A large number of papers have been published and great efforts have been made in the recent 20 years by the Chinese oceanographic and meteorological scientists in the ocean-atmosphere interaction studies. The present ...A large number of papers have been published and great efforts have been made in the recent 20 years by the Chinese oceanographic and meteorological scientists in the ocean-atmosphere interaction studies. The present paper is an overview of the major achievements made by Chinese scientists aad their collaborators in studies of larger scale ocean-atmosphere interaction in the following oceans: the South China Sea, the Tropical Pacific, the indian Ocean and the North Pacific. Many interesting phenomena and dynamic mechanisms have been discovered and studied in these papers. These achievements have improved our understanding of climate variability and have great implications in climate prediction, and thus are highly relevant to the ongoing international Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) efforts.展开更多
Soliton theory plays an important role in nonlinear physics.The elastic interaction among solitons is oneof the most important properties for integrable systems.In this Letter, an elastic vortex interaction model is p...Soliton theory plays an important role in nonlinear physics.The elastic interaction among solitons is oneof the most important properties for integrable systems.In this Letter, an elastic vortex interaction model is proposed.It is found that the momenta, vortex momenta and the energies of every one vortex and the interaction energies of everytwo vortices are conserved.展开更多
A stratus-sea fog event that occurred over the Yellow and East China Seas on 3 June 2011 is investigated using observations and a numerical model, with a focus on the effects of background circulation and Sea Surface ...A stratus-sea fog event that occurred over the Yellow and East China Seas on 3 June 2011 is investigated using observations and a numerical model, with a focus on the effects of background circulation and Sea Surface Temperature Front (SSTF) on the transition of stratus into sea fog. Southerly winds of a synoptic high-pressure circulation transport water vapor to the Yellow Sea, creating conditions favorable for sea fog/stratus formation. The subsidence from the high-pressure contributes to the temperature inversion at the top of the stratus. The SSTF forces a secondary circulation within the ABL (Atmospheric Boundary Layer), the sinking branch of which on the cold flank of SSTF helps lower the stratus layer fiLrther to reach the sea surface. The cooling effect over the cold sea surface counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by subsidence. The secondary circulation becomes weak and the fog patches are shrtmk heavily with the smoothed SSTE A conceptual model is proposed for the transition of stratus into sea fog over the Yellow and East China Seas. Finally, the analyses suggest that sea fog frequency will probably decrease due to the weakened SSTF and the reduced subsidence of secondary circulation under global wanning.展开更多
Using monthly mean atmospheric re- analysis data and oceanic assimilation data product,the winter ocean-atmosphere interaction in middle and high latitude in Northwest Pacific was studied. Key regions were chosen to s...Using monthly mean atmospheric re- analysis data and oceanic assimilation data product,the winter ocean-atmosphere interaction in middle and high latitude in Northwest Pacific was studied. Key regions were chosen to study the variations of Aleutian Low,the 500hPa westerly,the meriodional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient with three indices defined as Aleutian Low index,zonal index and meridional SST gradient between Kuroshio- influenced region and Oyashio-influenced region. The results show that when there is a deeper Aleu- tian Low accompanied by a stronger northerly wind in the western part of the Aleutian Low,the subpolar gyre of North Pacific is strengthened,the SST in the Oyashio-influenced region is decreased and the me- ridional SST gradient between Kuroshio-influ- enced region and Oyashio-influenced region is increased,which,in turn,will enhance the westerly jet in the upper troposphere due to thermal-wind relation. The strengthened westerly jet makes a favorable condi- tion for the deeper Aleutian Low over North Pacific beneath the left part of the jet exit region. Conse- quently,a positive feedback forms there.展开更多
Various satellite data,JRA-25(Japan reanalysis of 25 years) reanalyzed data and WRF(Weather Research Forecast) model are used to investigate the in situ effect of the ESKF(East China Sea Kuroshio Front) on the MABL(ma...Various satellite data,JRA-25(Japan reanalysis of 25 years) reanalyzed data and WRF(Weather Research Forecast) model are used to investigate the in situ effect of the ESKF(East China Sea Kuroshio Front) on the MABL(marine atmospheric boundary layer).The intensity of the ESKF is most robust from January to April in its annual cycle.The local strong surface northerly/northeasterly winds are observed right over the ESKF in January and in April and the wind speeds decrease upward in the MABL.The thermal wind effect that is derived from the baroclinic MABL forced by the strong SST gradient contributes to the strong surface winds to a large degree.The convergence zone existing along the warm flank of the ESKF is stronger in April than in January corresponding to the steeper SST(sea surface temperature) gradient.The collocations of the cloud cover maximum and precipitation maximum are basically consistent with the convergence zone of the wind field.The clouds develop higher(lower) in the warm(cold) flank of the ESKF due to the less(more) stable stratification in the MABL.The lowest clouds are observed in April on the cold flank of the ESKF and over the Yellow Sea due to the existence of the pronounced temperature inversion.The numerical experiments with smoothed SST are consistent with the results from the ovservations.展开更多
