Reconstruction of hydrological changes based on tree-ring data of the Haba River, northwestern China

Reconstructing the hydrological change based on dendrohydrological data has important implications for understanding the dynamic distribution and evolution pattern of a given river. The widespread, long-living coniferous forests on the Altay Mountains provide a good example for carrying out the dendrohydrological studies. In this study, a regional composite tree-ring width chronology developed by Lariat sibirica Ledeb. and Picea obovata Ledeb. was used to reconstruct a 301-year annual （from preceding July to succeeding June） streamflow for the Haba River, which originates in the southern Altay Mountains, Xinjiang, China. Results indicated that the reconstructed streamflow series and the observations were fitting well, and explained 47.5% of the variation in the observed streamflow of 1957-2008. Moreover, floods and droughts in 1949-2000 were precisely captured by the streamflow reconstruction. Based on the frequencies of the wettest/driest years and decades, we identified the 19th century as the century with the largest occurrence of hydrological fluctuations for the last 300 years. After applying a 21-year moving average, we found five wet （1724-1758, 1780-1810, 1822-1853, 1931-1967, and 1986-2004） and four dry （1759-1779, 1811-1821, 1854-1930, and 1968-1985） periods in the streamflow reconstruction. Furthermore, four periods （1770-1796, 1816-1836, 1884-1949, and 1973-1997） identified by the streamflow series had an obvious increasing trend. The increasing trend of streamflow since the 1970s was the biggest in the last 300 years and coincided with the recent warming-wetting trend in northwestern China. A significant correlation between streamflow and precipitation in the Altay Mountains indicated that the streamflow reconstruction contained not only local, but also broad-scale, hydro-climatic signals. The 24-year, 12-year, and 2.2-4.5-year cycles of the reconstruction revealed that the streamflow variability of the Haba River may be influenced by solar activity and the atmosphere-ocean system.

Comparison of drought-sensitive tree-ring records from the Tien Shan of Kyrgyzstan and Xinjiang (China) during the last six centuries

In this study, tree-ring width data of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana) from the upper timberline of the Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan) were analyzed to investigate the effect of climate change. Growtheclimate response analyses revealed that the tree rings of spruce at the upper timberline of the Tien Shan also can provide hydrometeorological (precipitation and streamflow) signals. Tree-ring records from both Kyrgyzstan and Xinjiang exhibited similar tree-growth variability at both annual and decadal time scales during the common period 1457e2009. In Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan, tree growth was reduced during the Little Ice Age (LIA); however, the timing and magnitude of LIA differ between the two regions. During 1470e1660, the two chronologies diverged, and this phenomenon is considered to be caused by a different response to the harsh climate of the LIA. In this study, the tree-ring width series from the upper tree line of the Tien Shan is negatively associated with temperature. As opposed to previous studies, the tree-ring width series from the upper timberline of the Tien Shan appears to respond well to hydrometeorological factors. Therefore, we highlight the need for more detailed ecophysiological response studies for spruce trees at the upper timberline of the Tien Shan, in particular, with regard to the role of water availability and temperature during the growth season.

Climatic response of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica tree-ring width and precipitation reconstruction for the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains, China, since 1720

August-June precipitation has been reconstructed back to AD 1720 for the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains, China, by use ofPinus sylvestris var. mongolica tree-ring width. The reconstruction explains the variance of 39% in observed precipitation from 1973 to 2008. Some extremely dry/wet signals in historical documents and other precipitation reconstructions in previous studies are precisely captured in our reconstruction. Wet periods occurred during the periods of 1730 to 1746, 1789 to 1812, 1844 to 1903, 1920 to 1930, 1942 to 1961, and 1985 to 1998; while periods of 1747 to 1788, 1813 to 1843, 1904 to 1919, 1931 to 1941, and 1962 to 1984 were relatively dry. Power spectral and wavelet analyses demon- strated the existence of significant 24-year, 12-year, and 2-year cycles of variability.

