Progress in Semi-arid Climate Change Studies in China

This article reviews recent progress in semi-arid climate change research in China.Results indicate that the areas of semiarid regions have increased rapidly during recent years in China,with an increase of 33%during 1994-2008 compared to 1948-62.Studies have found that the expansion rate of semi-arid areas over China is nearly 10 times higher than that of arid and sub-humid areas,and is mainly transformed from sub-humid/humid regions.Meanwhile,the greatest warming during the past 100 years has been observed over semi-arid regions in China,and mainly induced by radiatively forced processes.The intensity of the regional temperature response over semi-arid regions has been amplified by land-atmosphere interactions and human activities.The decadal climate variation in semi-arid regions is modulated by oceanic oscillations,which induce land-sea and north-south thermal contrasts and affect the intensities of westerlies,planetary waves and blocking frequencies.In addition,the drier climates in semi-arid regions across China are also associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon in recent years.Moreover,dust aerosols in semi-arid regions may have altered precipitation by affecting the local energy and hydrological cycles.Finally,semi-arid regions in China are projected to continuously expand in the 21st century,which will increase the risk of desertification in the near future.

Comparison of Dryland Climate Change in Observations and CMIP5 Simulations

A comparison of observations with 20 climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 （CMIP5） revealed that observed dryland expansion amounted to 2.61 × 10^6 km^2 during the 58 years from 1948 to 2005, which was four times higher than that in the simulations （0.55 × 10^6 km^2）. Dryland expansion was accompanied by a decline in aridity index （AI） （drying trend） as a result of decreased precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration across all dryland subtype areas in the observations, especially in the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions. However, the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble （MME） average performed poorly with regard to the decreasing trends of AI and precipitation. By analyzing the factors controlling AI, we found that the overall bias of AI in the simulations, compared with observations, was largely due to limitations in the simulation of precipitation. The simulated precipitation over global drylands was substantially overestimated compared with observations across all subtype areas, and the spatial distribution of precipitation in the MME was largely inconsistent in the African Sahel, East Asia, and eastern Australia, where the semi-arid and dry subhumid regions were mainly located.

Cross-Tropopause Mass Exchange Associated with a Tropopause Fold Event over the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

A springtime tropopause fold event, found to be related to a cold trough intrusion from the north, was detected in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau （TP） based on various observations. A nested high-resolution mesoscale model was employed to investigate the effect of orography on the stratosphere-troposphere exchange. The model was found to be able to capture plausible tropopause fold properties. The propagation of the tropopause fold changed significantly when the terrain height in the model was altered. However, decreasing the terrain height had no significant effect on the morphology of folds. When a fold passed over an elevated surface, a leeside jet stream and a layer of humid air in the middle troposphere tended to develop. This strong leeside descent of air masses and high mid-level potential instability （PI） could give rise to deep upward motions in the leeside and inject tropospheric air into the lower stratosphere. Besides, when the flow encounters an elevated surface, forced lifting together with mid-level PI can trigger deep convective motions on the windward slope. The troposphere to stratosphere transport was found to be persistent and almost stationary over the windward slope of the TP during the evolution of the fold.

A Modeling Study of Effective Radiative Forcing and Climate Response Due to Tropospheric Ozone

This study simulates the effective radiative forcing （ERF） of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol-climate coupled model, BCC_AGCM2.0. I_CUACE/Aero, in combination with OMI （Ozone Monitoring Instrument） satellite ozone data. According to the OMI observations, the global annual mean tropospheric col- umn ozone （TCO） was 33.9 DU in 2013, and the largest TCO was distributed in the belts between 30°N and 45°N and at approximately 30°S; the annual mean TCO was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere; and in boreal summer and autumn, the global mean TCO was higher than in winter and spring. The simulated ERF due to the change in tropospheric ozone concentration from 1850 to 2013 was 0.46 W m-2, thereby causing an increase in the global annual mean surface temperature by 0.36°C, and precipitation by 0.02 mm d-1 （the increase of surface temperature had a significance level above 95%）. The surface temperature was increased more obviously over the high latitudes in both hemispheres, with the maximum exceeding 1.4°C in Siberia. There were opposite changes in precipitation near the equator, with an increase of 0.5 mm d- 1 near the Hawaiian Islands and a decrease of about -0.6 mm d- 1 near the middle of the Indian Ocean.

