A Tutorial Review of the Solar Power Curve: Regressions, Model Chains, and Their Hybridization and Probabilistic Extensions

Owing to the persisting hype in pushing toward global carbon neutrality,the study scope of atmospheric science is rapidly expanding.Among numerous trending topics,energy meteorology has been attracting the most attention hitherto.One essential skill of solar energy meteorologists is solar power curve modeling,which seeks to map irradiance and auxiliary weather variables to solar power,by statistical and/or physical means.In this regard,this tutorial review aims to deliver a complete overview of those fundamental scientific and engineering principles pertaining to the solar power curve.Solar power curves can be modeled in two primary ways,one of regression and the other of model chain.Both classes of modeling approaches,alongside their hybridization and probabilistic extensions,which allow accuracy improvement and uncertainty quantification,are scrutinized and contrasted thoroughly in this review.

A Concise Overview on Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting

China’s recently announced directive on tackling climate change,namely,to reach carbon peak by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,has led to an unprecedented nationwide response among the academia and industry.Under such a directive,a rapid increase in the grid penetration rate of solar in the near future can be fully anticipated.Although solar radiation is an atmospheric process,its utilization,as to produce electricity,has hitherto been handled by engineers.In that,it is thought important to bridge the two fields,atmospheric sciences and solar engineering,for the common good of carbon neutrality.In thisüberreview,all major aspects pertaining to solar resource assessment and forecasting are discussed in brief.Given the size of the topic at hand,instead of presenting technical details,which would be overly lengthy and repetitive,the overarching goal of this review is to comprehensively compile a catalog of some recent,and some not so recent,review papers,so that the interested readers can explore the details on their own.

A Case Study of Impact of FY-2C Satellite Data in Cloud Analysis to Improve Short-Range Precipitation Forecast

Chinese FengYun-2C(FY-2C) satellite data were combined into the Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) model to obtain three-dimensional cloud parameters and rain content. These parameters analyzed by LAPS were used to initialize the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System model(GRAPES) in China to predict precipitation in a rainstorm case in the country. Three prediction experiments were conducted and were used to investigate the impacts of FY-2C satellite data on cloud analysis of LAPS and on short range precipitation forecasts. In the first experiment, the initial cloud fields was zero value. In the second, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS without combining the satellite data. In the third experiment, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS including satellite data. The results indicated that the FY-2C satellite data combination in LAPS can show more realistic cloud distributions, and the model simulation for precipitation in 1–6 h had certain improvements over that when satellite data and complex cloud analysis were not applied.

Recent Progress in Atmospheric Observation Research in China

Recent progress in atmospheric observation techniques, observational systems and their application in China are reviewed. According to different observational platforms, the review is presented in three sections, i.e., satellite remote sensing （SRS）, ground-based observation technologies and applications, and aircraft/balloon measurements. The section ＂satellite remote sensing＂ presents advances in SRS techniques, SRS of clouds and aerosols, and SRS of trace gases and temperature/moisture profiles. The section ＂groundbased observation technologies and applications＂ focuses on research such as lidar systems and applications, sun/sky radiometer and broadband radiation observations, weather radar and wind profilers, GPS measurements, and some new concept systems. The section ＂aircraft/balloon measurements＂ presents some newly developed aircraft- and balloon-based sounding techniques.

Cloud Base Height and Effective Cloud Emissivity Retrieval with Ground-Based Infrared Interferometer

Based on ground-based Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) observations in Shouxian, Anhui province, China, the authors retrieve the cloud base height (CBH) and effective cloud emissivity by using the minimum root-mean-square difference method. This method was originally developed for satellite remote sensing. The high-temporal-resolution retrieval results can depict the trivial variations of the zenith clouds continu-ously. The retrieval results are evaluated by comparing them with observations by the cloud radar. The comparison shows that the retrieval bias is smaller for the middle and low cloud, especially for the opaque cloud. When two layers of clouds exist, the retrieval results reflect the weighting radiative contribution of the multi-layer cloud. The retrieval accuracy is affected by uncertainties of the AERI radiances and sounding profiles, in which the role of uncertainty in the temperature profile is dominant.

Observation and study on the whole process of cloud-to-ground lightning using narrowband radio interferometer

A narrowband radio interferometer has been developed and used to locate the entire sources of VHF radiations from a negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharge which contains 19 strokes. This system uses five antennas to form an array consisting of short- and long-baselines along two or- thogonal directions. The system error which comes from frequency conversion is reduced by phase detection through direct high frequency amplifying. An interactive graphic analysis procedure is used to remove the fringe ambiguities which exist inherently in interferometry and to determine the direction of lightning radiation sources in two dimensions (azimuth and elevation) as a function of time at a time resolution of microsecond orders. With the developed system, the whole progression process in time and space of a lightning flash can be reconstructed. In this paper, combining the synchronous data of electric filed change and VHF radiation, the whole processes of an example negative CG flash have been studied in detail. It is found that the preliminary breakdown event of the CG flash started from negative charge region and exhibited firstly a downward pregression and then an upward propagation. There were very intense and continuous radiations during stepped leaders which became much stronger when the first return stroke began. In contrast, there were less and only discrete radiations during dart leaders. Stepped leader and dart leader may transform to each other depending on the state of the ionization of the path. The progression speed of initial stepped leaders was about 105 ms?1, while that was about 4.1×106 and 6.0×106 ms?1 for dart leaders and dart-stepped leaders, respectively. M events produced hook-shaped field changes accompanied by active burst of radiations at their begin- nings. Followed these active radiation processes, M events appeared to contact finally into conducting main discharge channels. The mean progression speed of M events was about 7×107 ms?1, greater than that of the dart leaders and dart-step leaders. K events and attempted leaders were essentially the same as dart leaders except that they could not reach the ground and initiate return strokes.