Differential response of radial growth and δ^(13)C in Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia) to climate change on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China

Tree radial growth can have significantly differ-ent responses to climate change depending on the environ-ment.To elucidate the effects of climate on radial growth and stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C)fractionation of Qing-hai spruce(Picea crassifolia),a widely distributed native conifer in northwestern China in different environments,we developed chronologies for tree-ring widths and δ^(13)C in trees on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains,and analysed the relationship between these tree-ring variables and major climatic factors.Tree-ring widths were strongly influenced by climatic factors early in the growing season,and the radial growth in trees on the northern slopes was more sensitive to climate than in trees on the southern.Tree-ring δ^(13)C was more sensitive to climate than radial growth.δ^(13)C fractionation was mainly influenced by summer temperature and precipitation early in the growing season.Stomatal conductance more strongly limited stable carbon isotope fractionation in tree rings than photosynthetic rate did.The response between tree rings and climate in mountains gradually weakened as climate warmed.Changes in radial growth and stable carbon isotope fractionation of P.crassifolia in response to climate in the Qilian Mountains may be further complicated by continued climate change.

Decreasing productivity of pine forests on the southern edge of the Mongolian Plateau as indicated by tree rings

Vegetation productivity on the southern edge of the Inner Mongolian Plateau,which plays a vital role in the ecological environment and in the arable and pasto-ral production in this region,can be characterized by the NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index).However,the observed NDVI data span only the last~40 years.The growth of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.is strongly correlated with the NDVI,making it a valuable proxy for extend-ing the length of observed NDVI datasets.In this study,we reconstructed an NDVI series for 1776–2021 for the Daqing Mountains,based on a tree-ring width chronology.The reconstructed data accounted for 55%of the variance in the observed data,and its statistical characteristics and validation indicate that the reconstruction is dependable.Spatial correlation analysis demonstrated the consistency of climate signals in central Inner Mongolia in both the arable and pastoral zones.The results of superposed epoch analysis revealed a good temporal consistency between drought and flood events and the reconstructed NDVI sequence in this region.

Hydrological and water cycle processes of inland river basins in the arid region of Northwest China

The increasing shortage in water resources is a key factor affecting sustainable socio-economic development in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC). Water shortages also affect the stability of the region's oasis ecosystem. This paper summarizes the hydrological processes and water cycle of inland river basins in the ARNC, focusing on the following aspects: the spatial-temporal features of water resources(including air water vapor resources, runoff, and glacial meltwater) and their driving forces; the characteristics of streamflow composition in the inland river basins; the characteristics and main controlling factors of baseflow in the inland rivers; and anticipated future changes in hydrological processes and water resources. The results indicate that:(1) although the runoff in most inland rivers in the ARNC showed a significant increasing trend, both the glaciated area and glacial ice reserves have been reduced in the mountains;(2) snow melt and glacier melt are extremely important hydrological processes in the ARNC, especially in the Kunlun and Tianshan mountains;(3) baseflow in the inland rivers of the ARNC is the result of climate change and human activities, with the main driving factors being the reduction in forest area and the over-exploitation and utilization of groundwater in the river basins; and(4) the contradictions among water resources, ecology and economy will further increase in the future. The findings of this study might also help strengthen the ecological, economic and social sustainable development in the study region.

Recent Climate Warming of Central China Reflected by Temperature-sensitive Tree Growth in the Eastern Qinling Mountains and its Linkages to the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

We have developed a 202-year tree-ring width chronology of Shensi fir(Abies chensiensis) growing in an open canopy forest at the treeline of the eastern Qinling Mountains. Climate response analyses revealed that the ring width of Shensi fir trees is primarily controlled by the range of temperature from February–June. The regression model that we used for statistical temperature reconstruction passed the leave-one-out cross-validation used in dendroclimatology, resulting in a quality-controlled February–June reconstruction for the eastern Qinling Mountains. The model accounts for 36.7% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period of 1960–2012. Warm springs and early summers occurred during AD 1870–1873, 1909–1914, 1927–1958 and 1997–2012, while the periods of AD 1874–1908, 1915–1926 and 1959–1996 were relatively cold. Spatial climate correlation analyses with gridded land surface data revealed that our temperature reconstruction contains a strong regional temperature signal for central China. The linkages of ourtemperature reconstruction with sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans suggest the connection of regional temperature variations to large-scale ocean–atmosphere–land circulation. Preliminary analysis of links between large-scale climatic variation and the temperature reconstruction also shows that there is a relationship between extremes in spring and early summer temperature and anomalous atmospheric circulation in the Qinling Mountains. Overall, our study provides reliable information for the research of past temperature variability in the Qinling Mountains, China.

