A Modeling Study of Seasonal Variation of Atmospheric Aerosols over East Asia

In this study, a regional air quality model system （RAQMS） was applied to investigate the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of atmospheric aerosols in 2006 over East Asia. Model validations demonstrated that RAQMS was able to reproduce the evolution processes of aerosol components reasonably well. Ground-level PM10 （particles with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm） concentrations were highest in spring and lowest in summer and were characterized by three maximum centers： the Taklimakan Desert （-1000 μg m^-3）, the Gobi Desert （-400 μg m^-3）, and the Huabei Plain （- 300 μg m^-3） of China. Vertically, high PM10 concentrations ranging from 100 μg m-3 to 250 μg m-3 occurred from the surface to an altitude of 6000 m at 30°-45°N in spring. In winter, the vertical gradient was so large that most aerosols were restricted in the boundary layer. Both sulfate and ammonium reached their highest concentrations in autumn, while nitrate reached its maximum level in winter. Black carbon and organic carbon aerosol concentrations reached maximums in winter. Soil dust were strongest in spring, whereas sea salt exerted the strongest influence on the coastal regions of eastern China in summer. The estimated burden of anthropogenic aerosols was largest in winter （1621 Gg） and smallest in summer （1040 Gg）. The sulfate burden accounted for -42% of the total anthropogenic aerosol burden. The dust burden was about twice the anthropogenic aerosol burden, implying the potentially important impacts of the natural aerosols on air quality and climate over East Asia.

An Introduction to the Integrated Climate Model of the Center for Monsoon System Research and Its Simulated Influence of El Ni?no on East Asian–Western North Pacific Climate

This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated Climate Model （ICM）--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific （EA-WNP） climate by the Center for Monsoon System Research at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （CMSR, IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences. ICM integrates ECHAM5 and NEMO2.3 as its atmospheric and oceanic components, respectively, using OASIS3 as the coupler. The simulation skill of ICM is evaluated here, including the simulated climatology, interannual variation, and the influence of E1 Nifio as one of the most important factors on EA-WNP climate. ICM successfully reproduces the distribution of sea surface temperature （SST） and precipitation without climate shift, the seasonal cycle of equatorial Pacific SST, and the precipitation and circulation of East Asian summer monsoon. The most prominent biases of ICM are the excessive cold tongue and unrealistic westward phase propagation of equatorial Pacific SST. The main interannual variation of the tropical Pacific SST and EA-WNP climate E1 Nifio and the East Asia-Pacific Pattern--are also well simulated in ICM, with realistic spatial pattern and period. The simulated E1 Nifio has significant impact on EA-WNP climate, as in other models. The assessment shows ICM should be a reliable model for the seasonal prediction of EA-WNP climate.

Comparisons of Simulations of Soil Moisture Variations in the Yellow River Basin Driven by Various Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets

Based on station observations, The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis （ERA40）, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis and Princeton University＇s global meteorological forcing data set （Princeton）, four atmospheric forcing fields were constructed for use in driving the Community Land Model version 3.5 （CLM3.5）. Simulated soil moisture content throughout the period 1951-2000 in the Yellow River basin was validated via comparison with corresponding observations in the upper, middle, and lower reaches. The results show that CLM3.5 is capable of reproducing not only the characteristics of intra-annual and annual variations of soil moisture, but also long-term variation trends, with different statistical significance in the correlations between the observations and simulations from different forcing fields in various reaches. The simulations modeled with station-based atmospheric forcing fields are the most consistent with observed soil moisture, and the simulations based on the Princeton data set are the second best, on average. The simulations from ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR are close to each other in quality, but comparatively worse to the other sources of forcing information that were evaluated. Regionally, simulations are most consistent with observations in the lower reaches and less so in the upper reaches, with the middle reaches in between. In addition, the soil moisture simulated by CLM3.5 is systematically greater than the observations in the Yellow River basin. Comparisons between the simulations by CLM3.5 and CLM3.0 indicate that simulation errors are primarily caused by deficiencies within CLM3.5 and are also associated with the quality of atmospheric forcing field applied.

