Assessing the impact of conceptual mineral systems uncertainty on prospectivity predictions

The past two decades have seen a rapid adoption of artificial intelligence methods applied to mineral exploration. More recently, the easier acquisition of some types of data has inspired a broad literature that has examined many machine learning and modelling techniques that combine exploration criteria,or ’features’, to generate predictions for mineral prospectivity. Central to the design of prospectivity models is a ’mineral system’, a conceptual model describing the key geological elements that control the timing and location of economic mineralisation. The mineral systems model defines what constitutes a training set, which features represent geological evidence of mineralisation, how features are engineered and what modelling methods are used. Mineral systems are knowledge-driven conceptual models, thus all parameter choices are subject to human biases and opinion so alternative models are possible.However, the effect of alternative mineral systems models on prospectivity is rarely compared despite the potential to heavily influence final predictions. In this study, we focus on the effect of conceptual uncertainty on Fe ore prospectivity models in the Hamersley region, Western Australia. Four important considerations are tested.(1) Five different supergene and hypogene conceptual mineral systems models guide the inputs for five forest-based classification prospectivity models model.(2) To represent conceptual uncertainty, the predictions are then combined for prospectivity model comparison.(3)Representation of three-dimensional objects as two-dimensional features are tested to address commonly ignored thickness of geological units.(4) The training dataset is composed of known economic mineralisation sites(deposits) as ’positive’ examples, and exploration drilling data providing ’negative’sampling locations. Each of the spatial predictions are assessed using independent performance metrics common to AI-based classification methods and subjected to geological plausibility testing. We find that different conceptual mineral systems produce significantly different spatial predictions, thus conceptual uncertainty must be recognised. A benefit to recognising and modelling different conceptual models is that robust and geologically plausible predictions can be made that may guide mineral discovery.

Development and application of feature engineered geological layers for ranking magmatic,volcanogenic,and orogenic system components in Archean greenstone belts

Geologically representative feature engineering is a crucial component in geoscientific applications of machine learning.Many commonly applied feature engineering techniques used to produce input variables for machine learning apply geological knowledge to generic data science techniques,which can lead to ambiguity,geological oversimplification,and/or compounding subjective bias.Workflows that utilize minimally processed input variables attempt to overcome these issues,but often lead to convoluted and uninterpretable results.To address these challenges,new and enhanced feature engineering methods were developed by combining geological knowledge,understanding of data limitations,and a variety of data science techniques.These include non-Euclidean fluid pre-deformation path distance,rheological and chemical contrast,geologically constrained interpolation of characteristic host rock geochemistry,interpolation of mobile element gain/loss,assemblages,magnetic intensity,structural complexity,host rock physical properties.These methods were applied to compiled open-source and new field observations from Archean greenstone terranes in the Abitibi and western Wabigoon sub-provinces of the Superior Province near Timmins and Dryden,Ontario,respectively.Resulting feature maps represent conceptually significant components in magmatic,volcanogenic,and orogenic mineral systems.A comparison of ranked feature importance from random forests to conceptual mineral system models show that the feature maps adequately represent system components,with a few exceptions attributed to biased training data or limited constraint data.The study also highlights the shared importance of several highly ranked features for the three mineral systems,indicating that spatially related mineral systems exploit the same features when available.Comparing feature importance when classifying orogenic Au mineralization in Timmins and Dryden provides insights into the possible cause of contrasting endowment being related to fluid source.The study demonstrates that integrative studies leveraging multidisciplinary data and methodology have the potential to advance geological understanding,maximize data utility,and generate robust exploration targets.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for the inference between metal grade with reduced variance:Case studies in porphyry Cu deposits

Ore sorting is a preconcentration technology and can dramatically reduce energy and water usage to improve the sustainability and profitability of a mining operation.In porphyry Cu deposits,Cu is the primary target,with ores usually containing secondary‘pay’metals such as Au,Mo and gangue elements such as Fe and As.Due to sensing technology limitations,secondary and deleterious materials vary in correlation type and strength with Cu but cannot be detected simultaneously via magnetic resonance(MR)ore sorting.Inferring the relationships between Cu and other elemental abundances is particularly critical for mineral processing.The variations in metal grade relationships occur due to the transition into different geological domains.This raises two questions-how to define these geological domains and how the metal grade relationship is influenced by these geological domains.In this paper,linear relationship is assumed between Cu grade and other metal grades.We applies a Bayesian hierarchical(partial-pooling)model to quantify the linear relationships between Cu,Au,and Fe grades from geochemical bore core data.The hierarchical model was compared with two other models-‘complete-pooling’model and‘nopooling’model.Mining blocks were split based on spatial domain to construct hierarchical model.Geochemical bore core data records metal grades measured from laboratory assay with spatial coordinates of sample location.Two case studies from different porphyry Cu deposits were used to evaluate the performance of the hierarchical model.Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)was used to sample the posterior parameters.Our results show that the Bayesian hierarchical model dramatically reduced the posterior predictive variance for metal grades regression compared to the no-pooling model.In addition,the posterior inference in the hierarchical model is insensitive to the choice of prior.The data is wellrepresented in the posterior which indicates a robust model.The results show that the spatial domain can be successfully utilised for metal grade regression.Uncertainty in estimating the relationship between pay metals and both secondary and gangue elements is quantified and shown to be reduced with partial-pooling.Thus,the proposed Bayesian hierarchical model can offer a reliable and stable way to monitor the relationship between metal grades for ore sorting and other mineral processing options.

Linking the Gawler Craton and Mount Isa Province through hydrothermal systems in the Peake and Denison Domain,northeastern Gawler Craton

Tectonic reconstructions of Proterozoic Australia commonly place the Peake and Denison Domain of the northeastern Gawler Craton at the interface between the North and South Australian cratons prior to the reconfiguration of Australia’s main tectonic components in the Mesoproterozoic.However,this reconstruction is largely based on palaeomagnetic data as the geological correlations between these regions are currently limited,particularly during the Mesoproterozoic.The early Mesoproterozoic period is significant as it corresponds to major IOCG mineralization in the eastern Gawler Craton between 1600 Ma and 1575 Ma,and IOCG mineralization in the Mount Isa Province largely between 1550 Ma and 1490 Ma.Therefore,determining the relationship of the Peake and Denison Domain to the Gawler Craton and Mount Isa Province during this period is essential to evaluating mineral prospectivity in the northeastern Gawler Craton.New U–Pb LA-ICP-MS geochronology on zircon and titanite improves our understanding of the tectonothermal and hydrothermal history the Peake and Denison Domain during the latePalaeoproterozoic,early-Mesoproterozoic and the Cambrian–Ordovician periods.Titanite formed within largely calc-silicate alteration assemblages indicates the Peake and Denison Domain has a protracted history of hydrothermal activity,recording events at c.1565 Ma,1530–1515 Ma,c.1500 Ma,c.1465 Ma and c.490 Ma.The highly calcic nature of the c.1565–1500 Ma alteration in the Peake and Denison Domain shares strong similarities in age and character to the regional calcic-sodic alteration recorded in the Mount Isa Province.We suggest the two regions were influenced by similar hydrothermal systems during the early Mesoproterozoic,supporting reconstruction models that place the Peake and Denison Domain near the Mount Isa Province during the early-Mesoproterozoic.This highlights the prospectivity of the Peake and Denison Domain for Isan-style IOCG mineralization,but requires consideration of the post-1500 Ma rotation of prospective structures.