Study of Wildfire Environmental Conditions in Portugal with NOAA/NESDIS Satellite-Based Vegetation Health Index

Forest fires occur in Portugal every year during late spring, summer and fall. However, the beginning and end of the most severe season of forest fires are very variable, as is their intensity, the area and the number of occurrences. It is obvious, that vegetation stress and droughts are strongly linked to the occurrence of forest fires and burned area, showing a strong response to the drought. The vegetation health index (VHI), retrieved from the NOAA/NESDIS, shows good results in the detection of droughts, monitoring vegetation conditions in different countries. VHI is computed combining two terms: vegetation condition index (VCI), and temperature condition index (TCI) reflecting moisture and thermal vegetation conditions. The main objective of this study was to investigate the potential of VHI-method to monitor environmental conditions, favourable to forest fires in Portugal. Results of the study show that 88% of forest fires with burned area higher than 1,000 ha in a week, are well related with vegetation stress or drought conditions, detected with VHI-method. The results also show that the monitoring of the evolution of the VHI indexes is important for prevention burnt areas, especially in the spring, since it can indicate conditions for vegetation growth, which increases the fuel availability and the fire risk in the summer.

利用NOAA/AMSU资料和GRAPES同化系统对陆面比辐射率计算的改进研究

地表比辐射率计算的不确定性,直接影响到卫星资料在数值预报中同化应用的效果。本文采用美国NOAA/NESDIS的Weng等[1,2]提出的复杂陆面比辐射率模式,同时用NOAA卫星AMSU-ACh1或Ch2反演的地表比辐射率来调整该模式所需的地表参数,从而在缺少详细地表参数的情况下,改进AMSU-A Ch3和Ch15的地表比辐射率计算精度。在积雪地表情况下,用NOAA卫星AMSU-A资料直接反演各通道的比辐射率,在GRAPES同化系统中的应用表明,结果有明显的改进。

NOAA卫星探测数据对B-模式分析预报系统性误差的影响

本文报告极轨气象卫星探测数据对B-模式的海平面气压场预报和500hPa高度预报的系统性误差的影响.主要结果是:(1)B-模式预报海平面气压的强度偏弱,即高压系统太低,低压太高;(2)500hPa高度预报的系统性误差情况不如海平面气压场误差情况明显.但也能发现槽区的高度预报不够低,而脊区的高度预报不够高;(3)应用卫星数据对B-模式分析预报系统的预报有正作用,对海洋上的地面低压和500hPa槽区附近的系统性误差有明显减小,但对其它地区天气系统预报的正负影响参差不齐,其作用难下结论。

应用 NOAA AVHRR 作大面积作物监测——估测玉米吐丝期

吐丝是玉米生长发育中的重要环节,该阶段的天气条件会危及作物的最终产量。掌握吐丝出现的时间及同期的气象条件对监测作物产量是重要的。在美国,根据田间观测可进行作物的发育期估测,然而,对于其它地区,这些资料则不易得到。因此,一种应用卫星监测吐丝期的方法被提出,并与基于地面的估测进行了比较。在地面估测吐丝期的一周内,由 NOAA AVHRR 可见光和近红外的周合成资料计算得出几种植被指数,并用它们来估测大面积吐丝出现期。

Monitoring Landslides Conditions in Madeira Island Using NOAA Operational Satellites

Soil water excess,as well as deficit,leads to vegetation stress,i.e.,photosynthesis decline,stomata closure,growth reduction,decrease in respiration and biomass production.Therefore,vegetation response can be used as indicator of changing in soil conditions,which corresponds to such phenomena as drought or soil waterlogging and associated natural disasters.During last 20 years,National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration,National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Services(NOAA/NESDIS)satellite-based vegetation health indices(VHI)were successfully used for monitoring environmentally-based vegetation stress,including droughts,fire risk,soil saturation and other natural hazards around the world.In this study,the VHI were applied to verify the possibility their utilization for detection landslide risk areas in Madeira Island.Vegetation condition index(VCI)and registered precipitation were analyzed together with information on landslide occurrence in recent years.

