Measurements of ocean wave and current field using dual polarized X-band radar

A new ocean wave and sea surface current monitoring system with horizontally-(HH) and vertically-(VV) polarized X-band radar was developed.Two experiments into the use of the radar system were carried out at two sites,respectively,for calibration process in Zhangzi Island of the Yellow Sea,and for validation in the Yellow Sea and South China Sea.Ocean wave parameters and sea surface current velocities were retrieved from the dual polarized radar image sequences based on an inverse method.The results obtained from dual-polarized radar data sets acquired in Zhangzi Island are compared with those from an ocean directional buoy.The results show that ocean wave parameters and sea surface current velocities retrieved from radar image sets are in a good agreement with those observed by the buoy.In particular,it has been found that the vertically-polarized radar is better than the horizontally-polarized radar in retrieving ocean wave parameters,especially in detecting the significant wave height below 1.0 m.

Influence of Positive and Negative Indian Ocean Dipoles on ENSO via the Indonesian Throughflow: Results from Sensitivity Experiments

The role of the Indonesian Throughflow （ITF） in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program （POP2） ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events, negative sea surface height anomalies （SSHAs） occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling. These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Nifia- like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an E1 Nifio-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITE

A new method for the estimation of oceanic mixed-layer depth using shipboard X-band radar images

Shipboard X-band radar images acquired on 24 June 2009 are used to study nonlinear internal wave characteristics in the northeastern South China Sea.The studied images show three nonlinear internal waves in a packet.A method based on the Radon Transform technique is introduced to calculate internal wave parameters such as the direction of propagation and internal wave velocity from backscatter images.Assuming that the ocean is a two-layer finite depth system,we can derive the mixed-layer depth by applying the internal wave velocity to the mixed-layer depth formula.Results show reasonably good agreement with in-situ thermistor chain and conductivity-temperature-depth data sets.

Application of the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Method to the Predictability Study of the Kuroshio Large Meander

A reduced-gravity barotropic shallow-water model was used to simulate the Kuroshio path variations. The results show that the model was able to capture the essential features of these path variations. We used one simulation of the model as the reference state and investigated the effects of errors in model parameters on the prediction of the transition to the Kuroshio large meander （KLM） state using the conditional nonlinear optimal parameter perturbation （CNOP-P） method. Because of their relatively large uncertainties, three model parameters were considered： the interracial friction coefficient, the wind-stress amplitude, and the lateral friction coefficient. We determined the CNOP-Ps optimized for each of these three parameters independently, and we optimized all three parameters simultaneously using the Spectral Projected Gradient 2 （SPG2） algorithm. Similarly, the impacts caused by errors in initial conditions were examined using the conditional nonlinear optimal initial perturbation （CNOP-I） method. Both the CNOP-I and CNOP-Ps can result in significant prediction errors of the KLM over a lead time of 240 days. But the prediction error caused by CNOP-I is greater than that caused by CNOP-P. The results of this study indicate not only that initial condition errors have greater effects on the prediction of the KLM than errors in model parameters but also that the latter cannot be ignored. Hence, to enhance the forecast skill of the KLM in this model, the initial conditions should first be improved, the model parameters should use the best possible estimates.

The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on the CNOP and on Its Identified Sensitive Areas for Tropical Cyclone Predictions

In this study, the ilnpacts of horizontal resolution on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） and on its identified sensitive areas were investigated for tropical cyclone predictions. Three resolutions, 30 km, 60 km, and 120 kin, were studied for three tropical cyclones, TC Mindulle （2004）, TC Meari （2004）, and TC Matsa （2005）. Results show that CNOP may present different structures with different resolutions, and the major parts of CNOP become increasingly localized with increased horizontal resolution. CNOP produces spiral and baroclinic structures, which partially account for its rapid amplification. The differences in CNOP structures result in different sensitive areas, but there are common areas for the CNOP-identified sensitive areas at various resolutions, and the size of the common areas is different from case to case. Generally, the forecasts benefit more from the reduction of the initial errors in the sensitive areas identified using higher resolutions than those using lower resolutions. However, the largest improvement of the forecast can be obtained at the resolution that is not the highest for some cases. In addition, the sensitive areas identified at lower resolutions are also helpful for improving the forecast with a finer resolution, but the sensitive areas identified at the same resolution as the forecast would be the most beneficial.

