Analyses of Extreme Climate Events over China Based on CMIP5 Historical and Future Simulations

Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models, cli- matic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. In observations, frost days （FD） and low-temperature threshold days （TN10P） show a de- creasing trend, and summer days （SU）, high-temperature threshold days （TX90P）, heavy precipitation days （R20）, and the contribution of heavy precipitation days （P95T） show an increasing trend. Most models are able to simulate the main char- acteristics of most extreme indices. In particular, the mean FD and TX90P are reproduced the best, and the basic trends of FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P are represented. For the FD and SU indexes, most models show good ability in capturing the spatial differences between the mean state of the periods 1986--2005 and 1961-80; however, for other indices, the simulation abilities for spatial disparity are less satisfactory and need to be improved. Under the high emissions scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of the multi-model ensemble （MME） for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, and 2.9 days, and 9.9%, respectively; and the spatial change scope for each index is consistent with the emissions intensity. Due to the complexities of physical process pararneterizations and the limitation of forcing data, great uncertainty still exists with respect to the simulation of climatic extremes.

Evaluating the contributions of urban surface expansion to regional warming in Shanghai using different methods to calculate the daily mean temperature

The contributions of urban surface expansion to regional warming over subregions of Shanghai and Shanghai as a whole using different methods to calculate the daily mean surface temperature(SAT),including the averages of four daily time-records(0000,0600,1200,and 1800 UTC;T4),eight daily time-records(0000,0300,0600,0900,1200,1500,1800,and 2100 UTC;T8),and the averages of the SAT maximum(Tmax)and minimum(Tmin),Txn,were compared based on simulated results using nested numerical intergrations with the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model,where only the satellite-retrieved urban surface distributions differed between two numerical experiments.The contributions from urban-related warming expressed similar intensities when using T8 and Txn,while the smallest values occurred when using T4 over different subregions of Shanghai(with the exception of areas that were defined as urban for both time periods(U2U))and Shanghai as a whole.Similar values for the changing trends could be detected over different subregions when no urban surface expansion(EX1)was detected for both T4 and Txn.The corresponding values increased under urban surface expansion(EX2)and varied over different subregions,revealing much stronger intensities over urban-surface expansion areas;the weakest intensities occurred over U2U areas.The increasing trends for EX2 and relative contributions when using T4 were smaller than those when using Txn,with the exception of those over U2U areas,which could be explained by the changing trends in Tmax and Tmin due to urban surface expansion,especially during intense urban expansion periods.

Two Types of Flash Drought and Their Connections with Seasonal Drought

Flash drought is a rapidly intensifying drought with abnormally high temperature,which has greatly threatened crop yields and water supply,and aroused wide public concern in a warming climate.However,the preferable hydrometeorological conditions for flash drought and its association with conventional drought at longer time scales remain unclear.Here,we investigate two types of flash drought over China:one is high-temperature driven(Type Ⅰ),while the other is water-deficit driven(Type Ⅱ).Results show that the frequencies of the two types of flash drought averaged over China during the growing season are comparable.Type I flash drought tends to occur over southern China,where moisture supply is sufficient,while Type Ⅱ is more likely to occur over semi-arid regions such as northern China.Both types of flash drought increase significantly(p<0.01)during 1979–2010,with a doubled rise in Type Ⅰ as compared with Type Ⅱ.Composite analysis shows that high temperature quickly increases evapotranspiration(ET)and reduces soil moisture from two pentads before the onset of Type Ⅰ flash drought.In contrast,there are larger soil moisture deficits two pentads before the onset of Type Ⅱ flash drought,leading to a decrease in ET and increase in temperature.For flash drought associated with seasonal drought,there is a greater likelihood of occurrence during the onset and recovery phases of seasonal drought,suggesting perfect conditions for flash drought during transition periods.This study provides a basis for the early warning of flash drought by connecting multiscale drought phenomena.