利用多源遥感卫星数据研究南海内波的时空分布特征

利用1995～2005年300多幅ERS-1／2，Radarsat-1，ENVISAT、SPOT、Landsat、IRS和NOAA AVHRR图像统计了南海北部海洋内波的时间分布特征，并绘制了内波空间分布图，利用KdV方程和Levitus历史跃层资料反演了内波的振幅和波速等参数。研究结果表明，南海北部海洋内波出现的区域主要有3块：吕宋海峡，东沙岛和海南东北部。内波传播方向以西向为主。在吕宋海峡，相速度达3m／s，内波振幅超过100m。在东沙岛附近，相速度在1-5～2m／s左右，振幅在20～80m左右；东沙岛西面和北面，相速度在1～1．5m／s左右，振幅在5～20m左右。海南东北部，相速度在0．4～0．8m／s左右，振幅在2～4m左右。内波的时间分布特征为：内波以4～9月为高峰期，1～3月和11～12月为低峰期；在每个月里以16～19日为高峰期。

苏州—无锡—常州城市带热岛效应个例研究

应用WRF(weather research and forecasting)及其耦合的多层城市冠层模式BEP(building energy parameterization),对2013年8月13日长江三角洲地区一次高温天气过程进行了模拟。此次过程盛行东南风,风向与苏州—无锡—常州城市带走向一致。模拟结果表明:苏州—无锡—常州城市带热岛效应明显,热岛强度向下游城市逐渐增加;在东南风作用下,三座城市的热岛连成一片,形成了一个更强大的热岛环流。夜晚,边界层逐渐趋于稳定,热岛环流减弱,有利于热岛温度向下游地区输送。热岛效应导致城市边界层高度明显上升。白天太湖产生强盛的湖风对其周边城市影响显著,来自太湖的冷气团导致无锡和常州边界层内热岛强度明显下降,抑制城市热岛向上发展,削弱了无锡与常州两城市热岛间的联系。白天太湖使得无锡和常州边界层高度明显下降。

应用小波收缩方法剔除MODIS热红外波段数据条带噪声

采用多元并扫方式 (1km分辨率 1 0元并扫 ,5 0 0m分辨率 2 0元并扫 ,2 5 0m分辨率 4 0元并扫 )的MODIS传感器由于各探测单元在轨响应差异而引起的条带噪声对MODIS定量产品的反演计算精度造成一定影响。这种影响在MODIS的热红外波段尤其明显。为了尽可能减少这种影响 ,提高MODIS定量产品反演精度 ,提出应用小波收缩方法剔除MODIS数据条带噪声。研究首先使用连续小波变换方法分析MODIS条带数据 ,确定MODIS数据条带噪声在小波系数域中的尺度。其次 ,在分析条带噪声模式的基础上 ,使用小波收缩方法对MODIS 1B数据进行噪声剔除计算。最后比较了分别使用噪声剔除前后的两组MODIS 1B数据反演得到的部分云和大气定量遥感产品 ,结果表明 ,使用剔除噪声后的MODIS

沙漠地区微波地表发射率和土壤质地关系分析

利用微波地表发射率模型,模拟计算了沙漠地区石英、砂岩、花岗岩和石灰石不同粒子尺度、砂土含量和土壤含水量时的地表发射率频谱,并用先进微波扫描辐射计-地球观测系统AMSR—E资料对塔克拉玛干沙漠地区进行了地表发射率卫星反演和模型模拟计算的对比研究,分析了该地区不同地表类型和矿物成分的微波地表发射率特征。结果表明,微波地表发射率和地表类型密切相关,并且随着土壤含水量、土壤质地、矿物成分和土壤粒子尺度的不同存在显著变化,成为现有微波地表发射率模型用于沙漠地区模拟计算结果的误差主要来源。根据沙漠地区准确的土壤类型、土壤组分比例、粒径尺度和矿物颗粒等信息对近地表土壤进行了辐射传输过程的分层分析,为改进现有微波地表发射率计算模型提供理论依据。

沙漠地区土壤质地对不同频点微波地表发射率反演和模拟的影响

首先运用先进微波扫描辐射仪(AMSR-E)资料反演了北非沙漠地区晴空条件下的地表微波发射率。然后根据不同的土壤类型,进一步分析了沙漠地表微波发射率频谱特性,并将增加土壤质地信息前、后的翁(Weng)氏微波地表发射率模型(2001)的模拟结果和反演结果进行了比较。结果表明,沙漠地表发射率与土壤质地密切相关,随土壤颗粒大小的不同变化明显。在沙漠土壤类型中,以大颗粒为主的土壤类型,其水平(垂直)极化的发射率通常随频率提高而增大(减小);而对于以较小粒子为主的沙漠土壤类型,地表发射率几乎为常数,或水平(垂直)极化的发射率随频率提高略有减小(增大)。并且,发射率的季节性特征明显,特别是以小颗粒组成的土壤,其水平极化的发射率比垂直极化的发射率表现出更强的季节性变化。以上这些发射率特征与翁氏模型模拟结果一致。此外,在翁氏模型的输入参数中增加土壤质地信息(土壤组分含量、粒径尺度)改善了翁氏模型在沙漠地区的模拟结果,特别是对于包含大量小粒子的沙漠土壤类型,如黏土和黏质壤土,模拟误差从6%9%降低至4%以下。由于翁氏模型是美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)全球同化和预报系统的重要组成部分,对翁氏模型的改进将提高沙漠地区卫星资料的利用率并有望改进数值天气预报的准确度。

