China twice missed the opportunities of industrial revolution during the late Qing Dynasty, and fell behind Japan both in economic growth and modernization level. Faced with the historic opportunity of the third indus...China twice missed the opportunities of industrial revolution during the late Qing Dynasty, and fell behind Japan both in economic growth and modernization level. Faced with the historic opportunity of the third industrial revolution, China seized the first window of opportunity through opening-up and reform. However, how to seize the second window of opportunity provided by the new technological revolution to catch up in technologies and industries becomes the key issue for China in upgrading China＇s economy and transitioning from “made in China” to “intelligent manufacturing in China.” Based on theoretical models and numerical simulations, this paper summarizes and analyzes the different industrial and technological evolutionary patterns of China during the Modernization Movement in the Qing Dynasty and Japan during the Meiji Restoration. The main finding of this paper is that an economy can only expand its overall products in the most convenient way and maximize economic surplus when it chooses the appropriate technology which suites its own factor endowments for production. This implies that governments of late developing countries shouM focus on the structural upgrade of their factor endowments instead of purely pursuing advanced industries and technologies.展开更多
基金supported by the Major Project of National Academy of Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS),“Study on the Effect of Factor Reallocation due to Industrial Layout Optimization:the Perspective of the Flying Geese Paradigm of the Great Power”(Grant No.10520141001010)the Innovative Project of the CASS,“China’s Modernization:the Characteristics of the Great Power,the Effect of Growth,and Strategic Choices,”the Major Bidding Project of the National Social Science Foundation,“Study of Coordinated Regional Economic Development and Related Policies in the Context of Rapid Development of HighSpeed Rail”(Grant No.11&ZD159)
文摘China twice missed the opportunities of industrial revolution during the late Qing Dynasty, and fell behind Japan both in economic growth and modernization level. Faced with the historic opportunity of the third industrial revolution, China seized the first window of opportunity through opening-up and reform. However, how to seize the second window of opportunity provided by the new technological revolution to catch up in technologies and industries becomes the key issue for China in upgrading China＇s economy and transitioning from “made in China” to “intelligent manufacturing in China.” Based on theoretical models and numerical simulations, this paper summarizes and analyzes the different industrial and technological evolutionary patterns of China during the Modernization Movement in the Qing Dynasty and Japan during the Meiji Restoration. The main finding of this paper is that an economy can only expand its overall products in the most convenient way and maximize economic surplus when it chooses the appropriate technology which suites its own factor endowments for production. This implies that governments of late developing countries shouM focus on the structural upgrade of their factor endowments instead of purely pursuing advanced industries and technologies.
