a national carbon trading market in December 2017.Commitments and actions to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions require consistent,reliable and timely information on GHG emissions.GHG monitoring and modeling studies provide GHG emission estimates to evaluate and guide progress towards emission reductions.GHG monitoring has mainly focused on global-scale background networks over the last few decades,while recent efforts have been made on regional and urban scales,such as projects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster,in Paris,Washington-Baltimore.

Refined Spatialization of 10-Day Precipitation in China Based on GPM IMERG Data and Terrain Decomposition Using the BEMD Algorithm

Continuous high spatial-resolution 10-day precipitation data are essential for crop growth services and phenological research.In this study,we first use the bidimensional empirical mode decomposition(BEMD)algorithm to decompose the digital elevation model(DEM)data and obtain high-frequency(OR3),intermediate-frequency(OR5),and low-frequency(OR8)margin terrains.Then,we propose a refined precipitation spatialization model,which uses ground-based meteorological observation data,integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement(GPM IMERG)satellite precipitation products,DEM data,terrain decomposition data,prevailing precipitation direction(PPD)data,and other multisource data,to construct China's high-resolution 10-day precipitation data from2001 to 2018.The decomposition results show mountainous terrain from fine to coarse scales;and the influences of altitude,slope,and aspect on precipitation are better represented in the model after topography is decomposed.Moreover,terrain decomposition data can be added to the model simulation to improve the quality of the simulation product;the simulation quality of the model in summer is better than that in spring and autumn,and is relatively poor in winter;and OR5 and OR8 can be improved in the simulation,with better OR5 and OR8 dynamically selected.In addition,preprocessing the data before precipitation spatialization is particularly important.For example,adding 0.01to the 0 value of precipitation,multiplying the small value of precipitation less than 1 by 10,and performing the normal distributions transform(e.g.,Yeo–Johnson)on the data can improve the simulation quality.

Distributed modeling of monthly air temperatures over the rugged terrain of the Yellow River Basin

Our analyses of the monthly mean air temperature of meteorological stations show that altitude, global solar radiation and surface effective radiation have a significant impact on air temperature. We set up a physically-based empirical model for monthly air temperature simulation. Combined the proposed model with the distributed modeling results of global solar radiation and routine meteorological observation data, we also developed a method for the distributed simulation of monthly air temperatures over rugged terrain. Spatial distribution maps are generated at a resolution of 1 km×1 km for the monthly mean, the monthly mean maximum and the monthly mean minimum air temperatures for the Yellow River Basin. Analysis shows that the simulation results reflect to a considerable extent the macro and local distribution characteristics of air temperature. Cross-validation shows that the proposed model displays good stability with mean absolute bias errors of 0.19°C–0.35°C. Tests carried out on local meteorological station data and case year data show that the model has good spatial and temporal simulation capacity. The proposed model solely uses routine meteorological data and can be applied easily to other regions.

Particle size distribution and characteristics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons during a heavy haze episode in Nanjing,China

A heavy haze episode caused by agricultural burning occurred in Nanjing from November 7 to November 8, 2009. PM10 samples were collected on normal and hazy days from November I to November 14, 2009 at both city and suburban sites of Nanjing. Sixteen PAHs were measured during the day and at night. The results show that the concentrations of the particles were as high as 579.55 and 573.43 μg/m^3 during the haze episode at the city and suburban sites, respectively, 3-4 times higher than those on a normal day. The proportions of fine particles during the haze episode were also higher than those on a normal day. The changes in the concentrations of PAHs were in accordance with the concentrations of the particles. High- molecular-weight PAHs composed approximately 80% of the total PAHs on normal days and during the haze episode. The concentration of PAHs in fine fractions significantly increased during the haze episode, and this increase was most obvious at night at the city site, The proportion of total carcinogenic PAHs in fine particles was relatively high during the haze episode at both sampling sites, particularly at night at the city site.

Seasonal variations and size distributions of water-soluble ions in atmospheric aerosols in Beijing, 2012

The characteristics of water-soluble ions in airborne particulate matter in Beijing were investigated using ion chromatography. The results showed that the total concentrations of ions were 83.7 ± 48.9 μg/m3 in spring, 54.0 ± 17.0 μg/m3 in summer, 54.1 ± 42.9 μg/m3 in autumn, and 88.8 ± 47.7 μg/m3 in winter, respectively. Furthermore, out of all the ions, NO3-,SO42-and NH4＋accounted for 81.2% in spring, 78.5% in summer, 74.6% in autumn, and 76.3%in winter. Mg2＋and Ca2＋were mainly associated with coarse particles, with a peak that ranged from 5.8 to 9.0 μm. Na＋, NH4＋and Cl-had a multi-mode distribution with peaks that ranged from 0.43 to 1.1 μm and 4.7 to 9.0 μm. K＋, NO3-, and SO42-were mainly associated with fine particles, with a peak that ranged from 0.65 to 2.1 μm. The concentrations of Na＋, K＋,Mg2＋, Ca2＋, NH4＋, Cl-, NO3-and SO42-were 2.69, 2.32, 1.01, 4.84, 16.9, 11.8, 42.0, and 44.1 μg/m3 in particulate matter（PM） on foggy days, respectively, which were 1.4 to 7.3 times higher than those on clear days. The concentrations of these ions were 2.40, 1.66, 0.92, 4.95, 17.5,7.00, 32.6, and 34.7 μg/m3 in PM on hazy days, respectively, which were 1.2–5.7 times higher than those on clear days.

A Comparison of De-noising Methods for Differential Phase Shift and Associated Rainfall Estimation

Measured differential phase shift ΦDP is known to be a noisy unstable polarimetric radar variable, such that the quality of ΦDP data has direct impact on specific differential phase shift KDP estimation, and subsequently, the KDP-based rainfall estimation. Over the past decades, many ΦDP de-noising methods have been developed; however, the de-noising effects in these methods and their impact on KDP-based rainfall estimation lack comprehensive comparative analysis. In this study, simulated noisy ΦDP data were generated and de-noised by using several methods such as finite-impulse response（FIR）, Kalman, wavelet,traditional mean, and median filters. The biases were compared between KDP from simulated and observedΦDP radial profiles after de-noising by these methods. The results suggest that the complicated FIR, Kalman,and wavelet methods have a better de-noising effect than the traditional methods. After ΦDP was de-noised,the accuracy of the KDP-based rainfall estimation increased significantly based on the analysis of three actual rainfall events. The improvement in estimation was more obvious when KDP was estimated with ΦDP de-noised by Kalman, FIR, and wavelet methods when the average rainfall was heavier than 5 mm h-1.However, the improved estimation was not significant when the precipitation intensity further increased to a rainfall rate beyond 10 mm h-1. The performance of wavelet analysis was found to be the most stable of these filters.