The Time and Regime Dependencies of Sensitive Areas for Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using the CNOP Method

This study examines the time and regime dependencies of sensitive areas identified by the conditional nonlinear optiflml perturbation （CNOP） method for forecasts of two typhoons. Typhoon Meari （2004） was weakly nonlinear and is herein referred to as the linear case, while Typhoon Matsa （2005） was strongly nonlinear and is herein referred to as the nonlinear case. In the linear case, the sensitive areas identified for special forecast times when the initial time was fixed resembled those identified for other forecast times. Targeted observations deployed to improve a special time forecast would thus also benefit forecasts at other times. In the nonlinear case, the similarities among the sensitive areas identified for different forecast times were more limited. The deployment of targeted observations in the nonlinear case would therefore need to be adapted to achieve large improvements for different targeted forecasts. For both cases, the closer the forecast time, the higher the similarities of the sensitive areas. When the forecast time was fixed, the sensitive areas in the linear case diverged continuously from the verification area as the forecast period lengthened, while those in the nonlinear case were always located around the initial cyclones. The deployment of targeted observations to improve a special forecast depends strongly on the time of deployment. An examination of the efficiency gained by reducing initial errors within the identified sensitive areas confirmed these results. In general, the greatest improvement in a special time forecast was obtained by identifying the sensitive areas for the corresponding forecast time period.

The Roles of Spatial Locations and Patterns of Initial Errors in the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

In this study, a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones （TCs）, TC Longwang （2005） and TC Sinlaku （2008）, to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts. Specifically, three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）, first singular vector （FSV）, and composite singular vector （CSV） methods. Additionally, random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered. Based on these four types of initial errors and areas, we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors, and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts. Overall, results from the experiments indicate the following： （1） The impact of random errors introduced into the sensitive areas was greater than that of errors themselves fixed in the randomly selected areas. From the perspective of statisticul analysis, and by comparison, the impact of random errors introduced into the CNOP target area was greatest. （2） The initial errors with CNOP, CSV, or FSV patterns were likely to grow faster than random errors. （3） The initial errors with CNOP patterns in the CNOP target areas had the greatest impacts on the final verification forecasts.

The effect of wave-induced radiation stress on storm surge during Typhoon Saomai(2006)

The effects of wave-induced radiation stress on storm surge were simulated during Typhoon Saomai using a wave-current coupled model based on ROMS （Regional Ocean Modeling System） ocean model and SWAN （Simulating Waves Nearshore） wave model. The results show that radiation stress can cause both set-up and set-down in the storm surge. Wave-induced set-up near the coast can be explained by decreasing significant wave heights as the waves propagate shoreward in an approximately uniform direction; wave-induced set-down far from the coast can be explained by the waves propagating in an approximately uniform direction with increasing significant wave heights. The shoreward radiation stress is the essential reason for the wave-induced set-up along the coast. The occurrence of set-down can be also explained by the divergence of the radiation stress. The maximum wave-induced set-up occurs on the right side of the Typhoon path, whereas the maximum wave induced set-down occurs on the left side.

Stream-coordinate structure of oceanic jets based on merged altimeter data

The jet structure of the Southern Ocean front south of Australia is studied in stream-coordinate with a new altimeter product—Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) from AVISO. The accuracy of the ADT data is validated with the mooring data from a two-year subantarctic-front experiment. It is demonstrated that the ADT is consistent with in-situ measurements and captures the meso-scale activity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Stream-coordinate analysis of ADT surface geostrophic flows finds that ACC jets exhibit large spatio-temporal variability and do not correspond to particular streamfunction values. In the circumpolar scope ACC jets display a transient fragmented pattern controlled by topographic features. The poleward shift of jet in streamfunction space, as revealed by a streamwise correlation method, indicates the presence of meridional fluxes of zonal momentum. Such cross-stream eddy fluxes concentrate the broad ACC baroclinic flow into narrow jets. Combined with a recent discovery of gravest empirical mode (GEM) in the thermohaline fields, the study clarifies the interrelationship among front, jet and streamfunction in the Southern Ocean.