Impact of Anthropogenic Heat Release on Regional Climate in Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China

We simulated the impact of anthropogenic heat release （AHR） on the regional climate in three vast city agglomerations in China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested high-resolution modeling.Based on energy consumption and high-quality land use data,we designed two scenarios to represent no-AHR and current-AHR conditions.By comparing the results of the two numerical experiments,changes of surface air temperature and precipitation due to AHR were quantified and analyzed.We concluded that AHR increases the temperature in these urbanized areas by about 0.5℃-1℃,and this increase is more pronounced in winter than in other seasons.The inclusion of AHR enhances the convergence of water vapor over urbanized areas.Together with the warming of the lower troposphere and the enhancement of ascending motions caused by AHR,the average convective available potential energy in urbanized areas is increased.Rainfall amounts in summer over urbanized areas are likely to increase and regional precipitation patterns to be altered to some extent.

Changes of Frequency of Summer Precipitation Extremes over the Yangtze River in Association with Large-scale Oceanic-atmospheric Conditions

Changes of the frequency of precipitation extremes （the number of days with daily precipitation exceeding the 90th percentile of a daily climatology,referred to as R90N） in summer （June-August） over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River are analyzed based on daily observations during 1961-2007.The first singular value decomposition （SVD） mode of R90N is linked to an ENSO-like mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTA） in the previous winter.Responses of different grades of precipitation events to the climatic mode are compared.It is notable that the frequency of summer precipitation extremes is significantly related with the SSTA in the Pacific,while those of light and moderate precipitation are not.It is suggested that the previously well-recognized impact of ENSO on summer rainfall along the Yangtze River is essentially due to a response in summer precipitation extremes in the region,in association with the East Asia-Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern.A negative relationship is found between the East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） and precipitation extremes over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River.In contrast,light rainfall processes are independent from the SST and EASM variations.

Characteristics of Elemental Composition of PM_(2.5) in the Spring Period at Tongyu in the Semi-arid Region of Northeast China

Continuous observations of mass concentration and elemental composition of aerosol particles （PM2.5） were conducted at Tongyu, a semi-arid site in Northeast China in the spring of 2006. The average mass concentration of PM2.5 at Tongyu station was 260.9±274.4 μg m^-3 during the observation period. Nine dust events were monitored with a mean concentration of 528.0±302.7 μgm^-3. The PM2.5 level during non- dust storm （NDS） period was 111.65±63.37 μg m^-3. High mass concentration shows that fine-size particles pollution was very serious in the semi-arid area in Northeast China. The enrichment factor values for crust elements during the dust storm （DS） period are close to those in the NDS period, while the enrichment factor values for pollution elements during the NDS period are much higher than those in the DS period, showing these elements were from anthropogenic sources. The ratios of dust elements to Fe were relative constant during the DS period. The Ca/Fe ratio in dust aerosols at Tongyu is remarkably different from that observed in other source regions and downwind regions. Meteorological analysis shows that dust events at Tongyu are usually associated with dry, low pressure and high wind speed weather conditions. Air mass back-trajectory analysis identified three kinds of general pathways were associated with the aerosol particle transport to Tongyu, and the northwest direction pathway was the main transport route.

CMIP5/AMIP GCM Simulations of East Asian Summer Monsoon

The East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is a distinctive component of the Asian climate system and critically influences the economy and society of the region.To understand the ability of AGCMs in capturing the major features of EASM,10 models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5/AMIP）,which used observational SST and sea ice to drive AGCMs during the period 1979-2008,were evaluated by comparing with observations and AMIP Ⅱ simulations.The results indicated that the multi-model ensemble （MME） of CMIP5/AMIP captures the main characteristics of precipitation and monsoon circulation,and shows the best skill in EASM simulation,better than the AMIP Ⅱ MME.As for the Meiyu/Changma/Baiyu rainbelt,the intensity of rainfall is underestimated in all the models.The biases are caused by a weak western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） and accompanying eastward southwesterly winds in group Ⅰ models,and by a too strong and west-extended WPSH as well as westerly winds in group Ⅱ models.Considerable systematic errors exist in the simulated seasonal migration of rainfall,and the notable northward jumps and rainfall persistence remain a challenge for all the models.However,the CMIP5/AMIP MME is skillful in simulating the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI）.

