The characteristic differences of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea

The best track dataset of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific （WNP） and the South China Sea （SCS） from 1977 to 2005 during the satellite era, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature dataset are employed in this study. The main climatological characteristics of tropical cyclone formation over the WNP and the SCS are compared. It is found that there is obviously different for the locations of tropical cyclone origins, achieving the lowest central pressure and termination points between over the WNP and over the SCS. The annual number of tropical cyclones forming over the SCS is obviously less than over the WNP, and there is a significant negative correlation with the correlation coefficient being - 0.36 at the 5% significance level between over the WNP and over the SCS. The mean speed of tropical cyclone moving is 6.5 m/s over the WNP and 4.6 m/s over the SCS. The mean lowest central pressure of tropical cyclones is obviously weaker over the SCS than over the WNP. The tropical cyclone days per year, mean total distance and total displacement of tropical cyclone traveled over the WNP are all obviously longer than those over the SCS. Tropical cyclone may intensify to Saffir - Simpson hurricane scale 5 over the WNP, but no tropical cyclone can intensify to Saffir - Simpson hurricane scale 3 over the SCS. The changing ranges of the radii （R15,R16） of the 15.4 m/s winds them and the 25.7 m/s winds over the WNP are obviously wider than those over the SCS, and the median values of the radii over the WNP are also larger than those over the SCS. For the same intensity of tropical cyclones, both radii have larger medians over the WNP than over the SCS. The correlations of annual mean tropical cyclone size parameters between over the WNP and over the SCS are not significant. At the same time, the asymmetric radii of tropical cyclones over the WNP are different from those over the SCS.

DETERMINATION OF ONSET DATE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON IN 2006 USING LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATIONS

Since the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) is pronouncedly featured by abruptly intensified southwesterly and obviously increased precipitation over the SCS,the lower-tropospheric winds and/or convection intensities are widely used to determine the SCSSM onset.The methods can be used successfully in most of the years but not in 2006.Due to the intrusion of Typhoon Chanchu(0601)that year,the usual method of determining SCSSM onset date by utilizing the SCS regional indices is less capable of pinpointing the real onset date.In order to solve the problem,larger-scale situations have to be taken into account.Zonal and meridional circulations would be better to determine the break-out date of SCSSM in 2006.The result indicates that its onset date is May 16.Moreover,similar onset dates for other years can be obtained using various methods,implying that large-scale zonal and meridional circulations can be used as an alternative method for determining the SCSSM onset date.

Effects of South China Sea/western North Pacific summer monsoon on tropospheric biennial oscillation （TBO）

Several theories have been developed to explain tropical biennial oscillation （TBO）, as an air-sea interactive system to impact Asian and global weather and climate, and some models have been established to produce a TBO. A simple 5-box model, with almost all the key processes associated with TBO, can produce a TBO by including airsea interactions in the monsoon regions. Despite that, the South China Sea/western North Pacific summer monsoon （SCS/WNPSM）, a very important monsoon subsystem, is neglected. In this paper, based on the dynamical framework of 5-box model, the term of SCS/WNPSM has been added and a 6-box model has been developed. Comparing the difference of TBO sensibilities with several key parameters, air-sea coupling coefficient α, SST-thermocline feedback coefficient γand wind-evaporation feedback coefficient λ, between the modified model and original model, TBO is more sensible to the parameters in the new model. The results imply that the eastern Pacific and local wind-evaporation play more important roles in the TBO when including SCS /WNPSM.

CONNECTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON TO MARITIME CONTINENT CONVECTION AND ENSO

The relationship between the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) and the Nino3.4 index and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns associated with a strong and weak SCSSM are investigated using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) data and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data. The SCSSM is significantly positively correlated with the Nino3.4 index in the succeeding northern autumn and winter. In the strong minus weak SCSSM composite, a positive East Asia-Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern and a negative Europe-Asian-Pacific teleconnection (EUP) pattern appear in the 500 hPa height difference field; low-level cross-equatorial flows are strengthened over the Maritime Continent (MC) region; positive (negative) precipitation anomalies occur in the South China Sea and western north Pacific (MC). A possible mechanism through which SCSSM affects ENSO is proposed. A strong (weak) SCSSM strengthens (weakens) cross-equatorial flows over the MC. The anomalous cross-equatorial flows cool (warm) the SST around the MC through enhanced (reduced) surface latent heat fluxes. The cooling (warming) further leads to suppressed (enhanced) convection over the MC, and causes the anomalous westerly (easterly) in the equatorial western Pacific, which favors the onset of El Nio (La Nia) through modulating the positive air-sea feedback process.