The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO; 14 97-day ocean was studied based on Argo observations periods) of temperature in the upper 2000 m of the global from 20052008. It is shown that near the surface the ISO existed m...The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO; 14 97-day ocean was studied based on Argo observations periods) of temperature in the upper 2000 m of the global from 20052008. It is shown that near the surface the ISO existed mainly in a band east of 60°E, between 10°S and 10°N, and the region around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). At other levels analyzed, the ISOs also existed in the regions of the Kuroshio, the Gulf Stream, the Indonesian throughflow, the Somalia current, and the subtropical eountercurrent (STCC) of the North Pacific. The intraseasonal signals can be seen even at depths of about 2000 m in some regions of the global ocean. The largest amplitude of ISO appeared at the thermocline of the equatorial Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean, with maximum standard deviation (STD) exceeding 1.2°C. The ACC, the Kuroshio, and the Gulf Stream regions all exhibited large STD for all levels analyzed. Especially at 1000 m, the largest STD appeared in the south and southeast of South Africa a part of the ACC, with a maximum value that reached 0.5°C. The ratios of the intraseasonal temperature variance to the total variance at 1000 m and at the equator indicated that, in a considerable part of the global deep ocean, the ISO was dominant in the variations of temperature, since such a ratio exceeded even 50% there. A case study also confirmed the existence of the ISO in the deep ocean. These results provide useful information for the design of field observations in the global ocean. Analysis and discussion are also given for the mechanism of the ISO.展开更多
Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1959-2004, the location and strength of the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone), as well as their relations with typhoons in the northwestern Pacific were studied. It w...Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1959-2004, the location and strength of the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone), as well as their relations with typhoons in the northwestern Pacific were studied. It was found that the pentad location and strength of the ITCZ had close relations with the typhoon frequency. Higher latitude location or strengthened ITCZ were found to be favorable for the occurrence of typhoons over the Northwestern Pacific. An index was defined for ascertaining the location of the ITCZ. It was found that the index defined with the maximum value of pentad and monthly meridional shear of zonal wind speed could better describe the location of ITCZ than another index defined with the maximum value of convergence. Correlation analysis between the index of ITCZ and the maximum cloud cover in the tropics showed that there were close relations between the ITCZ determined by the index and the maximum tropical cloud belt. The strength index of an ITCZ was defined as the zonal wind speed difference at latitudes south and north of the ITCZ. It was found that there are close relations between the ITCZ intensity and typhoon occurrence in the South China Sea [10°N-20°N, 100°E-120°E] and regions east of the Philippines and near the Mariana Islands[5°N-20°N, 127.5°-150°E].展开更多
By using a new heat budget equation that is closely related to the sea surface temperature (SST) and a dataset from an ocean general circulation model (MOM2) with 10-a integration (1987-1996), the relative importance ...By using a new heat budget equation that is closely related to the sea surface temperature (SST) and a dataset from an ocean general circulation model (MOM2) with 10-a integration (1987-1996), the relative importance of various processes determining SST variations in two regions of the Indian Ocean is compared. These regions are defined by the Indian Ocean Dipole Index and will be referred to hereafter as the eastern (0°-10°S, 90°-110°E) and western regions (10°S-10°N, 50°-70°E), respectively. It is shown that in each region there is a falling of SST in boreal summer and a rising in most months of other seasons, but the phases are quite different. In the eastern region, maximum cooling rate occurs in July,whereas in the western region it occurs in June with much larger magnitude. Maximum heating rate occurs in November in the eastern region, but in March in the western one. The western region exhibits another peak of increasing rate of SST in October, indicating a typical half-year period. Net surface heat flux and entrainment show roughly the same phases as the time-varying term, but the former has much larger contribution in most of a year, whereas the latter is important in the boreal summer. Horizontal advection, however, shows completely different seasonal variations as compared with any other terms in the heat budget equation. In the eastern region, it has a maximum in June/November and a minimum in March/September, manifesting a half-year period; in the western region, it reaches the maximum in August and the minimum in November. Further investigation of the horizontal advection