The Element Size-Spectrum Distribution of Atmospheric Aerosol in Strong Autumn Winds over Beijing

Atmospheric aerosol samples collected in Beijing during 17-21 September 2004 were analyzed using the proton-induced X-ray emissions (PIXE) method,yielding concentrations of 20 elements.Analyzing the aerosol element size-spectrum distribution,enrichment factor (EF) and source over Beijing showed that under strong wind weather conditions,there were double peak distributions in the element size-spectra of Cu,S,K,Mn,As,Br,and Pb:one in fine mode and another in coarse mode.The peak in fine mode resulted from local emissions related to human activities,while the peak in coarse mode was caused by long range transport.The EF values of elements Ni,Cu,Zn,As,Se,Br,and Pb were relatively high,suggesting an evident characteristic polluted by regional aerosol.Results from factor analysis indicated that soil dust,coal-burning,industry and vehicle emissions contributed considerably to the autumn aerosol pollution in Beijing.

Causes of a Typical Southern Flood and Northern Drought Event in 2015 over Eastern China

The spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China often shows a dipole pattern,with anti-phased precipitation anomalies between southern China and northern China,known as the“southern flooding and northern drought”(SF-ND)pattern.In 2015,China experienced heavy rainfall in the south and the worst drought since 1979 in the north,which caused huge social and economic losses.Using reanalysis data,the atmospheric circulation anomalies and possible mechanisms related to the summer precipitation anomalies in 2015 were examined.The results showed that both El Niño and certain atmospheric teleconnections,including the Pacific Japan/East Asia Pacific(PJ/EAP),Eurasia pattern(EU),British–Baikal Corridor pattern(BBC),and Silk Road mode(SR),contributed to the dipole pattern of precipitation anomalies.The combination of these factors caused a southwards shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and a weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon.Consequently,it was difficult for the monsoon front and associated rain band to migrate northwards,which meant that less precipitation occurred in northern China while more precipitation occurred in southern China.This resulted in the SF-ND event.Moreover,further analysis revealed that global sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)or sea-ice anomalies were key to stimulating these atmospheric teleconnections.

Model Analysis of Seasonal Variations in Tropospheric Ozone and Carbon Monoxide over East Asia

Temporal-spatial variations in tropospheric ozone concentrations over East Asia in the period from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2004 were simulated by using the Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality （CMAQ） modeling system with meteorological fields calculated by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System （RAMS）. The simulated concentrations of ozone and carbon monoxide were compared with ground level observations at two remote sites, Ryori （39.03°N, 141.82°E） and Yonagunijima （24.47°N, 123.02°E）. The comparison shows that the model reproduces their seasonal variation patterns reasonably well, and simulated ozone levels are generally in good agreement with the observed ones, but carbon monoxide concentrations are underestimated. Analysis of horizontal distributions of monthly averaged ozone mixing ratios in the surface layer indicates that ozone concentrations have noticeable differences among the four seasons; they are generally higher in the spring and summer while lower in the winter, reflecting the seasonal variation of solar intensity and photochemical activity and the fact that the monsoons over East Asia are playing an important role in ozone distributions.

Preface to the Special Issue on Causes, Impacts, and Predictability of Droughts for the Past, Present, and Future

Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly under abnormal atmospheric conditions(e.g., quasi-stationary high-pressure systems), and can persist for weeks, months, or even years.

Relationships Between Surface Albedo,Soil Thermal Parameters and Soil Moisture in the Semi-arid Area of Tongyu,Northeastern China

Continuous observation data collected over the whole year of 2004 on a cropland surtace m Tongyu, a senti-arid area of northeastern China （44°25＇N, 122°52＇E）, have been used to investigate the variations of surface albedo and soil thermal parameters, including heat capacity, thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity, and their relationships to soil moisture. The diurnal variation of surface albedo appears as a U shape curve on sunny days. Surface albedo decreases with the increase of solar elevation angle, and it tends to be a constant when solar elevation angle is larger than 40°. So the daily average surface albedo was computed using the data when solar elevation angle is larger than 40° Mean daily surface albedo is found to decrease with the increase of soil moisture, showing an exponential dependence on soil moisture. The variations of soil heat capacity are small during Julian days 90 300. Compared with the heat capacity, soil thermal conductivity has very gentle variations during this period, but the soil thermal diffusivity has wide variations during the same period. The soil thermal conductivity is found to increase as a power function of soil moisture. The soil thermal diffusivity increases firstly and then decreases with the increase of soil moisture.

