Land use and land cover change within the Koshi River Basin of the central Himalayas since 1990

Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change.Land use and land cover have changed considerably due to increasing human activities and climate change,which has become the core issue of major international research projects.This study interprets land use and land cover status and the changes within the Koshi River Basin(KRB)using Landsat remote sensing(RS)image data,and employs logistic regression model to analyze the influence of natural and socioeconomic driving forces on major land cover changes.The results showed that the areas of built-up land,bare land and forest in KRB increased from 1990 to 2015,including the largest increases in forest and the highest growth rate in construction land.Areas of glacier,grassland,sparse vegetation,shrub land,cropland,and wetland all decreased over the study period.From the perspective of driving analysis,the role of human activities in land use and land cover change is significant than climate factors.Cropland expansion is the reclamation of cropland by farmers,mainly from early deforestation.However,labor force separation,geological disasters and drought are the main factors of cropland shrinkage.The increase of forest area in India and Nepal was attributed to the government’s forest protection policies,such as Nepal’s community forestry has achieved remarkable results.The expansion and contraction of grassland were both dominated by climatic factors.The probability of grassland expansion increases with temperature and precipitation,while the probability of grassland contraction decreases with temperature and precipitation.

A long-term record(1995-2019)of the dynamics of land desertification in the middle reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River basin derived from Landsat data

Widespread desertification in the middle part of the Yarlung Zangbo River(YZR)basin is threatening the sustain-able development of this region.To capture this process,a method was proposed for large-scale desertification monitoring by using Landsat images from 1995 to 2019.The method used an integrated classification method combined with a hierarchical decision tree and nearest neighbor classifiers.The spatio-temporal dynamics of the desertification pattern were analyzed to assist in the detection of possible driving forces.Using validation samples collected from Google Earth high-resolution images and field investigations,the overall accuracy of the classification in 2019 was 92.3%with a Kappa coefficient of 0.84.The major results were:(1)total sandy land area in 2019 was 734.1 km^(2),which accounted for 3.7%of the study area,prominently distributed along the wide river valleys and inlets of tributaries with a strip and discontinuous pattern.Sandy land tends to be distributed in the southern aspect regions with lower elevations and that are closer to rivers;(2)sandy land areas showed two temporal stages:a gradual increase of 102.4 km^(2)from 1995 to 2015 and a large decrease of 106.8 km^(2)from 2015 to 2019;(3)newly increased sandy land was distributed in the YZR Valley,while the revegetation on sandy land occurred mainly in the Lhasa River basin and some regions in the YZR Valley;and(4)increased sandy land area of 142.1 km^(2)was mainly distributed in the southern band of the two rivers.Correspondingly,revegetation on sandy land was more effective on the northern banks of the river valleys.These findings provide guidance for implementing vegetation recovery on sandy lands and provide important insights for maintaining sustainable development.

An Investigation of Landslide Susceptibility Using Logistic Regression and Statistical Index Methods in Dailekh District, Nepal

Landslide distribution and susceptibility mapping are the fundamental steps for landslide-related hazard and disaster risk management activities, especially in the Himalaya region which has resulted in a great deal of death and damage to property. To better understand the landslide condition in the Nepal Himalaya, we carried out an investigation on the landslide distribution and susceptibility using the landslide inventory data and 12 different contributing factors in the Dailekh district, Western Nepal. Based on the evaluation of the frequency distribution of the landslide, the relationship between the landslide and the various contributing factors was determined.Then, the landslide susceptibility was calculated using logistic regression and statistical index methods along with different topographic(slope, aspect, relative relief, plan curvature, altitude, topographic wetness index) and non-topographic factors(distance from river, normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), distance from road, precipitation, land use and land cover, and geology), and 470(70%) of total 658 landslides. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve analysis using 198(30%) of total landslides showed that the prediction curve rates(area under the curve, AUC) values for two methods(logistic regression and statistical index) were 0.826, and 0.823with success rates of 0.793, and 0.811, respectively. The values of R-Index for the logistic regression and statistical index methods were83.66 and 88.54, respectively, consisting of high susceptible hazard classes. In general, this research concluded that the cohesive and coherent natural interplay of topographic and non-topographic factors strongly affects landslide occurrence, distribution, and susceptibility condition in the Nepal Himalaya region. Furthermore, the reliability of these two methods is verified for landslide susceptibility mapping in Nepal’s central mountain region.

