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Study on Multi-Scale Blending Initial Condition Perturbations for a Regional Ensemble Prediction System 被引量:28
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作者 ZHANG Hanbin CHEN Jing +2 位作者 ZHI Xiefei WANG Yi WANG Yanan 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第8期1143-1155,共13页
An initial conditions (ICs) perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system (REPS). Three issues were identified and investigated: (1) the impacts of... An initial conditions (ICs) perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system (REPS). Three issues were identified and investigated: (1) the impacts of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill of the REPS; (2) the scale characteristic of the IC perturbations of the REPS; and (3) whether the REPS's skill could be improved by adding large-scale information to the IC perturbations. Numerical experiments were conducted to reveal the impact of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill. The scales of IC perturbations from the REPS and an operational global ensemble prediction system (GEPS) were analyzed. A "multi-scale blending" (MSB) IC perturbation scheme was developed, and the main findings can be summarized as follows: The growth rates of the ensemble spread of the REPS are sensitive to the scale of the IC perturbations; the ensemble forecast skills can benefit from large-scale perturbations; the global ensemble IC perturbations exhibit more power at larger scales, while the regional ensemble IC perturbations contain more power at smaller scales; the MSB method can generate IC perturbations by combining the small-scale component from the REPS and the large-scale component from the GEPS; the energy norm growth of the MSB-generated perturbations can be appropriate at all forecast lead times; and the MSB-based REPS shows higher skill than the original system, as determined by ensemble forecast verification. 展开更多
关键词 regional ensemble prediction system spectral analysis multi-scale blending initial condition perturbations
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VERIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS FROM CMA AND JMA GLOBAL MODELS 被引量:6
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作者 王雨 沈学顺 陈德辉 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2012年第4期537-542,共6页
The number of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean in 2009 is significantly less than the average (27.4). However, the number of landfall TC over China's Mainland ... The number of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean in 2009 is significantly less than the average (27.4). However, the number of landfall TC over China's Mainland and its associated rainfall is more than the average. This paper focuses on the performance of numerical weather prediction (NWP) of landfall TC precipitation over China in 2009. The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) models are compared. Although the schemes of physical processes, the data assimilation system and the dynamic frame are entirely different for the two models, the results of forecast verification are similar to each other for TC rainfall and track except for TC Goni. In this paper, a day with daily rainfall amount greater than 50 mm was selected as a storm rain day when there was a TC affecting the mainland. There are 32 storm rain days related to the landing of typhoons and tropical depressions. The rainfall forecast verification methods of National Meteorological Centre (NMC) of CMA are selected to verify the models' rainfall forecast. Observational precipitation analyses related to TCs in 2009 indicate a U-shape spatial distribution in China. It is found that the rain belt forecasted by the two models within 60 hours shows good agreement with observations, both in the location and the maximum rainfall center. Beyond 3 days, the forecasted rainfall belt shifts northward on average, and the rainfall amount of the model forecasts becomes under-predicted. The rainfall intensity of CMA model forecast is more reasonable than that of JMA model. For heavy rain, the JMA model made more missing forecasts. The TC rainfall is verified in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Hainan where rainfall amount related to TCs is relatively larger than in other regions. The results indicate that the model forecast for Guangdong and Guangxi is more skillful than that for Hainan. The rainfall forecast for Hainan remains difficult for the models because of insufficient observation data and special tropical ocean climate. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone RAINFALL MODEL VERIFICATION
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Preliminary studies on the dynamic prediction method of rainfall-triggered landslide 被引量:5
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作者 CHEN Yue-li CHEN De-hui +1 位作者 LI Ze-chun HUANG Jun-bao 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第10期1735-1745,共11页
Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional... Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System; LFM: Landslide Forecast Model),basing on the GRAPES model and the landslide predicting model TRIGRS(Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Model) for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.This integrated system is evaluated in Dehua County,Fujian Province, where typhoon Bilis triggered widespread landslides in July 2006. The GRAPES model runs in 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries are provided by NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL(Final) Operational Global Analysis data. Quantitative precipitation forecasting products of the GRAPES model are downscaled to 25 m×25 m horizontal resolution by bilinear interpolation to drive the TRIGRS model. Results show that the observed areas locate in the high risk areas, and the GRAPES-LFM model could capture about 74% of the historical landslides with the rainfall intense 30mm/h. Meanwhile, this paper illustrates the relationship between the factor of safety(FS) and different rainfall patterns. GRAPES-LFM model enables us to further develop a regional, early warning dynamic prediction tool of rainfall-induced landslides. 展开更多
