The Influence of Regional SSTs on the Interdecadal Shift of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

East Asia has experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift since the late 1970s. This shift was accompanied by a decadal change of global SST. Previous studies have suggested that the decadal shift of global SST background status played a substantial role in such a climatic shift. However, the individual roles of different regional SSTs remain unclear. In this study, we investigated these roles using ensemble experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model, GFDL （Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory） AM2. Two kinds of ensembles were performed. The first was a control ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs. The second was an experimental ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs plus interdecadal SST background shifts in separate ocean regions. The results suggest that the SST shift in the tropics exerted more important influence than those in the extratropics, although the latter contribute to the shift modestly. The variations of summer monsoonal circulation systems, including the South Asian High, the West Pacific Subtropical High, and the lower-level air flow, were analyzed. The results show that, in comparison with those induced by extratropical SSTs, the shifts induced by tropical SSTs bear more similarity to the observations and to the simulations with global SSTs prescribed. In particular, the observed SST shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean, rather than the Indian Ocean, contributed significantly to the shift of East Asian summer monsoon since the 1970s.

Regional Oceanic Impact on Circulation and Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosol over East Asia

The Regional Integrated Environmental Model System(RIEMS 2.0) coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model and the Princeton Ocean Model(POM) is employed to simulate regional oceanic impact on atmospheric circulation and the direct radiative effect(DRE) of aerosol over East Asia.The aerosols considered in this study include both major anthropogenic aerosols(e.g.,sulfate,black carbon,and organic carbon) and natural aerosols(e.g.,soil dust and sea salt) .The RIEMS 2.0 is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis II,and the simulated period is from 1 January to 31 December 2006.The results show the following:(1) The simulated annual mean sea-level pressure by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is lower than without POM over the mainland and higher without POM over the ocean.(2) In summer,the subtropical high simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is stronger and extends further westward,and the continental low is stronger than without POM in summer.(3) The aerosol optical depth(AOD) simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is larger in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River than without POM.(4) The direct radiative effect with POM is stronger than that without POM in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of southern China. Therefore,the authors should take account of the impact of the regional ocean model on studying the direct climate effect of aerosols in long term simulation.

Simulation of Extreme Climate Events over China with Different Regional Climate Models

During phase Ⅱof the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (RMIP) for Asia,the Asian climate was estimated from July 1988 to December 1998 using six climate models.In this paper,the abilities of six climate models to simulate several important extreme climate events in China during the last years of the last century were analyzed.The modeled results for the intensity of the precipitation anomaly over the Yangtze-Huaihe Valley during the summers of 1991 and 1998 were weaker than the observed values.The positive precipitation anomaly responsible for a catastrophic flood in 1991 was well reproduced in almost all simulation results,but the intensity and range of the precipitation anomaly in 1998 were weaker in the modeled results.The spatial distribution of extreme climate events in 1997,when severe drought affected North China and flood impacted South China,was reproduced by most of the regional models because the anomaly of the large-scale background field was well-simulated,despite poor simulation of high temperature areas in the north during the summer by all models.

Direct Radiative Forcing and Climatic Effects of Aerosols over East Asia by RegCM3

The authors used a high-resolution regional climate model(RegCM3) coupled with a chemistry/aerosol module to simulate East Asian climate in 2006 and to test the climatic impacts of aerosols on regionalscale climate.The direct radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosols(dust,sulfate,black carbon,and organic carbon) were discussed.The results indicated that aerosols generally produced negative radiative forcing at the top-of-the-atmosphere(TOA) over most areas of East Asia.The radiative forcing induced by aerosols exhibited significant seasonal and regional variations,with the strongest forcing occurring in summer.The aerosol feedbacks on surface air temperature and precipitation were clear.Surface cooling dominated features over the East Asian continental areas,which varied in the approximate range of-0.5 to-2°C with the maximum up to-3-C in summer over the deserts of West China.The aerosols induced complicated variations of precipitation.Except in summer,the rainfall generally varied in the range of-1 to 1 mm d-1 over most areas of China.