Use of the Max Ent model to predict changes in sloth bear(Melursus ursinus)habitats in the Gandaki River Basin,Nepal

The Gandaki River Basin(GRB),located in the central Himalaya,provides habitats for a large number of important flora and fauna species.The habitats of key protected species have changed over time as a result of climate changes and human activities related to land use change,including the development of roads.This study assessed the present and future distributions of sloth bear(Melursus ursinus)habitats using the maximum entropy(Max Ent)model.Bioclimatic data,a digital elevation model and roads were used as environmental layers to assess current and future distributions of habitat.Results show that the overall habitat within the study area is likely to undergo important changes in the future.Bio 8(the mean temperature of the wettest quarter)and slope were found to be important variables affecting the distribution of the species.The habitats very highly suitable for sloth bears currently cover an area of 148 km^(2) within the GRB.These habitats are predicted to increase by 122 km^(2) more by 2050.Overall,a net change by 680.38 km^(2) was found in the GRB.Conservation measures are necessary for this key protected species and its habitat within the GRB and elsewhere in Nepal.

Spatiotemporal analysis of drought variability based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal

Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its trends in the Koshi River Basin(KRB)in Nepal,using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)over the period from 1987 to 2017.The Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the trends of the SPEI values.The study illustrated the increasing annual and seasonal drought trends in the KRB over the study period.Spatially,the hill region of the KRB showed substantial increasing drought trends at the annual and seasonal scales,especially in summer and winter.The mountain region also showed a significant increasing drought trend in winter.The drought characteristic analysis indicated that the maximum duration,intensity,and severity of drought events were observed in the KRB after 2000.The Terai region presented the highest drought frequency and intensity,while the hill region presented the longest maximum drought duration.Moreover,the spatial extent of drought showed a significant increasing trend in the hill region at the monthly(drought station proportion of 7.6%/10 a in August),seasonal(drought station proportion of 7.2%/10 a in summer),and annual(drought station proportion of 6.7%/10 a)scales.The findings of this study can assist local governments,planners,and project implementers in understanding drought and developing appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with its impacts.

Land use intensity dynamics in the Andhikhola watershed, middle hill of Nepal

Land use intensity is a valuable concept to understand integrated land use system, which is unlike the traditional approach of analysis that often examines one or a few aspects of land use disregarding multidimensionality of the intensification process in the complex land system. Land use intensity is based on an integrative conceptual framework focusing on both inputs to and outputs from the land. Geographers’ non-stationary data-analysis technique is very suitable for most of the spatial data analysis. Our study was carried out in the northeast part of the Andhikhola watershed lying in the Middle Hills of Nepal, where over the last two decades, heavy loss of labor due to outmigration of rural farmers and increasing urbanization in the relatively easy accessible lowland areas has caused agricultural land abandonment. Our intention in this study was to ascertain factors of spatial pattern of intensity dynamism between human and nature relationships in the integrated traditional agricultural system. High resolution aerial photo and multispectral satellite image were used to derive data on land use and land cover. In addition, field verification, information collected from the field and census report were other data sources. Explanatory variables were derived from those digital and analogue data. Ordinary Least Square(OLS) technique was used for filtering of the variables. Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model was used to identify major determining factors of land use intensity dynamics. Moran’s I technique was used for model validation. GWR model was executed to identify the strength of explanatory variables explaining change of land use intensity. Accordingly, 10 variables were identified having the greatest strength to explain land use intensity change in the study area, of which physical variables such as slope gradient, temperature and solar radiation revealed the highest strength followed by variables of accessibility and natural resource. Depopulation in recent decades has been a major driver of land use intensity change but spatial variability of land use intensity was highly controlled by physical suitability, accessibility and availability of natural resources.

A Short Note on Linkage of Climatic Records between Terai and Mid-mountain of Central Nepal

The steep North to South (N-S) gradient and complex topography markssignificant variations in the spatial and temporal patterns of climatic variationsurrounding within a few distances in the Nepal Himalayas. Hence,to validate climatic linkages between the stations under two distinct topographicconditions, the study examines the observational climatic data from106m a.s.l. and 1801m a.s.l., as a representative station from a plain andhilly area. Different statistical tools including Pearson correlation analysisand a best-fit regression model were applied to analyze climate data. Theanalysis of 13129 daily average temperature records and 13147 daily totalprecipitation records showed that the variation in their sum and average ofdaily, five days, ten days, and monthly values between the stations in thedifferent elevations marked significantly.Despite these variations, temperaturerecords are measured to be consistent in different altitudes and stronglycorrelated. The precipitation data showed a comparatively weaker correlation.The coefficients (0.85-1.6) with R2>0.50 in the regression models forthe lower elevation and higher elevation station in the mid-mountain regionexcept for the monsoon season. It indicated a similar fluctuation of temperaturebetween these two stations in the respective area. The strong degreeof association and the change of climatic parameters in different rangeand elevations indicate the possibilities of using climatic data from Terai torepresent the Mid-mountain region of central Nepal.

