Statistical Analysis and Evaluation of Macroeconomic Policies: A Selective Review

In this paper,we highlight some recent developments of a new route to evaluate macroeconomic policy effects,which are investigated under the framework with potential outcomes.First,this paper begins with a brief introduction of the basic model setup in modern econometric analysis of program evaluation.Secondly,primary attention goes to the focus on causal effect estimation of macroeconomic policy with single time series data together with some extensions to multiple time series data.Furthermore,we examine the connection of this new approach to traditional macroeconomic models for policy analysis and evaluation.Finally,we conclude by addressing some possible future research directions in statistics and econometrics.

A perspective on recent methods on testing predictability of asset returns

This paper highlights some recent developments in testing predictability of asset returns with focuses on linear mean regressions, quantile regressions and nonlinear regression models. For these models, when predictors are highly persistent and their innovations are contemporarily correlated with dependent variable, the ordinary least squares estimator has a finite-sample bias, and its limiting distribution relies on some unknown nuisance parameter, which is not consistently estimable. Without correcting these issues, conventional test statistics are subject to a serious size distortion and generate a misleading conclusion in testing pre- dictability of asset returns in real applications. In the past two decades, sequential studies have contributed to this subject and proposed various kinds of solutions, including, but not limit to, the bias-correction procedures, the linear projection approach, the IVX filtering idea, the variable addition approaches, the weighted empirical likelihood method, and the double-weight robust approach. Particularly, to catch up with the fast-growing literature in the recent decade, we offer a selective overview of these methods. Finally, some future research topics, such as the econometric theory for predictive regressions with structural changes, and nonparametric predictive models, and predictive models under a more general data setting, are also discussed.

Evolution of China's Role in the Structure of Global Carbon Emission Transfers:An Empirical Analysis Based on Network Governance

This paper reconsiders the roles of China and some developed countries in the network of carbon emission transfers via international trade in value added from a new perspective of network governance.Network search intensity(NSI)and the extended gravity model are used with cross-country panel data to analyze the mechanism of China's engagement in network governance of carbon emission transfers.The results show that from 2000 to 2009,China was a net exporter of carbon emissions,even though it shifted from the semi-periphery to the core in the network of carbon emissions embodied in imports.Meanwhile,NSI had a significant positive impact on carbon emissions embodied in exports.Given China's important role in the global production network and division of labor,NSI may also affect industrial structure and the quality of the ecological environment to a large extent.This study analyses the network governance mechanism of China's participation in global carbon transfers.The results suggest that the technical complexity of export products and product heterogeneity do not change the positive impact of NSI on carbon emissions.

Panel data models with cross-sectional dependence: a selective review

In this review, we highlight some recent methodological and theoretical develop- ments in estimation and testing of large panel data models with cross-sectional dependence. The paper begins with a discussion of issues of cross-sectional dependence, and introduces the concepts of weak and strong cross-sectional dependence. Then, the main attention is primarily paid to spatial and factor approaches for modeling cross-sectional dependence for both linear and nonlinear （nonparametric and semiparametric） panel data models. Finally, we conclude with some speculations on future research directions.

A new nonparametric stability test with an application to major Chinese macroeconomic time series

In this paper, we propose a new test for testing the stability in macroeconomic time series, based on the LASSO variable selection approach and nonparametric estimation of a time-varying model. The wild bootstrap is employed to obtain its data-dependent critical values. We apply the new method to test the stability of bivariate relations among 92 major Chinese macroeconomic time series. We find that more than 70% bivariate relations are significantly unstable.

Estimation of partial derivative functionals with application to human mortality data analysis

To better describe and understand the time dynamics in functional data analysis,it is often desirable to recover the partial derivatives of the random surface.A novel approach is proposed based on marginal functional principal component analysis to derive the representation for partial derivatives.To obtain the Karhunen-Lo`eve expansion of the partial derivatives,an adaptive estimation is explored.Asymptotic results of the proposed estimates are established.Simulation studies show that the proposed methods perform well in finite samples.Application to the human mortality data reveals informative time dynamics in mortality rates.