indicates that the zonal advection has almost the opposite sign to the meridional advection. In the eastern region, the zonal advection is negative with a peak in August, whereas the meridional one is positive with two peaks in June and October. In the western region, the zonal advection is negative from March to November with two peaks in June and November, whereas the meridional one is positive with one peak in July.Different phases can be clearly seen between the two regions for each component of the horizontal advection. A detailed analysis of the data of 1994, a year identified when the Indian Ocean dipole event happened, indicates that the horizontal advection plays a dominant role in the remarkable cooling of the eastern region, in which zonal and meridional advections have the same sign of anomaly. However, in the western region in 1994 no any specialty was shown as compared with other years, for the SST anomaly is not positive in large part of this region. All these imply that the eastern and western regions may be related in a quite complex way and have many differences in dynamics. Further study is needed.展开更多
Based on an analysis of drifter data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment during 1979-1998, the sizes of the eddies in the North subtropical Pacific are determined from the radii of curvature of the drifter pat...Based on an analysis of drifter data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment during 1979-1998, the sizes of the eddies in the North subtropical Pacific are determined from the radii of curvature of the drifter paths calculated by using a non-linear curve fitting method. To support the drifter data results, Sea Surface Height from the TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS2 satellite data are analyzed in connection with the drifter paths. It is found that the eddies in the North Pacific (18°-23°N and 125°-150°E) move westward at an average speed of approximately 0.098 ms-1 and their average radius is 176 km,with radii ranging from 98 km to 298 km. During the nineteen-year period, only 4 out of approximately 200 drifters (2%)actually entered the South China Sea from the area adjacent to the Luzon Strait (18°-22°N and 121°-125°E) in the winter. It is also found that eddies from the interior of the North Pacific are unlikely to enter the South China Sea through the Luzon Strait.展开更多
In order to test the validity of the global wavelet spectrum - a new period analysis method based on wavelet analysis, we carried out some simple experiments. In our experiments we used idealized time series and real ...In order to test the validity of the global wavelet spectrum - a new period analysis method based on wavelet analysis, we carried out some simple experiments. In our experiments we used idealized time series and real Nifio 3 sea surface temperature (SST) for testing purposes. First we combined different signals which have the same power but different periods into some new time series. Then we calculated the global wavelet spectra and Fourier power spectra for the testing time series. The testing results revealed that on some occasions the global wavelet spectrum tends to amplify the relative power of longer periods. By making comparisons with the results obtained by the traditional Fourier power spectrum, we demonstrated that on an occasion when the global wavelet spectrum does not work the Fourier power spectrum can be used to achieve the right results. Hence it is recommended that when making period analysis with the global wavelet spectrum one needs to do further tests to confirm their results.展开更多
The role of halted "baroclinic modes" in the central equatorial Pacific is analyzed. It is found that dominant anomaly signals corresponding to "baroclinic modes" occur in the upper layer of the equatorial Pacific...The role of halted "baroclinic modes" in the central equatorial Pacific is analyzed. It is found that dominant anomaly signals corresponding to "baroclinic modes" occur in the upper layer of the equatorial Pacific, in a two-and-a-half layer oceanic model, in assimilated results of a simple OGCM and in the ADCP observation of TAO. A second "baroclinic mode" is halted in the central equatorial Pacific corresponding to a positive SST anomaly while the first "baroclinic mode" propagates eastwards in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The role of the halted second "baroclinic mode" in the central equatorial Pacific is explained by a staged ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanism in the formation of El Nifio: the westerly bursts in boreal winter over the western equatorial Pacific generate the halted second "baroclinic mode" in the central equatorial Pacific, leading to the increase of heat content and temperature in the upper layer of the central Pacific which induces the shift of convection from over the western equatorial Pacific to the central equatorial Pacific; another wider, westerly anomaly burst is induced over the western region of convection above the central equatorial Pacific and the westerly anomaly burst generates the first "baroclinic mode" propagating to the eastern equatorial Pacific, resulting in a warm event in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The mechanism presented in this paper reveals that the central equatorial Pacific is a key region in detecting the possibility of ENSO and, by analyzing TAO observation data of ocean currents and temperature in the central equatorial Pacific, in predicting the coming of an El Nino several months ahead.展开更多
基金the Natioual Natural Science Foundation of China Grant No. 40333030 , 40233033.