Effects of topography on the sub-tidal circulation in the southwestern Huanghai Sea(Yellow Sea)in summer

A nested circulation model system based on the Princeton ocean model （POM） is set up to simulate the currentmeter data from a bottom-mounted Acoustic Doppler Profiler （ADP） deployed at the 30 m depth in the Lunan（South Shandong Province, China） Trough south of the Shandong Peninsula in the summer of 2008, and to study the dynamics of the circulation in the southwestern Huanghai Sea （Yellow Sea）. The model has reproduced well the observed subtidal current at the mooring site. The results of the model simulation suggest that the bottom topography has strong steering effects on the regional circulation in summer. The model simulation shows that the Subei （North Jiangsu Province, China）coastal current flows north- ward in summer, in contrast to the southeastward current in the center of the Lunan Trough measured by the moored currentmeter. The analyses of the model results suggest that the southeastward current at the mooring site in the Lunan Trough is forced by the westward wind-driven current along the Lunan coast, which meets the northward Subei coastal current at the head of the Haizhou Bay to flow along an offshore path in the southeastward direction in the Lunan Trough. Analysis suggests that the Subei coastal current, the Lunan coastal current, and the circulation in the Lunan Trough are independent current systems con- trolled by different dynamics. Therefore, the current measurements in the Lunan Trough cannot be used to represent the Subei coastal current in general.

Response of a Grassland Ecosystem to Climate Change in a Theoretical Model

The response of a grassland ecosystem to climate change is discussed within the context of a theoretical model.An optimization approach,a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameter（CNOP-P） approach,was employed in this study.The CNOP-P,a perturbation of moisture index in the theoretical model,represents a nonlinear climate perturbation.Two kinds of linear climate perturbations were also used to study the response of the grassland ecosystem to different types of climate changes.The results show that the extent of grassland ecosystem variation caused by the CNOP-P-type climate change is greater than that caused by the two linear types of climate change.In addition,the grassland ecosystem affected by the CNOP-P-type climate change evolved into a desert ecosystem,and the two linear types of climate changes failed within a specific amplitude range when the moisture index recovered to its reference state.Therefore,the grassland ecosystem response to climate change was nonlinear.This study yielded similar results for a desert ecosystem seeded with both living and wilted biomass litter.The quantitative analysis performed in this study also accounted for the role of soil moisture in the root zone and the shading effect of wilted biomass on the grassland ecosystem through nonlinear interactions between soil and vegetation.The results of this study imply that the CNOP-P approach is a potentially effective tool for assessing the impact of nonlinear climate change on grassland ecosystems.

Optimal Perturbations Triggering Weather Regime Transitions:Onset of Blocking and Strong Zonal Flow

In this paper, the approach proposed by Mu and Jiang （2008） to obtain the optimal perturbations for triggering blocking （BL） onset is generalized to seek the optimal perturbations triggering onset of the strong zonal flow （SZF） regime. The BL and SZF regimes are characterized by the same dipole-like anomaly pattern superposed on the climatological flow, but with opposite sign. The results show that this method is also superior at finding the initial optimal perturbations triggering onset of the SZF regime, especially in the medium range. Furthermore, by comparing the two kinds of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations （CNOPs） trig-gering onset of BL and SZF regimes, we find that in the linear approximation, there is symmetry in the sensitivities for BL and SZF onset, and the perturbations that optimally trigger onset of BL and SZF regimes at times when linear approximation is valid are also characterized by the same spatial pattern but with opposite sign. Whereas when the optimization time is extended to 6 days, the two kinds of CNOPs lose their out-of-phase behavior. The nonlinearity results in an asymmetry between the sensitivity for BL and SZF onset. Additionally, we find that the optimal perturbations have one common property, which is that the second baroclinic mode contributes more to the initial perturbations while the barotropic mode dominates the final structures.

Optimal nonlinear excitation of decadal variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

Nonlinear development of salinity perturbations in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation(THC) is investigated with a three-dimensional ocean circulation model,using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method.The results show two types of optimal initial perturbations of sea surface salinity,one associated with freshwater and the other with salinity.Both types of perturbations excite decadal variability of the THC.Under the same amplitude of initial perturbation,the decadal variation induced by the freshwater perturbation is much stronger than that by the salinity perturbation,suggesting that the THC is more sensitive to freshwater than salinity perturbation.As the amplitude of initial perturbation increases,the decadal variations become stronger for both perturbations.For salinity perturbations,recovery time of the THC to return to steady state gradually saturates with increasing amplitude,whereas this recovery time increases remarkably for freshwater perturbations.A nonlinear(advective) feedback between density and velocity anomalies is proposed to explain these characteristics of decadal variability excitation.The results are consistent with previous ones from simple box models,and highlight the importance of nonlinear feedback in decadal THC variability.