关键词 LANDSLIDE PRECIPITATION Early warning system Landslide predicting model
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A Nonlinear Representation of Model Uncertainty in a Convective-Scale Ensemble Prediction System 被引量:1
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作者 Zhizhen XU Jing CHEN +2 位作者 Mu MU Guokun DAI Yanan MA 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第9期1432-1450,共19页
How to accurately address model uncertainties with consideration of the rapid nonlinear error growth characteristics in a convection-allowing system is a crucial issue for performing convection-scale ensemble forecast... How to accurately address model uncertainties with consideration of the rapid nonlinear error growth characteristics in a convection-allowing system is a crucial issue for performing convection-scale ensemble forecasts.In this study,a new nonlinear model perturbation technique for convective-scale ensemble forecasts is developed to consider a nonlinear representation of model errors in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System(GRAPES)Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System(CAEPS).The nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV)approach,that is,conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation-forcing(CNOP-F),is applied in this study,to construct a nonlinear model perturbation method for GRAPES-CAEPS.Three experiments are performed:One of them is the CTL experiment,without adding any model perturbation;the other two are NFSV-perturbed experiments,which are perturbed by NFSV with two different groups of constraint radii to test the sensitivity of the perturbation magnitude constraint.Verification results show that the NFSV-perturbed experiments achieve an overall improvement and produce more skillful forecasts compared to the CTL experiment,which indicates that the nonlinear NFSV-perturbed method can be used as an effective model perturbation method for convection-scale ensemble forecasts.Additionally,the NFSV-L experiment with large perturbation constraints generally performs better than the NFSV-S experiment with small perturbation constraints in the verification for upper-air and surface weather variables.But for precipitation verification,the NFSV-S experiment performs better in forecasts for light precipitation,and the NFSV-L experiment performs better in forecasts for heavier precipitation,indicating that for different precipitation events,the perturbation magnitude constraint must be carefully selected.All the findings above lay a foundation for the design of nonlinear model perturbation methods for future CAEPSs. 展开更多
关键词 Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System model uncertainty nonlinear forcing singular vector
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Model Uncertainty Representation for a Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System Based on CNOP-P 被引量:1
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作者 Lu WANG Xueshun SHEN +1 位作者 Juanjuan LIU Bin WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第8期817-831,共15页
Formulating model uncertainties for a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system(CAEPS)is a much more challenging problem compared to well-utilized approaches in synoptic weather forecasting.A new approach is prop... Formulating model uncertainties for a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system(CAEPS)is a much more challenging problem compared to well-utilized approaches in synoptic weather forecasting.A new approach is proposed and tested through assuming that the model uncertainty should reasonably describe the fast nonlinear error growth of the convection-allowing model,due to the fast developing character and strong nonlinearity of convective events.The Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameters(CNOP-P)is applied in this study.Also,an ensemble approach is adopted to solve the CNOP-P problem.By using five locally developed strong convective events that occurred in pre-rainy season of South China,the most sensitive parameters were detected based on CNOP-P,which resulted in the maximum variations in precipitation.A formulation of model uncertainty is designed by adding stochastic perturbations into these sensitive parameters.Through comparison ensemble experiments by using all the 13 heavy rainfall cases that occurred in the flood season of South China in 2017,the advantages of the CNOP-P-based method are examined and verified by comparing with the well-utilized stochastically perturbed physics tendencies(SPPT)scheme.The results indicate that the CNOP-P-based method has potential in improving the under-dispersive problem of the current CAEPS. 展开更多
关键词 CNOP-P convective scale model uncertainty ensemble forecastforecast
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The Construction of SCM in GRAPES and Its Applications in Two Field Experiment Simulations 被引量:13
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作者 杨军丽 沈学顺 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第3期534-550,共17页