Vertical distribution characteristics of dust aerosol mass concentration in the Taklimakan Desert hinterland

The different height mass concentrations of dust aerosol data from the atmosphere environment observation station （Ta- zhong Station） was continuously observed by instruments of Grimm 1.108, Thermo RP 1400a and TSP from January of 2009 to February of 2010 in the Taklimakan Desert hinterland. Results show that： （1） The mass concentration value of 80 m PMl0 was higher, but PM2.5 and PM1.0 concentrations at 80 m was obviously lower than 4 m PMl0, and the value of 80 m PM1.0 mass concentration was the lowest. （2） The PM mass concentrations gradually decreased from night to sunrise, with the lowest concentration at 08：00, with the mass concentration gradually increased, up to the highest concentration around 18：00, and then decreased again. It was exactly the same with the changes of wind speed. （3） The high monthly average mass concentration of TSP mainly appeared from March to September, and the highest concentration was in April and May, subsequently gradually decreased. Also, March-September was a period with high value area of PM monthly average mass concentration, with the highest monthly average mass concentration of 846.0 p.g/m3 for 4 m PM^0 appeared in May. The concentration of PM10 was much higher than those of PM2.5 and PM1.0 at 80 m. There is a small difference between the concentration of PM2.5 and PM~ 0. Dust weather was the main factor which influenced the concentration content of the different diameter dust aerosol, and the more dust weather days, the higher content of coarse particle, conversely, fine particle was more. （4） The mass concentration of different diameter aerosols had the following sequence during dust weather： clear day 〈 blowing dust 〈 floating and blowing dust 〈 sandstorm. In different dust weather, the value of PM^o/TSP in fine weather was higher than that in floating weather, and much higher than those in blowing dust and sandstorm weather. （5） During the dust weather process, dust aerosol concentration gradually decreased with particle size decreasing. The dust aerosol mass concentration at different heights and diameter would have a peak value area every 3-4 days according to the strengthening process of dust weather.

August–September Runoff Variation in the Kara Darya River Determined from Juniper(Juniperus turkestanica) Tree Rings in the Pamirs-Alai Mountains, Kyrgyzstan, Back to 1411 CE

A 606 year runoff reconstruction of the Kara Darya River was developed, based on the tree-ring width chronology of Turkestan juniper(Juniperus turkestanica) from the Pamir-Alai Mountains of Kyrgyzstan. Preliminary comparison between the snow cover variation and these climate/runoff reconstructions found that Central Asian snow cover may have strong associations with large-scale ocean-atmosphere-land circulations. The runoff reconstruction demonstrated that instrumental runoff was not representative of runoff over the past 606 years. The drought of the 1960 s-1990 s resulted in low runoff levels during the past 50 years;however, this probably does not represent a worst-case scenario for the Kara Darya because the runoff reconstruction showed additional extremely low runoff prior to the 20 th century. The reconstruction will provide a long-term perspective on runoff variation in the Kara Darya River basin, aid sustainable water resource management and be useful in guiding expectations of future variations and water resource planning.

Analysis on the temporal-spatial distribution character and effect factors of PM10 in the hinterland of Taklimakan Desert and surrounding area

In recent years, the physical and chemical properties of dust aerosols from the dust source area in northem China have attracted increased attention. In this paper, Thermo RP 1400a was used for online continuous observation and study of the hinterland of Taldimakan, Tazhong, and surrounding areas of Kurnul and Hotan from 2004 to 2006. In combination with weather analysis during a sandstorm in the Tazhong area, basic characteristics and influencing factors of dust aerosol PMl0 have been summarized as below： （1） The occurrence days of floating dust and blowing dust appeared with an increasing trend in Kumul, Tazhong and Hotan, while the number of dust storm days did not significantly change. The frequency and intensity of dust weather were major factors affecting the concentration of dust aerosol PMI0 in the desert. （2） The mass concentration of PM10 had significant regional distribution characteris- tics, and the mass concentration at the eastern edge of Taklimakan, Kumul, was the lowest; second was the southern edge of the desert, Hotan; and the highest was in the hinterland of the desert, Tazhong. （3） High values of PM10 mass concentration in Kumul was from March to September each year; high values of PM^0 mass concentration in Tazhong and Hotan were distributed from March to August and the average concenlration changed from 500 to 1,000 gg/m3, respectively. （4） The average seasonal concentration changes of PM10 in Kumul, Tazhong and Hotan were： spring 〉 summer 〉 autumn 〉 winter; the highest average concentration of PMl0in Tazhong, was about 1,000 gg/m3 in spring and between 400 and 900 gg/m3 in summer, and the average concentration was lower in autumn and winter, basically between 200 and 400 gg/m3. （5） PMl0 concentration during the sandstorm season was just over two times the con- centration of the non-sandstorm season in Kumul, Tazhong and Hotan. The average concentrations of sandstorm season in Tazhong were 6.2 and 3.6 times the average concentrations of non-sandstorm season in 2004 and 2008, respectively. （6） The mass concentra- tion of PM10 had the following sequence during the dust weather： clear day 〈 floating dust 〈 floating and blowing dust 〈 sandstorm. The wind speed directly affects the concentration of PM10 in the atmosphere, the higher the wind speed, the higher the mass concen- tration. Temperature, relative humidity and bammelric pressure are important factors affecting the strength of storms, which could also indirectly affect the concentration change of PM~ 0 in the atmosphere.

