If an explicit time scheme is used in a numerical model, the size of the integration time step is typically limited by the spatial resolution. This study develops a regular latitude–longitude grid-based global three-...If an explicit time scheme is used in a numerical model, the size of the integration time step is typically limited by the spatial resolution. This study develops a regular latitude–longitude grid-based global three-dimensional tracer transport model that is computationally stable at large time-step sizes. The tracer model employs a finite-volume flux-form semiLagrangian transport scheme in the horizontal and an adaptively implicit algorithm in the vertical. The horizontal and vertical solvers are coupled via a straightforward operator-splitting technique. Both the finite-volume scheme's onedimensional slope-limiter and the adaptively implicit vertical solver's first-order upwind scheme enforce monotonicity. The tracer model permits a large time-step size and is inherently conservative and monotonic. Idealized advection test cases demonstrate that the three-dimensional transport model performs very well in terms of accuracy, stability, and efficiency. It is possible to use this robust transport model in a global atmospheric dynamical core.展开更多
With the extreme drought(flood)event in southern China from July to August in 2022(1999)as the research object,based on the comprehensive diagnosis and composite analysis on the anomalous drought and flood years from ...With the extreme drought(flood)event in southern China from July to August in 2022(1999)as the research object,based on the comprehensive diagnosis and composite analysis on the anomalous drought and flood years from July to August in 1961-2022,it is found that there are significant differences in the characteristics of the vertically integrated moisture flux(VIMF)anomaly circulation pattern and the VIMF convergence(VIMFC)anomaly in southern China in drought and flood years,and the VIMFC,a physical quantity,can be regarded as an indicative physical factor for the"strong signal"of drought and flood in southern China.Specifically,in drought years,the VIMF anomaly in southern China is an anticyclonic circulation pattern and the divergence characteristics of the VIMFC are prominent,while those are opposite in flood years.Based on the SST anomaly in the typical draught year of 2022 in southern China and the SST deviation distribution characteristics of abnormal draught and flood years from 1961 to 2022,five SST high impact areas(i.e.,the North Pacific Ocean,Northwest Pacific Ocean,Southwest Pacific Ocean,Indian Ocean,and East Pacific Ocean)are selected via the correlation analysis of VIMFC and the global SST in the preceding months(May and June)and in the study period(July and August)in 1961-2022,and their contributions to drought and flood in southern China are quantified.Our study reveals not only the persistent anomalous variation of SST in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean but also its impact on the pattern of moisture transport.Furthermore,it can be discovered from the positive and negative phase fitting of SST that the SST composite flow field in high impact areas can exhibit two types of anomalous moisture transport structures that are opposite to each other,namely an anticyclonic(cyclonic)circulation pattern anomaly in southern China and the coastal areas of east China.These two types of opposite anomalous moisture transport structures can not only drive the formation of drought(flood)in southern China but also exert its influence on the persistent development of the extreme weather.展开更多
利用第二次青藏高原科学考察及其他数据,结合5层网格嵌套、高分辨率(最高333 m)的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)可分辨云数值模拟,研究了局地山谷风环流在青藏高原东南林芝地区2019年9月17~18日一次地形云和降水形成过程中的...利用第二次青藏高原科学考察及其他数据,结合5层网格嵌套、高分辨率(最高333 m)的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)可分辨云数值模拟,研究了局地山谷风环流在青藏高原东南林芝地区2019年9月17~18日一次地形云和降水形成过程中的作用。结果表明,此次降水过程由西风槽天气过境造成,林芝位于西风槽底部,具有弱不稳定层结,云和降水过程呈现明显的午后、傍晚和凌晨三个阶段的变化特征,并且发现局地山谷风环流在这三个阶段的变化中具有重要作用。午后阶段,由于山区强烈的太阳辐射加热,首先产生明显的上坡风和强上谷风环流,在山坡迎风坡受阻挡抬升,并激发出强的地形波,产生了强对流云和降水;傍晚阶段,由于山脉强烈的长波辐射冷却效应,产生的强下坡风在谷底辐合抬升,促进了山谷上空的弱对流、层状云发展;凌晨阶段,下坡风达到最强,产生了强下谷风环流(山风),下坡风在谷底产生强烈的抬升作用,形成深厚的层状云降水过程。展开更多
During June-July 2020,the strongest recorded mei-yu rainfall occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The rainfall processes exhibited an obvious quasi-biweekly(biweekly in brief)variability,and t...During June-July 2020,the strongest recorded mei-yu rainfall occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The rainfall processes exhibited an obvious quasi-biweekly(biweekly in brief)variability,and there are altogether five cycles.It is found that the biweekly rainfall cycle mainly arises from the collaborative effects of biweekly variabilities from both the tropics and extratropics.As for the tropics,the biweekly meridional march and retreat of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)is particularly evident.As for the extratropics,geopotential height anomalies near Lake Baikal are active.The former is attributed to the intensified biweekly activity of the southwest-northeast oriented EastAsian Pacific wave train(EAP)originating from the tropical western Pacific,while the latter is associated with the biweekly activities of the eastward propagating Eurasia mid-high latitudinal wave train and the westward propagating North Pacific wave train.Why the biweekly activities of these wave trains intensified is further diagnosed from the perspective of thermodynamical forcing and also from the modulation of interannual background on intraseasonal variability.It is found that the strongest recorded convection anchoring over the tropical western Indian Ocean(IO)triggers anomalous descent over the tropical western Pacific,which modulates the biweekly activity of the EAP.Meanwhile,the anomalous diabatic heating over the IO causes changes of the meridional thermodynamic contrast across the IO to the high latitudes,which modulates the extratropical wave trains.A further diagnosis of barotropic kinetic energy conversion suggests that the active occurrence of two extratropical biweekly wave trains is attributed to the increased efficiency of energy conversion from basic flow.The westward propagation of the extratropical North Pacific wave train is attributed to the weakened and northshifted upper-level westerly,which is caused by the SST warmth near the Kuroshio extension.展开更多