A Single Column Model(SCM) for Global and Regional Atmospheric Prediction Enhanced System (GRAPES) is constructed for the purpose of evaluating physical process parameterizations.Two observational datasets including W... A Single Column Model(SCM) for Global and Regional Atmospheric Prediction Enhanced System (GRAPES) is constructed for the purpose of evaluating physical process parameterizations.Two observational datasets including Wangara and the third Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study(GABLS-3) SCM field observations have been applied to evaluate this SCM.By these two numerical experiments,the GRAPESSCM is verified to be correctly constructed.Furthermore, the interaction between the land surface process and atmospheric boundary layer(ABL) is discussed through the second experiment.It is found that CASE3(CoLM land surface scheme coupled with ABL scheme) simulates less sensible heat fluxes and smaller surface temperature which corresponds with its lower potential temperature at the bottom of the ABL.Moreover,CASE3 simulates turbulence that is weaker during the daytime and stronger during nighttime,corresponding with its wind speed at 200 m which is bigger during daytime and smaller during nighttime.However,they are generally opposite in CASE2(SLAB coupled with ABL).The initial profile of the water vapor mixing ratio is artificially increased by the experiment setup which results in the simulated water vapor mixing becoming wetter than actually observed.CASE1 (observed surface temperature taken as lower thermal forcing) and CASE2 have no soil moisture prediction and simulate a similar water vapor mixing ratio,while CASE3 has a soil moisture prediction and simulates wetter.It is also shown that the time step may affect the stabilization of the ABL when the vertical levels of the SCM are fixed. 展开更多
关键词 GRAPES Single Column Model Wangara GABLS-3
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Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model 被引量:12
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作者 Hong-jun BAO Li-li WANG +2 位作者 Zhi-jia LI Lin-na ZHAO Guo-ping ZHANG 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS 2010年第2期121-131,共11页
A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL (BTOPMC), which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, ... A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL (BTOPMC), which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model's applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin'anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model's applicability. 展开更多
关键词 digital elevation model BTOPMC model Xin' anjiang model daily rainfall-runoff simulation SCE-UA method humid watershed semi-humid to semi-arid watershed
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Improvement of the Semi-Lagrangian Advection Scheme in the GRAPES Model:Theoretical Analysis and Idealized Tests 被引量:7
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作者 HUANG Bo CHEN Dehui +1 位作者 LI Xingliang LI Chao 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2014年第3期693-704,共12页
ABSTRACT The Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES) is the newgeneration numerical weather predic- tion (NWP) system developed by the China Meteorological Administration. It is a fully compre... ABSTRACT The Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES) is the newgeneration numerical weather predic- tion (NWP) system developed by the China Meteorological Administration. It is a fully compressible non-hydrostatical global/regional unified model that uses a traditional semi-Lagrangian advection scheme with cubic Lagrangian interpola tion (referred to as the SL_CL scheme). The SL_CL scheme has been used in many operational NWP models, but there are still some deficiencies, such as the damping effects due to the interpolation and the relatively low accuracy. Based on Reich's semi-Lagrangian advection scheme (referred to as the R2007 scheme), the Re_R2007 scheme that uses the low- and high-order B-spline function for interpolation at the departure point, is developed in this paper. One- and two-dimensional idealized tests in the rectangular coordinate system with uniform grid cells were conducted to compare the Re..R2007 scheme and the SL_CL scheme. The numerical results showed that: (1) the damping effects were remarkably reduced with the Re_R2007 scheme; and (2) the normalized errors of the Re_R2007 scheme were about 7.5 and 3 times smaller than those of the SL_CL scheme in one- and two-dimensional tests, respectively, indicating the higher accuracy of the Re..R2007 scheme. Furthermore, two solid-body rotation tests were conducted in the latitude-longitude spherical coordinate system with non uniform grid cells, which also verified the Re_R2007 scheme's advantages. Finally, in comparison with other global advection schemes, the Re_R2007 scheme was competitive in terms of accuracy and flow independence. An encouraging possibility for the application of the Re_R2007 scheme to the GRAPES model is provided. 展开更多
关键词 numerical models semi-Lagrangian method advection scheme numerical accuracy spline interpolation
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Research and Operational Development of Numerical Weather Prediction in China 被引量:14
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作者 Xueshun SHEN Jianjie WANG +2 位作者 Zechun LI Dehui CHEN Jiandong GONG 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第4期675-698,共24页