季风影响下的青藏高原上空甲烷、水汽及云的变化

为进一步了解季风对于水汽及其它大气成分的输送作用,利用美国Aqua卫星上AIRS反演的甲烷(CH4)和MODIS反演的水汽、云高和云量等卫星观测资料,分析了2003至2010年中国青藏高原上空CH4、水汽和云在季风期间的变化及其与季风指数的关系。研究发现:夏季(6月至9月)高原上空水汽、云量和云顶高度的变化与季风指数有很好的相关;在强对流影响下,输送到高原上空的水汽增多,引起云量增多,云顶高度增加,而向上输送的甲烷引起高原上空CH4浓度增加,并在青藏高压强大的反气旋的阻塞下CH4不断积累,在季风期的后半程维持一个高值,但最大值出现在8月底至9月初,比季风指数的峰值晚近一个月。随着季风减退和青藏高压的消失,甲烷的高值快速消失。由此可见,夏季青藏高原的强对流输送无疑是甲烷高值形成的主要动力机制之一。CH4作为一种长寿命的温室气体,有潜力作为一种示踪气体来帮助研究季风和季风期间高原上空强大的反气旋动力机制的变化。

Ecosystem Health Assessment of Honghu Lake Wetland of China Using Artificial Neural Network Approach

Honghu Lake,located in the southeast of Hubei Province,China,has suffered a severe disturbance during the past few decades.To restore the ecosystem,the Honghu Lake Wetland Protection and Restoration Demonstration Project(HLWPRDP) has been implemented since 2004.A back propagation(BP) artificial neural network(ANN) approach was applied to evaluatinig the ecosystem health of the Honghu Lake wetland.And the effectiveness of the HLWPRDP was also assessed by comparing the ecosystem health before and after the project.Particularly,12 ecosystem health indices were used as evaluation parameters to establish a set of three-layer BP ANNs.The output is one layer of ecosystem health index.After training and testing the BP ANNs,an optimal model of BP ANNs was selected to assess the ecosystem health of the Honghu Lake wetland.The result indicates that four stages can be identified based on the change of the ecosystem health from 1990 to 2008 and the ecosystem health index ranges from morbidity before the implementation of HLWPRDP(in 2002) to middle health after the implementation of the HLWPRDP(in 2005).It demonstrates that the HLWPRDP is effective and the BP ANN could be used as a tool for the assessment of ecosystem health.

The Impact of the Storm-Induced SST Cooling on Hurricane Intensity

The effects of storm-induced sea surface temperature （SST） cooling on hurricane intensity are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie （1998）. Two sensitivity simulations are performed in which the storm-induced cooling is either ignored or shifted close to the modeled storm track. Results show marked sensitivity of the model-simulated storm intensity to the magnitude and relative position with respect to the hurricane track. It is shown that incorporation of the storm-induced cooling, with an average value of 1.3℃, causes a 25-hPa weakening of the hurricane, which is about 20 hPa per 1℃ change in SST. Shifting the SST cooling close to the storm track generates the weakest storm, accounting for about 47% reduction in the storm intensity. It is found that the storm intensity changes are well correlated with the air-sea temperature difference. The results have important implications for the use of coupled hurricane-ocean models for numerical prediction of tropical cyclones.

A Modeling Study of Diurnal Rainfall Variations during the 21-Day Period of TOGA COARE

The surface rainfall processes and diurnal variations associated with tropical oceanic convection are examined by analyzing a surface rainfall equation and thermal budget based on hourly zonal-mean data from a series of two-dimensional cloud-resolving simulations. The model is integrated for 21 days with imposed large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind, and horizontal advection obtained from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment （TOGA COARE） in the control experiment. Diurnal analysis shows that the infrared radiative cooling after sunset, as well as the advective cooling associated with imposed large-scale ascending motion, destabilize the atmosphere and release convective available potential energy to energize nocturnal convective development. Substantial local atmospheric drying is associated with the nocturnal rainfall peak in early morning, which is a result of the large condensation and deposition rates in the vapor budget. Sensitivity experiments show that diurnal variations of radiation and large-scale forcing can produce a nocturnal rainfall peak through infrared and advective cooling, respectively.

