China agricultural outlook for 2015–2024 based on China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System(CAMES)

The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientiifc work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as wel as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES) on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamical y project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The fol owing conclusions are drawn:i) The production of major agricultural products wil continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield. i ) The growth of agricultural consumption wil be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufifciency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. i i) Agricultural trade wil continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk im-ports wil slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.

Spatial-Temporal Changes in Grain Production, Consumption and Driving Mechanism in China

The spatial-temporal patterns of grain production and consumption have an important influence on the effective national grain supply on condition of tight balance in the total grain amount in China. In this paper, we analyze the spatial-temporal pattems of grain production, consumption and the driving mechanism for their evolution processes in China. The results indicate that both gravity centers of grain production and consumption in China moved toward the northern and eastern regions, almost in the same direction. The coordination of grain production and consumption increased slightly from 1995 to 2007 but decreased from 2000 to 2007. There is a spatial difference between the major districts of output increase and the strong growth potential in grain consumption, which indicates an increasing difficulty in improving the regional coordination of grain production and consumption. The movement of the gravity center of grain production is significantly correlated with regional differences in grain production policy, different economic development models, and spatial disparity of land and water resource use. For grain consumption, the main driving factors include rapid urbanization, the upgrade of food consumption structure, and distribution of food industries.

Edible agro-products quality and safety in China

Ensuring an acceptable level of edible agro-products quality and safety is necessary to provide adequate protection for con- sumers. It is the first time that we analyzed the edible agro-products quality and safety issues in the supply chain, including production, processing, circulation, and consumption. The results indicate that the agro-products quality and safety levels improves steadily, and the supervision system and standardization system are both enhanced significantly, however, certain challenges still remain in each stage of the supply chain and the entire supervision process. Finally, five recommendations regarding four aspects （production, processing, circulation, and consumption） are concluded.

Vertical Price Transmission in the China's Layer Industry Chain:an Application of FDL Approach

This paper examines the vertical price relationship between upstream and downstream products in China＇s layer industry chain by estimating elasticity coefficients of the price transmission. We use cointegration tests, error correction models and finite distributed lag models to analyze vertical price shifts between corn, layer feed, egg-laying chicken and egg prices. With monthly data from 1994 to 2010, our results show that various prices in China＇s layer industry chain are well integrated. In addition, our results indicate that both long-run and short-run price relationships between upstream and downstream products in layer industry chain exist and the long-run equilibrium, to a certain extent, may eliminate the short-run dynamics price deviation. We also found that the influence of corn and feed prices on egg prices is still more remarkable than egg-laying chicken prices. Our findings imply that governments should pay more attention to corn and layer feed prices in order to stabilize egg prices under the conditions of market integration.

Comparative Analysis of the Purchase Price of Raw Milk in the World

This paper selects 20 countries from the major dairy producing continents such as Oceania,the Americas,Europe and Asia,for the comparative analysis of the purchase price of raw milk in the world. Based on the summarization of general features of the world raw milk prices,this paper elaborates the fluctuations in the purchase price of raw milk in Oceania,the Americas,Europe and Asia,respectively,and carries out the comparative study of the gap between the domestic purchase price of raw milk and the world purchase price of raw milk.

Study on Food Import in D. R. Congo

Democratic Republic of Congo is a developing country located in Central Africa with a population of over 75 million. Generally, it relies on import in international market for food as it has constantly been experiencing domestic crisis which hinders production. Given the importance of shores price policy and income policy, the government pays meticulous attention to these factors to meet the present and future food security. In order to understand the import behavior related to GDP and international trade prices, the study employs Almost Idea Demand System (AIDS) model using FAO data. The result explains that price effect is more useful to the food security of the country than the income effect, thus this study suggest the government should give priority to policy on price.

Study on Sesame Export for Sudan Based on Gravity Model

This study aimed to investigate the effect of social and economic differences between importer and exporter countries on trade flows of Sesame seed product. The analysis was carried out by estimating the gravity model. The sample covered a total of 14 countries for the period from 1997 to 2009. The results showed that the social and economic differences between countries have a significant and positive or negative effect on Sesame seeds trade. Furthermore, we found that the same language, distance and sesame production in export country have positive effect for the sesame export from Sudan.

The Impact of Poverty Alleviation Policy on Urban Household Demand

Many policies and measures for poverty alleviation have been undertaken by the Chinese government, but few researchers have explored its experience and lessons. This research focuses on household needs like food, clothing, housing, household equipment and supplies, transportation and communication, education and entertainment, healthcare;and also focuses on food items such as grains, meat, eggs, milk, vegetables, fruits and others in urban China. In poor households, the average disposable income per capita is less than or near per capita expenditure;and the Engels coefficient is often over 40%. The data from 1997-2012 in this research is in the provincial level from the Information Website of Development Research Center of the State Council (or “DRCnet”). The authors used the two stage ELES-AIDS (Almost Ideal Demand System) to estimate the price elasticity and expenditure elasticity of the household’s expenditures. According to the results, it is recommended that the government should follow economic law and improves policy efficiency, especially its food policy to alleviate the poverty of low income residents.

Could Rice Yield Change Be Caused by Weather?

Data from 4 counties of Hainan Province of China from 1991-2012 was used to determine the weather impact on rice yields in both early and late rice seasons with multiple regression models. The results show there is normal weather environment for rice in the heading stage for early season rice in May and the milking stage for late season rice in November. For early season rice, more rain in April and June is better for rice to boot and milk, the average temperature has negative effect for the season rice yield;for late season rice, the average temperature have positive effect for the difference between rice yield and the mean of total years but in seedling and booting stage;the rice yield difference between double season is compared and analyzed through the difference of meteorological factors, the results show that the precipitation gap in tillering stage has positive effect to rice yield increasing, but against in booting stage. The relative results should be use to forecast rice yield, and further provide the rice production guiding.