Impact of Different East Asian Summer Monsoon Circulations on Aerosol-Induced Climatic Effects

The different spatial distributions of aerosol-induced direct radiative forcing and climatic effects in a weak(2003)and a strong(2006)East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)circulation were simulated using a high-resolution regional climate model(RegCM3).Results showed that the atmospheric circulations of summer monsoon have direct relations with transport of aerosols and their climatic effects.Both the top-of-the-atmosphere(TOA)and the surface-negative radiative forcing of aerosols were stronger in weak EASM circulations.The main difference in aerosol-induced negative forcing in two summers varied between 2 and 14 W m 2from the Sichuan Basin to North China,where a maximum in aerosol-induced negative forcing was also noticed in the EASM-dominated areas.The spatial difference in the simulated aerosol optical depth(AOD)in two summers generally showed the similar pictures.Surface cooling effects induced by aerosols were spatially more uniform in weak EASM circulations and cooler by about 1–4.5 C.A preliminary analysis here indicated that a weaker low-level wind speed not conducive to the transport and diffusion of aerosols could make more contributions to the differences in the two circulations.

Satellite-Based Monitoring of Decadal Soil Salinization and Climate Effects in a Semi-arid Region of China

Soil salinization is a common phenomenon that affects both the environment and the socio-economy in arid and semi-arid regions; it is also an important aspect of land cover change. In this study, we integrated multi-sensor remote sensing data with a field survey to analyze processes of soil salinization in a semi-arid area in China from 1979 to 2009. Generally, the area of salt-affected soils increased by 0.28% per year with remarkable acceleration from 1999 to 2009 （0.42% increase per year）. In contrast, the area of surface water bodies showed a decreasing trend （-0.08% per year） in the same period. Decreases in precipitation and increases in aridity due to annual （especially summer） warming provided a favorable condition for soil salinization. The relatively flat terrain favored waterlogging at the surface, and continuous drought facilitated upward movement of soil water and accumulation of surface saline and calcium. Meanwhile, land-use practices also played a crucial role in accelerating soil salinization. The conversion to cropland from natural vegetation greatly increased the demand for groundwater irrigation and aggravated the process of soil salinization. Furthermore, there are potential feedbacks of soil salinization to regional climate. The salinization of soils can limit the efficiency of plant water use as well as photosynthesis; therefore, it reduces the amount of carbon sequestrated by terrestrial ecosystem. Soil salinization also reduces the absorbed solar radiation by increasing land surface albedo. Such conversions of land cover significantly change the energy and water balance between land and atmosphere.

Changing Spring Phenology Dates in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region of the Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2013

The variation of the vegetation growing season in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region of the Tibetan Plateau has recently become a controversial topic. One issue is that the estimated local trend in the start of the vegetation growing season(SOS)based on remote sensing data is easily affected by outliers because this data series is short. In this study, we determine that the spring minimum temperature is the most influential factor for SOS. The significant negative linear relationship between the two variables in the region is evaluated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer–Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data for 2000–13. We then reconstruct the SOS time series based on the temperature data for 1960–2013.The regional mean SOS shows an advancing trend of 1.42 d(10 yr)during 1960–2013, with the SOS occurring on the 160th and 151st days in 1960 and 2013, respectively. The advancing trend enhances to 6.04 d(10 yr)during the past 14 years. The spatiotemporal variations of the reconstructed SOS data are similar to those deduced from remote sensing data during the past 14 years. The latter exhibit an even larger regional mean trend of SOS [7.98 d(10 yr)] during 2000–13. The Arctic Oscillation is found to have significantly influenced the changing SOS, especially for the eastern part of the region,during 2000–13.

A Case Study of the Impacts of Dust Aerosols on Surface Atmospheric Variables and Energy Budgets in a Semi-Arid Region of China

The authors present a case study investigating the impacts of dust aerosols on surface atmospheric variables and energy budgets in a semi-arid region of China. Enhanced observational meteorological data, radiative fluxes, near-surface heat fluxes, and concentrations of dust aerosols were collected from Tongyu station, one of the reference sites of the International Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project (CEOP), during a typical dust storm event in June 2006. A comprehensive analysis of these data show that in this semi-arid area, higher wind velocities and a continuously reduced air pressure were identified during the dust storm period. Dust storm events are usually associated with low relative humidity weather conditions, which result in low latent heat flux values. Dust aerosols suspended in the air decrease the net radiation, mainly by reducing the direct solar radiation reaching the land surface. This reduction in net radiation results in a decrease in soil temperatures at a depth of 2 cm. The combination of increased air temperature and decreased soil temperature strengthens the energy exchange of the atmosphere-earth system, increasing the surface sensible heat flux. After the dust storm event, the atmosphere was dominated by higher pressures and was relatively wet and cold. Net radiation and latent heat flux show an evident increase, while the surface sensible heat flux shows a clear decrease.

