Evaluation and Projection of Temperature Extremes over China Based on CMIP5 Model

Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIP5.Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data,multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-year return values of annual maximum/minimum temperatures.The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach a significance level of 0.10.The spatial correlation coefficient of 20-year return level of annual maximum/minimum temperatures is greater than 0.98.Under the RCP4.5 scenario,more extreme warm events and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble.By the middle of the 21st century,the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times.At the end of the 21st century,the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%,and the 20-year return value will increase 4 C in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperatures.

Surface Air Temperature Simulations over China with CMIP5 and CMIP3

Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were assessed.The observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of CMIP3.The results show that CMIP5 models were able to simulate the observed warming over China from 1906 to 2005(0.84 C per 100 years)with a warming rate of 0.77 C per 100 years based on the multi-model ensemble(MME).The simulations of surface air temperature in the late 20th century were much better than those in the early 20th century,when only two models could reproduce the extreme warming in the 1940s.The simulations for the spatial distribution of the 20-yearmean(1986–2005)surface air temperature over China fit relatively well with the observations.However,underestimations in surface air temperature climatology were still found almost all over China,and the largest cold bias and simulation uncertainty were found in western China.On sub-regional scale,northern China experienced stronger warming than southern China during 1961–1999,for which the CMIP5 MME provided better simulations.With CMIP5 the diference of warming trends in northern and southern China was underestimated.In general,the CMIP5 simulations are obviously improved in comparison with the CMIP3 simulations in terms of the variation in regional mean surface air temperature,the spatial distribution of surface air temperature climatology and the linear trends in surface air temperature all over China.

An ocean current inversion accuracy analysis based on a Doppler spectrum model

Microwave remote sensing is one of the most useful methods for observing the ocean parameters. The Doppler frequency or interferometric phase of the radar echoes can be used for an ocean surface current speed retrieval,which is widely used in spaceborne and airborne radars. While the effect of the ocean currents and waves is interactional. It is impossible to retrieve the ocean surface current speed from Doppler frequency shift directly. In order to study the relationship between the ocean surface current speed and the Doppler frequency shift, a numerical ocean surface Doppler spectrum model is established and validated with a reference. The input parameters of ocean Doppler spectrum include an ocean wave elevation model, a directional distribution function, and wind speed and direction. The suitable ocean wave elevation spectrum and the directional distribution function are selected by comparing the ocean Doppler spectrum in C band with an empirical geophysical model function（CDOP）. What is more, the error sensitivities of ocean surface current speed to the wind speed and direction are analyzed. All these simulations are in Ku band. The simulation results show that the ocean surface current speed error is sensitive to the wind speed and direction errors. With VV polarization, the ocean surface current speed error is about 0.15 m/s when the wind speed error is 2 m/s, and the ocean surface current speed error is smaller than 0.3 m/s when the wind direction error is within 20° in the cross wind direction.