Modulation of Low-Latitude West Wind on Abnormal Track and Intensity of Tropical Cyclone Nargis (2008) in the Bay of Bengal

Tropical cyclone （TC） Nargis （2008） made landfall in Myanmar on 02 May 2008, bringing a storm surge, major flooding, and resulting in a significant death toll. TC Nargis （2008） displayed abnormal features, including rare eastward motion in its late stage, rapid intensification before landing. Using reanalysis data and a numerical model, we investigated how a low-latitude westerly wind modulated TC Nargis’ （2008） track and provided favorable atmospheric conditions for its rapid intensification. More importantly, we found a possible counterbalance effect of flows from the two hemispheres on the TC track in the Bay of Bengal. Our analysis indicates that a strong westerly wind burst across the Bay of Bengal, resulting in TC Nargis’ （2008） eastward movement after its recurvature. This sudden enhancement of westerly wind was mainly due to the rapidly intensified mid-level cross-equatorial flow. Our results show that a high-pressure system in the Southern Hemisphere induced this strong, mid-level, cross-equatorial flow. During the rapid intensification period of TC Nargis （2008）, this strong and broad westerly wind also transported a large amount of water vapor to TC Nargis （2008）. Sufficient water vapor gave rise to continuously high and increased mid-level relative humidity, which was favorable to TC Nargis’ （2008） intensification. Condensation of water vapor increased the energy supply, which eventuated the intensification of TC Nargis （2008） to a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific by the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation

The quasi-biweekly oscillation （QBWO） is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode over the westem North Pacific （WNP） during boreal summer. In this study, the modulation of WNP tropical cyclogenesis （TCG） by the QBWO and its association with large-scale patterns are investigated. A strong modulation of WNP TCG events by the QBWO is found. More TCG events occur during the QBWO＇s convectively active phase. Based on the genesis potential index （GPI）, we further evaluate the role of environmental factors in affecting WNP TCG. The positive GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO correspond well with TCG counts and locations. A large positive GPI anomaly is spatially correlated with WNP TCG events during a life cycle of the QBWO. The low-level relative vorticity and mid-level relative humidity appear to be two dominant contributors to the QBWO-composited GPI anomalies during the QBWO＇s active phase, followed by the nonlinear and potential intensity terms. These positive contributions to the GPI anomalies are partly offset by the negative contribution from the vertical wind shear. During the QBWO＇s inactive phase, the mid-level relative humidity appears to be the largest contributor, while weak contributions are also made by the nonlinear and low-level relative vorticity terms. Meanwhile, these positive contributions are partly cancelled out by the negative contribution from the potential intensity. The contributions of these environmental factors to the GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO are similar in all five flow patterns--the monsoon shear line, monsoon confluence region, monsoon gyre, easterly wave, and Rossby wave energy dispersion associated with a preexisting TC. Further analyses show that the QBWO strongly modulates the synoptic-scale wave trains （SSWs） over the WNP, with larger amplitude SSWs during the QBWO＇s active phase. This implies a possible enhanced （weakened） relationship between TCG and SSWs during the active （inactive） phase. This study improves our understanding of the modulation of WNP TCG by the QBWO and thus helps with efforts to improve the intraseasonal prediction of WNP TCG.

Track forecast:Operational capability and new techniques-Summary from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10)

In this paper,we summarize findings from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10)subgroup on operational track forecasting techniques and capability.The rate of improvement in the accuracy of official forecast tracks(OFTs)appears to be slowing down,at least for shorter lead times,where we may be approaching theoretical limits.Operational agencies continue to use consensus methods to produce the OFT with most continuing to rely on an unweighted consensus of four to nine NWP models.There continues to be limited use of weighted consensus techniques,which is likely a result of the skills and additional maintenance needed to support this approach.Improvements in the accuracy of ensemble mean tracks is leading to increased use of ensemble means in consensus tracks.Operational agencies are increasingly producing situation-dependent depictions of track uncertainty,rather than relying on a static depiction of track forecast certainty based on accuracy statistics from the preceding 5 years.This trend has been facilitated by the greater availability of ensemble NWP guidance,particularly vortex parameter files,and improved spread in ensembles.Despite improving spread-skill relationships,most ensemble NWP systems remain under spread.Hence many operational centers are looking to leverage“super-ensembles”(ensembles of ensembles)to ensure the full spread of location probability is captured.This is an important area of service development for multi-hazard impact-based warnings as it supports better decision making by emergency managers and the community in the face of uncertainty.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration.Publishing services by Elsevier B.V.on behalf of KeAi Communication Co.Ltd.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Tropical cyclogenesis:Controlling factors and physical mechanisms