Statistics of the Tropopause Inversion Layer over Beijing

High resolution radiosonde data from Beijing, China in 2002 are used to study the strong tropopause inversion layer （TIL） in the extratropical regions in eastern Asia. The analysis, based on the tropopause- based mean （TB-mean） method, shows that the TIL over Beijing has similar features as over other sites in the same latitude in Northern America. The reduced values of buoyancy frequency in 13-17 km altitude in winter-spring are attributed to the higher occurrence frequency of the secondary tropopause in this season. In the monthly mean temperature profile relative to the secondary tropopause, there also exists a TIL with somewhat enhanced static stability directly over the secondary sharp thermal tropopause, and a 4 km thickness layer with reduced values of buoyancy frequency just below the tropopause, which corresponds to the 13-17 km layer in the first TB-mean thermal profile. In the monthly mean temperature profile relative to the secondary tropopause, a TIL also exists but it is not as strong. For individual cases, a modified definition of the TIL, focusing on the super stability and the small distance from the tropopause, is introduced. The analysis shows that the lower boundary of the newly defined TIL is about 0.42 km above the tropopause, and that it is higher in winter and lower in summer; the thickness of the TIL is larger in winter-spring.

A new method for retrieving equivalent cloud base height and equivalent emissivity by using the ground-based Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI)

In the paper, we propose a new method of identifying the clear sky based on the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI). Using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AFM) dataset in Shouxian in 2008, we simulate the downwelling radiances on the surface in the 8-12m window region using Line-By-Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM), and compare the results with the AERI radiances. The differences larger (smaller) than 3mW (cm2 sr cm1 ) 1 suggest a cloudy (clear) sky. Meanwhile, we develop the new algorithms for retrieving the zenith equivalent cloud base height (CBH e ) and the equivalent emissivity (e), respectively. The retrieval methods are described as follows. (1) An infinitely thin and isothermal blackbody cloud is simulated by the LBLRTM. The cloud base height (H) is adjusted iteratively to satisfy the situation that the contribution of the blackbody to the downwelling radiance is equal to that of realistic cloud. The final H is considered as CBH e . The retrieval results indicate that the differences between the CBH e and observational cloud base height (CBH) are much smaller for thick low cloud, and increase with the increasing CBH. (2) An infinitely thin and isothermal gray body cloud is simulated by the LBLRTM, with the CBH specified as the observed value. The cloud base emissivity (c) is adjusted iteratively until the contribution of the gray body to the downwelling radiance is the same as that of realistic cloud. The corresponding gc is ge . The average ge for the low, middle, and high cloud is 0.967, 0.781, and 0.616 for the 50 cases, respectively. It decreases with the increasing CBH. The retrieval results will be useful for studying the role of cloud in the radiation budget in the window region and cloud parameterizations in the climate model.

Red sprites over thunderstorms in the coast of Shandong Province,China

Red sprites, different from lightning flashes occurring in the troposphere, are large and brief dis-charges which appear in the altitude range from about 40 to 90 km above large thunderstorms and are usually caused by cloud-to-ground lightning discharges (CGs). A total of 17 sprites over two thunder-storms were first observed during the summer of 2007. One of the sprites occurred on July 28 above a thunderstorm in Guan County and the center of the storm was about 272 km from the observation site. The other sprites were recorded at the late night of August 1 and in the early morning of August 2, and the storm center was about 315 km away. All of the observed sprites occurred in cluster, and their appearances were very different, including 'columniform sprites', 'columniform sprites' with angel-like wings, 'carrot sprites', 'dancing sprites', etc. The duration of the sprites varied from a minimum of 40 ms to a maximum of 160 ms with a geometric mean (GM) of 61 ms. The time delay between parental positive cloud-to-ground lightning flashes (+CGs) and the associated sprites varied from 3.4 to 11.8 ms with a GM of 7.1 ms. The ratio of the number of +CGs to the total number of CGs during the time period with sprites was 7 times larger than that when no sprites occurred. Sprites did not appear fre-quently at the time when the convective activity is strong but when the thunderstorm starts to become weak.

The Effects of Line-Wing Cutoff in LBL Integration on Radiation Calculations

There are three basic methods in radiative transfer calculations, i.e., line-by-line （LBL） integration, correlated k-distribution method, and band model. The LBL integration is the most accurate of all, in which, there are two quadrature algorithms named in this paper as integration by lines and by sampling points when calculating atmospheric transmittance in the considered wavenumher region. Because the LBL integration is the most expensive of all, it is necessary and important to save calculation time hut increase calculation speed when it is put into use in the daily operation in atmospheric remote sensing and atmospheric sounding. A simplified LBL method is given in this paper on the basis of integration by lines, which increases computational speed greatly with keeping the same accuracy. Then, we discuss the effects of different cutoff schemes on atmospheric absorption coefficient, transmittance, and cooling rate under both of accurate and simplified LBL methods in detail. There are four cutoff schemes described in this paper, i.e., CUTOFFs 1, 2, 3, and 4. It is shown by this numerical study that the way to cut off spectral line-wing has a great effect on the accuracy and speed of radiative calculations. The relative errors of the calculated absorption coefficients for CUTOFF 2 are the largest under different pressures, while for CUTOFF 1, they are less than 2% at most of sampling points and for CUTOFFs 3 or 4, they are almost less than 5% in the calculated spectral region, however, the calculation time is reduced greatly. We find in this study that the transmittance in the lower atmosphere is not sensitive to different LBL methods and different cutoff schemes. Whereas for the higher atmosphere, the differences of transmittance results between CUTOFF 2 and each of other three cutoff schemes are the biggest of all no matter for the accurate LBL or for the simplified LBL integrations. By comparison, the best and optimized cutoff scheme is given in this paper finally.