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CLIMATE CHANGE:LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS 被引量:1
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作者 高新全 张欣 钱维宏 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2006年第2期139-149,共11页
Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and varioas oscillations. ... Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and varioas oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series tbr the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external tbrcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system. 展开更多
关键词 climate change trend and oscillation natural climate system nonlinear model system
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TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAGES IN CHINA UNDER GLOBAL WARMING
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作者 张娇艳 吴立广 张强 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2013年第2期120-129,共10页
Over the past 25 years, an annual average of 6 to 7 tropical cyclones (TCs) made landfall onChina mainland and Hainan Island with an average intensity of 29.9 m/s at landfall and maintained at leasttropical storm inte... Over the past 25 years, an annual average of 6 to 7 tropical cyclones (TCs) made landfall onChina mainland and Hainan Island with an average intensity of 29.9 m/s at landfall and maintained at leasttropical storm intensity for 15.6 hours over land, leading to 505 deaths and 37 billion yuan in directeconomic loss, which accounted for 0.4% of the annual GDP of China. Although there was little change inthe overall landfall frequency, intensity at landfall and overland duration, the annual total direct economicloss increased significantly due to the rapid economic development over the past 25 years. Under globalwarming, the intensity of TCs that made landfall on Hainan decreased but the overland duration andfrequency of TCs that made landfall on Fujian and Zhejiang increased. At the national and provincial levels,the ratio of the direct economic loss to GDP and casualties caused by landfall tropical cyclones decreased,suggesting the effectiveness of disaster prevention and reduction in China. 展开更多
关键词 TROPICAL CYCLONE track economic loss global WARMING
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