Early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China over the past 50 years

In this paper, the early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China are investigated. Seven regions are divided on the basis of different climate temperature patterns, obtained through the rotated empirical orthogonal function, and the signal-to-noise temperature ratios for each region are then calculated. Based on the concept of critical slowing down, the temperature data that contain noise in the different regions of China are preprocessed to study the early warning signals of abrupt climate change. First, the Mann-Kendall method is used to identify the instant of abrupt climate change in the temperature data. Second, autocorrelation coefficients that can identify critical slowing down are calculated. The results show that the critical slowing down phenomenon appeared in temperature data about 5-10 years before abrupt climate change occurred, which indicates that the critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change, and that noise has less influence on the detection results of the early warning signals. Accordingly, this demonstrates that the model is reliable in identifying the early warning signals of abrupt climate change based on detecting the critical slowing down phenomenon, which provides an experimental basis for the actual application of the method.

Impact of Dust Aerosol on Glacial–Interglacial Climate

The temperature anomaly and dust concentrations recorded from central Antarctic ice core records display a strong negative correlation. The dust concentration recorded from an ice core in central Antarctica is 50-70 times higher during glacial periods than interglacial periods. This study investigated the impact of dust aerosol on glacial-interglacial climate, using a zonal energy balance model and dust concentration data from an Antarctica ice core. Two important effects of dust, the direct radiative effect and dust-albedo feedback, were considered. On the one hand, the direct radiative effect of dust significantly cooled the climate during the glacial period, with cooling during the last glacial maximum being as much as 2.05℃ in Antarctica. On the other hand, dust deposition onto the ice decreased the surface albedo over Antarctica, leading to increased absorption of solar radiation, inducing a positive feedback that warmed the region by as much as about 0.9℃ during the glacial period. However, cooling by the direct dust effect was found to be the controlling effect for the glacial climate and may be the major influence on the strong negative correlation between temperature and dust concentration during glacial periods.

Representation of the Stratospheric Circulation in CRA-40 Reanalysis:The Arctic Polar Vortex and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset(CRA-40)is evaluated by comparing two widely used reanalysis datasets,ERA-5 and MERRA-2.CRA-40 demonstrates a comparable performance with ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing the winter and spring circulation in the lower and middle Arctic stratosphere.Specifically,differences in the climatological polar-mean temperature and polar night jet among the three reanalyses are within±0.5 K and±0.5 m s^(–1),respectively.The onset dates of the stratospheric sudden warming and stratospheric final warming events at 10 hPa in CRA-40,together with the dynamics and circulation anomalies during the onset process of warming events,are nearly identical to the other two reanalyses with slight differences.By contrast,the CRA-40 dataset demonstrates a deteriorated performance in describing the QBO below 10 hPa compared to the other two reanalysis products,manifested by the larger easterly biases of the QBO index,the remarkably weaker amplitude of the QBO,and the weaker wavelet power of the QBO period.Such pronounced biases are mainly concentrated in the period 1981–98 and largely reduced by at least 39%in 1999–2019.Thus,particular caution is needed in studying the QBO based on CRA-40.All three reanalyses exhibit greater disagreement in the upper stratosphere compared to the lower and middle stratosphere for both the polar region and the tropics.

Preface to the Special Issue on Causes, Impacts, and Predictability of Droughts for the Past, Present, and Future

Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly under abnormal atmospheric conditions(e.g., quasi-stationary high-pressure systems), and can persist for weeks, months, or even years.

