This paper employs industrial robot installations that represent the level of smart manufacturing as the proxy variable of artificial intelligence(AI). Based on crosscountry panel data and China's provincial panel...This paper employs industrial robot installations that represent the level of smart manufacturing as the proxy variable of artificial intelligence(AI). Based on crosscountry panel data and China's provincial panel data, we create a two-stage least square(2 SLS) regression model to examine the effect of an aging population on AI applications and AI's effect on economic growth. In this manner, we aim to test whether AI has a substitutive effect on labor against the backdrop of an aging society and the kind of such a substitutive effect. Our findings suggest that the labor shortage arising from an aging society will prompt an economy to adopt smart manufacturing more broadly, i.e. an aging society is a driver of AI development. Smart manufacturing has a positive effect on local GDP and helps shore up the slowing economy resulting from an aging society. AI is an important tool for coping with the challenges of an aging society. Current AI development is an "induced innovation," and its substitutive relationship with labor is a "supplemental substitution" rather than "crowding-out substitution." If these characteristics are properly maintained, AI will contribute more to China's economy against the backdrop of an aging society.展开更多
This paper aims to examine the dynamic characteristics of local government debt in the economic cycle and to explore the reasons.Using the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2014 and system GMM,this paper finds that t...This paper aims to examine the dynamic characteristics of local government debt in the economic cycle and to explore the reasons.Using the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2014 and system GMM,this paper finds that the accumulation rate of local debt is characterized by procyclicality.With each additional percentage of the output gap,the implicit debt growth rate may increase by 5.92%and 3.97%respectively during the boom and recession.Even with controlled the market financing environment,this feature is still evident.Further empirical analysis finds that officials’promotion pressure aggravates the pro-cyclical nature of local debt.Local debt is not only an important financing tool for local governments to ease capital constraints and stimulate economic growth,but also threatens economic stability because of its risk attributes.This paper argues that local governments have different emphasis on their goals at different stages of the economic cycle which may be an important reason for the pro-cyclical characteristics of local debts.展开更多
文摘This paper employs industrial robot installations that represent the level of smart manufacturing as the proxy variable of artificial intelligence(AI). Based on crosscountry panel data and China's provincial panel data, we create a two-stage least square(2 SLS) regression model to examine the effect of an aging population on AI applications and AI's effect on economic growth. In this manner, we aim to test whether AI has a substitutive effect on labor against the backdrop of an aging society and the kind of such a substitutive effect. Our findings suggest that the labor shortage arising from an aging society will prompt an economy to adopt smart manufacturing more broadly, i.e. an aging society is a driver of AI development. Smart manufacturing has a positive effect on local GDP and helps shore up the slowing economy resulting from an aging society. AI is an important tool for coping with the challenges of an aging society. Current AI development is an "induced innovation," and its substitutive relationship with labor is a "supplemental substitution" rather than "crowding-out substitution." If these characteristics are properly maintained, AI will contribute more to China's economy against the backdrop of an aging society.
基金The 61st Batch of China Postdoctoral Science Fund project“Social Cost and Long-term Impact of China’s Industrial Policy:Theory and Empirical Research”(2017M610667)The authors take sole responsibility for the paper。
文摘This paper aims to examine the dynamic characteristics of local government debt in the economic cycle and to explore the reasons.Using the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2014 and system GMM,this paper finds that the accumulation rate of local debt is characterized by procyclicality.With each additional percentage of the output gap,the implicit debt growth rate may increase by 5.92%and 3.97%respectively during the boom and recession.Even with controlled the market financing environment,this feature is still evident.Further empirical analysis finds that officials’promotion pressure aggravates the pro-cyclical nature of local debt.Local debt is not only an important financing tool for local governments to ease capital constraints and stimulate economic growth,but also threatens economic stability because of its risk attributes.This paper argues that local governments have different emphasis on their goals at different stages of the economic cycle which may be an important reason for the pro-cyclical characteristics of local debts.