The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection.Accordingly,various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date.Howeve...The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection.Accordingly,various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date.However,the onset dates as determined by various indices can be very inconsistent.It not only limits the determination of onset dates but also misleads the assessment of prediction skills.In 2021,the onset time as identified by the circulation criteria was 20 May,which is 12 days earlier than that deduced by also considering the convection criteria.The present study mainly ascribes such circulation-convection inconsistency to the activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).The convection of TC“Yaas”(2021)acted as an upper-level diabatic heat source to the north of the SCS,facilitating the circulation transition.Afterward,TC“Choi-wan”(2021)over the western Pacific aided the westerlies to persist at lower levels while simultaneously suppressing moist convection over the SCS.Accurate predictions using the ECMWF S2S forecast system were obtained only after the MJO formation.The skillful prediction of the MJO during late spring may provide an opportunity to accurately predict the establishment of the SCSSM several weeks in advance.展开更多
Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 201...Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 2019.Results indicate that approximately 10% of TCs making landfall in China produce PREs over the YRD region;however,they are seldom forecasted. PREs often occur over the YRD region when TCs begin to be active in the SCS-WNPO with westward paths, whilst the cold air is still existing or beginning to be present. PREs are more likely to peak in June and September. The distances between the PRE centers and the parent TC range from 900 to 1700 km. The median value of rain amounts and the median lifetime of PREs is approximately 200 mm and 24 h, respectively. Composite results suggest that PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of the upper-level westerly jet(WJ), where a 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge is located east of a 500-hPa trough. Deep moisture is transported from the TC vicinity to the remote PREs region. The ascent of this deep moist air in front of the 500-hPa trough and frontogenesis beneath the equatorward entrance region of the WJ is advantageous for the occurrence of PREs in the YRD region. The upper-level WJ may be affected by the subtropical high and westerly trough in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and the occurrence of PREs may favor the maintenance of the upper-level WJ. The upper-level outflow of TCs in the SCS plays a secondary role.展开更多
The influence of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on the subseasonal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) event is investigated by utilizing the Community Atmospheric Model version 4. The optimal Arcti...The influence of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on the subseasonal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) event is investigated by utilizing the Community Atmospheric Model version 4. The optimal Arctic SIC perturbations which exert the greatest influence on the onset of an NAO event from a lead of three pentads (15 days) are obtained with a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach. Numerical results show that there are two types of optimal Arctic SIC perturbations for each NAO event, with one weakening event (marked as type-1) and another strengthening event (marked as type-2). For positive NAO events, type-1 optimal SIC perturbations mainly show positive SIC anomalies in the Greenland, Barents, and Okhotsk Seas, while type-2 perturbations mainly feature negative SIC anomalies in these regions. For negative NAO events, the optimal SIC perturbations have almost opposite patterns to those in positive events, although there are some differences among these SIC perturbations due to different atmospheric initial conditions. Further diagnosis reveals that the optimal Arctic SIC perturbations first modify the surface turbulent heat flux and the temperature in the lower troposphere via diabatic processes. Afterward, the temperature in the low troposphere is mainly affected by dynamic advection. Finally, potential vorticity advection plays a crucial role in the 500-hPa geopotential height prediction in the northern North Atlantic sector during pentad 4, which influences NAO event prediction. These results highlight the importance of Arctic SIC on NAO event prediction and the spatial characteristics of the SIC perturbations may provide scientific support for target observations of SIC in improving NAO subseasonal predictions.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42075153)the Young Scientists Fund of the Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre (Grant No. CEMC-QNJJ-2022014)。
文摘If an explicit time scheme is used in a numerical model, the size of the integration time step is typically limited by the spatial resolution. This study develops a regular latitude–longitude grid-based global three-dimensional tracer transport model that is computationally stable at large time-step sizes. The tracer model employs a finite-volume flux-form semiLagrangian transport scheme in the horizontal and an adaptively implicit algorithm in the vertical. The horizontal and vertical solvers are coupled via a straightforward operator-splitting technique. Both the finite-volume scheme's onedimensional slope-limiter and the adaptively implicit vertical solver's first-order upwind scheme enforce monotonicity. The tracer model permits a large time-step size and is inherently conservative and monotonic. Idealized advection test cases demonstrate that the three-dimensional transport model performs very well in terms of accuracy, stability, and efficiency. It is possible to use this robust transport model in a global atmospheric dynamical core.