The Interannual Variability of Summer Rainfall in the Arid and Semiarid Regions of Northern China and Its Association with the Northern Hemisphere Circumglobal Teleconnection

Using the latest daily observational rainfall datasets for the period 1961–2008, the present study investigates the interannual variability of June–September （JJAS） mean rainfall in northern China. The regional characteristics of JJAS mean rainfall are revealed by a rotated empirical orthogonal function （REOF） analysis. The analysis identifies three regions of large interannual variability of JJAS rainfall： North China （NC）, Northeast China （NEC）, and the Taklimakan Desert in Northwest China （TDNWC）. Summer rainfall over NC is shown to have displayed a remarkable dry period from the late 1990s; while over NEC, decadal-scale variation with a significant decreasing trend in the last two decades is found, and over TDNWC, evidence of large interannual variability is revealed. Results also show that the interannual variability of JJAS rainfall in northern China is closely associated with the Northern Hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection （CGT）. Correlation coefficients between the CGT index and regional-averaged JJAS mean rainfall over NC and NEC were calculated, revealing values of up to 0.50 and 0.53, respectively, both of which exceeded the 99% confidence level.

An Analysis of Historical and Future Temperature Fluctuations over China Based on CMIP5 Simulations

The trends and fluctuations of observed and CMIP5-simulated yearly mean surface air temperature over China were analyzed.In general,the historical simulations replicate the observed increase of temperature,but the multi-model ensemble （MME） mean does not accurately reproduce the drastic interannual fluctuations.The correlation coefficient of the MME mean with the observations over all runs and all models was 0.77,which was larger than the largest value （0.65） from any single model ensemble.The results showed that winter temperatures are increasing at a higher rate than summer temperatures,and that winter temperatures exhibit stronger interannual variations.It was also found that the models underestimate the differences between winter and summer rates.The ensemble empirical mode decomposition technique was used to obtain six intrinsic mode functions （IMFs） for the modeled temperature and observations.The periods of the first two IMFs of the MME mean were 3.2 and 7.2,which represented the cycle of 2-7-yr oscillations.The periods of the third and fourth IMFs were 14.7 and 35.2,which reflected a multi-decadal oscillation of climate change.The corresponding periods of the first four IMFs were 2.69,7.24,16.15 and 52.5 in the observed data.The models overestimate the period of low frequency oscillation of temperature,but underestimate the period of high frequency variation.The warming rates from different representative concentration pathways （RCPs） were calculated,and the results showed that the temperature will increase by approximately 0.9℃,2.4℃,3.2℃ and 6.1℃ in the next century under the RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.

Three-year Variations of Water, Energy and CO_2 Fluxes of Cropland and Degraded Grassland Surfaces in a Semi-arid Area of Northeastern China

Based on 3 years （2003-05） of the eddy covariance （EC） observations on degraded grassland and cropland surfaces in a semi-arid area of Tongyu （44°25′N, 122°52′E, 184 m a.s.1.）, Northeast China, seasonal and annual variations of water, energy and CO2 fluxes have been investigated. The soil moisture in the thin soil layer （at 0.05, 0.10 and 0.20 m） clearly indicates the pronounced annual wet-dry cycle; the annual cycle is divided into the wet （growing season） and dry seasons （non-growing season）. During the growing season （from May to September）, the sensible and latent heat fluxes showed a linear dependence on the global solar radiation. However, in the non-growing season, the latent heat flux was always less than 50 W m^-2, while the available energy was dissipated as sensible, rather than latent heat flux. During the growing season in 2003-05, the daily average sensible and latent heat fluxes were larger on the cropland surface than on the degraded grassland surface. The cropland ecosystem absorbed more CO2 than the degraded grassland ecosystem in the growing season in 2003-05. The total evapotranspiration on the cropland was more than the total precipitation, while the total evapotranspiration on the degraded grassland was almost the same as the total annual precipitation in the growing season. The soil moisture had a good correlation with the rainfall in the growing season. Precipitation in the growing season is an important factor on the water and carbon budget in the semi-arid area.