Numerical weather prediction(NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological communit... Numerical weather prediction(NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological community.Fundamental achievements have been made in the theories, methods, and NWP model development in China, which are of certain international impacts. In this paper, the scientific and technological progress of NWP in China since1949 is summarized. The current status and recent progress of the domestically developed NWP system-GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System) are presented. Through independent research and development in the past 10 years, the operational GRAPES system has been established, which includes both regional and global deterministic and ensemble prediction models, with resolutions of 3-10 km for regional and 25-50 km for global forecasts. Major improvements include establishment of a new non-hydrostatic dynamic core, setup of four-dimensional variational data assimilation, and development of associated satellite application. As members of the GRAPES system, prediction models for atmospheric chemistry and air pollution, tropical cyclones, and ocean waves have also been developed and put into operational use. The GRAPES system has been an important milestone in NWP science and technology in China. 展开更多
关键词 numerical weather prediction(NWP) Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System(GRAPES) semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian grid-point model physical process four-dimensional variational assimilation satellite data assimilation
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Meteorological applications of precipitable water vapor measurements retrieved by the national GNSS network of China 被引量:7
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作者 Liang Hong Cao Yunchang +3 位作者 Wan Xiaomin Xu Zhifang Wang Haishen Hu Heng 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 2015年第2期135-142,共8页
In this study, the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network of China is discussed, which can be used to monitor atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV). By the end of 2013, the network had 952 GNSS sit... In this study, the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network of China is discussed, which can be used to monitor atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV). By the end of 2013, the network had 952 GNSS sites, including 260 belonging to the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) and 692 belonging to the China Meteorological Administration GNSS network (CMAGN). Additionally, GNSS observation collecting and data processing procedures are presented and PWV data quality control methods are investigated. PWV levels as determined by GNSS and radiosonde are compared. The results show that GNSS estimates are generally in good agreement with measurements of radio- sondes and water vapor radiometers (WVR). The PWV retrieved by the national GNSS network is used in weather forecasting, assimilation of data into numerical weather prediction models, the validation of PWV estimates by radiosonde, and plum rain monitoring. The network is also used to monitor the total ionospheric electron content. 展开更多
关键词 Precipitable water vapor (PWV) Global navigation satellite system(GNSS) Crustal Movement ObservationNetwork of China (CMONOC)China meteorological administra-tion GNSS network (CMAGN) Water vapor radiometers (WVR) Quality control Meteorological application Assimilation
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A Case Study of Impact of FY-2C Satellite Data in Cloud Analysis to Improve Short-Range Precipitation Forecast 被引量:6
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作者 LIU Rui-Xia CHEN Hong-Bin +1 位作者 CHEN De-Hui XU Guo-Qiang 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2014年第6期527-533,共7页
Chinese FengYun-2C(FY-2C) satellite data were combined into the Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) model to obtain three-dimensional cloud parameters and rain content. These parameters analyzed by LAPS were us... Chinese FengYun-2C(FY-2C) satellite data were combined into the Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) model to obtain three-dimensional cloud parameters and rain content. These parameters analyzed by LAPS were used to initialize the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System model(GRAPES) in China to predict precipitation in a rainstorm case in the country. Three prediction experiments were conducted and were used to investigate the impacts of FY-2C satellite data on cloud analysis of LAPS and on short range precipitation forecasts. In the first experiment, the initial cloud fields was zero value. In the second, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS without combining the satellite data. In the third experiment, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS including satellite data. The results indicated that the FY-2C satellite data combination in LAPS can show more realistic cloud distributions, and the model simulation for precipitation in 1–6 h had certain improvements over that when satellite data and complex cloud analysis were not applied. 展开更多
关键词 FY-2C satellite data cloud analysis precipitation forecast impact study
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A STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON NIDA(2016) USING A NEW DOUBLE-MOMENT MICROPHYSICS SCHEME IN THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL 被引量:5
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作者 LI Zhe ZHANG Yu-tao +2 位作者 LIU Qi-jun FU Shi-zuo MA Zhan-shan 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2018年第2期123-130,共8页
The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Lium... The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Liuma microphysics scheme are compared with observations and those simulated with a commonly-used microphysics scheme(WSM6). Results show that using different microphysics schemes does not significantly alter the track of the typhoon but does significantly affect the intensity and the cloud structure of the typhoon. Results also show that the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometeors and the horizontal distribution of peripheral rainband are affected by the microphysics scheme. The mixing ratios of rain water and graupel correlate highly with the vertical velocity component and equivalent potential temperature at the typhoon eye-wall region. According to the simulation with WSM 6 scheme,it is likely that the very low typhoon central pressure results from the positive feedback between hydrometeors and typhoon intensity. As the ice-phase hydrometeors are mostly graupel in the Liuma microphysics scheme, further improvement in this aspect is required. 展开更多