A 602-year Reconstruction of July-June Streamflow in the Kuqa River, China, Reveals the Changing Hydrological Signals of the Tarim Basin

A regional tree-ring width chronology of Schrenk spruce(Picea schrenkiana) was used to determine the annual(previous July to current June) streamflow of the Kuqa River in Xinjiang, China, for the period of 1414–2015. A linear transformation of the tree-ring data accounted for 63.9% of the total variance when regressed against instrumental streamflow during 1957–2006. The model was validated by comparing the regression estimates against independent data. High streamflow periods with a streamflow above the 602-year mean occurred from 1430–1442, 1466–1492, 1557–1586, 1603–1615, 1687–1717, 1748–1767, 1795–1819, 1834–1856, 1888–1910 and 1989–2015. Low streamflow periods(streamflow below the mean) occurred from 1419–1429, 1443–1465, 1493–1556, 1587–1602, 1616–1686, 1720–1747, 1768–1794, 1820–1833, 1857–1887 and 1911–1988. The reconstruction compares well with the tree-ring-based streamflow series of the Tizinafu River from the Kunlun Mountains;both show well-known severe drought events. The streamflow reconstruction also shows highly synchronous upward trends since the 1980 s, suggesting that streamflow is related to Central Asian warming and humidification. Thus, the influences of the extremes and the persistence of low streamflows on local society may be considerable. Climatic changes in the watershed may be responsible for the change in the hydrologic regime of the Tarim Basin observed during the late twentieth century.

The spatial and temporal distribution and characteristics of inorganic ion concentrations of TSP in the Tarim Basin

Based on Total Suspended Particulates （TSP） observations of Tazhong, Tikanli, Kashi and Minfeng in 2009, combined wa- ter-soluble inorganic ion analyses, this paper studied the spatial and temporal distribution of TSP in the Tarim Basin and analyzed concentration characteristics. The results are as follows： （1） monthly average TSP concentrations shows a similar trend in Tazhong, Tikanli, Kashi and Minfeng with peak values in April-May and low values in November-December. As for the quarter average mass concentration trends, spring has the highest value, followed by summer and autumn, and winter is the lowest; （2） total annual concentration trend of water-soluble inorganic ions in TSP is as follows： Tazhong 〉 Tikanli 〉 Minfeng 〉 Kashi. SO4^2- concentra- tions are 58%, 50%, 54% and 51% of total ion concentration; Ca^2＋ concentrations are 13%, 16%, 16% and 11%; Na^＋ concentra- tions are 12%, 13%, 10% and 12% and Cl^- concentrations are 12%, 16%, 11% and 22%, respectively. Therefore, sulfate, calcium, sodium and chloride ions are the main inorganic components of TSP in the Tarim Basin; （3） the correlation coefficients of anions and cations in Tikanli, Minfeng, Kashi and Tazhong are 0.99, 0.99, 0.25 and 0.91, respectively; the average anion concentrations are 2.57, 2.12, 2.15 and 3.02 times the average cation concentrations, indicating that ions were unbalanced; （4） SO4^2-/NO3^- ratio is much larger than the ratio of coal-fired emissions SO4^2-/NO3^-, thus the impact of fixed emission sources in the four regions on the atmosphere is far greater than that of mobile emission sources.