Impact of oceans on climate change in drylands

Drylands account for approximately 41% of the global total land area. Significant warming and rare precipitation in drylands result in a fragile ecology and deterioration of the living environment, making it more sensitive to global climate change. As an important regulator of the Earth's climate system, the oceans play a vital role in the process of climate change in drylands. In modern climate change in particular, the impact of marine activities on climate change in drylands cannot be neglected. This paper reviews the characteristics of climate change in drylands over the past 100 years, and summarizes the researches conducted on the impact of marine activities on these changes. The review focuses on the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO), El Ni?o and La Ni?a on climate change in drylands, and introduces the mechanisms by which different oceanic oscillation factors synergistically affect climate change in drylands.Studies have shown that global drylands have experienced a significant intensification in warming in the past 100 years, which shows obvious characteristics of interdecadal dry/wet variations. The characteristics of these changes are closely related to the oscillatory factors of the oceanic interdecadal scale. Different phase combinations of oceanic oscillation factors significantly change the land-sea thermal contrast, which in turn affects the westerly jet, planetary wave and blocking frequency, resulting in changes in the temperature and dry/wet characteristics of drylands. With the intensification of climate change in drylands, the impact of marine activities on these regions will reveal new characteristics in the future, which will increase the uncertainty of future climate change in drylands and intensify the impact of these drylands on global climate.

Estimation of ground heat flux and its impact on the surface energy budget for a semi-arid grassland

Three approaches, i.e., the harmonic analysis （HA） technique, the thermal diffusion equation and correction （TDEC） method, and the calorimetric method used to estimate ground heat flux, are evaluated by using observations from the Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University （SACOL） in July, 2008. The calorimetric method, which involves soil heat flux measurement with an HFP01SC self-calibrating heat flux plate buried at a depth of 5 cm and heat storage in the soil between the plate and the surface, is here called the ITHP approach. The results show good linear relationships between the soil heat fluxes measured with the HFP01SC heat flux plate and those calculated with the HA technique and the TDEC method, respectively, at a depth of 5 cm. The soil heat fluxes calculated with the latter two methods well follow the phase measured with the HFP01SC heat flux plate. The magnitudes of the soil heat flux calculated with the HA technique and the TDEC method are close to each other, and they are about 2 percent and 6 percent larger than the measured soil heat flux, respectively, which mainly occur during the nighttime. Moreover, the ground heat fluxes calculated with the TDEC method and the HA technique are highly correlated with each other （R2= 0.97）, and their difference is only about 1 percent. The TDEC-calculated ground heat flux also has a good linear relationship with the ITttP-calculated ground heat flux （R2 = 0.99）, but their difference is larger （about 9 percent）. Furthermore, compared to the HFP01SC direct measurements at a depth of 5 cm, the ground heat flux calculated with the HA technique, the TDEC method, and the ITHP approach can improve the surface energy budget closure by about 6 percent, 7 percent, and 6 percent at SACOL site, respectively. Therefore, the contribution of ground heat flux to the surface energy budget is very important for the semi-arid grassland over the Loess Plateau in China. Using turbulent heat fluxes with common corrections, soil heat storage between the surface and the heat flux plate can improve the surface energy budget closure by about 6 to 7 percent, resulting in a closure of 82 to 83 percent at the SACOL site.

Comparison of Aerosol Optical Properties over the Semi-arid Region of Loess Plateau between Dusty and Non-dusty Periods in Winter and Spring

Some field experiments of aerosols had been carried out over the arid and semi-arid regions in China over the past 30 years,but there were little learning of the semi-arid region of Loess Plateau.Using Version 2.0 Level 2.0 dataset from the AERONET(Aerosol Robotic Network)Lanzhou_city site,the aerosol optical properties during dusty and non-dusty periods in winter and spring when air pollution frequently occured most frequently were demonstrated.A comparison of the same parameters between Lanzhou and Beijing for spring was also analyzed.Some new information was gained concerning aerosol optical properties over the semi-arid region of Loess Plateau.The results show that the aerosol properties measured during dusty and non-dusty periods are significantly different at Lanzhou,particularly in spring,and also different from those at Beijing.