FEATURES AND COMPARISONS OF THE QUASI-BIENNIAL VARIATIONS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC MONSOON SUBSYSTEMS

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, Climate Diagnostics Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) results, and NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST), have been utilized in this paper to study the quasi-biennial variations in Asia-Pacific monsoon subsystems and associated SST anomalies (SSTA) and wind anomalies. Four monsoon indices are computed from NCEP/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis to represent the South Asian monsoon (SAM), South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), Western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) and East Asian monsoon (EAM), respectively. The quasi-biennial periods are very significant in Asia-Pacific monsoons (as discovered by power spectrum analysis), and for SAM and EAM---with moderate effects by El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)---the quasi-biennial periods are the most important factor. For SCSSM and WNPM (once again due to the effects of ENSO), the quasi-biennial periods are of secondary durations. There are obvious interdecadal variations in the quasi-biennial modes of the Asia-Pacific monsoon, so in the negative phase the biennial modes will not be significant or outstanding. The wind anomalies and SSTA associated with the biennial modes are very different in the SAM, WNPM and EAM regions. Since the WNPM and SCSSM are very similar in the biennial modes, they can be combined into one subsystem, called SCS/WNPM.

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCIES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ITS AFFECTING OCEANIC FACTORS IN THE PAST 50 YEARS

The characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies over the South China Sea areas and its affecting factors in the past 50yrs are analyzed based on typhoon data that provided by CMA and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA). The results show that the tropical cyclone frequencies from June to October show concentrated geographic distribution, for they mainly distribute over the SCS area from 15 – 20°N. The characteristics present significant interdecadal changes. The impact of oceanic factors on the tropical cyclone frequencies in the SCS area is mainly realized by La Nia and La Nia-like events before 1975 but mainly by El Nio and El Nio-like events after 1975.

COMPARISON STUDY ON THE INTRASEASONAL VARIATIONS IN CIRCULATIONS AND PRECIPITATION MODULATED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA-WESTERN PACIFIC DURING GUANGDONG FLOODING PERIOD

Based on tropical cyclone datasets from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration,the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP,USA) reanalysis data and the rainfall records from 743 stations in China,the impacts of cyclogenesis number over the South China Sea and the western Pacific are studied on the 30-60-day oscillations in the precipitation of Guangdong during the flooding period.The year with more-than-normal (less-than-normal) tropical cyclogenesis is defined as a 'high year' ('low year').In light of the irregular periodic oscillations,the method used to construct the composite life cycle is based on nine consecutive phases in each of the cycles.Phases 1,3,5,and 7 correspond to,respectively,the time when precipitation anomalies reach theminimum,a positive transition (negative-turning-to-positive) phase,the maximum,and a negative transition phase.The results showed that the precipitation of the 30-60-day oscillations is associated with the interaction between a well-organized eastward propagation system from the Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal and a westward-propagating system (with cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the northwest-southeast direction) from the South China Sea to western Pacific during the high years,whereas the precipitation is affected during a low year by the circulation over the South China Sea and western Pacific (with cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the northeast-southwest direction).During the high year,the warm and wet air mass from the ocean to the west and south are transported to Guangdong by westerly anomalies and an enclosed latitudinal cell,which ascends in the Northern Hemisphere low latitudes and descends in the Southern Hemisphere low latitudes.During the low year,the warm and wet air mass from the ocean to the south is transported to Guangdong by southwesterly wind anomalies and local ascending movements.Because the kinetic energy,westerly,easterly shift,vertical velocity and vapor transportation averaged over (109-119° E,10-20° N) is stronger in high years than those in low years,the precipitation of the 30-60-day oscillations in Guangdong is higher in high years than that in low years.

Characteristics of the Boundary Layer Structure of Sea Fog on the Coast of Southern China

Using boundary layer data with regard to sea fog observed at the Science Experiment Base for Marine Meteorology at Bohe,Guangdong Province,the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer and the characteristics of the tops of the fog and the clouds were analyzed.In addition,the effects of advection,radiation,and turbulence during sea fog were also investigated.According to the stability definition of saturated,wet air,the gradient of the potential pseudo-equivalent temperature equal to zero was defined as the thermal turbulence interface.There is evidence to suggest that two layers of turbulence exist in sea fog.Thermal turbulence produced by long-wave radiation is prevalent above the thermal turbulence interface,whereas mechanical turbulence aroused by wind shear is predominant below the interface.The height of the thermal turbulence interface was observed between 180 m and 380 m.Three important factors are closely related to the development of the top of the sea fog：（1） the horizontal advection of the water vapor,（2） the long-wave radiation of the fog top,and（3） the movement of the vertical turbulence.Formation,development,and dissipation are the three possible phases of the evolution of the boundary-layer structure during the sea fog season.In addition,the thermal turbulence interface is the most significant turbulence interface during the formation and development periods;it is maintained after sea fog rises into the stratus layer.