文摘A large number of papers have been published and great efforts have been made in the recent 20 years by the Chinese oceanographic and meteorological scientists in the ocean-atmosphere interaction studies. The present paper is an overview of the major achievements made by Chinese scientists aad their collaborators in studies of larger scale ocean-atmosphere interaction in the following oceans: the South China Sea, the Tropical Pacific, the indian Ocean and the North Pacific. Many interesting phenomena and dynamic mechanisms have been discovered and studied in these papers. These achievements have improved our understanding of climate variability and have great implications in climate prediction, and thus are highly relevant to the ongoing international Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) efforts.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.10735030 the National Basic Research Programs of China (973 Programs) under Grant Nos.2007CB814800 and 2005CB422301the PCSIRT (IRT0734)
文摘Soliton theory plays an important role in nonlinear physics.The elastic interaction among solitons is oneof the most important properties for integrable systems.In this Letter, an elastic vortex interaction model is proposed.It is found that the momenta, vortex momenta and the energies of every one vortex and the interaction energies of everytwo vortices are conserved.
文摘A stratus-sea fog event that occurred over the Yellow and East China Seas on 3 June 2011 is investigated using observations and a numerical model, with a focus on the effects of background circulation and Sea Surface Temperature Front (SSTF) on the transition of stratus into sea fog. Southerly winds of a synoptic high-pressure circulation transport water vapor to the Yellow Sea, creating conditions favorable for sea fog/stratus formation. The subsidence from the high-pressure contributes to the temperature inversion at the top of the stratus. The SSTF forces a secondary circulation within the ABL (Atmospheric Boundary Layer), the sinking branch of which on the cold flank of SSTF helps lower the stratus layer fiLrther to reach the sea surface. The cooling effect over the cold sea surface counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by subsidence. The secondary circulation becomes weak and the fog patches are shrtmk heavily with the smoothed SSTE A conceptual model is proposed for the transition of stratus into sea fog over the Yellow and East China Seas. Finally, the analyses suggest that sea fog frequency will probably decrease due to the weakened SSTF and the reduced subsidence of secondary circulation under global wanning.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40136010) National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2005CB422301 ).
文摘Using monthly mean atmospheric re- analysis data and oceanic assimilation data product,the winter ocean-atmosphere interaction in middle and high latitude in Northwest Pacific was studied. Key regions were chosen to study the variations of Aleutian Low,the 500hPa westerly,the meriodional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient with three indices defined as Aleutian Low index,zonal index and meridional SST gradient between Kuroshio- influenced region and Oyashio-influenced region. The results show that when there is a deeper Aleu- tian Low accompanied by a stronger northerly wind in the western part of the Aleutian Low,the subpolar gyre of North Pacific is strengthened,the SST in the Oyashio-influenced region is decreased and the me- ridional SST gradient between Kuroshio-influ- enced region and Oyashio-influenced region is increased,which,in turn,will enhance the westerly jet in the upper troposphere due to thermal-wind relation. The strengthened westerly jet makes a favorable condi- tion for the deeper Aleutian Low over North Pacific beneath the left part of the jet exit region. Conse- quently,a positive feedback forms there.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40975003)the Ph.D.Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (No.20090132110008)GYHY(QX)2007-6-31