Changes of climate extremes of temperature and precipitation in summer in eastern China associated with changes in atmospheric circulation in East Asia during 1960-2008

Climate extremes and changes in eastern China are closely related to variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and corresponding atmospheric circulations.The relationship between frequencies of temperature and precipitation extremes in China during the last half century is investigated using Singular Value Decomposition analysis.During 1980-1996,there was a typical pattern with fewer hot days and more precipitation extremes in the northern part of eastern China,and more hot days and fewer precipitation extremes in the southern part.This geographic pattern tended to reverse after 1997,with fewer hot days and more extreme precipitation days south of the Yangtze River and vice versa to the north.Differences in atmospheric circulation between the former and latter periods are presented.We conclude that a mid-level anomalous high/low,upper-level anomalous easterlies/westerlies over the north/south of eastern China,a weakened East Asian summer monsoon and associated upper-tropospheric center of cooling(30°N,110°E) are all favorable for the changes in frequencies of temperature and precipitation extremes.

A Climatology of the Southwest Vortex during 1979–2008

Using a new vortex detection and tracing method, a dataset of the Southwest Vortex(SWV) is established based on Japanese 25-year Reanalysis(JRA-25) reanalysis data during 1979–2008. The spatiotemporal features of the SWV are derived from the dataset. In comparison to other seasons, summer yields the least SWVs, but with the highest probability that they will migrate from their region of origin. SWVs mostly emerge in the southwest of the Sichuan Basin and the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau. Migratory SWVs mainly move along either an eastward or southeastward path. Detailed composite analysis of warm-season SWVs shows that the subtropical high is a key factor in determining the direction of migratory SWVs. Furthermore, the steering wind at 700 hPa dominates the moving direction of migratory SWVs. Potential stability diagnosed by pseudo-equivalent potential temperature ? se is of certain significance for the evolution and movement of SWVs. On the other hand, migratory SWVs possess relatively greater strength than stationary SWVs, due to a stronger low-level jet with enhanced baroclinicity and moisture transport providing more energy to support the growth of SWVs along their paths of movement.

Changes in Seasonal Cycle and Extremes in China during the Period 1960–2008

Recent trends in seasonal cycles in China are analyzed, based on a homogenized dataset of daily temperatures at 541 stations during the period 1960–2008. Several indices are defined for describing the key features of a seasonal cycle, including local winter/summer （LW/LS） periods and local spring/autumn phase （LSP/LAP）. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is applied to determine the indices for each year. The LW period was found to have shortened by 2–6 d （10 yr）-1, mainly due to an earlier end to winter conditions, with the LW mean temperature having increased by 0.2°C–0.4°C （10 yr）？1, over almost all of China. Records of the most severe climate extremes changed less than more typical winter conditions did. The LS period was found to have lengthened by 2–4 d （10 yr）？1, due to progressively earlier onsets and delayed end dates of the locally defined hot period. The LS mean temperature increased by 0.1°C–0.2°C （10 yr）-1 in most of China, except for a region in southern China centered on the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In contrast to the winter cases, the warming trend in summer was more prominent in the most extreme records than in those of more typical summer conditions. The LSP was found to have advanced significantly by about 2 d （10 yr）-1 in most of China. Changes in the autumn phase were less prominent. Relatively rapid changes happened in the 1980s for most of the regional mean indices dealing with winter and in the 1990s for those dealing with summer.

