Background:Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB)is on the rise in China.This study used a dynamic Markov model to predict the longitudinal trends of MDR-TB in China by 2050 and to assess the effects of alternative ...Background:Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB)is on the rise in China.This study used a dynamic Markov model to predict the longitudinal trends of MDR-TB in China by 2050 and to assess the effects of alternative control measures.Methods:Eight states of tuberculosis transmission were set up in the Markov model using a hypothetical cohort of 100000 people.The prevalence of MDR-TB and bacteriologically confirmed drug-susceptible tuberculosis(DS-TB+)were simulated and MDR-TB was stratified into whether the disease was treated with the recommended regimen or not.Results:Without any intervention changes to current conditions,the prevalence of DS-TB+was projected to decline 67.7%by 2050,decreasing to 20 per 100000 people,whereas that of MDR-TB was expected to triple to 58/100000.Furthermore,86.2%of the MDR-TB cases would be left untreated by the year of 2050.In the case where MDR-TB detection rate reaches 50%or 70%at 5%per year,the decline in prevalence of MDR-TB would be 25.9 and 36.2%respectively.In the case where treatment coverage was improved to 70%or 100%at 5%per year,MDR-TB prevalence in 2050 would decrease by 13.8 and 24.1%,respectively.If both detection rate and treatment coverage reach 70%,the prevalence of MDR-TB by 2050 would be reduced to 28/100000 by a 51.7%reduction.Conclusions:MDR-TB,especially untreated MDR-TB,would rise rapidly under China’s current MDR-TB control strategies.Interventions designed to promote effective detection and treatment of MDR-TB are imperative in the fights against MDR-TB epidemics.展开更多
基金The study was supported by the Swedish Research Council(No.540–2013-8797 to SH)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.81361138019 to BX)joint project(VR-NSFC)the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(No.2018ZX10715012–4 to BX).
文摘Background:Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB)is on the rise in China.This study used a dynamic Markov model to predict the longitudinal trends of MDR-TB in China by 2050 and to assess the effects of alternative control measures.Methods:Eight states of tuberculosis transmission were set up in the Markov model using a hypothetical cohort of 100000 people.The prevalence of MDR-TB and bacteriologically confirmed drug-susceptible tuberculosis(DS-TB+)were simulated and MDR-TB was stratified into whether the disease was treated with the recommended regimen or not.Results:Without any intervention changes to current conditions,the prevalence of DS-TB+was projected to decline 67.7%by 2050,decreasing to 20 per 100000 people,whereas that of MDR-TB was expected to triple to 58/100000.Furthermore,86.2%of the MDR-TB cases would be left untreated by the year of 2050.In the case where MDR-TB detection rate reaches 50%or 70%at 5%per year,the decline in prevalence of MDR-TB would be 25.9 and 36.2%respectively.In the case where treatment coverage was improved to 70%or 100%at 5%per year,MDR-TB prevalence in 2050 would decrease by 13.8 and 24.1%,respectively.If both detection rate and treatment coverage reach 70%,the prevalence of MDR-TB by 2050 would be reduced to 28/100000 by a 51.7%reduction.Conclusions:MDR-TB,especially untreated MDR-TB,would rise rapidly under China’s current MDR-TB control strategies.Interventions designed to promote effective detection and treatment of MDR-TB are imperative in the fights against MDR-TB epidemics.
