Redefining pandemic preparedness:Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases,workshop report

In July 2023,the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic.This report summarizes the rich discussions that occurred during the workshop.The workshop participants discussed multisource data integration and highlighted the benefits of combining traditional surveillance with more novel data sources like mobility data,social media,and wastewater monitoring.Significant advancements were noted in the development of predictive models,with examples from various countries showcasing the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in detecting and monitoring disease trends.The role of open collaboration between various stakeholders in modelling was stressed,advocating for the continuation of such partnerships beyond the pandemic.A major gap identified was the absence of a common international framework for data sharing,which is crucial for global pandemic preparedness.Overall,the workshop underscored the need for robust,adaptable modelling frameworks and the integration of different data sources and collaboration across sectors,as key elements in enhancing future pandemic response and preparedness.

Urban-Rural Disparities for COVID-19:Evidence from 10 Countries and Areas in the Western Pacific

Background.Limited evidence on the effectiveness of various types of social distancing measures,from voluntary physical distancing to a community-wide quarantine,exists for the Western Pacific Region(WPR)which has large urban and rural populations.Methods.We estimated the time-varying reproduction number(Rt)in a Bayesian framework using district-level mobility data provided by Facebook(i)to assess how various social distancing policies have contributed to the reduction in transmissibility of SARS-COV-2 and(ii)to examine within-country variations in behavioural responses,quantified by reductions in mobility,for urban and rural areas.Results.Social distancing measures were largely effective in reducing transmissibility,with Rt estimates decreased to around the threshold of 1.Within-country analysis showed substantial variation in public compliance across regions.Reductions in mobility were significantly lower in rural and remote areas than in urban areas and metropolitan cities(p<0:001)which had the same scale of social distancing orders in place.Conclusions.Our findings provide empirical evidence that public compliance and consequent intervention effectiveness differ between urban and rural areas in the WPR.Further work is required to ascertain the factors affecting these differing behavioural responses,which can assist in policy-making efforts and increase public compliance in rural areas where populations are older and have poorer access to healthcare.