The variation characteristics and effect factors of surface ozone concentration in the Taklimakan Desert hinterland

Based on automatic continuous surface ozone concentration observation data from June 10, 2010 to March 20, 2012 in the Taklimakan Desert hinterland, combined with corresponding meteorological data, the temporal, seasonal and daily variation characteristics of surface ozone concentrations under different weather conditions were analyzed. At the same time, the main fac- tors affecting ozone variation are discussed. Results show that： （1） Daily variation of ozone concentration was characterized by one obvious peak, with gentle changes during the night and dramatic changes during the day. The lowest concentration was at 09：00 and the highest was at 18：00. Compared to urban areas, there was a slight time delay. （2） Ozone concentration variation had a weekend effect phenomenon. Weekly variation of ozone concentration decreased from Monday to Wednesday with the lowest in Wednesday, and increased after Thursday with the highest in Sunday. （3） The highest monthly average concentration was 89.6 I.tg/m3 in June 2010, and the lowest was 32.0 ~g/m3 in January 2012. Ozone concentration reduced month by month from June to December in 2010. （4） Ozone concentration in spring and summer was higher than in autumn and winter. The variation trend agreed with those in other large and medium-sized cities. （5） Under four different types of weather, daily ozone concentration var- ied most dramatically in sunny days, followed by slight variation in rain days, and varied gently in cloudy days. Ozone concentra- tion varied inconspicuously before a sandstorm appearance, and dropped rapidly at the onset of a sandstorm. （6） Daily variation of radiation was also characterized by a single peak, and the variation was significantly earlier than ozone concentration variation. Sun radiation intensity had a direct influence on the photochemical reaction speed, leading to variation of ozone concentration. （7） Daily average ozone concentration in dust weather was higher than in slight rain and clear days. The variation of near surface ozone concentration could also be affected by meteorological factors such as relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction and sunshine hours. Thus, numerous factors working together led to ozone pollution.

Coupled Pacific Rim megadroughts contributed to the fall of the MingDynasty’s capital in 1644 CE

Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine period.However,the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains unclear.Here,we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from1576 to 1593 CE and from 1628 to 1644 CE in northern China,which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of Beijing.Our analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim,which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China,but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic pressures.This finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Ni?a-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China,as well as extensive monsoon regions in the Americas.These teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.

High-resolution reconstruction of April-September precipitation and major extreme droughts in China over the past∼530 years

Extreme drought events have increased,causing serious losses and damage to the social economy under current warming conditions.However,short-term meteorological data limit our understanding and projection of these extremes.With the accumulation of proxy data,especially tree-ring data,large-scale precipitation field reconstruction has provided opportunities to explore underlying mechanisms further.Using point-by-point regression,we reconstructed the April-September precipitation field in China for the past~530 years on the basis of 590 proxy records,including 470 tree-ring width chronologies and 120 drought/flood indices.Our regression models explained average 50%of the variance in precipitation.In the statistical test on calibration and verification,our models passed the significance level that assured reconstruction quality.The reconstruction data performed well,showing consistency and better quality than previously reported reconstructions.The first three leading modes of variability in the reconstruction revealed the main distribution modes of precipitation over China.Wet/drought and extremely wet/drought years accounted for 12.81%/10.92%(68 years/58 years)and 1.69%/3.20%(9 years/17 years)of the past~530 years in China,respectively.Major extreme drought events can be identified explicitly in our reconstruction.The detailed features of the Chongzhen Great Drought(1637-1643),the Wanli Great Drought(1585-1590),and the Ding-Wu Great Famine(1874-1879),indicated the existence of potentially different underlying mechanisms that need further exploration.Although further improvements can be made for remote uninhabited areas and large deserts,our gridded reconstruction of April-September precipitation in China over the past~530 years can provide a solid database for studies on the attribution of climate change and the mechanism of extreme drought events.

A 217-year precipitation reconstruction in the Habahe area, Xinjiang, Northeast China