文摘Various satellite data,JRA-25(Japan reanalysis of 25 years) reanalyzed data and WRF(Weather Research Forecast) model are used to investigate the in situ effect of the ESKF(East China Sea Kuroshio Front) on the MABL(marine atmospheric boundary layer).The intensity of the ESKF is most robust from January to April in its annual cycle.The local strong surface northerly/northeasterly winds are observed right over the ESKF in January and in April and the wind speeds decrease upward in the MABL.The thermal wind effect that is derived from the baroclinic MABL forced by the strong SST gradient contributes to the strong surface winds to a large degree.The convergence zone existing along the warm flank of the ESKF is stronger in April than in January corresponding to the steeper SST(sea surface temperature) gradient.The collocations of the cloud cover maximum and precipitation maximum are basically consistent with the convergence zone of the wind field.The clouds develop higher(lower) in the warm(cold) flank of the ESKF due to the less(more) stable stratification in the MABL.The lowest clouds are observed in April on the cold flank of the ESKF and over the Yellow Sea due to the existence of the pronounced temperature inversion.The numerical experiments with smoothed SST are consistent with the results from the ovservations.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2007CB816004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41076004,40830106 and 40921004)
文摘The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO; 14 97-day ocean was studied based on Argo observations periods) of temperature in the upper 2000 m of the global from 20052008. It is shown that near the surface the ISO existed mainly in a band east of 60°E, between 10°S and 10°N, and the region around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). At other levels analyzed, the ISOs also existed in the regions of the Kuroshio, the Gulf Stream, the Indonesian throughflow, the Somalia current, and the subtropical eountercurrent (STCC) of the North Pacific. The intraseasonal signals can be seen even at depths of about 2000 m in some regions of the global ocean. The largest amplitude of ISO appeared at the thermocline of the equatorial Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean, with maximum standard deviation (STD) exceeding 1.2°C. The ACC, the Kuroshio, and the Gulf Stream regions all exhibited large STD for all levels analyzed. Especially at 1000 m, the largest STD appeared in the south and southeast of South Africa a part of the ACC, with a maximum value that reached 0.5°C. The ratios of the intraseasonal temperature variance to the total variance at 1000 m and at the equator indicated that, in a considerable part of the global deep ocean, the ISO was dominant in the variations of temperature, since such a ratio exceeded even 50% there. A case study also confirmed the existence of the ISO in the deep ocean. These results provide useful information for the design of field observations in the global ocean. Analysis and discussion are also given for the mechanism of the ISO.
基金support from the Institute of Typhoon,Shanghai,and the National Natural Science Foundation(40676012)
文摘Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1959-2004, the location and strength of the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone), as well as their relations with typhoons in the northwestern Pacific were studied. It was found that the pentad location and strength of the ITCZ had close relations with the typhoon frequency. Higher latitude location or strengthened ITCZ were found to be favorable for the occurrence of typhoons over the Northwestern Pacific. An index was defined for ascertaining the location of the ITCZ. It was found that the index defined with the maximum value of pentad and monthly meridional shear of zonal wind speed could better describe the location of ITCZ than another index defined with the maximum value of convergence. Correlation analysis between the index of ITCZ and the maximum cloud cover in the tropics showed that there were close relations between the ITCZ determined by the index and the maximum tropical cloud belt. The strength index of an ITCZ was defined as the zonal wind speed difference at latitudes south and north of the ITCZ. It was found that there are close relations between the ITCZ intensity and typhoon occurrence in the South China Sea [10°N-20°N, 100°E-120°E] and regions east of the Philippines and near the Mariana Islands[5°N-20°N, 127.5°-150°E].
基金This study was supported by programs from National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Nos.40233033 and 40576006).