Three-Dimensional Structure of Optimal Nonlinear Excitation for Decadal Variability of the Thermohaline Circulation

The decadal variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation(THC) is investigated within a three-dimensional ocean circulation model using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method. The results show that the optimal initial perturbations of temperature and salinity exciting the strongest decadal THC variations have similar structures: the perturbations are mainly in the northwestern basin at a depth ranging from 1500 to 3000 m. These temperature and salinity perturbations act as the optimal precursors for future modifications of the THC, highlighting the importance of observations in the northwestern basin to monitor the variations of temperature and salinity at depth. The decadal THC variation in the nonlinear model initialized by the optimal salinity perturbations is much stronger than that caused by the optimal temperature perturbations, indicating that salinity variations might play a relatively important role in exciting the decadal THC variability. Moreover, the decadal THC variations in the tangent linear and nonlinear models show remarkably different characteristics, suggesting the importance of nonlinear processes in the decadal variability of the THC.

Rates and fluxes of centennial-scale carbon storage in the fine-grained sediments from the central South Yellow Sea and Min-Zhe belt, East China Sea

The global carbon cycle has played a key role in mitigating global warming and climate change.Long-term natural and anthropogenic processes influence the composition,sources,burial rates,and fluxes of carbon in sediments on the continental shelf of China.In this study,the rates,fluxes,and amounts of carbon storage at the centennial scale were estimated and demonstrated using the case study of three fine-grained sediment cores from the central South Yellow Sea area(SYSA) and Min-Zhe belt(MZB),East China Sea.Based on the high-resolution temporal sequences of total carbon(TC)and total organic carbon(TOC)contents,we reconstructed the annual variations of historical marine carbon storage,and explored the influence of terrestrial and marine sources on carbon burial at the centennial scale.The estimated TC storage over 100 years was 1.18×10~8 t in the SYSA and 1.45×10~9 t in the MZB.The corrected TOC storage fluxes at the centennial scale ranged from 17 to 28 t/(km^2·a)in the SYSA and from 56 to 148 t/(km^2·a)in the MZB.The decrease of terrestrial materials and the increase of marine primary production suggest that the TOC buried in the sediments in the SYSA and MZB was mainly derived from the marine autogenetic source.In the MZB,two depletion events occurred in TC and TOC storage from 1985 to 1987 and 2003 to 2006,which were coeval with the water impoundment in the Gezhouba and Three Gorges dams,respectively.The high-resolution records of the carbon storage rates and fluxes in the SYSA and MZB reflect the synchronous responses to human activities and provide an important reference for assessing the carbon sequestration capacity of the marginal seas of China.

Inducing Unstable Grassland Equilibrium States Due to Nonlinear Optimal Patterns of Initial and Parameter Perturbations:Theoretical Models

Due to uncertainties in initial conditions and parameters, the stability and uncertainty of grassland ecosystem simulations using ecosystem models are issues of concern. Our objective is to determine the types and patterns of initial and parameter perturbations that yield the greatest instability and uncertainty in simulated grassland ecosystems using theoretical models. We used a nonlinear optimization approach, i.e., a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to initial and parameter perturbations （CNOP） approach, in our work. Numerical results indicated that the CNOP showed a special and nonlinear optimal pattern when the initial state variables and multiple parameters were considered simultaneously. A visibly different complex optimal pattern characterizing the CNOPs was obtained by choosing different combinations of initial state variables and multiple parameters in different physical processes. We propose that the grassland modeled ecosystem caused by the CNOP-type perturbation is unstable and exhibits two aspects： abrupt change and the time needed for the abrupt change from a grassland equilibrium state to a desert equilibrium state when the initial state variables and multiple parameters are considered simultaneously. We compared these findings with results affected by the CNOPs obtained by considering only uncertainties in initial state variables and in a single parameter. The numerical results imply that the nonlinear optimal pattern of initial perturbations and parameter perturbations, especially for more parameters or when special parameters are involved, plays a key role in determining stabilities and uncertainties associated with a simulated or predicted grassland ecosystem.