基金The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)Program(2019QZKK0105)the Science and Technology Development Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2022KJ022)+2 种基金Special Fund for the Basic Scientific Research Expenses of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2021Z013)the Science and Technology Development Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2022KJ021)Major Projects of the Natural Science Foundation of China(91337000)。
文摘With the extreme drought(flood)event in southern China from July to August in 2022(1999)as the research object,based on the comprehensive diagnosis and composite analysis on the anomalous drought and flood years from July to August in 1961-2022,it is found that there are significant differences in the characteristics of the vertically integrated moisture flux(VIMF)anomaly circulation pattern and the VIMF convergence(VIMFC)anomaly in southern China in drought and flood years,and the VIMFC,a physical quantity,can be regarded as an indicative physical factor for the"strong signal"of drought and flood in southern China.Specifically,in drought years,the VIMF anomaly in southern China is an anticyclonic circulation pattern and the divergence characteristics of the VIMFC are prominent,while those are opposite in flood years.Based on the SST anomaly in the typical draught year of 2022 in southern China and the SST deviation distribution characteristics of abnormal draught and flood years from 1961 to 2022,five SST high impact areas(i.e.,the North Pacific Ocean,Northwest Pacific Ocean,Southwest Pacific Ocean,Indian Ocean,and East Pacific Ocean)are selected via the correlation analysis of VIMFC and the global SST in the preceding months(May and June)and in the study period(July and August)in 1961-2022,and their contributions to drought and flood in southern China are quantified.Our study reveals not only the persistent anomalous variation of SST in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean but also its impact on the pattern of moisture transport.Furthermore,it can be discovered from the positive and negative phase fitting of SST that the SST composite flow field in high impact areas can exhibit two types of anomalous moisture transport structures that are opposite to each other,namely an anticyclonic(cyclonic)circulation pattern anomaly in southern China and the coastal areas of east China.These two types of opposite anomalous moisture transport structures can not only drive the formation of drought(flood)in southern China but also exert its influence on the persistent development of the extreme weather.
文摘利用第二次青藏高原科学考察及其他数据,结合5层网格嵌套、高分辨率(最高333 m)的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)可分辨云数值模拟,研究了局地山谷风环流在青藏高原东南林芝地区2019年9月17~18日一次地形云和降水形成过程中的作用。结果表明,此次降水过程由西风槽天气过境造成,林芝位于西风槽底部,具有弱不稳定层结,云和降水过程呈现明显的午后、傍晚和凌晨三个阶段的变化特征,并且发现局地山谷风环流在这三个阶段的变化中具有重要作用。午后阶段,由于山区强烈的太阳辐射加热,首先产生明显的上坡风和强上谷风环流,在山坡迎风坡受阻挡抬升,并激发出强的地形波,产生了强对流云和降水;傍晚阶段,由于山脉强烈的长波辐射冷却效应,产生的强下坡风在谷底辐合抬升,促进了山谷上空的弱对流、层状云发展;凌晨阶段,下坡风达到最强,产生了强下谷风环流(山风),下坡风在谷底产生强烈的抬升作用,形成深厚的层状云降水过程。
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFA0606403)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41731177 and 41790473)。
文摘During June-July 2020,the strongest recorded mei-yu rainfall occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The rainfall processes exhibited an obvious quasi-biweekly(biweekly in brief)variability,and there are altogether five cycles.It is found that the biweekly rainfall cycle mainly arises from the collaborative effects of biweekly variabilities from both the tropics and extratropics.As for the tropics,the biweekly meridional march and retreat of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)is particularly evident.As for the extratropics,geopotential height anomalies near Lake Baikal are active.The former is attributed to the intensified biweekly activity of the southwest-northeast oriented EastAsian Pacific wave train(EAP)originating from the tropical western Pacific,while the latter is associated with the biweekly activities of the eastward propagating Eurasia mid-high latitudinal wave train and the westward propagating North Pacific wave train.Why the biweekly activities of these wave trains intensified is further diagnosed from the perspective of thermodynamical forcing and also from the modulation of interannual background on intraseasonal variability.It is found that the strongest recorded convection anchoring over the tropical western Indian Ocean(IO)triggers anomalous descent over the tropical western Pacific,which modulates the biweekly activity of the EAP.Meanwhile,the anomalous diabatic heating over the IO causes changes of the meridional thermodynamic contrast across the IO to the high latitudes,which modulates the extratropical wave trains.A further diagnosis of barotropic kinetic energy conversion suggests that the active occurrence of two extratropical biweekly wave trains is attributed to the increased efficiency of energy conversion from basic flow.The westward propagation of the extratropical North Pacific wave train is attributed to the weakened and northshifted upper-level westerly,which is caused by the SST warmth near the Kuroshio extension.