在NCEPGDAS中同化MSG和GOES资料

首次将MSG-2(Meteosat Second Generation-2)卫星上的旋转增强可见光及红外成像仪(Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager,SEVIRI)的观测资料同化到美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)全球资料同化系统(global data assimilation system,GDAS)中。对当前的地球静止业务环境卫星(Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite,GOES)成像仪资料的同化问题也进行了进一步探讨。利用CRTM(The Community Radiative Transfer Model)模式,对SEVIRI辐射率观测资料进行了模拟。为了对红外辐射率资料进行模拟,CRTM模式中的几个关键部分得到改进,例如:动态更新地面发射率资料以及采用了快速精确的气体吸收模块。为了改进对SEVIRI和GOES成像仪辐射率资料的模拟效果,采用了GSICS(The Global Space-Based Inter-Calibration System)标定订正。初步研究结果表明,包含对SEVIRI辐射率资料的水汽通道(6.25和7.35μm)和二氧化碳通道(13.40μm)的同化对GFS(Global Forecast System)6d预报具有显著的正影响;而对其他5个SEVIRI红外窗口通道资料的同化则减小了这种正影响。通过应用GSICS标定算法,订正了SEVIRI和GOES-12成像仪观测资料的偏差,提高了对GFS预报的影响。此外,还需作进一步研究来提高对SEVIRI红外窗口通道辐射率资料同化的有效性。

Applications of AMSR-E Measurements for Tropical Cyclone Predictions PartⅠ: Retrieval of Sea Surface Temperature and Wind Speed

Existing satellite microwave algorithms for retrieving Sea Surface Temperature （SST） and Wind （SSW） are applicable primarily for non-raining cloudy conditions. With the launch of the Earth Observing System （EOS） Aqua satellite in 2002, the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer （AMSRoE） onboard provides some unique measurements at lower frequencies which are sensitive to ocean surface parameters under adverse weather conditions. In this study, a new algorithm is developed to derive SST and SSW for hurricane predictions such as hurricane vortex analysis from the AMSRoE measurements at 6.925 and 10.65 GHz. In the algorithm, the effects of precipitation emission and scattering on the measurements are properly taken into account. The algorithm performances are evaluated with buoy measurements and aircraft dropsonde data. It is found that the root mean square （RMS） errors for SST and SSW are about 1.8 K and 1.9 m s^- 1, respectively, when the results are compared with the buoy data over open oceans under precipitating clouds （e.g., its liquid water path is larger than 0.5 mm）, while they are 1.1 K for SST and 2.0 m s^-1 for SSW, respectively, when the retrievals are validated against the dropsonde measurements over warm oceans. These results indicate that our newly developed algorithm can provide some critical surface information for tropical cycle predictions. Currently, this newly developed algorithm has been implemented into the hybrid variational scheme for the hurricane vortex analysis to provide predictions of SST and SSW fields.

Physical Mechanism of Formation of the Bimodal Structure in the Meiyu Front System

The bimodal structure of the Meiyu front system is readdressed after Zhou et al.（2005）. The physical mechanism of the formation of the bimodal distribution is discussed. The bimodal structure of the Melyu front system considerably results from atmospheric moisture gradients, though atmospheric temperature gradients are also not negligible. According to the definition of equivalent potential temperature, and by scale analysis, we find that atmospheric equivalent potential temperature gradients, which could be regarded as an indicator of the Meiyu front system, could be mainly attributed to the variations of atmospheric potential temperature gradients with a scaling factor of 1 and moisture gradients multiplied by a scaling factor of an order of about 2.5 × 10^3, which means that small variations of atmospheric moisture gradients could lead to large variations of equivalent potential temperature gradients, and thus large variations of the Meiyu front system. Quantitative diagnostics with a mesoscale simulation data in the vicinity of the Meiyu front system show that moisture gradients contribute to equivalent potential temperature gradients more than potential temperature gradients.

