Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model,an analytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients.The analytical curve is fitted to data in Belgium,France,N...Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model,an analytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients.The analytical curve is fitted to data in Belgium,France,New York City and Switzerland,with a correlation coefficient exceeding 98.8%,suggesting that finer models are unnecessary with such macroscopic data.The fitting is used to extract estimates of the doubling time in the ascending phase of the epidemic,the mean recovery time and,for those who require medical intervention,the mean hospitalization time.Large variations can be observed among different outbreaks.展开更多
文摘Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model,an analytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients.The analytical curve is fitted to data in Belgium,France,New York City and Switzerland,with a correlation coefficient exceeding 98.8%,suggesting that finer models are unnecessary with such macroscopic data.The fitting is used to extract estimates of the doubling time in the ascending phase of the epidemic,the mean recovery time and,for those who require medical intervention,the mean hospitalization time.Large variations can be observed among different outbreaks.