A Case Study of the Impacts of Dust Aerosols on Surface Atmospheric Variables and Energy Budgets in a Semi-Arid Region of China

The authors present a case study investigating the impacts of dust aerosols on surface atmospheric variables and energy budgets in a semi-arid region of China. Enhanced observational meteorological data, radiative fluxes, near-surface heat fluxes, and concentrations of dust aerosols were collected from Tongyu station, one of the reference sites of the International Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project (CEOP), during a typical dust storm event in June 2006. A comprehensive analysis of these data show that in this semi-arid area, higher wind velocities and a continuously reduced air pressure were identified during the dust storm period. Dust storm events are usually associated with low relative humidity weather conditions, which result in low latent heat flux values. Dust aerosols suspended in the air decrease the net radiation, mainly by reducing the direct solar radiation reaching the land surface. This reduction in net radiation results in a decrease in soil temperatures at a depth of 2 cm. The combination of increased air temperature and decreased soil temperature strengthens the energy exchange of the atmosphere-earth system, increasing the surface sensible heat flux. After the dust storm event, the atmosphere was dominated by higher pressures and was relatively wet and cold. Net radiation and latent heat flux show an evident increase, while the surface sensible heat flux shows a clear decrease.

An overview of the influence of atmospheric circulation on the climate in arid and semi-arid region of Central and East Asia

The arid and semi-arid(ASA) region of Asia occupies a large area in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, of which the main body is the ASA region of Central and East Asia(CEA). In this region, the climate is fragile and the environment is sensitive. The eastern part of the ASA region of CEA is located in the marginal zone of the East Asian monsoon and is jointly influenced by westerly circulation and the monsoon system, while in the western part of the ASA of CEA,the climate is mainly controlled by westerly circulation. To understand and predict the climate over this region, it is necessary to investigate the influence of general circulation on the climate system over the ASA region of CEA. In this paper, recent progress in understanding the relationship between the general circulation and climate change over the ASA region is systematically reviewed. Previous studies have demonstrated that atmospheric circulation represents a significant factor in climate change over the ASA region of CEA. In the years with a strong East Asian summer monsoon, the water vapor flux increases and precipitation is abundant in the southeastern part of Northwest China. The opposite situation occurs in years when the East Asian summer monsoon is weak. With the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon, the climate tends to dry over the semi-arid region located in the monsoon marginal zone. Recently, owing to the strengthening of the South Asian monsoon, more water vapor has been transported to the ASA region of Asia. The Plateau summer monsoon intensity and the precipitation in summer exhibit a significant positive correlation in Central Asia but a negative correlation in North China and Mongolia. A significant positive correlation also exists between the westerly index and the temperature over the arid region of CEA. The change in the westerly circulation may be the main factor affecting precipitation over the arid region of Central Asia.

Mongolia Contributed More than 42%of the Dust Concentrations in Northern China in March and April 2023

Dust storms are one of the most frequent meteorological disasters in China,endangering agricultural production,transportation,air quality,and the safety of people’s lives and property.Against the backdrop of climate change,Mongolia’s contribution to China’s dust cannot be ignored in recent years.In this study,we used the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry(WRF-Chem),along with dynamic dust sources and the HYSPLIT model,to analyze the contributions of different dust sources to dust concentrations in northern China in March and April 2023.The results show that the frequency of dust storms in 2023 was the highest observed in the past decade.Mongolia and the Taklimakan Desert were identified as two main dust sources contributing to northern China.Specifically,Mongolia contributed more than 42%of dust,while the Taklimakan Desert accounted for 26%.A cold high-pressure center,a cold front,and a Mongolian cyclone resulted in the transport of dust aerosols from Mongolia and the Taklimakan Desert to northern China,where they affected most parts of the region.Moreover,two machine learning methods[the XGBoost algorithm and the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique(SMOTE)]were used to forecast the dust storms in March 2023,based on ground observations and WRF-Chem simulations over East Asia.XGBoost-SMOTE performed well in predicting hourly PM10 concentrations in China in March 2023,with a mean absolute error of 33.8μg m−3 and RMSE of 54.2μg m−3.