Efects of Tectonic Setting and Hydraulic Properties on Silent Large‑Scale Landslides: A Case Study of the Zhaobishan Landslide,China

Unlike strong earthquake-triggered or heavy rainfall-triggered landslides,silent large-scale landslides(SLL)occur without signifcant triggering factors and cause unexpected signifcant disaster risks and mass casualties.Understanding the initiation mechanism of SLLs is crucial for risk reduction.In this study,the mechanism of the Zhaobishan SLL was investigated,and the SLL was jointly controlled by weak-soil(fractured rock mass)and strong-water(abundant water replenishment)conditions under the impact of active tectonism and complex hydraulic properties.Strong tectonic uplift,high fault density,and historical earthquakes led to weak-soil conditions conducive to the Zhaobishan SLL.The combined efect of unique lithology,antiform,and cultivated land contributed to the water replenishment characteristics of extensive runof confuence(3.16 times that of the landslide body)and supported long-distance groundwater replenishment,thereby forming strongwater conditions for the landslide.The amplifed seepage amount caused the strength of the soil mass on the sliding surface to decrease to 0.4 times its initial strength,eventually triggering the Zhaobishan SLL,which occurred 4.6 days after the peak rainfall.Moreover,the landslide deposits have accumulated on the semi-diagenetic clay rock,thereby controlling the subsequent recurring debris fows in the Lengzi Gully.To reduce disaster risk of SLL in vulnerable mountainous regions,the water confuence area behind the main scarp of the landslides and the hysteresis characteristics between landslides and peak rainfall should be further considered,and recurring debris fows following massive landslides also should be focused.

Concentration,sources and wet deposition of dissolved nitrogen and organic carbon in the Northern Indo-Gangetic Plain during monsoon

Precipitation represents an important phenomenon for carbon and nitrogen deposition.Here,the concentrations and fluxes of dissolved organic carbon(DOC)and total dissolved nitrogen(TDN)with their potential sources were analyzed in wet precipitation during summer monsoon from the Northern Indo-Gangetic Plain(IGP),important but neglected area.The volume-weighted mean(VWM)concentration of DOC and TDN were 687.04 and 1210.23μg/L,respectively.Similarly,the VWM concentration of major ions were in a sequence of NH_(4)^(+)>Ca^(2+)>SO_(4)^(2-)>Na^(+)>K^(+)>NO_(3)~->Cl~->Mg^(2+)>F~->NO_(2)~-,suggesting NH_(4)^(+)and Ca^(2+)from agricultural activities and crustal dust played a vital role in precipitation chemistry.Moreover,the wet deposition flux of DOC and TDN were 9.95 and 17.06 kg/(ha year),respectively.The wet deposition flux of inorganic nitrogen species such as NH_(4)^(+)-N and NO_(3)^(-)-N were 14.31 and 0.47 kg/(ha year),respectively,demonstrating the strong influence of emission sources and precipitation volume.Source attribution from different analysis suggested the influence of biomass burning on DOC and anthropogenic activities(agriculture,animal husbandry)on nitrogenous species.The air-mass back trajectory analysis indicated the influence of air masses originating from the Bay of Bengal,which possibly carried marine and anthropogenic pollutants along with the biomass burning emissions to the sampling site.This study bridges the data gap in the less studied part of the northern IGP region and provides new information for policy makers to deal with pollution control.

A geo-spatial database about the eco-environment and its key issues in South Asia

The South Asia has high variability in geographical features,climate,andlandscapes.With the rapid economic development and population growth,the increased pressure on natural resources,land degradation,water crisis,and climate change become the common concerns forthe countries in the region.To get a deep and general idea about the land and water natural resources and environment in South Asia,a knowl-edge database was constructed based on the climatic condition,land use/cover,waterresources,water disasters,and geohazards.There sults presented a scientific insight regarding the spatio-temporal changing pattern of the eco-environ mental components in this region.Risk assessments were performed for the floods,droughts,and geohazards which occurred with a high frequency.In general,the big knowledge database established in this study would be helpful to aid the devel-opment of future policies and programs(like the Belt and Road Initiative)for environmental issues adaptation in the region,including initiatives for regional cooperation and capacity building in natural resources and environment management.