Northward expansion of the western Pacific Warm Pool in late 1990s and early 2000s

Based on 48-year (1958-2006) ocean reanalysis data of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation and 23-year (1984-2006) global ocean-surface heat flux products developed by the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Heat Flux Project, meridional variation of the western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) is addressed. The results show that there is a significant expansion of the northern edge of the WPWP in the late 1990s and early 2000s. This variation is mainly within 120°E-160°E by 8°N-20°N, we define this region (120°E-160°E by 8°N-20°N) as the core region. Furthermore, analyses on upper ocean heat budget show that the short wave radiation plays a key role in the northward expansion of the northern edge of the WPWP in the core region. It is proved that the northward expansion may be caused by the change of the mixed layer which became shallower in 1994-2006 compared with 1984-1993 in the study region. The short wave radiation flux distribution within the shallower mixed layer leads to a positive anomaly in seawater temperature, promoting the northward expansion of the WPWP.

Variation in joint mode of the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean thermodynamic anomaly

Previous research has defined the index of the Indian-Pacific thermodynamic anomaly joint mode (IPTAJM) and suggested that the winter IPTAJM has an important impact on summer rainfall over China. However, the possible causes for the interannual and decadal variability of the IPTAJM are still unclear. Therefore, this work investigates zonal displacements of both the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIOWP). The relationships between the WPWP and the EIOWP and the IPTAJM are each examined, and then the impacts of the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans on the IPTAJM are studied. The WPWP eastern edge anomaly displays significant interannual and decadal variability and experienced a regime shift in about 1976 and 1998, whereas the EIOWP western edge exhibits only distinct interannual variability. The decadal variability of the IPTAJM may be mainly caused by both the zonal migration of the WPWP and the 850 hPa zonal wind anomaly over the central equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, the zonal migrations of both the WPWP and the EIOWP and the zonal wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may be all responsible for the interannual variability of the IPTAJM.

Using the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Model to Understand the Different Responses of Three Woody Plants to Land Use in China

In this study, the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to initial perturbation （CNOP-I） was employed to investigate the maximum variations in plant amount for three main woody plants （a temperate broadleaved evergreen, a temperate broadleaved summergreen, and a boreal needleleaved evergreen） in China. The investigation was conducted within a certain range of land use intensity using a state-of-the-art Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model （LPJ DGVM）. CNOP-I represents a class of deforestation and can be considered a type of land use with respect to the initial perturbation. When deforestation denoted by the CNOP-I has the same intensity for all three plants, the variation in plant amount of the boreal needleleaved evergreen in northern China is greater than the variation in plant amount of both the temperate broadleaved evergreen and temperate broadleaved summergreen in southern China. As deforestation intensity increases, the plant amount variation in the three woody plant functional types carbon changes, in a nonlinear fashion. The impact of land use on plant functional types is minor because the interaction between climate condition and land use is not considered in the LPJ model. Finally, the different impacts of deforestation on net primary production of the three plant functional types were analyzed by modeling gross primary production and autotrophic respiration. Our results suggest that the CNOP-I approach is a useful tool for exploring the nonlinear and different responses of terrestrial ecosystems to land use.

Formation of an anticyclonic eddy and the mechanism involved: a case study using cruise data from the northern South China Sea

Data from satellite altimetry and in situ observations together with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) reanalysis data were used to investigate the mechanism and formation of an anticyclonic eddy in the northeastern South China Sea (SCS). Analysis of water mass using cruise data indicated that the water captured in the eddy diff ers from those in the SCS, the Kuroshio intrusion, and the eddy-forming region. Data from sea surface height (SSH) and sea level anomaly (SLA) indicate that the eddy formed due both to the Kuroshio intrusion and the local circulation in the SCS. The Kuroshio intrusion is present at the start of the eddy growth (March 5-9) before Kuroshio leaps the Luzon Strait. The eddy then becomes larger and stronger in the absence of the Kuroshio intrusion. From the eddy budget of the HYCOM reanalysis data, the formation of the eddy goes in three steps. By the third step, the eddy had become aff ected by variations of local SCS circulation, which is more strongly than in the fi rst step in which it is aff ected more by the Kuroshio intrusion. The variability of the temperature and salinity inside the eddy provide a support to this conclusion. The water in the SCS intruded into the eddy from the southeast, which decrease the salinity gradually in the southern part of the eddy during the growth period.