Trends in the Different Grades of Precipitation over South China during 1960–2010 and the Possible Link with Anthropogenic Aerosols

Using observed daily precipitation data to classify five levels of rainy days by strength in South China （SC）,with an emphasis on the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region,the spatiotemporal variation of different grades of precipitation during the period 1960-2010 was analyzed and the possible link with anthropogenic aerosols examined.Statistical analysis showed that drizzle and small precipitation has significantly decreased,whereas medium to heavy precipitation has increased slightly over the past 50 years （although not statistically significant）.Further data analysis suggested that the decline in drizzle and small precipitation probably has a strong link to increased concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols produced by large-scale human activities related to the rapid socioeconomic development of the PRD region.These aerosols may also have led to the obvious decreasing trend in horizontal visibility and sunshine duration in SC,which is statistically significant according to the t-test.

Sensitivity of Potential Evapotranspiration Estimation to the Thornthwaite and Penman–Monteith Methods in the Study of Global Drylands

Drylands are among those regions most sensitive to climate and environmental changes and human-induced perturbations.The most widely accepted definition of the term dryland is a ratio,called the Surface Wetness Index(SWI),of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration(PET)being below 0.65.PET is commonly estimated using the Thornthwaite(PET Th)and Penman–Monteith equations(PET PM).The present study compared spatiotemporal characteristics of global drylands based on the SWI with PET Th and PET PM.Results showed vast differences between PET Th and PET PM;however,the SWI derived from the two kinds of PET showed broadly similar characteristics in the interdecadal variability of global and continental drylands,except in North America,with high correlation coefficients ranging from 0.58 to 0.89.It was found that,during 1901–2014,global hyper-arid and semi-arid regions expanded,arid and dry sub-humid regions contracted,and drylands underwent interdecadal fluctuation.This was because precipitation variations made major contributions,whereas PET changes contributed to a much lesser degree.However,distinct differences in the interdecadal variability of semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions were found.This indicated that the influence of PET changes was comparable to that of precipitation variations in the global dry–wet transition zone.Additionally,the contribution of PET changes to the variations in global and continental drylands gradually enhanced with global warming,and the Thornthwaite method was found to be increasingly less applicable under climate change.

Impact of Urbanization on Low-Temperature Precipitation in Beijing during 1960–2008

Daily precipitation and temperature records at 13 stations for the period 1960-2008 were analyzed to identify climatic change and possible effects of urbanization on low-temperature precipitation [LTP, precipitation of ≥ 0.1 mm d^-1 occurring under a daily minimum temperature （Tmin） of ≤ 0℃] in the greater Beijing region （B JR）, where a rapid process of urbaniza tion has taken place over the last few decades. The paper provides a climatological overview of LTP in B JR. LTP contributes 61.7% to the total amount of precipitation in B JR in the cold season （November-March）. There is a slight increasing trend [1.22 mm （10 yr）^-1] in the amount of total precipitation for the cold season during 1960-2008. In contrast, the amount of LTP decreases by 0.6 mm （10 yr）^-1. The warming rate of Train in B JR is 0.66℃ （10 yr）^-1. Correspondingly, the frequency of LTP decreases with increasing Tmin by -0.67 times per ℃. The seasonal frequency and amount of LTP in southeast B JR （mostly urban sites） are 17%-20% less than those in the northwestern （rural and montane sites）. The intensity of LTP for the urban sites and northeastern B JR exhibited significant enhancing trends [0.18 and 0.15 mm d^- 1 （10 yr）^- 1, respectively]. The frequency of slight LTP （〈0.2 mm d^-1） significantly decreased throughout B JR [by about -15.74% （10 yr）^-1 in the urban area and northeast B JR], while the contribution of the two heaviest LTP events to total LTP amount significantly increased by 3.2% （10 yr） ^-1.

