Simulation based on a modified social force model for sensitivity to emergency signs in subway station

The subway is the primary travel tool for urban residents in China. Due to the complex structure of the subway and high personnel density in rush hours, subway evacuation capacity is critical. The subway evacuation model is explored in this work by combining the improved social force model with the view radius using the Vicsek model. The pedestrians are divided into two categories based on different force models. The first category is sensitive pedestrians who have normal responses to emergency signs. The second category is insensitive pedestrians. By simulating different proportions of the insensitive pedestrians, we find that the escape time is directly proportional to the number of insensitive pedestrians and inversely proportional to the view radius. However, when the view radius is large enough, the escape time does not change significantly, and the evacuation of people in a small view radius environment tends to be integrated. With the improvement of view radius conditions, the escape time changes more obviously with the proportion of insensitive pedestrians. A new emergency sign layout is proposed, and the simulations show that the proposed layout can effectively reduce the escape time in a small view radius environment. However, the evacuation effect of the new escape sign layout on the large view radius environment is not apparent. In this case, the exit setting emerges as an additional factor affecting the escape time.

The Effect of Intellectual Capital on Organizational Performance: The Mediating Role of Knowledge Sharing

Understanding the various effects that exist among intellectual capital, knowledge sharing, and organizational performance is the main purpose of this study. Data were gathered from 356 employees working in manufacturing companies in Jordan. In order to test the hypotheses of this study, the approach suggested by [1] was undertaken. The results of the analysis revealed that intellectual capital had a positive effect on organizational performance and knowledge sharing. The results also showed that knowledge sharing had a positive effect on organizational performance. Finally, it was found that knowledge sharing had a positive mediating effect on the relationship between intellectual capital and organizational performance. The findings of this study thus provide many benefits for researchers and practitioners despite the presence of some limitations.

Research on Communication Mechanism and Effect of Social E-Commerce in China

With the popularization of the Internet and the change of residents' consumption concept, e-commerce brings convenience to people's life and work, and network consumption has become a mainstream consumption mode. With the continuous expansion of e-commerce business, social network has become the main mode of Internet economic development with a rapid trend. Social network has abundant customer resources, which continuously influences people's life and work style. The advent of network economy era has an important impact on the development of global e-commerce industry. As a product of the development of the network economy era, electronic commerce, with its unique advantages, has played a decisive role in the form of global economic growth and commodity trading mode. In this paper, through the perspective of social network, the domestic e-commerce industry was actively explored, hoping to provide a theoretical reference for the rapid development of related industries in China.

Factors Affecting the Intention of Adopting Cloud Computing in Jordanian Hospitals

The purpose of this study is to examine the different factors that are expected to influence the intention of hospitals to adopt cloud computing in Jordan. This study is conducted using quatititative methodology. 223 questionnaires were distributed to the IT departments of different hospitals to evaluate their ability and willingness to adopt cloud computing. The data were tested using multiple regression in order to determine whether Technology, Organizational, and Environmental factors (TOE) played a role in hospitals’ decision to consider cloud computing as a beneficial investment. The findings of this study showed that all the factors had a significant positive impact on the intention of hospitals to adopt cloud computing, with the Technological factor having the most impact on the decision made.

Health Status and Earnings of Migrant Workers from Rural China

The migration of rural laborers into cities for employment has been one of the main driving forces of China＇s economic growth over the past three decades. Based on a dataset collected by the Ministry of Agriculture of China from 2003 to 2007, this paper examines the impact of health on the earnings of migrant workers engaging in physically-intensive work requiring good health. Our findings indicate that a poor health status not only weakens the incentive of rural laborers to participate in the migrant labor force but also significantly reduces their earnings. A migrant worker in poor health only earns 67percent of what a healthy worker makes. Among all the human capital characteristics and family economic factors, health status is the most influential on earnings for less educated workers. Labor productivity has a greater impact on earnings than the annual number of days that aperson works. Ongoing health-care reforms aimed at the improvement of the health-care services available to rural laborers are urged to help reduce poverty in rural China.

“同一认定”中的意见决策论

纵观法庭科学和其相关学科分支,学术研究人员和司法鉴定实践者对"同一认定"概念的理解存在着不同程度的偏离,其主张为"可以从潜在的一组来源中确定唯一的来源"。特别是近年来,在"同一认定"作为一种鉴定意见的实践发展进程中,关于"同一认定"的理解和认识仍停留在原有阶段,实践中基本没有实质性的改变[]1。更重要的是,专业协会和司法鉴定实践者舍弃了正式的意见决策论的概念来界定"同一认定"的本质,主要的难题是我们难以把握鉴定意见结果可取还是不可取的衡量尺度(如,利用效用函数)。在该领域现有的研究基础上,本论文引入并介绍了效用函数及损失函数的基本概念,同时特别提及他们在司法鉴定同一认定领域中的应用。本文强调,正确地理解同一认定意见决策工具,不仅可以减少"个人的"主观影响,而且还展示了如何将该理论与现实中的意见判断问题的构成特点联系起来。