Interdecadal variability of the tropospheric biennial oscillation in the western North Pacific

The observed tropospheric biennial oscillation （TBO） in the western North Pacific （WNP） monsoon region has an interdecadal variability with a period of 40-50 yr. That suggests a weaker effect of the TBO on the East Asia followed by a stronger one. A simple analytic model was designed to investigate the mechanism of the interdecadal variability of the TBO. The results indicated that a local TBO air-sea system not only supports the TBO variability in the WNP monsoon region but also produces an interdecadal variability of the TBO.

THE STRONG DRAGON BOAT RACE PRECIPITATION OF GUANGDONG IN 2008 AND QUASI-10-DAY OSCILLATION

Guangdong suffered from the most serious precipitation of its corresponding time during the dragon-boat race of 2008 since 1951.The relationship between the strong dragon-boat precipitation in 2008 and atmospheric low-frequency oscillation was analyzed with the methods of wavelet analysis,correlation and Lanczos filter.Results showed that the daily rainfall exhibits a significant 7 to 12-day quasi-periodic oscillation(namely quasi-10-day oscillation) during the precipitation,the daily 500 hPa height over Guangdong exhibits a significant 8 to 13-day quasi-periodic oscillation,and the daily 850 hPa zonal wind averaged over the north of the South China Sea presents a significant quasi-12-day periodic oscillation.The Guangdong rainfall during the annually first rainy season is most closely correlated with monsoon over the north of South China Sea,and less closely with an upper-level trough at 500 hPa affecting Guangdong.Strong monsoon surges induced two heavy rainfall processes in 2008.The monsoon surges joined with a westward-propagating quasi-10-day oscillation that originated from the central Pacific and was enhanced in a strong convective region east of the Philippines and a northward-propagating monsoon that originated from the southern South China Sea was enhanced.With composite analysis of typical phases,the common evolution characteristics of atmospheric circulation of the two heavy rainfall processes were analyzed for different phases.These features can be used as reference for medium prediction of heavy rainfall processes in Guangdong.

THE VARIATION OF THE SPRING PRECIPITATION IN GUANGZHOU AND ITS PRECURSORY SIGNALS

Guangzhou spring rainfall mainly exhibits interannual variation of Quasi-biannual andinterdecadal variation of 30 yrs, and is in the period of weak rainfall at interdecadal time scale.SST anomalies (SSTA) of Nino3 are the strongest precursor of Guangzhou spring rainfall. Theyhave significant positive correlation from previous November and persist stably to April. Nino3SSTA in the previous winter affects Guangzhou spring rainfall through North Pacific subtropicalhigh and low wind in spring. When Nino3 SSTA is positive in the previous winter, springsubtropical high is intense and westward, South China is located in the area of ascending airflow atthe edge of the subtropical high, and water vapor transporting to South China is intensified byanticyclone circulation to the east of the Philippines. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is heavy. WhenNino3 SSTA is negative, the subtropical high is weak and eastward, South China is far away fromthe subtropical high and is located in the area of descending airflow, and water vapor transportingto South China is weak because low-level cyclonic circulation controls areas to the east of thePhilippines and north wind prevails in South China. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is weak andspring drought is resulted.

STUDY ON THE CAUSE OF HEAVY RAIN 200506 (HR200506) IN GUANGDONG

A continuous heavy rain visited Guangdong province during June 18-25, 2005 (named Heavy Rain 200506, HR200506) and had resulted in enormous economic loss. The ageostropic Q vectors, θse, meridional circulation, computed from the NCEP reanalysis, and TBB are used to study the rainfall processes. The results indicated that a convective system moved northwards from the South China Sea (SCS) and stayed in Guangdong for several days, which was a direct cause of HR200506. The process is a result of the activity of the South China Sea summer monsoon. There were two rainbands of HR200506 in Guangdong. One laid in the north of Guangdong that produced frontal rainfall; another situated on the south of Guangdong which produced monsoon rainfall.