Precipitation as a control of vegetation phenology for temperate steppes in China

Using the NDVI ratio method, the authors extracted phenological parameters from NOAA-AVHRR NDVI time-series data （1982-2008）. The start of the growing season （SOS） and the date of maximum NDVI （Peak-t） correlated significantly with the mean annual precipitation along regional gradients of the steppes. Along the south transect （located at a lower latitude with a higher annual mean temperature） there was a positive correlation between the end of the growing season （EOS） and the mean annual precipitation along precipitation gradients （R2 = 0.709, p 〈 0.0001）. However, along the north transect （located at higher latitude with lower annual mean temperature）, the EOS was slightly negatively related with the mean annual precipitation （R2 = 0.179, p 〈 0.1）. There was positive correlation between the length of the growing season and the annual precipitation along two transects （R2 = 0.876, p 〈 0.0001 for the south transect; R2 = 0.290, p 〈 0.01 for the north transect）. Thus, for the Inner Mongolian steppe, it is precipitation rather than temperature that determines the date of the SOS.

Responses of terrestrial water cycle components to afforestation within and around the Yellow River basin

Reforestation has attracted worldwide attention because of its multiple environmental benefits,but its impact on water resources is complicated and still controversial. In this study, the authors conducted numerical experiments within and around the Yellow River basin under the Grain-forGreen project using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The results showed that the terrestrial water cycle process was sensitive to land use/cover change in the study region. Under the increase of mixed forests within and below the basin, the basin-averaged precipitation and evaporation increased by 223.17 and 223.88 mm respectively, but the surface runoff decreased by 2.22 mm from 2006 to 2010. In other words, the forest-induced increase in evaporation exceeded that of precipitation along with decreased surface runoff. Importantly, the afforestation effects on water resources seemed to enhance with time, and the effects of the same vegetation change were different in dry and wet years with different precipitation amounts(i.e. different atmospheric circulation background). It should be noted that it is difficult to obtain one product that can explicitly reflect the spatial distribution of actual land cover change promoted by the Grain-for-Green project in the Yellow River basin, which is an important obstacle to clearly identify the reforestation impacts. A land cover dataset derived from advantages of multiple sets of data therefore needs to be proposed.

Intercomparison of different physics schemes in the WRF model over the Asian summer monsoon region

Enhancing the ability of the WRF model in simulating a large area covering the West Pacific Ocean, China's Mainland, and the East Indian Ocean is very important to improve prediction of the East Asian monsoon climate. The objective of this study is to identify a reasonable configuration of physical parameterization schemes to simulate the precipitation and temperature in this large area. The Mellor-Yamada-Janjic （MYJ） and Yonsei University （YSU） PBL schemes, the WSM3 and WSM5 microphysics schemes, and the Betts-Miller-Janjic （BMJ） and Tiedtke cumulus schemes are compared through simulation of the regional climate of summer 2008. All cases exhibit a similar spatial distribution of temperature as observed, and the spatial correlation coefficients are all higher than 0.95. The cases combining MY J, WSM3/WSM5, and BMJ have the smallest biases of temperature. The choice of PBL scheme has a significant effect on precipitation in such a large area. The cases with MYJ reproduce a better distribution of rain belts, while YSU strongly overestimates the precipitation intensity. The precipitation simulated using WSM3 is similar to that using WSM5. The BMJ cumulus scheme combined with the MYJ PBL scheme has a smaller bias of precipitation. However, the Tiedtke scheme reproduces the precipitation pattern better, especially over the ITCZ.

Understanding the Soil Temperature Variability at Different Depths:Effects of Surface Air Temperature,Snow Cover,and the Soil Memory

The soil temperature(ST)is closely related to the surface air temperature(AT),but their coupling may be affected by other factors.In this study,significant effects of the AT on the underlying ST were found,and the time taken to propagate downward to 320 cm can be up to 10 months.Besides the AT,the ST is also affected by memory effects-namely,its prior thermal conditions.At deeper depth(i.e.,320 cm),the effects of the AT from a particular season may be exceeded by the soil memory effects from the last season.At shallower layers(i.e.,<80 cm),the effects of the AT may be blocked by the snow cover,resulting in a poorly synchronous correlation between the AT and the ST.In northeastern China,this snow cover blockage mainly occurs in winter and then vanishes in the subsequent spring.Due to the thermal insulation effect of the snow cover,the winter ST at layers above 80 cm in northeastern China were found to continue to increase even during the recent global warming hiatus period.These findings may be instructive for better understanding ST variations,as well as land−atmosphere interactions.

