This paper aims to assess the Initial Investment Valuation Methodology of the local regulator, facing the results of auctions, due to the high occurrence of low clearing prices observed from 2003 to 2008 and the high ...This paper aims to assess the Initial Investment Valuation Methodology of the local regulator, facing the results of auctions, due to the high occurrence of low clearing prices observed from 2003 to 2008 and the high percentage of auctions without any bidder recently. The regulator investment forecasted defines the maximum value of Yearly Allowed Revenue and the bidder that offers the lowest YAR value wins the auction. The first type of analysis considers project cost, location, execution deadline, transmission line extension and type of all actions from 1999 to 2015, totalling about 3.361 billion USD. It was not found any correlation of those variables and the result of the actions. The second analysis compared the equipment and the additional costs breakdown of the regulator investment forecast with the real investment in projects from 2009 to 2013 and it rarely surpasses 5%. Suggestions are proposed based on the analysis.展开更多
The need for renewable energy sources has challenged most countries to comply with environmental protection actions and to handle climate change.Solar energy figures as a natural option,despite its intermittence.Brazi...The need for renewable energy sources has challenged most countries to comply with environmental protection actions and to handle climate change.Solar energy figures as a natural option,despite its intermittence.Brazil has a green energy matrix with significant expansion of solar form in recent years.To preserve the Amazon basin,the use of solar energy can help communities and cities improve their living standards without new hydroelectric units or even to burn biomass,avoiding harsh environmental consequences.The novelty of this work is using data science with machine-learning tools to predict the solar incidence(W.h/m^(2))in four cities in Amazonas state(north-west Brazil),using data from NASA satellites within the period of 2013-22.Decision-tree-based models and vector autoregressive(time-series)models were used with three time aggregations:day,week and month.The predictor model can aid in the economic assessment of solar energy in the Amazon basin and the use of satellite data was encouraged by the lack of data from ground stations.The mean absolute error was selected as the output indicator,with the lowest values obtained close to 0.20,from the adaptive boosting and light gradient boosting algorithms,in the same order of magnitude of similar references.展开更多
文摘This paper aims to assess the Initial Investment Valuation Methodology of the local regulator, facing the results of auctions, due to the high occurrence of low clearing prices observed from 2003 to 2008 and the high percentage of auctions without any bidder recently. The regulator investment forecasted defines the maximum value of Yearly Allowed Revenue and the bidder that offers the lowest YAR value wins the auction. The first type of analysis considers project cost, location, execution deadline, transmission line extension and type of all actions from 1999 to 2015, totalling about 3.361 billion USD. It was not found any correlation of those variables and the result of the actions. The second analysis compared the equipment and the additional costs breakdown of the regulator investment forecast with the real investment in projects from 2009 to 2013 and it rarely surpasses 5%. Suggestions are proposed based on the analysis.
基金The authors acknowledge the support of the Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Innovation(RCGI),hosted by University of Sao Paulo(USP)and sponsored by FAPESP(grants#2014/50279-4 and#2020/15230-5,#2022/07974-0)Shell Brasil,and the strategic importance of the support given by Brazil’s National Oil,Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency(ANP)through the R&D levy regulation.Equally importantly,Felipe Almeida is sponsored by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development(CNPq),grant#140253/2021-1.
文摘The need for renewable energy sources has challenged most countries to comply with environmental protection actions and to handle climate change.Solar energy figures as a natural option,despite its intermittence.Brazil has a green energy matrix with significant expansion of solar form in recent years.To preserve the Amazon basin,the use of solar energy can help communities and cities improve their living standards without new hydroelectric units or even to burn biomass,avoiding harsh environmental consequences.The novelty of this work is using data science with machine-learning tools to predict the solar incidence(W.h/m^(2))in four cities in Amazonas state(north-west Brazil),using data from NASA satellites within the period of 2013-22.Decision-tree-based models and vector autoregressive(time-series)models were used with three time aggregations:day,week and month.The predictor model can aid in the economic assessment of solar energy in the Amazon basin and the use of satellite data was encouraged by the lack of data from ground stations.The mean absolute error was selected as the output indicator,with the lowest values obtained close to 0.20,from the adaptive boosting and light gradient boosting algorithms,in the same order of magnitude of similar references.
