Reform and opening up has made China’s economy develop faster than ever. But it has not succeeded in changing the regional disparity in China. In this article, we establish a model factor input called the "lock-...Reform and opening up has made China’s economy develop faster than ever. But it has not succeeded in changing the regional disparity in China. In this article, we establish a model factor input called the "lock-in effect" and analyze the channel of the lock-in effect and how it influences the regional economy. On the analyses of thirty provinces’ panel data in China from 1990 to 2005, we find that the lock-in effect of factor inputs further exacerbates the developmental imbalance among regions.展开更多
Friedman＇s plucking model of business fluctuations suggests that output cannot exceed an upper limit, but it is occasionally ＂plucked＂ downward below trends as a result of economic recessions. This paper investigat...Friedman＇s plucking model of business fluctuations suggests that output cannot exceed an upper limit, but it is occasionally ＂plucked＂ downward below trends as a result of economic recessions. This paper investigates China＇s business fluetuations using quarterly real GDP data for the period 1978 2009. Our results show some evidence supporting Friedman＇s plucking model. We find that a ceiling effect of real output exists, and that negative asymmetric shocks significantly affect the transitory component, which captures the plucking downward behavior during the recession. The results also suggest that the basic asymmetric unobserved component model is not appropriate for directly modeling China＇s real output because the business＂ cycle is inaccurately measured, but it works quite well when considering a structural break in the second quarter of 1992. The results reveal that although China＇s economy strengthened in the second quarter of 2009, it is essential for China＇s government to take further positive and effective measures to maintain sustainable development of the economy.展开更多
文摘Reform and opening up has made China’s economy develop faster than ever. But it has not succeeded in changing the regional disparity in China. In this article, we establish a model factor input called the "lock-in effect" and analyze the channel of the lock-in effect and how it influences the regional economy. On the analyses of thirty provinces’ panel data in China from 1990 to 2005, we find that the lock-in effect of factor inputs further exacerbates the developmental imbalance among regions.
文摘Friedman＇s plucking model of business fluctuations suggests that output cannot exceed an upper limit, but it is occasionally ＂plucked＂ downward below trends as a result of economic recessions. This paper investigates China＇s business fluetuations using quarterly real GDP data for the period 1978 2009. Our results show some evidence supporting Friedman＇s plucking model. We find that a ceiling effect of real output exists, and that negative asymmetric shocks significantly affect the transitory component, which captures the plucking downward behavior during the recession. The results also suggest that the basic asymmetric unobserved component model is not appropriate for directly modeling China＇s real output because the business＂ cycle is inaccurately measured, but it works quite well when considering a structural break in the second quarter of 1992. The results reveal that although China＇s economy strengthened in the second quarter of 2009, it is essential for China＇s government to take further positive and effective measures to maintain sustainable development of the economy.