Short-term wind speed forecasting bias correction in the Hangzhou area of China based on a machine learning model

准确的风速预报具有重要的社会意义.在本研究中,使用名为WSFBC-XGB的XGBoost机器学习模型对中国浙江省杭州市自动气象站的短期风速预报误差进行校正.WSFBC-XGB使用本地数值天气预报系统的产品作为输入.将WSFBC-XGB校正的结果与传统MOS(模型输出统计)方法校正的结果进行了比较.结果表明:WSFBC-XGB预报风速的均方根误差(RMSE)/准确率(ACC)分别比NWP和MOS降低/提高了26.1%和7.64%/35.6%和7.02%;对于90%的站点WSFBC-XGB的RMSE/ACC均小于/高于MOS.此外,采用平均杂质减少法对WSFBC-XGB的可解释性进行分析,以帮助用户增加对模型的信任.结果表明:10米风速(47.35%),10米风的经向分量(12.73%),日循环(9.97%)和1000百帕风的经向分量(7.45%)是前4个最重要的特征.WSFBC-XGB模型将有助于提高短期风速预报的准确性,为大型户外活动提供支持.

Impact of Kuroshio Extension dipole mode variability on the North Pacific storm track

An index of a large-scale Kuroshio Extension（KE） sea surface height dipole（KED） mode is constructed using satellite altimeter sea level anomaly observations from January 1993 to December 2015 based on previous work of the second author. It is found that the KED mode that undergoes a decadal variation from a negative phase（a positive-over-negative dipole, KED.） to a positive phase（a negative-over-positive dipole, KED＋） can affect the variability of the oceanic SST front and the North Pacific storm track. The results show that the oceanic SST fronts in the north of the KE region and in the KE region — referred to as the NSST and KSST fronts, respectively — are closely correlated with the KED mode. In the NSST front region, the SST front is stronger for KED. than for KED＋, and the opposite is the case in the KSST region. It is further revealed that the decadal phase transition of the KED mode can change the location and strength of the North Pacific storm track, with the North Pacific storm track being slightly weaker and moving more northwards as a whole during the KED. mode than during the KED＋ mode. The westerly wind associated with the storm track on the downstream side of the KE region intensifies and shifts northwards under KED. compared to KED＋.Furthermore, the transition of the KED mode gives rise to changes in the North Pacific storm track by changing the NSST and KSST fronts and meridional heat flux.

Long-Term Trends in the Probability of Different Grades of Haze Days in China from 1960 to 2013

The number of haze days and daily visibility data for 543 stations in China were used to define the probabilities of four grades of haze days:slight haze(SLH)days;light haze(LIH)days;moderate haze(MOH)days;and severe haze(SEH)days.The change trends of the four grades of haze were investigated and the following results were obtained.The highest probability was obtained for SLH days(95.138%),which showed a decreasing trend over the last54 years with the fastest rate of decrease of-0.903%·(10 years)-1 and a trend coefficient of-0.699,passing the 99.9%confidence level.The probabilities of LIH and MOH days increased steadily,whereas the probability of SEH days showed a slight downward trend during that period.The increasing probability of SLH days was mainly distributed to the east of 105°E and the south of 42°N and the highest value of the trend coefficient was located in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta regions.The increasing probability of LIH days was mainly distributed in eastern China and the southeastern coastal region.The probabilities of MOH and SEH days was similar to the probability of LIH days.An analysis of the four grades of haze days in cities with different sizes suggested that the probability of SLH days in large cities and medium cities clearly decreased during the last 54 years.However,the probabilities of LIH days was<10%and increased steadily.The probability of MOH days showed a clear interdecadal fluctuation and the probability of SEH days showed a weak upward trend.The probability of SLH days in small cities within 0.8°of large or medium cities decreased steadily,but the probability of LIH and MOH days clearly increased,which might be attributed to the impact of large and medium cities.The probability of SLH days in small cities>1.5°from a large or medium city showed an increasing trend and reached 100%after 1990;the probability of the other three grades was small and decreased significantly.