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42005011, 41830969)the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of CAMS (Grant Nos. 2021Z004)supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection.Accordingly,various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date.However,the onset dates as determined by various indices can be very inconsistent.It not only limits the determination of onset dates but also misleads the assessment of prediction skills.In 2021,the onset time as identified by the circulation criteria was 20 May,which is 12 days earlier than that deduced by also considering the convection criteria.The present study mainly ascribes such circulation-convection inconsistency to the activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).The convection of TC“Yaas”(2021)acted as an upper-level diabatic heat source to the north of the SCS,facilitating the circulation transition.Afterward,TC“Choi-wan”(2021)over the western Pacific aided the westerlies to persist at lower levels while simultaneously suppressing moist convection over the SCS.Accurate predictions using the ECMWF S2S forecast system were obtained only after the MJO formation.The skillful prediction of the MJO during late spring may provide an opportunity to accurately predict the establishment of the SCSSM several weeks in advance.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42105004, 41930967, 42192554, and 42105011)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China (Grant No. LQ20D050001)the Scientific Research Foundation of Hangzhou Normal University (Grant No. 2020QDL015)。
文摘Predecessor rain events(PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region associated with the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean(SCS-WNPO) tropical cyclones(TCs) are investigated during the period from 2010 to 2019.Results indicate that approximately 10% of TCs making landfall in China produce PREs over the YRD region;however,they are seldom forecasted. PREs often occur over the YRD region when TCs begin to be active in the SCS-WNPO with westward paths, whilst the cold air is still existing or beginning to be present. PREs are more likely to peak in June and September. The distances between the PRE centers and the parent TC range from 900 to 1700 km. The median value of rain amounts and the median lifetime of PREs is approximately 200 mm and 24 h, respectively. Composite results suggest that PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of the upper-level westerly jet(WJ), where a 925-hPa equivalent potential temperature ridge is located east of a 500-hPa trough. Deep moisture is transported from the TC vicinity to the remote PREs region. The ascent of this deep moist air in front of the 500-hPa trough and frontogenesis beneath the equatorward entrance region of the WJ is advantageous for the occurrence of PREs in the YRD region. The upper-level WJ may be affected by the subtropical high and westerly trough in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and the occurrence of PREs may favor the maintenance of the upper-level WJ. The upper-level outflow of TCs in the SCS plays a secondary role.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42288101,41790475,42005046,and 41775001).
文摘The influence of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on the subseasonal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) event is investigated by utilizing the Community Atmospheric Model version 4. The optimal Arctic SIC perturbations which exert the greatest influence on the onset of an NAO event from a lead of three pentads (15 days) are obtained with a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach. Numerical results show that there are two types of optimal Arctic SIC perturbations for each NAO event, with one weakening event (marked as type-1) and another strengthening event (marked as type-2). For positive NAO events, type-1 optimal SIC perturbations mainly show positive SIC anomalies in the Greenland, Barents, and Okhotsk Seas, while type-2 perturbations mainly feature negative SIC anomalies in these regions. For negative NAO events, the optimal SIC perturbations have almost opposite patterns to those in positive events, although there are some differences among these SIC perturbations due to different atmospheric initial conditions. Further diagnosis reveals that the optimal Arctic SIC perturbations first modify the surface turbulent heat flux and the temperature in the lower troposphere via diabatic processes. Afterward, the temperature in the low troposphere is mainly affected by dynamic advection. Finally, potential vorticity advection plays a crucial role in the 500-hPa geopotential height prediction in the northern North Atlantic sector during pentad 4, which influences NAO event prediction. These results highlight the importance of Arctic SIC on NAO event prediction and the spatial characteristics of the SIC perturbations may provide scientific support for target observations of SIC in improving NAO subseasonal predictions.