A Spatial Cluster Analysis of Heavy Rains in China

Clustered heavy rains (CHRs) defined using hierarchical cluster analysis based on daily observations of precipitation in China during 1960-2008 are investigated in this paper.The geographical pattern of CHRs in China shows three high-frequency centers-South China,the Yangtze River basin,and part of North China around the Bohai Sea.CHRs occur most frequently in South China with a mean annual frequency of 6.8 (a total of 334 times during 1960-2008).June has the highest monthly frequency (2.2 times/month with a total of 108 times during 1960-2008),partly in association with the Meiyu phenomenon in the Yangtze River basin.Within the past 50 years,the frequency of CHRs in China has increased significantly from 13.5 to 17.3 times per year,which is approximately 28%.In the 1990s,the frequency of CHRs often reached 19.1 times per year.The geographical extent of CHR has expanded slightly by 0.5 stations,and its average daily rainfall intensity has increased by 3.7 mm d 1.The contribution of CHRs to total rainfall amount and the frequency of daily precipitation have increased by 63.1% and 22.7%,respectively,partly due to a significant decrease in light rains.In drying regions of North and Northeast China,the amounts of minimal CHRs have had no significant trend in recent years,probably due to warming in these arid regions enhancing atmospheric convectivity at individual stations.

The Impact of Indian Ocean Variability on High Temperature Extremes across the Southern Yangtze River Valley in Late Summer

In this study, the teleconnection between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） and the frequency of high temperature extremes （HTEs） across the southern Yangtze River valley （YRV） was investigated. The results indicate that the frequency of HTEs across the southern YRV in August is remotely influenced by the Indian Ocean basin mode （IOBM） SSTAs. Corresponding to June-July-August （JJA） IOBM warming condition, the number of HTEs was above normal, and corresponding to IOBM cooling conditions, the number of HTEs was below normal across the southern YRV in August. The results of this study indicate that the tropical IOBM warming triggered low-level anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the subtropical northwestern Pacific Ocean and southern China by emanating a warm Kelvin wave in August. In the southern YRV, the reduced rainfall and downward vertical motion associated with the anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation led to the increase of HTE frequency in August.

A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional ＂yield impact of meteorological factor （YIMF）＂ or ＂yield impact of weather factor＂ to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change （YICC）, which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields （PUAY） of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

Assessing Disagreement and Tolerance of Misclassification of Satellite-derived Land Cover Products Used in WRF Model Applications

As more satellite-derived land cover products used in the study of global change, especially climate modeling, assessing their quality has become vitally important. In this study, we developed a distance metric based on the parameters used in weather research and forecasting （WRF） to characterize the degree of disagreement among land cover products and to identify the tolerance for misclassification within the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme （IGBP） classification scheme. We determined the spatial degree of disagreement and then created maps of misclassification of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer （MODIS） products, and we calculated overall and class-specific accuracy and fuzzy agreement in a WRF model. Our results show a high level of agreement and high tolerance of misclassification in the WRF model between large-scale homogeneous landscapes, while a low level of agreement and tolerance of misclassification appeared in heterogeneous landscapes. The degree of disagreement varied significantly among seven regions of China. The class-specific accuracy and fuzzy agreement in MODIS Collection 4 and 5 products varied significantly. High accuracy and fuzzy agreement occurred in the following classes： water, grassland, cropland, and barren or sparsely vegetated. Misclassification mainly occurred among specific classes with similar plant functional types and low discriminative spectro-temporal signals. Some classes need to be improved further; the quality of MODIS land cover products across China still does not meet the common requirements of climate modeling. Our findings may have important implications for improving land surface parameterization for simulating climate and for better understanding the influence of the land cover change on climate.

Impact of the Anomalous Thawing in the Tibetan Plateau on Summer Precipitation in China and Its Mechanism

The impact of the anomalous thawing of frozen soil in the late spring on the summer precipitation in China and its possible mechanism are analyzed in the context of the frozen soil thawing date data of the 50 meteorological stations in the Tibetan Plateau, and the NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis data. Results show that the thawing dates of the Tibetan Plateau gradually become earlier from 1980 to 1999, which is consistent with the trend of global warming in the 20th century. Because differences in the thermal capacity and conductivity between frozen and unfrozen soils are larger, changes in the freezing/thawing process of soil may change the physical properties of the underlying surface, thus affecting exchanges of sensible and latent heat between the ground surface and air. The thermal state change of the plateau ground surface must lead to the thermal anomalies of the atmosphere over and around the plateau, and then further to the anomalies of the general atmospheric circulation. A possible mechanism for the impact of the thawing of the plateau on summer (July) precipitation may be as follows. When the frozen soil thaws early (late) in the plateau, the thermal capacity of the ground surface is large (small), and the thermal conductivity is small (large), therefore, the thermal exchanges between the ground surface and the air are weak (strong). The small (large) ground surface sensible and latent heat fluxes lead to a weak (strong) South Asian high, a weak (strong) West Pacific subtropical high and a little to south (north) of its normal position. Correspondingly, the ascending motion is strengthened (weakened) and precipitation increases (decreases) in South China, while in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River, the ascending motion and precipitation show the opposite trend.