Comparative analysis of interdecadal precipitation variability over central North China and sub Saharan Africa

The interdecadal variability of precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and central North China (CNC) is examined and compared in this study. Previous studies have found that the two regions have similar interdecadal dry–wet evolution in the past 100 years. The results show obvious decadal precipitation fluctuations in the two regions. In CNC, a persistent negative precipitation anomaly is detected from the early 1970s to the 2000s. In SSA, a negative precipitation anomaly is apparent since the late 1970s, while a distinct upward trend is found since the 1990s although the precipitation anomaly is still negative. Significant correlation is found between the decadal precipitation anomalies in SSA and the SST modes (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)), as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while in CNC the decadal precipitation is influenced by the NAO and PDO. The EOF results show that the total explained variance of the first four EOFs in SSA is smaller than that of CNC. The fourth and third modes in SSA are significantly associated with the AMO and PDO respectively, while the first, third, and fourth modes are significantly associated with the NAO. The first mode in CNC is significantly associated with the NAO. The first mode of the precipitation anomaly in SSA fluctuates out of phase with that in CNC, while in-phase changes are apparent among the third and the fourth modes.

Zonal Mean Mode of Global Warming over the Past 50 Years

Zonal mean annual temperature trends were estimated using four reanalysis and three analysis grid datasets. The trends over land and for the entire globe were estimated from 1958-2001 and 1979-2007, respectively. Estimates of temperature trends over land from Climate Research Unit （CRU） analysis data indicate more intense wanning moving northward, at a rate of about 3.5℃ per century at 65°N, then declining further to the north. CRU estimates indicated dramatic warming over the latitudes of the Antarctic Peninsula, with a localized cooling trend at 45°S. A global estimate was conducted by comparing estimates of the reanalysis datasets. Temperature distribution trends of the reanalysis data were similar to those generated by land observations but with large bias in the Polar Regions. The bias could be reduced by comparing these estimates with those from the analysis data at high latitudes. Extreme warming trends were esti- mated at rates of 2.9℃-3.5℃ per century in the Arctic and 3.2℃-4.7℃ per century in the Antarctic for 1958-2001. Surface warming was even more intense in the Northern Hemisphere for 1979-2007, with extreme arctic warming rates ranging from 8.5℃-8.9℃ per century, as estimated by the analysis and reanalysis datasets. Trends over Antarctica for this period were contradictory, as Japan Meteorological Agency （JMA） reanalysis （JRA-25） indicated a cooling trend at about -7℃ per century, while other reanalysis datasets showed sharp warming over the continent.

Satellite remote sensing reveals overwhelming recovery of forest from disturbances in Asia

Forest ecosystems play key roles in mitigating human-induced climate change through enhanced carbon uptake;however,frequently occurring climate extremes and human activities have considerably threatened the stability of forests.At the same time,detailed accounts of disturbances and forest responses are not yet well quantified in Asia.This study employed the Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend method-an abrupt-change detection method-to analyze the Enhanced Vegetation Index time series in East Asia,South Asia,and Southeast Asia.This approach allowed us to detect forest disturbance and quantify the resilience after disturbance.Results showed that 20%of forests experienced disturbance with an increasing trend from 2000 to 2022,and Southeast Asian countries were more severely affected by disturbances.Specifically,95%of forests had robust resilience and could recover from disturbance within a few decades.The resilience of forests suffering from greater magnitude of disturbance tended to be stronger than forests with lower disturbance magnitude.In summary,this study investigated the resilience of forests across the low and middle latitudes of Asia over the past two decades.The authors found that most forests exhibited good resilience after disturbance and about two-thirds had recovered to a better state in 2022.The findings of this study underscore the complex relationship between disturbance and resilience,contributing to comprehension of forest resilience through satellite remote sensing.