In this review,advances in the understanding of the controlling factors and physical mechanisms of tropical cyclogenesis(TCG)are summarized from recent(2018–2022)research on TCG,as presented in the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10).Observational,theoretical,and numerical modeling studies published in recent years have advanced our knowledge on the influence of large-scale environmental factors on TCG.Furthermore,studies have shown clearly that appropriate convective coupling with tropical equatorial waves enhances the development chances of TCG.More recently,illuminating research has been carried out on analyzing the mechanisms by which oscillations and teleconnections(El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation(ENSO)in particular)modulate TCG globally,in association with changes in the sea surface temperature(SST).In addition to this,recent research has diligently addressed different aspects of TCG.Multiple studies have reported the applicability of unified theories and physical mechanisms of TCG in different ocean basins.Recently,research has been carried out on TCG under different flow pattern regimes,dry air intrusion,importance of marsupial pouch,genesis of Medicanes,wind shear,convection and vertical structure.Furthermore,studies have discussed the possibility of near equatorial TCG provided that there is enough supply of background vertical vorticity and relatively low vertical wind shear.Progress has been made to understand the role of climate change on global and regional TCG.However,there are still significant gaps which need to be addressed in order to better understand TCG prediction.

A review of recent research progress on the effect of external influences on tropical cyclone intensity change

Over the past four years,significant research has advanced our understanding of how external factors influence tropical cyclone(TC)intensity changes.Research on air-sea interactions shows that increasing the moisture disequilibrium is a very effective way to increase surface heatfluxes and that ocean salinity-stratification plays a non-negligible part in TC intensity change.Vertical wind shear from the environment induces vortex misalignment,which controls the onset of significant TC intensification.Blocking due to upper-level outflow from TCs can reduce the magnitude of vertical wind shear,making for TC intensification.Enhanced TC-trough interactions are vital for rapid intensification in some TC cases because of strengthened warm air advection,but upper-level troughs are found to limit TC intensification in other cases due to dry midlevel air intrusions and increased shear.Aerosol effects on TCs can be divided into direct effects involving aerosol-radiation interactions and indirect effects involving aerosol-cloud interactions.The radiation absorption by the aerosols can change the temperature profile and affect outer rainbands through changes in stability and microphysics.Sea spray and sea salt aerosols are more important in the inner region,where the aerosols increase precipitation and latent heating,promoting more intensification.For landfalling TCs,the intensity decay is initially more sensitive to surface roughness than soil moisture,and the subsequent decay is mainly due to the rapid reduction in surface moisturefluxes.These new insights further sharpen our understanding of the mechanisms by which external factors influence TC intensity changes.

The correctness to the spuriously simulated semi-annual cycle of the sea surface temperature in the equatorial eastern Pacific

One of the challenges faced by the climate model of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) is the spuriously simulated semi-annual cycle of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This model bias has limited the performance of the climate simulation and prediction. Based on the surface wave-circulation coupled theory, an atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled model was developed, which incorporates the MASNUM (key laboratory of Marine Sciences and Numerical Modeling) wave number spectral model into CCSM3. The new coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model successfully removes the spurious semi-annual cycle simulated by the original CCSM3 and reasonably produces an SST annual cycle with warm and cold phases in April and August, respectively. The correlation between the simulated and observed SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific is improved from 0.66 to 0.93. The ocean surface layer heat budget analysis indicates that the wave-induced vertical mixing is responsible for improving the simulation of the SST seasonal cycle in the equatorial eastern Pacific.

An ecosystem-based approach to marine risk assessment

Risk assessments quantify the probability of undesirable events along with their consequences.They are used to prioritize management interventions and assess tradeoffs,serving as an essential component of ecosystem-based management(EBM).A central objective of most risk assessments for conservation and management is to characterize uncertainty and impacts associated with one or more pressures of interest.Risk assessments have been used in marine resource management to help evaluate the risk of environmental,ecological,and anthropogenic pressures on species or habitats including for data-poor fisheries management(e.g.,toxicity,probability of extinction,habitat alteration impacts).Traditionally,marine risk assessments focused on singular pressure-response relationships,but recent advancements have included use of risk assessments in an EBM context,providing a method for evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple pressures on multiple ecosystem components.Here,we describe a conceptual framework for ecosystem risk assessment(ERA),highlighting its role in operationalizing EBM,with specific attention to ocean management considerations.This framework builds on the ecotoxicological and conservation literature on risk assessment and includes recent advances that focus on risks posed by fishing to marine ecosystems.We review how examples of ERAs from the United States fit into this framework,explore the variety of analytical approaches that have been used to conduct ERAs,and assess the challenges and data gaps that remain.This review discusses future prospects for ERAs as EBM decision-support tools,their expanded role in integrated ecosystem assessments,and the development of next-generation risk assessments for coupled natural-human systems.