文摘By using a new heat budget equation that is closely related to the sea surface temperature (SST) and a dataset from an ocean general circulation model (MOM2) with 10-a integration (1987-1996), the relative importance of various processes determining SST variations in two regions of the Indian Ocean is compared. These regions are defined by the Indian Ocean Dipole Index and will be referred to hereafter as the eastern (0°-10°S, 90°-110°E) and western regions (10°S-10°N, 50°-70°E), respectively. It is shown that in each region there is a falling of SST in boreal summer and a rising in most months of other seasons, but the phases are quite different. In the eastern region, maximum cooling rate occurs in July,whereas in the western region it occurs in June with much larger magnitude. Maximum heating rate occurs in November in the eastern region, but in March in the western one. The western region exhibits another peak of increasing rate of SST in October, indicating a typical half-year period. Net surface heat flux and entrainment show roughly the same phases as the time-varying term, but the former has much larger contribution in most of a year, whereas the latter is important in the boreal summer. Horizontal advection, however, shows completely different seasonal variations as compared with any other terms in the heat budget equation. In the eastern region, it has a maximum in June/November and a minimum in March/September, manifesting a half-year period; in the western region, it reaches the maximum in August and the minimum in November. Further investigation of the horizontal advection indicates that the zonal advection has almost the opposite sign to the meridional advection. In the eastern region, the zonal advection is negative with a peak in August, whereas the meridional one is positive with two peaks in June and October. In the western region, the zonal advection is negative from March to November with two peaks in June and November, whereas the meridional one is positive with one peak in July.Different phases can be clearly seen between the two regions for each component of the horizontal advection. A detailed analysis of the data of 1994, a year identified when the Indian Ocean dipole event happened, indicates that the horizontal advection plays a dominant role in the remarkable cooling of the eastern region, in which zonal and meridional advections have the same sign of anomaly. However, in the western region in 1994 no any specialty was shown as compared with other years, for the SST anomaly is not positive in large part of this region. All these imply that the eastern and western regions may be related in a quite complex way and have many differences in dynamics. Further study is needed.
基金This work is supported by Chinese NSFC(No.40333030) was part of the Research Experience for Undergraduates in Marine Science and Environmental Engineering in China funded by the U.S.National Science Foundation.
文摘Based on an analysis of drifter data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment during 1979-1998, the sizes of the eddies in the North subtropical Pacific are determined from the radii of curvature of the drifter paths calculated by using a non-linear curve fitting method. To support the drifter data results, Sea Surface Height from the TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS2 satellite data are analyzed in connection with the drifter paths. It is found that the eddies in the North Pacific (18°-23°N and 125°-150°E) move westward at an average speed of approximately 0.098 ms-1 and their average radius is 176 km,with radii ranging from 98 km to 298 km. During the nineteen-year period, only 4 out of approximately 200 drifters (2%)actually entered the South China Sea from the area adjacent to the Luzon Strait (18°-22°N and 121°-125°E) in the winter. It is also found that eddies from the interior of the North Pacific are unlikely to enter the South China Sea through the Luzon Strait.
基金This study was suppo rted by a key program from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant No.40233033).
文摘In order to test the validity of the global wavelet spectrum - a new period analysis method based on wavelet analysis, we carried out some simple experiments. In our experiments we used idealized time series and real Nifio 3 sea surface temperature (SST) for testing purposes. First we combined different signals which have the same power but different periods into some new time series. Then we calculated the global wavelet spectra and Fourier power spectra for the testing time series. The testing results revealed that on some occasions the global wavelet spectrum tends to amplify the relative power of longer periods. By making comparisons with the results obtained by the traditional Fourier power spectrum, we demonstrated that on an occasion when the global wavelet spectrum does not work the Fourier power spectrum can be used to achieve the right results. Hence it is recommended that when making period analysis with the global wavelet spectrum one needs to do further tests to confirm their results.
基金We want, to express our gratitude for support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40136010) and the Education Ministry of China.
文摘The role of halted "baroclinic modes" in the central equatorial Pacific is analyzed. It is found that dominant anomaly signals corresponding to "baroclinic modes" occur in the upper layer of the equatorial Pacific, in a two-and-a-half layer oceanic model, in assimilated results of a simple OGCM and in the ADCP observation of TAO. A second "baroclinic mode" is halted in the central equatorial Pacific corresponding to a positive SST anomaly while the first "baroclinic mode" propagates eastwards in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The role of the halted second "baroclinic mode" in the central equatorial Pacific is explained by a staged ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanism in the formation of El Nifio: the westerly bursts in boreal winter over the western equatorial Pacific generate the halted second "baroclinic mode" in the central equatorial Pacific, leading to the increase of heat content and temperature in the upper layer of the central Pacific which induces the shift of convection from over the western equatorial Pacific to the central equatorial Pacific; another wider, westerly anomaly burst is induced over the western region of convection above the central equatorial Pacific and the westerly anomaly burst generates the first "baroclinic mode" propagating to the eastern equatorial Pacific, resulting in a warm event in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The mechanism presented in this paper reveals that the central equatorial Pacific is a key region in detecting the possibility of ENSO and, by analyzing TAO observation data of ocean currents and temperature in the central equatorial Pacific, in predicting the coming of an El Nino several months ahead.