A STATISTICAL PREDICTION MODEL FOR SPRING RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN CHINA BASED ON THE INTERANNUAL INCREMENT APPROACH

The spring (March-April-May) rainfall over northern China (SPRNC) is predicted by using the interannual increment approach. DY denotes the difference between the current year and previous years. The seasonal forecast model for the DY of SPRNC is constructed based on the data that are taken from the 1965-2002 period (38 years), in which six predictors are available no later than the current month of February. This is favorable so that the seasonal forecasts can be made one month ahead. Then, SPRNC and the percentage anomaly of SPRNC are obtained by the predicted DY of SPRNC. The model performs well in the prediction of the inter-annual variation of the DY of SPRNC during 1965-2002, with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed DY of SPRNC of 0.87. This accounts for 76% of the total variance, with a low value for the average root mean square error (RMSE) of 20%. Both the results of the hindcast for the period of 2003-2010 (eight years) and the cross-validation test for the period of 1965-2009 (45 years) illustrate the good prediction capability of the model, with a small mean relative error of 10%, an RMSE of 17% and a high rate of coherence of 87.5% for the hindcasts of the percentage anomaly of SPRNC.

Satellite-Based Estimation of Daily Average Net Radiation under Clear-Sky Conditions

ABSTRACT Daily average net radiation （DANR） is an important variable for estimating evapotranspiration from satellite data at regional scales, and is used for atmospheric and hydrologic modeling, as well as ecosystem management. A scheme is proposed to estimate the DANR over large heterogeneous areas under clear-sky conditions using only remotely sensed data. The method was designed to overcome the dependence of DANR estimates on ground data, and to map spatially consistent and reasonably distributed DANR, by using various land and atmospheric data products retrieved from MODIS （Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer） data. An improved sinusoidal model was used to retrieve the diurnal variations of downward shortwave radiation using a single instantaneous value from satellites. The downward shortwave component of DANR was directly obtained from this instantaneous value, and the upward shortwave component was estimated using satellite-derived albedo products. Four observations of air temperature from MOD07_L2 and MYD07_L2 data products were used to derive the downward longwave component of DANR, while the upward longwave component was estimated using the land surface temperature （LST） and the surface emissivity from MOD1 l_L2. Compared to in situ observations at the cropland and grassland sites located in Tongyu, northern China, the root mean square error （RMSE） of DANR estimated for both sites under clear-sky conditions was 37 W m-2 and 40 W m-2, respectively. The errors in estimation of DANR were comparable to those from previous satellite-based methods. Our estimates can be used for studying the surface radiation balance and evapotranspiration.

A Case Study of the Improvement of Soil Moisture Initialization in IAP-PSSCA

A prediction system is employed to investigate the potential use of a soil moisture initialization scheme in seasonal precipitation prediction through a case study of severe floods in 1998. The results show that driving the model with reasonable initial soil moisture distribution is helpful for precipitation prediction, and the initialization scheme is easy to use in operational prediction.

Application of an Economy-Climate Model to Assess the Impact of Climate Change

An interdisciplinary investigation was conducted to assess the impact of climate change on grain yields using an economy-climate model （C-D-C）. The model was formulated by incorporating climate factors into the classic Cobb-Douglas （C-D） economic production function model. The economic meanings of the model output elasticities are described and elucidated. The C-D-C model was applied to the assessment of the impact of climate change on grain yields in China during the past 20 years, from 1983 through 2002. In the study, the land of China was divided into eight regions, and both the C-D-C and C-D models were applied to each individual region. The results suggest that the C-D-C model is superior to the classic C-D model, indicating the importance of climate factors. Prospective applications of the C-D-C model are discussed.