A STUDY OF PARTITIONING Q VECTOR ON BACKGROUND CONDITIONS OF A TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER SHANGHAI,CHINA ON 25 AUGUST 2008

A rainfall that occurred during 0200–1400 Beijing Standard Time(BST)25 August 2008 shows the rapid development of a convective system,a short life span,and a record rate of 117.5 mm h-1for Xujiahui station since 1872.To study this torrential rainfall process,the partitioning method of Q vector is developed,in which a moist Q vector is first separated into a dry ageostrophic Q vector(DQ)and a diabatic-heating component.The dry ageostrophic Q vector is further partitioned along isothermal lines in the natural coordinate to identify different scale forcing in adiabatic atmosphere,and the large-scale and convective condensational heating in non-uniform saturated atmosphere,convective condensational heating, and Laplace of diabatic heating that includes radiative heating and other heating and cooling processes,are calculated to study the forcing from diabatic heating.The effects of the environmental conditions on the development of the rainfall processes are diagnosed by performing the partitioning of Q vector based on 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR Final Analysis(FNL)data with the horizontal resolution of 1°×1°.The results include the following:(1)a low-pressure inverted trough associated with the landfall of Typhoon Nuri (2008),a strong southwesterly jet along the western side of the subtropical high,and an eastward-propagating westerly low-pressure trough provide favorable synoptic conditions for the development of torrential rainfall;(2)the analysis of DQ vector showed that the upward motions forced by the convergence of DQ vector in the lower troposphere(1000–600 hPa)favor the development of torrential rainfall.When DQ vector converges in the upper troposphere(500–100 hPa),upward motions in the whole air column intensify significantly to accelerate the development of torrential rainfall;(3)the partitioning analysis of DQ vector reveals that large-scale forcing persistently favors the development of torrential rainfall whereas the mesoscale forcing speeds up the torrential rainfall;(4)the calculations of large-scale condensational heating in non-uniform saturated atmosphere,convective condensational heating, and Laplace of diabatic heating showed that the forcing related to diabatic heating has the positive feedback on the convective development,and such positive feedback decays and dissipates when the convective system propagates eastward and weakens.

Diurnal Variability of Precipitation Depth Over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surrounding Regions

The diurnal variability of precipitation depth over the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding regions is investigated using nine years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） precipitation radar （PR） measurements. The Tibetan Plateau, the plains area, and the East China Sea are selected as the focus regions in this study. The average precipitation depths （PD） are about 4.6 km, 5.8 km, and 5.6 km, while convective （stratiform） PDs are about 6.6 （4.5） km, 7.5 （5.7） km, and 6.0 （5.6） km over the plateau, the plains, and the ocean region, respectively. Results demonstrate a prominent PD diurnal cycle, and its diurnal phase is generally a few hours behind the surface precipitation. The spatial variation of the PD diurnal magnitude is weaker near the coastal areas than that of surface precipitation. The height of the PD diurnal peak is around 6 7 km for convective systems and 5-6 km for stratifrom systems. The dominant afternoon diurnal peak for convective PD and the flat diurnal peak for stratiform PD over the Tibetan Plateau indicate that solar diurnal forcing is the key mechanism of the PD diurnal cycle over land. In addition, the diurnal variation is obvious for shallow and deep convective systems, but not for shallow and deep stratiform systems.

Responses of Vertical Structures in Convective and Stratiform Regions to Large-Scale Forcing during the Landfall of Severe Tropical Storm Bilis (2006)

The responses of vertical structures, in convective and stratiform regions, to the large-scale forcing during the landfall of tropical storm Bilis （2006） are investigated using the data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. An imposed large-scale forcing with upward motion in the mid and upper troposphere and downward motion in the lower troposphere on 15 July suppresses convective clouds, which leads to -100% coverage of raining stratiform clouds over the entire model domain. The imposed forcing extends upward motion to the lower troposphere during 16-17 July, which leads to an enhancement of convective clouds and suppression of raining stratiform clouds. The switch of large-scale lower-tropospheric vertical velocity from weak downward motion on 15 July to moderate upward motion during 16-17 July produces a much broader distribution of the vertical velocity, water vapor and hydrometeor fluxes, perturbation specific humidity, and total hydrometeor mixing ratio during 16-17 July than those on 15 July in the analysis of contoured frequency-altitude diagrams. Further analysis of the water vapor budget reveals that local atmospheric moistening is mainly caused by the enhancement of evaporation of rain associated with downward motion on 15 July, whereas local atmospheric drying is mainly determined by the advective drying associated with downward motion over raining stratiform regions and by the net condensation associated with upward motion over convective regions during 16-17 July.