关键词 Liuma microphysics scheme typhoon intensity cloud microphysics typhoon structure Weather Research and Forecasting model
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A Step Forward toward Effectively Using Hyperspectral IR Sounding Information in NWP 被引量:5
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作者 Jun LI Wei HAN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第11期1263-1264,共2页
Satellite-based atmospheric sounding measurements with high spectral resolution or from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders are important global observations for improving weather forecasts through assimilating the... Satellite-based atmospheric sounding measurements with high spectral resolution or from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders are important global observations for improving weather forecasts through assimilating them into operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. 展开更多
关键词 In A Step Forward toward Effectively Using Hyperspectral IR Sounding Information in NWP
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Representing Model Uncertainty by Multi-Stochastic Physics Approaches in the GRAPES Ensemble 被引量:4
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作者 Zhizhen XU Jing CHEN +2 位作者 Zheng JIN Hongqi LI Fajing CHEN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第4期328-346,共19页
To represent model uncertainties more comprehensively,a stochastically perturbed parameterization(SPP)scheme consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 parameters in the microphysics,convection... To represent model uncertainties more comprehensively,a stochastically perturbed parameterization(SPP)scheme consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 parameters in the microphysics,convection,boundary layer,and surface layer parameterization schemes,as well as the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies(SPPT)scheme,and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter(SKEB)scheme,is applied in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System(GRAPES-REPS)to evaluate and compare the general performance of various combinations of multiple stochastic physics schemes.Six experiments are performed for a summer month(1-30 June 2015)over China and multiple verification metrics are used.The results show that:(1)All stochastic experiments outperform the control(CTL)experiment,and all combinations of stochastic parameterization schemes perform better than the single SPP scheme,indicating that stochastic methods can effectively improve the forecast skill,and combinations of multiple stochastic parameterization schemes can better represent model uncertainties;(2)The combination of all three stochastic physics schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)outperforms any other combination of two schemes in precipitation forecasting and surface and upper-air verification to better represent the model uncertainties and improve the forecast skill;(3)Combining SKEB with SPP and/or SPPT results in a notable increase in the spread and reduction in outliers for the upper-air wind speed.SKEB directly perturbs the wind field and therefore its addition will greatly impact the upper-air wind-speed fields,and it contributes most to the improvement in spread and outliers for wind;(4)The introduction of SPP has a positive added value,and does not lead to large changes in the evolution of the kinetic energy(KE)spectrum at any wavelength;(5)The introduction of SPPT and SKEB would cause a 5%-10%and 30%-80%change in the KE of mesoscale systems,and all three stochastic schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)mainly affect the KE of mesoscale systems.This study indicates the potential of combining multiple stochastic physics schemes and lays a foundation for the future development and design of regional and global ensembles. 展开更多
关键词 ENSEMBLE prediction model uncertainty stochastically perturbed parameterization multi-stochastic PHYSICS APPROACHES
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A New Approach for Parameter Optimization in Land Surface Model 被引量:3
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作者 李红祺 郭维栋 +2 位作者 孙国栋 张耀存 符淙斌 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第5期1056-1066,共11页
In this study,a new parameter optimization method was used to investigate the expansion of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) in a land surface model (LSM) using long-term enhanced field observation... In this study,a new parameter optimization method was used to investigate the expansion of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) in a land surface model (LSM) using long-term enhanced field observations at Tongyu station in Jilin Province,China,combined with a sophisticated LSM (common land model,CoLM).Tongyu station is a reference site of the international Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project (CEOP) that has studied semiarid regions that have undergone desertification,salination,and degradation since late 1960s.In this study,three key land-surface parameters,namely,soil color,proportion of sand or clay in soil,and leaf-area index were chosen as parameters to be optimized.Our study comprised three experiments:First,a single-parameter optimization was performed,while the second and third experiments performed triple-and six-parameter optimizations,respectively.Notable improvements in simulating sensible heat flux (SH),latent heat flux (LH),soil temperature (TS),and moisture (MS) at shallow layers were achieved using the optimized parameters.The multiple-parameter optimization experiments performed better than the single-parameter experminent.All results demonstrate that the CNOP method can be used to optimize expanded parameters in an LSM.Moreover,clear mathematical meaning,simple design structure,and rapid computability give this method great potential for further application to parameter optimization in LSMs. 展开更多