尼泊尔柯西河流域土地利用/覆被变化影响下的土壤流失量与输沙量的动态变化

How the dynamics in soil loss(SL) and sedimentation are affected by land use/cover change(LULCC) has long been one of the most important issues in watershed management worldwide, especially in fragile mountainous river basins. This study aimed to investigate the impact of LULCC on SL and sediment export(SE) in eastern regions of the Koshi River basin(KRB), Nepal, from 1990 to 2021. The Random Forest classifier in the Google Earth Engine platform was employed for land use/land cover(LULC) classification, and the Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST) Sediment Delivery Ratio model was used for SL and SE modeling. The results showed that there was a pronounced increase in forest land(4.12%), grassland(2.35%), and shrubland(3.68%) at the expense of agricultural land(10.32%) in KRB over the last three decades. Thus, the mean SL and SE rates decreased by 48% and 60%, respectively, from 1990 to 2021. The conversion of farmland to vegetated lands has greatly contributed to the decrease in SL and SE rates. Furthermore, the rates of SL and SE showed considerable spatiotemporal variations under different LULC types, topographic factors(slope aspect and gradient), and sub-watersheds. The higher rates of SL and SE in the study area were observed mostly in slope gradient classes between 8° and 35°(accounting for 83%–91%) and sunny and semi-sunny slope aspects(SE, S, E, and SW)(accounting for 57%–65%). Although the general mean rate of SL presented a decreasing trend in the study area, the current mean SL rate(23.33 t ha^(-1)yr^(-1)) in 2021 is still far beyond the tolerable SL rate of both the global(10 Mg ha^(-1)yr^(-1)) and the Himalayan region(15 t ha^(-1)yr^(-1)). Therefore, landscape restoration measures should be integrated with other watershed management strategies and upscaled to hotspot areas to regulate basin sediment flux and secure ecosystem service sustainability.

Multi-wing butterfly effects on catastrophic rockslides

The catastrophic rockslide,which frequently triggers numerous severe disasters worldwide,has drawn much attention globally;however,understanding the initiation mechanism of catastrophic rockslides in the absence of typical single triggering factors related to strong seismic activity or torrential precipitation continues to be challenging within the global scientific community.This study aims to determine the mechanism of the three largest catastrophic rockslides in the eastern Tibetan Plateau,Yigong,Xinmo,and Baige,over the past 20 years using field investigation,remote sensing,and runoff analysis.Instead of the conventional driving factors of heavy rainfall and strong earthquakes,the multi-wing butterfly effects(MWBE)of climatic factors and weak earthquakes are for the first time identified as drivers of the catastrophic rockslide disasters.First,strong tectonic uplift,fast fluvial incision,high-density faults,and large regional water confluence formed the slopes in the critical regime,creating the source conditions of rockslide.Second,the MWBE of early dry-heat events and antecedent rainfall,combined with imminent weak earthquakes,initiated rockslide.Third,the delayed amplified runoff moving toward the sliding surface and lowering the strength of the locking-rock segment constituted the fundamental mechanism of the MWBE on rockslide.The catastrophic rockslide was ultimately inferred to be a nonlinear chaotic process;however,prediction and forecasting of rockslide based on the MWBE in the early stages are possible and essential.This finding presents a new perspective concerning forecasting progressive landslides.

Bacterial Diversity in Alpine Lakes: A Review from the Third Pole Region

Microorganisms are unique among all of the living organisms because of their high population size, advanced genetic diversity, short generation time, and quick response to the small change in environmental conditions. Remote alpine lakes of the Third Pole region provide the unique habitat for microorganisms acting as a natural laboratory and offering the information about the ecological roles of microorganisms. Many researchers focused on microbial communities as well as the impact of physicochemical, biological and hydrological parameters in lakes of this region since decades but the comprehensive review focusing on bacterial diversity and the role of environmental parameters still lacks. Here we reviewed bacterial diversity in lakes of the Third Pole region by analyzing 16 S rRNA clone libraries accessed from previous research findings. A total of 5 388 bacterial 16 S rRNA gene sequences were analyzed and classified into different phylogenetic groups. The average relative abundance of dominant taxa includes Betaproteobacteria(19%), Bacteroidetes(18%), Gammaproteobacteria(16%), Actinobacteria(15%), Alphaproteobacteria(14%), Cyanobacteria(7%), and Firmicutes(5%). Several adaptational strategies were adopted by these dominant bacterial groups in order to accommodate in the respective habitat. Nevertheless, lake water properties like temperature, pH, salinity, incident UV radiation, turbidity, and nutrients also played role in bacterial diversity.