On Multi-Timescale Variability of Temperature in China in Modulated Annual Cycle Reference Frame

The traditional anomaly （TA） reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle （MAC）, instead of the widely used climatological mean annual cycle, is used as an alternative reference frame for computing climate anomalies to study the multi-timescale variability of surface air temperature （SAT） in China based on homogenized daily data from 1952 to 2004. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） method is used to separate daily SAT into a high frequency component, a MAC component, an interannual component, and a decadal-to-trend component. The results show that the EEMD method can reflect historical events reasonably well, indicating its adaptive and temporally local characteristics. It is shown that MAC is a temporally local reference frame and will not be altered over a particular time span by an exten-sion of data length, thereby making it easier for physical interpretation. In the MAC reference frame, the low frequency component is found more suitable for studying the interannual to longer timescale variability （ILV） than a 13-month window running mean, which does not exclude the annual cycle. It is also better than other traditional versions （annual or summer or winter mean） of ILV, which contains a portion of the annual cycle. The analysis reveals that the variability of the annual cycle could be as large as the magnitude of interannual variability. The possible physical causes of different timescale variability of SAT in China are further discussed.

The Impact of the Tropical Indian Ocean on South Asian High in Boreal Summer

The tropical Indian Ocean （TIO） is warmer than normal during the summer when or after the El Nio decays. The present study investigates the impact of TIO SST on the South Asian High （SAH） in summer. When the TIO is warmer, the SAH strengthens and its center shifts southward. It is found that the variations in the SAH cannot be accounted for by the precipitation anomaly. A possible mechanism is proposed to explain the connection between the TIO and SAH： warmer SST in the TIO changes the equivalent potential temperature （EPT） in the atmospheric boundary layer （ABL）, alters the temperature profile of the moist atmosphere, warms the troposphere, which produces significant positive height anomaly over South Asia and modifies the SAH. An atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM5, which has a reasonable prediction skill in the TIO and South Asia, was selected to test the effects of TIO SST on the SAH. The experiment with idealized heating over the TIO reproduced the response of the SAH to TIO warming. The results suggest that the TIO-induced EPT change in the ABL can account for the variations in the SAH.

Statistical Downscaling of Summer Temperature Extremes in Northern China

Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downseale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross- validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downsealing to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 （HadCM3） simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 （RCP 4.5） scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP5）. The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011- 35 relative to 1980-99.

Analyzing and Forecasting Climate Change in Harbin City,Northeast China

Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85℃/10yr if emission concentration of CO2 remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO2 decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65℃/10yr, 0.46℃/10yr and 0.27℃/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.

Episode Simulation of Asian Dust Storms with an Air Quality Modeling System

A dust deflation module was developed and coupled with the air quality modeling system RAMS-CMAQ to simultaneously treat all the major tropospheric aerosols（i.e.,organic and black carbons,sulfate,nitrate, ammonia,soil dust,and sea salt）.Then the coupled system was applied to East Asia to simulate Asian dust aerosol generation,transport and dry/wet removal processes during 14-25 March 2002 when two strong dust storms occurred consecutively.To evaluate model performance and to analyze the observed features of dust aerosols over the East Asian region,model results were compared to concentrations of suspended particulate matter of 10μm or less(PM;;1-h intervals) at four remote Japanese stations and daily air pollution index （API） values for PM;at four large Chinese cities.The modeled values were generally in good agreement with observed data,and the model reasonably reproduced two dust storm outbreaks and generally predicted the dust onset and cessation times at each observation site.In addition,hourly averaged values of aerosol optical thickness（AOT） were calculated and compared with observations at four Aerosol Robotic Network （AERONET） stations to assess the model’s capability of estimating dust aerosol column burden.Analysis shows that modeled and observed AOT values were generally comparable and that the contribution of dust aerosols to AOT was significant only with regard to their source regions and their transport paths.