关键词 land surface model parameter optimization conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP)
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ON USE OF LHN METHOD TO ASSIMILATE THE INTENSIFIED SURFACE PRECIPITATIONS FOR GRAPES_MESO MODEL INITIALIZATION 被引量:1
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作者 吴亚丽 陈德辉 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2016年第4期544-558,共15页
The quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF) in very-short range(0-12 hours) has been investigated in this paper by using a convective-scale(3km) GRAPES_Meso model. At first, a latent heat nudging(LHN) scheme to assim... The quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF) in very-short range(0-12 hours) has been investigated in this paper by using a convective-scale(3km) GRAPES_Meso model. At first, a latent heat nudging(LHN) scheme to assimilate the hourly intensified surface precipitation data was set up to enhance the initialization of GRAPES_Meso integration. And then based on the LHN scheme, a convective-scale prediction system was built up in considering the initial "triggering"uncertainties by means of multi-scale initial analysis(MSIA), such as the three-dimensional variational data assimilation(3DVAR), the traditional LHN method(VAR0LHN3), the cycling LHN method(CYCLING), the spatial filtering(SS) and the temporal filtering(DFI) LHN methods. Furthermore, the probability matching(PM) method was used to generate the QPF in very-short range by combining the precipitation forecasts of the five runs. The experiments for one month were carried out to validate the MSIA and PM method for QPF in very-short range.The numerical simulation results showed that:(1) in comparison with the control run, the CYCLING run could generate the smaller-scale initial moist increments and was better for reducing the spin-up time and triggering the convection in a very-short time;(2) the DFI runs could generate the initial analysis fields with relatively larger-scale initial increments and trigger the weaker convections at the beginning time(0-3h) of integration, but enhance them at latter time(6-12h);(3) by combining the five runs with different convection triggering features, the PM method could significantly improve the QPF in very-short range in comparison to any single run. Therefore, the QPF with a small size of combining members proposed here is quite prospective in operation for its lower computation cost and better performance. 展开更多
关键词 convective-scale latent heat nudging (LHN) very-short-range QPF multi-scale initial analysis (MSIA) probability matching (PM)
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The Impact of Assimilating FY-3C GNOS GPS Radio Occultation Observations on GRAPES Forecasts 被引量:1
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作者 WANG Jin-cheng GONG Jian-dong HAN Wei 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2020年第4期390-401,共12页
In the present study, a gross quality control (QC) procedure is proposed for the Global Navigation Satellite System Occultation Sounder (GNOS) Global Positioning System radio occultation (GPS RO) refractivity data to ... In the present study, a gross quality control (QC) procedure is proposed for the Global Navigation Satellite System Occultation Sounder (GNOS) Global Positioning System radio occultation (GPS RO) refractivity data to remove abnormal data before they are assimilated. It consists of a climate extreme check removing data outside the range of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) climate maxima and minima over approximately five years, and a vertical gradient check that rejects profiles containing super-refractions. These two QC steps were applied sequentially to identify outliers in GNOS GPS RO refractivity data during boreal winter 2013/2014.All of the abnormal refractivity profiles and the outliers at each level of the GNOS GPS RO observations were effectively removed by the proposed QC procedure. The post-QC GNOS GPS RO refractivity observations were then assimilated in the Global/Regional Analysis and PrEdiction System (GRAPES) using the three-dimensional variational(3D-Var) system. The impacts of the GNOS refractivity observation on GRAPES analysis and forecasting were evaluated and analyzed using an observation system experiment run over one whole winter season of 2013/2014. The experiment results demonstrated a positive impact of GNOS GPS RO data on analysis and forecast quality. The root mean squared error of GRAPES analysis temperature was reduced by 1%in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics and in the tropics, and the anomaly correlation scores of the forecasted 500-hPa geopotential height over the SH increased significantly during days 1 to 5. Overall, the benefits of using GNOS GPS RO data are significant in the SH and tropics. 展开更多
关键词 GNOS FY-3C GPS RO Global NWP data assimilation GRAPES
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Validation and correction of sea surface salinity retrieval from SMAP 被引量:1