A Brief Introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and Its Earth Surface Temperature Simulations

Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper, a new human--earth system model, BNU- HESM1.0, constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model, is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that, compared to observation, BNU-HESM1.0 underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965-2005, due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However, the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation, resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty, so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM 1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However, the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.

A New Approach for Parameter Optimization in Land Surface Model

In this study,a new parameter optimization method was used to investigate the expansion of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） in a land surface model （LSM） using long-term enhanced field observations at Tongyu station in Jilin Province,China,combined with a sophisticated LSM （common land model,CoLM）.Tongyu station is a reference site of the international Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project （CEOP） that has studied semiarid regions that have undergone desertification,salination,and degradation since late 1960s.In this study,three key land-surface parameters,namely,soil color,proportion of sand or clay in soil,and leaf-area index were chosen as parameters to be optimized.Our study comprised three experiments：First,a single-parameter optimization was performed,while the second and third experiments performed triple-and six-parameter optimizations,respectively.Notable improvements in simulating sensible heat flux （SH）,latent heat flux （LH）,soil temperature （TS）,and moisture （MS） at shallow layers were achieved using the optimized parameters.The multiple-parameter optimization experiments performed better than the single-parameter experminent.All results demonstrate that the CNOP method can be used to optimize expanded parameters in an LSM.Moreover,clear mathematical meaning,simple design structure,and rapid computability give this method great potential for further application to parameter optimization in LSMs.

Projected near-surface wind speed and wind energy over Central Asia using dynamical downscaling with bias-corrected global climate models

Wind energy development in Central Asia can help alleviate drought and fragile ecosystems.Nevertheless,current studies mainly used the global climate models(GCMs)to project wind speed and energy.The simulated biases in GCMs remain prominent,which induce a large uncertainty in the projected results.To reduce the uncertainties of projected near-surface wind speed(NSW)and better serve the wind energy development in Central Asia,the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with bias-corrected GCMs was employed.Compared with the outputs of GCMs,dynamical downscaling acquired using the WRF model can better capture the high-and low-value centres of NSWS,especially those of Central Asia's mountains.Meanwhile,the simulated NSWS bias was also reduced.For future changes in wind speed and wind energy,under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(RCP4.5)scenario,NSWS during 2031-2050 is projected to decrease compared with that in 19862005.The magnitude of NSwS reduction during 2031-2050 willreach 0.1 m s^(-1).and the maximum reduction is projected to occur over the central and western regions(>0.2 m s^(-1)).Furthermore,future wind power density(WPD)can reveal nonstationarity and strong volatility,although a downward trend is expected during 2031-2050.In addition,the higher frequency of wind speeds at the turbine hub height exceeding 3.0 m s^(-1)can render the plain regions more suitable for wind energy development than the mountains from 2031 to 2050.This study can serve as a guide in gaining insights into future changes in wind energy across Central Asia and provide a scientific basis for decision makers in the formulation of policies for addressing climate change.

Simulation of atmospheric aerosols in East Asia using modeling system RAMS-CMAQ:Model evaluation

The modeling system RAMS-CMAQ is applied in this paper to East Asia to simulate the temporo-spatial concentration distributions of atmospheric aerosols. For evaluating its performances, modeled concentrations of aerosols such as sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon and organic carbon were compared with observations obtained in East Asia on board of two aircrafts in the springtime of 2001. The comparison showed generally good agreement, and, in particular, that the modeling system captured most of the important observed features, including vertical gradients of the aerosols of the Asian outflow over the western Pacific. The evaluation results provide us with much confidence for further use of the modeling system to investigate the transport and transformation processes of atmospheric aerosols over East Asia and to assess their impacts on the Earth＇s radiation budget.