A simple air-sea coupled model, the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled to a mixed-layer slab ocean model, is employed to investigate the impact ...A simple air-sea coupled model, the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled to a mixed-layer slab ocean model, is employed to investigate the impact of air-sea coupling on the signals of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A regional coupling strategy is applied, in which coupling is switched off in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean but switched on in the open oceans elsewhere. The coupled model is forced with warm-phase AMO SST anomalies, and the modeled responses are compared with those from parallel uncoupled AGCM experiments with the same SST forcing. The results suggest that the regionally coupled responses not only resemble the AGCM simulation, but also have a stronger intensity. In comparison, the coupled responses bear greater similarity to the observational composite anomaly. Thus, air-sea coupling enhances the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO. To determine the mechanism responsible for the coupling amplification, an additional set of AGCM experiments, forced with the AMO-induced tropical SST anomalies, is conducted. The SST anomalies are extracted from the simulated AMO-induced SST response in the regionally coupled model. The results suggest that the SST anomalies contribute to the coupling amplification. Thus, tropical air-sea coupling feedback tends to enhance the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO.展开更多
This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as a mode of internal vari- ability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from intern...This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as a mode of internal vari- ability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the "Pre-industrial" experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models' "Historical" simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their "Pre-industrial" simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO.展开更多
In recent decades, the typical El Nio events with the warmest SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific have become less common, and a different of El Nio with the warmest SSTs in the central Pacific, which is flanked ...In recent decades, the typical El Nio events with the warmest SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific have become less common, and a different of El Nio with the warmest SSTs in the central Pacific, which is flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs, has become more fre-quent. The more recent type of El Nio was referred to as central Pacific El Nio, warm pool El Nio, or dateline El Nio, or the El Nio Modoki. Central Pacific El Nio links to a different tropical-to-extratropical teleconnection and exerts different impacts on climate, and several classification approaches have been proposed. In this study, a new classification approach is proposed, which is based on the linear combination (sum or difference) of the two leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), and the typical El Ni o index (TENI) and the central El Nio index (CENI) are able to be derived by projecting the observed SSTA onto these combinations. This classification not only reflects the characteristics of non-orthogonality between the two types of events but also yields one period peaking at approximate two to seven years. In particular, this classification can distin-guish the different impacts of the two types of events on rainfall in the following summer in East China. The typical El Nio events tend to induce intensified rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, whereas the central Pacific El Nio tends to induce intensified rainfall in the Huaihe River valley. Thus, the present approach may be appropriate for studying the impact of different types of El Nio on the East Asian climate.展开更多
A simple approach that considers both internal decadal variability and the effect of anthropogenic forcing is developed to predict the decadal components of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the three decades...A simple approach that considers both internal decadal variability and the effect of anthropogenic forcing is developed to predict the decadal components of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the three decades 2011-2040. The internal decadal component is derived by harmonic wave expansion analyses based on the quasiperiodic evolution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as obtained from observational SST datasets. Furthermore, the external decadal component induced by anthropogenic forcing is assessed with a second-order fit based on the ensemble of projected SSTs in the experiments with multiple coupled climate models associated with the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) under the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B. A validation for the years from 2002 to 2010 based on a comparison of the predicted and the observed SST and their spatial correlation, as well as the root mean square error (RMSE), suggests that the approach is reasonable overall. In addition, the predicted results over the 50°S-50°N global band, the Indian Ocean, the western Pacific Ocean, the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and the North and the South Atlantic Ocean are presented.展开更多
基金supported by the strategic project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA11010406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41375085 and 41421004)
文摘A simple air-sea coupled model, the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled to a mixed-layer slab ocean model, is employed to investigate the impact of air-sea coupling on the signals of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A regional coupling strategy is applied, in which coupling is switched off in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean but switched on in the open oceans elsewhere. The coupled model is forced with warm-phase AMO SST anomalies, and the modeled responses are compared with those from parallel uncoupled AGCM experiments with the same SST forcing. The results suggest that the regionally coupled responses not only resemble the AGCM simulation, but also have a stronger intensity. In comparison, the coupled responses bear greater similarity to the observational composite anomaly. Thus, air-sea coupling enhances the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO. To determine the mechanism responsible for the coupling amplification, an additional set of AGCM experiments, forced with the AMO-induced tropical SST anomalies, is conducted. The SST anomalies are extracted from the simulated AMO-induced SST response in the regionally coupled model. The results suggest that the SST anomalies contribute to the coupling amplification. Thus, tropical air-sea coupling feedback tends to enhance the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41421004)the National Key Basic Research Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0601802 and 2015CB453202)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41375085)
文摘This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as a mode of internal vari- ability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the "Pre-industrial" experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models' "Historical" simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their "Pre-industrial" simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO.
基金supported by the Nationa Basic Research Program of China, "Oceanic circulation, structure characteristics, variation mechanisms, and climate effects of thewarm pool in the tropical Pacific", under Grant 2012CB417403
文摘In recent decades, the typical El Nio events with the warmest SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific have become less common, and a different of El Nio with the warmest SSTs in the central Pacific, which is flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs, has become more fre-quent. The more recent type of El Nio was referred to as central Pacific El Nio, warm pool El Nio, or dateline El Nio, or the El Nio Modoki. Central Pacific El Nio links to a different tropical-to-extratropical teleconnection and exerts different impacts on climate, and several classification approaches have been proposed. In this study, a new classification approach is proposed, which is based on the linear combination (sum or difference) of the two leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), and the typical El Ni o index (TENI) and the central El Nio index (CENI) are able to be derived by projecting the observed SSTA onto these combinations. This classification not only reflects the characteristics of non-orthogonality between the two types of events but also yields one period peaking at approximate two to seven years. In particular, this classification can distin-guish the different impacts of the two types of events on rainfall in the following summer in East China. The typical El Nio events tend to induce intensified rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, whereas the central Pacific El Nio tends to induce intensified rainfall in the Huaihe River valley. Thus, the present approach may be appropriate for studying the impact of different types of El Nio on the East Asian climate.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.XDA05090406 and XDA05110203)the special projects of the China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.GYHY201006022)contribution to the DecCen and Blue Arc projects funded by the Research Council of Norway and to the Centre for Climate Dynamics at the Bjerknes Centre
文摘A simple approach that considers both internal decadal variability and the effect of anthropogenic forcing is developed to predict the decadal components of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the three decades 2011-2040. The internal decadal component is derived by harmonic wave expansion analyses based on the quasiperiodic evolution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as obtained from observational SST datasets. Furthermore, the external decadal component induced by anthropogenic forcing is assessed with a second-order fit based on the ensemble of projected SSTs in the experiments with multiple coupled climate models associated with the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) under the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B. A validation for the years from 2002 to 2010 based on a comparison of the predicted and the observed SST and their spatial correlation, as well as the root mean square error (RMSE), suggests that the approach is reasonable overall. In addition, the predicted results over the 50°S-50°N global band, the Indian Ocean, the western Pacific Ocean, the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and the North and the South Atlantic Ocean are presented.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2016YFA0601802]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number41375085],[grant number 421004]the Strategic Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA11010401]