VARIATION AND CAUSES OF PERSISTENT DROUGHT EVENTS IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE

Variation characteristics of persistent drought events in Guangdong province are analyzed using 45-year(1961-2005) and 86-station observational precipitation data of Guangdong,and the causes of drought events are discussed from different angles(e.g.,atmospheric circulation,sea surface temperature) on the basis of global coverage datasets of sea surface temperature and atmospheric elements.It is found that the occurrence frequency of persistent drought events in Guangdong province is once every 26 months on average,and autumn-winter or winter-spring persistent drought events take up the majority.The persistent drought events possess large scale spatial characteristics.While the 1960s is the most frequent and strongest decade of drought events in the latter half of the 20th century,the occurrence is more frequent and the intensity is stronger in the first five years of the 21st century(2001-2005).This reflects the response of regional extreme climatic events in Guangdong to global climatic change.The atmospheric circulation,sea surface temperature,etc,appear to have different abnormal characteristics when drought events happen in different seasons.The results of this paper provide some good reference information for the drought forecast,especially for the dynamic interpretation of climatic model products.

Dynamical mechanism of the stratospheric quasibiennial oscillation impact on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon

The National Center for the Atmospheric Research (NCAR) middle atmospheric model is used to study the effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratosphere (QBO) on the tropopause and uppe troposphere, and the relationship between the QBO and South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM is explored through NCEP (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR, ECMWF (Euro pean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) monthly mean wind data and in situ sounding data The simulations show that the QBO-induced residual circulations propagate downwards, and affect the tropopause and upper troposphere during the periods of mid-late QBO phase and phase transition Meanwhile, diagnostic analyses indicate that anomalous circulation similar to SCSSM circulation is generated to strengthen the SCSSM during the easterly phase and anomalous Hadley-like circulation weakens the SCSSM during the westerly. Though the QBO has effects on the SCSSM by meridiona circulation, it is not a sole mechanism on the SCSSM TBO mode.

Effect of atmospheric aerosol on surface ozone variation over the Pearl River Delta region

Our analysis of the surface aerosol and ultraviolet(UV) measurements in Pearl River Delta(PRD) region shows that the sur-face UV radiation is reduced by more than 50% due to high aerosol concentrations.This has important impacts on urban eco-system and photochemistry,especially on ozone photochemical production over the region.The quantitative effect of aerosols on surface ozone is evaluated by analyzing surface observations(including ozone,ultraviolet radiation,aerosol radiative pa-rameters) and by using radiative and chemical models.A case study shows that the aerosol concentrations and UV radiation are significantly correlated with ozone concentrations.The correlation coefficient between the aerosol optical depth(AOD) and the PM10 mass concentration is very high,with a maximum of 0.98,and the AOD and UV radiation/ozone is anti-correlated,with a correlation coefficient of -0.90.The analysis suggests that ozone productivity is significantly decreased due to the reduction of UV radiation.The noon-time ozone maximum is considerably depressed when AOD is 0.6,and is further decreased when AOD is up to 1.2 due to the reduction of ozone photochemical productivity.Because the occurring probability of aerosol optical depth for AOD550 nm≥0.6 and AOD340 nm≥1.0 is 47,and 55% respectively during the dry season(October,November,December,January),this heavy aerosol condition explains the low ozone maximum that often occurs in the dry season over the Guangzhou region.The analysis also suggests that the value of single scattering albedo(SSA) is very sensitive to the aerosol radiative effect when the radiative and chemical models are applied,implying that the value of SSA needs to be carefully studied when the models are used in calculating ozone production.

The coral grayness in northern South China Sea and its description of interdecadal variation of precipitation in south China

The interdecadal variation of coral grayness in northern South China Sea (SCS) is studied using the annual mean coral grayness in northern SCS from 1789 to 1992 and annual precipitation at Guangzhou from 1908 to 1992 by Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), correlation analysis, Mann-Kendall’s abrupt change analysis and composite analysis. The interdecadal variation of south China precipitation as reflected by the series of Guangzhou precipitation rebuilt with the coral grayness is discussed. The results show that the variation of coral grayness in SCS has significant terms of tendency, much-weighted interdecadal variation and weak interannual variation. There was a century-scale abrupt change of coral grayness at the end of the 1880s that changed from positive anomalies to negative anomalies. The global field of SST difference corresponding to the point of abrupt change was negative anomalies over the SCS and neighboring northern Indian Ocean, most of central and western Pacific Ocean and coastal areas of the northern Atlantic Ocean. The large-scale distribution of SST anomalies is concomitant with the century-scale abrupt change of coral grayness in SCS. Negative correlation exists between the coralgrayness in SCS and precipitation in Guangzhou on the interdecadal scale and the interdecadal precipitation in Guangzhou as reflected by the interdecadaldata of SCS coral grayness shows that the interdecadal variation of south China precipitation changes significantly from phase to phase. The current study aims at contributing in the effort of identifying alternative indexes for climate change in south China on the interdecadal scale and beyond.