Variability of Soil Moisture and Its Relationship with Surface Albedo and Soil Thermal Parameters over the Loess Plateau

Data from July 2006 to June 2008 observed at SACOL （Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University, 35.946°N, 104.137°E, elev. 1961 m）, a semi-arid site in Northwest China, are used to study seasonal variability of soil moisture, along with surface albedo and other soil thermal parameters, such as heat capacity, thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity, and their relationships to soil moisture content. The results indicate that surface albedo decreases with increases in soil moisture content, showing a typical exponential relation between the surface albedo and the soil moisture. The heat capacity, the soil thermal diffusivity, and soil thermal conductivity show large variations between Julian day 90-212 and 450-578. The soil thermal conductivity is found to increase as a power function of soil moisture. Soil heat capacity and soil thermal diffusivity increase with increases in soil moisture. The SACOL observed soil moisture are also used to validate the AMSR-E/AQUA retrieved soil moisture and there is good agreement between them. The analysis of the relationship between satellite retrieved soil moisture and precipitation suggests that the variability of soil moisture depends on the variation of precipitation over the Loess Plateau.

Dryland Expansion in Northern China from 1948 to 2008

This study examines the expansion of drylands and regional climate change in northern China by analyzing the variations in aridity index （AI）, surface air temperature （SAT）, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration （PET） from 1948 to 2008. It is found that the drylands of northern China have expanded remarkably in the last 61 years. The area of drylands of the last 15 years （1994--2008） is 0.65 × 106 km2 （12%） larger than that in the period 1948-62. The boundary of drylands has extended eastward over Northeast China by about 2 °of longitude and by about 1° of latitude to the south along the middle- to-lower reaches of the Yellow River. A zonal band of expansion of semi-arid regions has occurred, stretching from western Heilongjiang Province to southern Gansu Province, while shifts to the east of semi-arid regions in dry subhumid regions have also occurred. Results show that the aridity trend of drylands in northern China is highly correlated with the long-term trend of precipitation and PET, and the expansion of semi-arid regions plays a dominant role in the areal extent of drylands, which is nearly 10 times larger than that in arid and subhumid regions.

PM2.5 and tropospheric O_3 in China and an analysis of the impact of pollutant emission control

This study reviewed the status of PM2.5 and tropospheric O3 observations in China(15e55N, 72e136E). Initially, the distribution of tropospheric O3 over the globe and China was determined based on satellite observations made during 2010e2013. The annual mean values were 29.78 DU and 33.97 DU over the globe and China, respectively. The distribution of PM2.5 and seasonal changes in concentrations in China were then simulated using an aerosol chemistry e climate coupled model system, with an annual mean value of 0.51×10-8kg mà3. The contributions from five different aerosols to the simulated PM2.5 concentrations in different seasons were also determined. The relationships among the emissions of aerosols, greenhouse gases and their precursors and radiative forcings were determined with reference to the(IPCC AR5) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the Fifth Assessment Report. From these relationships, the possible effects of controlling O3 precursors and(PM) particulate matter on the climate were considered. The influence of the control of O3 precursors was not totally clear, and reducing emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases and black carbon was considered a secondary measure for short-term(the next 50years) climate-change mitigation. Reducing emissions of CO2 is still the best strategy for meeting the target of a global average rise in surface air temperature of less than 2C. Near- and short-term emission reduction strategies are important for both effective environmental protection and climate-change mitigation.