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作者 Sisi Qin Hui Wang +3 位作者 Jiang Zhu Liying Wan Yu Zhang Haoyun Wang 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第3期148-158,共11页
In this study, sea surface salinity(SSS) Level 3(L3) daily product derived from soil moisture active passive(SMAP)during the year 2016, was validated and compared with SSS daily products derived from soil Moisture and... In this study, sea surface salinity(SSS) Level 3(L3) daily product derived from soil moisture active passive(SMAP)during the year 2016, was validated and compared with SSS daily products derived from soil Moisture and ocean salinity(SMOS) and in-situ measurements. Generally, the root mean square error(RMSE) of the daily SSS products is larger along the coastal areas and at high latitudes and is smaller in the tropical regions and open oceans. Comparisons between the two types of daily satellite SSS product revealed that the RMSE was higher in the daily SMOS product than in the SMAP, whereas the bias of the daily SMOS was observed to be less than that of the SMAP when compared with Argo floats data. In addition, the latitude-dependent bias and RMSE of the SMAP SSS were found to be primarily influenced by the precipitation and the sea surface temperature(SST). Then, a regression analysis method which has adopted the precipitation and SST data was used to correct the larger bias of the daily SMAP product. It was confirmed that the corrected daily SMAP product could be used for assimilation in high-resolution forecast models, due to the fact that it was demonstrated to be unbiased and much closer to the in-situ measurements than the original uncorrected SMAP product. 展开更多
关键词 sea surface salinity(SSS) SOIL MOISTURE active passive(SMAP) SOIL MOISTURE and ocean salinity(SMOS) VALIDATION CORRECTION
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Application of a Neural Network to Store and Compute the Optical Properties of Non-Spherical Particles 被引量:1
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作者 Jinhe YU Lei BI +1 位作者 Wei HAN Xiaoye ZHANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第12期2024-2039,共16页
Radiative transfer simulations and remote sensing studies fundamentally require accurate and efficient computation of the optical properties of non-spherical particles.This paper proposes a deep learning(DL)scheme in ... Radiative transfer simulations and remote sensing studies fundamentally require accurate and efficient computation of the optical properties of non-spherical particles.This paper proposes a deep learning(DL)scheme in conjunction with an optical property database to achieve this goal.Deep neural network(DNN)architectures were obtained from a dataset of the optical properties of super-spheroids with extensive shape parameters,size parameters,and refractive indices.The dataset was computed through the invariant imbedding T-matrix method.Four separate DNN architectures were created to compute the extinction efficiency factor,single-scattering albedo,asymmetry factor,and phase matrix.The criterion for designing these neural networks was the achievement of the highest prediction accuracy with minimal DNN parameters.The numerical results demonstrate that the determination coefficients are greater than 0.999 between the prediction values from the neural networks and the truth values from the database,which indicates that the DNN can reproduce the optical properties in the dataset with high accuracy.In addition,the DNN model can robustly predict the optical properties of particles with high accuracy for shape parameters or refractive indices that are unavailable in the database.Importantly,the ratio of the database size(~127 GB)to that of the DNN parameters(~20 MB)is approximately 6810,implying that the DNN model can be treated as a highly compressed database that can be used as an alternative to the original database for real-time computing of the optical properties of non-spherical particles in radiative transfer and atmospheric models. 展开更多
关键词 non-spherical particles light scattering super-spheroid model deep learning neural network
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HEIGHT OF ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER AS DETECTED BY COSMIC GPS RADIO OCCULTATION DATA
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作者 刘艳 唐南军 杨学胜 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2016年第1期74-82,共9页
The characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer height over the global ocean were studied based on the Constellation Observation System of Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC) refractivity data from 2007 t... The characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer height over the global ocean were studied based on the Constellation Observation System of Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC) refractivity data from 2007 to2012.Results show that the height is much characteristic of seasonal,inter-annual and regional variation.Globally,the spatial distribution of the annual mean top height shows a symmetrical zonal structure,which is more zonal in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere.The boundary layer top is highest in the tropics and gradually decreases towards higher latitudes.The height is in a range of 3 to 3.5 km in the tropics,2 to 2.5 km in the subtropical regions,and 1 to 1.5 km or even lower in middle and high latitudes.The diurnal variation of the top height is not obvious,with the height varying from tens to hundreds of meters.Furthermore,it is different from region to region,some regions have the maximum height during 9:00 to 12:00,others at 15:00 to18:00. 展开更多
关键词 statistical characteristics atmospheric boundary layer height REFRACTIVITY COSMIC/GPS
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