2024全球十大趋势

In 2023, momentous changes of a like not seen in a century accelerated across the globe. The world as a whole was in a period of turbulence and change: regional conflicts cropped up, major-country competition became more complex, climate change deteriorated, and the scientific and technological revolution accelerated. The international security situation was worrisome, against which China demonstrated its sense of duty as a responsible country. Looking forward to 2024, in the face of an unstable, uncertain, and insecure external environment, China will advance its four global initiatives in a coordinated manner, contributing positive energy to the world.

India's Arctic Policy:a critical appraisal

After much procrastination,the Indian government has released its much awaited and delayed Arctic Policy document on 17 March 22 with the theme being“Building a Partnership for Sustainable Development”.It has been 15 years since India commenced its scientific research in the Arctic region and this policy document,charting out the direction that India aspires to assume will be keenly examined by the diverse stakeholders of the region.Despite being an Arctic Council observer for nearly a decade,India continues to view the Arctic from a mere scientific prism and yet again missed on the opportunity to elucidate her geo-economic,geostrategic,economic and geopolitical aspirations in the hugely vital region.There is no gainsaying that the research bases discreetly also act as pillars of geopolitical engagement and indirectly this scientific diplomacy ushers in peace and prevent conflict situations yet a holistic national policy enunciating a roadmap and vision for dealing in a region which has eight sovereign states,thirteen sovereign states as observers,various intergovernmental and inter-parliamentarian outfits,NGOs and a complex governance structure was much awaited.

Assessment on India’s involvement and capacity-building in Arctic Science

India became an observer in Arctic Council in 2013 and has three research stations operational in the poles,including“Maitri”commissioned in 1989 and“Bharati”commissioned in 2012 at Antarctic and“Himadri”at Arctic.Though the Government of India has consistently been extending full support to the research endeavours yet the same is bogged by inadequate research output,lack of dedicated polar research vessel and other bureaucratic bottlenecks.A massive void in the Indian scientific pursuits is that India does not possess a polar research vessel or an icebreaker and has to rely on chartered vessels,seriously limiting its research timeframe as well as huge economic drain and thus compromising the scientific research.This cleft in the professed research narrative despite having a physical presence for over 3 decades in the polar regions and the proposal for acquisition of a polar research vessel having been approved in June 2010 yet the same is yet to be operationalised which is seriously impinging the scientific research as well as the professed commitment to Arctic research.Recently,India has released its draft Arctic Policy and had sought public comments thereon till 26 January 21 before its finalisation.India’s draft policy reiterates the oft stated goals of scientific research,connectivity,global governance and international cooperation,and human development with emphasis on Indian human resource pool.The inspiration of a delayed Indian policy on the High North appears to be the Chinese white paper of 2018.The scientific pursuits can propel the strategic engagement in the region to greater levels by extensive collaboration and cooperation with several other nations present there.Indian attempts so far have remained acutely short of the promise and India should build on its strengths for obtaining a leadership position in this strategically vital and economically lucrative region.

The Sino-U.S. Frictions and Global Security under the Backdrop of Changes Unseen in a Century

Since the first half of 2019,the Sino-U.S.trade frictions have become more and more intense since the United States has announced higher and higher tariffs,having attracted a lot of attention and resources given by academia,diplomacy and business circles at home and abroad.

Stigmatization and Scientific Inquiry in the Tracing of the Origin of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in the United States

The United States was hard hit by the great influenza pandemic of 1918.The national policy of putting the war first,the unprecedented scale of military training,and the worldwide troop movements and engagement created the conditions for the spread of the pandemic and at the same time seriously weakened US preparedness.The unprecedented pandemic threw American society into extreme panic and spawned all kinds of hypotheses about the pandemic’s geographic origin.Some of the press turned scientifically“tracing the flu”into a succession of pejorative geopolitical exonyms,stigmatizing it as“Spanish flu,”“Russian flu,”“German poisoning,”“Chinese plague,”etc.The groundless ascription of a geographic origin to the influenza pandemic was questioned at the time by insightful American medical professionals and even by Chinese medical experts.In the aftermath of the pandemic,tracking its source became a professional issue of pure medical science,with the search for the pathogen of the pandemic becoming a priority.The discovery and genetic sequencing of the 1918 influenza virus by scientists in the US and other countries led to landmark advances in the discovery of the pathogen,so the importance of tracing it back to its place of origin has taken a back seat.Although evidence of the geographic origin of the 1918 influenza pandemic is not conclusive,medical science has developed enough to disprove the ridiculous“geographic tracking”in the US during the pandemic.

＇OBOR＇ and South Asia： Can India and China Cope with the Emerging ＇New Normal＇ in the Region？

Ever since President Xi Jinping announced the ＇One Belt, One Road＇ project in 2013, more than 66 countries across the continent expressed their interest to be part of this grand project of the century. In South Asia, most of the countries embraced the idea except India. There is no doubt that OBOR is likely to have farreaching implications on South Asian politics, economy and security. China has been engaging in the region through various economic and development projects for last two decades. This has raised serious security and strategic concerns in India. China＇s growing bilateral trade investments and development-oriented connectivity projects in India＇s neighbourhood have been popularly dubbed as China＇s ＇String of Pearl Strategy＇ aimed to contract India＇s sphere of influence in the region. There is a deficit of trust between emerging India and rising China over their interests and intentions. Many observers, however, view OBOR as a game changer at least in South Asia, where this would necessitate re-alignment and re-balancing. But, how does India perceive this project is a matter of serious concern that would shape the nature of implications on South Asia？ In this context, this article examines the impact of OBOR on South Asia Region from sub-regional perspectives and it explores how China can play a constructive role by reconciling its grand strategy with national interests of South Asian countries in order to minimise the adverse impact of OBOR [especially China-Pakistan Economic Corridor （CPEC）] on the peace and security of the region through effective CBMs.