A Multimodel Ensemble-based Kalman Filter for the Retrieval of Soil Moisture Profiles

With the combination of three land surface models （LSMs） and the ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF）, a multimodel EnKF is proposed in which the multimodel background superensemble error covariance matrix is estimated by two different algorithms： the Simple Model Average （SMA） and the Weighted Average Method （WAM）. The two algorithms are tested and compared in terms of their abilities to retrieve the true soil moisture profile by respectively assimilating both synthetically-generated and actual near-surface soil moisture measurements. The results from the synthetic experiment show that the performances of the SMA and WAM algorithms were quite different. The SMA algorithm did not help to improve the estimates of soil moisture at the deep layers, although its performance was not the worst when compared with the results from the single-model EnKF. On the contrary, the results from the WAM algorithm were better than those from any single-model EnKF. The tested results from assimilating the field measurements show that the performance of the two multimodel EnKF algorithms was very stable compared with the single-model EnKF. Although comparisons could only be made at three shallow layers, on average, the performance of the WAM algorithm was still slightly better than that of the SMA algorithm. As a result, the WAM algorithm should be adopted to approximate the multimodel background superensemble error covariance and hence used to estimate soil moisture states at the relatively deep layers.

Changes in Aridity in Response to the Global Warming Hiatus

The global warming slowdown or warming hiatus, began around the year 2000 and has persisted for nearly 15 years. Most studies have focused on the interpretation of the hiatus in temperature. In this study, changes in a global aridity index （AI） were analyzed by using a newly developed dynamical adjustment method that can successfully identify and separate dynamically induced and radiatively forced aridity changes in the raw data. The AI and Palmer Drought Severity Index produced a wetting zone over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. The dynamical adjustment analysis suggested that this wetting zone occurred in response to the global warming hiatus. The dynamically induced AI （DAI） played a major role in the AI changes during the hiatus period, and its relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）, Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation （AMO） also indicated that different phases of the NAO, PDO, and AMO contributed to dif- ferent performances of the DAI over the Northern Hemisphere. Although the aridity wetting over the mid-to-high lat- itudes may relieve long-term drying in certain regions, the hiatus is temporary, and so is the relief. Accelerated glob- al warming will return when the NAO, PDO, and AMO revert to their opposite phases in the future, and the wetting zone is likely to disappear.

Effect of Mesoscale Land Use Change on Characteristics of Convective Boundary Layer:Semi-Idealized Large Eddy Simulations over Northwest China

Although large-scale topography and land use have been properly considered in weather and climate models, the effect of mesoscale and microscale heterogeneous land use on convective boundary layer(CBL) has not been fully understood yet. In this study, the influence of semi-idealized strip-like patches of oases and deserts, which resemble irrigated land use in Northwest China, on the CBL characteristics, is investigated based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)-large eddy simulation(LES) driven by observed land surface data. The influences of soil water content in oases on aloft CBL flow structure, stability, turbulent kinetic energy(TKE), and vertical fluxes are carefully examined through a group of sensitivity experiments. The results show that secondary circulation(SC)/turbulent organized structures(TOS) is the strongest/weakest when soil water content in oases is close to saturation(e.g.,when the oases are irrigated). With the decrease of soil water content in oases(i.e., after irrigation), SC(TOS) becomes weak(strong) in the lower and middle CBL, the flux induced by SC and TOS becomes small(large), which has a dramatic impact on point measurement of eddy covariance(EC) fluxes. The flux induced by SC and TOS has little influence on EC sensible heat flux, but great influence on EC latent heat flux. Under this circumstance, the area averaged heat flux cannot be represented by point measurement of flux by the EC method, especially just after irrigation in oases. Comparison of imbalance ratio(i.e., contribution of SC and TOS to the total flux) reveals that increased soil moisture in oases leads to a larger imbalance ratio as well as enhanced surface heterogeneity. Moreover,we found that the soil layer configuration at different depths has a negligible impact on the CBL flux properties.