Evaluating long-term changes in precipitation resources is important for accurate hydrological evaluation and forecasting,water security and rational allocation of water resources.For this purpose in the Xinjiang Habahe area,tree-ring specimens were collected from Picea obo-vata,Larix sibirica,and Betula platyphylla to establish a tree-ring width chronology,which was used to analyse a correlation with the average temperature and precipitation per month for 1958-2016.Based on correlation coefficients for monthly temperature and precipitation with the chro-nology of tree-ring widths,radial tree growth was mainly restricted by precipitation,and tree-ring width chronology was significantly correlated with overall precipitation from the previous July to the next June(r=0.641,P<0.01).The above results were used to establish a transformation equa-tion,and the overall precipitation from the previous July to the following June from 1800 to 2016 in Habahe was reconstructed after adjusted degrees of freedom,and obtain an explanatory rate of the variation up to 41.1%(40.0%).In addition to the reliability of the reconstructed values,the stability of the conversion function was determined via the“leave-one-out”method,which is commonly used in research on tree rings,and by cross-checking the conversion function with the reduced error value(RE),product mean test(t),with a sign test(ST).During the last 217 years,there were nine dry periods:1803-1829,1861-1865,1872-1885,1892-1905,1916-1923,1943-1954,1961-1966,1973-1981,and 2005-2011;and 12 wet periods:1830-1834,1836-1860,1866-1871,1886-1891,1906-1915,1925-1930,1934-1942,1955-1960,1967-1972,1982-1996,2000-2004,and 2012-2016.Comparisons of the reconstruc-tions for neighboring regions and a spatial correlation analy-sis showed that the reconstructed sequence of the present precipitation data better represented the changes in precipi-tation in Habahe.Additionally,a power spectrum analysis revealed that precipitation over the past 217 years in Habahe Province exhibited 2-5 years of quasiperiodic variation.A power spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis indicated that El Niño-Southern Oscillation influenced the precipitation cycles.This reconstruction provides more information on high-frequency precipitation,which is an important supple-ment to the existing tree-ring reconstruction of precipitation in the study area.The reconstruction of regional high-resolu-tion precipitation changes over the last several hundred years provides unique,important data for understanding regional differences in climate at the decadal-centennial scale.

Discussion of the“warming and wetting”trend and its future variation in the drylands of Northwest China under global warming

Since Shi et al.proposed that the climate in the drylands of Northwest China experienced a significant transition from a“warming and drying”trend to a“warming and wetting”trend in the 1980s,researchers have conducted numerous studies on the variations in precipitation and humidity in the region and even in arid Central Asia.In particular,the process of the“warming and wetting”trend by using obtained measurement data received much attention.However,there remain uncertainties about whether the“warming and wetting”trend has paused and what its future variations may be.In this study,we examined the spatiotemporal variations in temperature,precipitation,the aridity index(AI),vegetation,and runoff during 1950-2019.The results showed that the climate in the drylands of Northwest China and the northern Tibetan Plateau is persistently warming and wetting since the 1980s,with an acceleration since the 1990s.The precipitation/humidity variations in North China,which are mainly influenced by summer monsoon,are generally opposite to those in the drylands of Northwest China.This reverse change is mainly controlled by an anomalous anticyclone over Mongolia,which leads to an anomalous easterly wind,reduced water vapor output,and increased precipitation in the drylands of Northwest China.While it also causes an anomalous descending motion,increased water vapor divergence,and decreased precipitation in North China.Precipitation is the primary controlling factor of humidity,which ultimately forms the spatiotemporal pattern of the“westerlies-dominated climatic regime”of antiphase precipitation/humidity variations between the drylands of Northwest China and monsoonal region of North China.The primary reasons behind the debate of the“warming and wetting”trend in Northwest China were due to the use of different time series lengths,regional ranges,and humidity indices in previous analyses.Since the EC-Earth3 has a good performance for simulating precipitation and humidity in Northwest and North China.By using its simulated results,we found a wetting trend in the drylands of Northwest China under low emission scenarios,but the climate will gradually transition to a“warming and drying”trend as emissions increase.This study suggests that moderate warming can be beneficial for improving the ecological environment in the drylands of Northwest China,while precipitation and humidity in monsoon-dominated North China will persistently increase under scenarios of increased emissions.

基于白扦树轮蓝光强度的中国华北暖季温度重建

In the past 30 years,observational climate datasets reveal a significant a drying and warming trend over in North China.Understanding of climatic variability over North China and its driving mechanism in a long-term perspective is,however,limited to a few sites only,especially the lack of temperature reconstructions based on latewood density and blue intensity.In this study,we developed a 281-year latewood blue intensity chronology based on 45 cores of Picea meyeri in western North China.Based on the discovery that the warm season(May–August)mean maximum temperature is the main controlling factor affecting the change in blue light reflection intensity,we established a regression model that explained 37%of the variance during the calibration period(1950–2020),allowing to trace the mean maximum temperature up to 1760 CE.From the past 261 years,we identified seven persistent high temperature periods(1760–1773,1778–1796,1805–1814,1869–1880,1889–1934,1984–2000,2004–2020)and three persistent low temperature periods(1815–1868,1935–1963,1969–1983)in North China.Comparisons of a nearby temperature reconstructions and climate gridded data indicate that our reconstruction record a wide range of temperature variations in North China.The analysis of links between large-scale climatic variation and the temperature reconstruction showed that there is a relationship between extremes in the warm season temperature and anomalous SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific,and implied that the extremes in the warm season temperature in North China will be intensified under future global warming.