The effect of geometric layout of exit on escape mechanism of crowd

In dense crowd evacuation,especially in emergencies such as fires,the safe evacuation of large public facilities will face major challenges.At the same time,as cluster congestion tends to occur in the space where the flow rate drops sharply,the superposition of fire incidents and bottleneck areas can easily evolve into malignant disasters and crowd stampedes with serious harm and influence.In this paper,Massmotion based on social force model is used to carry out a numerical simulation on exit position and corner exit form to find out the mechanism and influence law of the slight architectural adjustment on the flow at bottleneck.The results show that the traditional middle exit design is not the best,and the evacuation efficiency of the corner exit is higher than that of the middle exit.Compared with other corner exits,the average time interval between two adjacent persons passing through the bottleneck under the 30°corner exit is the shortest,and the probability of outlet clogging drops the fastest,exceeding 18%of the slowest descending speed.At the 0°corner exit,the waiting time cost of pedestrians is high and the risk of evacuation is high.The outcomes of this work can provide reference for the structural design of the building and the safe evacuation of personnel,so as to improve the evacuation efficiency and safety of pedestrians in the building to some extent.

我国行政法与WTO协定的一致化(英文)

本文以中国 2001 年以来法制发展为依据,阐述了中国在国内法律、行政规定和行政程序与世界贸易组织协定一致化进程中,制度构建、行政实施和司法审查诸方面的行政法问题。其中,保护世界贸易组织成员方贸易商的跨境贸易自由权,是作为传统国内公法部门的行政法接受世界贸易组织国际自由贸易规则的基础,也是经济全球化时代行政法的基本功能之一和行政法制度变迁的重心所在。尤其是行政机关对境内国际服务贸易和对进口货物的再生产和销售活动的后边境管理,是国内行政法与国际自由贸易规则高度结合并受到极大改造的领域。世界贸易组织协定能够对中国国内法行政法产生重大影响的基本原因,在于接受世界贸易组织规则是中国对外开放和改革经济制度的组成部分,基于市场体制的经济自主权和国际贸易权成为国内行政法的正当性基础。

The Role of the Subjectivist Position in the Probabilization of Forensic Science

This paper is concerned with the contribution of forensic science to the legal process by helping reduce uncertainty.Although it is now widely accepted that uncertainty should be handled by probability because it is a safeguard against incoherent proceedings,there remain diverging and conflicting views on how probability ought to be interpreted.This is exemplified by the proposals in scientific literature that call for procedures of probability computation that are referred to as"objective,"suggesting that scientists ought to use them in their reporting to recipients of expert information.I find such proposals objectionable.They need to be viewed cautiously,essentially because ensuing probabilistic statements can be perceived as making forensic science prescriptive.A motivating example from the context of forensic DNA analysis will be chosen to illustrate this.As a main point,it shall be argued that such constraining suggestions can be avoided by interpreting probability as a measure of personal belief,that is,subjective probability.Invoking references to foundational literature from mathematical statistics and philosophy of science,the discussion will explore the consequences of this interdisciplinary viewpoint for the practice of forensic expert reporting.It will be emphasized that-as an operational interpretation of probability_the subjectivist perspective enables forensic science to add value to the legal process,in particular by avoiding inferential impasses to which other interpretations of probability may lead.Moreover,understanding probability from a subjective perspective can encourage participants in the legal process to take on more responsibility in matters regarding the coherent handling of uncertainty.This would assure more balanced interactions at the interface between science and the law.This,in turn,provides support for ongoing developments that can be called the"probabilization"of forensic science.

Research on the influence of building convex exit on crowd evacuation and its design optimization

Building exit has always been an emphasis of research in the field of evacuation.Existing studies on crowd flow characteristics at building evacuation bottlenecks usually focus on plane exit,but insufficient attention has been paid to the characteristics of crowd flow at the convex exit.Convex exit can be considered as such a structure like a double-bottleneck linked passage.This paper aims to study the influence of geometric structure characteristics of the convex exit on crowd evacuation and put forward the optimal design strategy of this structure,so as to improve the efficiency of evacuation in an emergency.Using social force model-based software,MassMotion,it is found that convex exit is indeed more efficient and safer than common plane exit in terms of evacuation time and pedestrians'congestion,especially when the desired speed is relatively higher,indicating that convex exits are more suitable for crowd evacuation in case of emergency.Four size-related parameters of convex exit are analyzed in detail,namely the width of the bottleneck at passage(W_(p)),the passage width(W),the passage length(L),and the exit width(W_(e)),to find out the optimum design of convex exit.The research shows that the optimal size ratio is that Wp:W:L:We equals 1.5:1.75:3.5:1,and as the overall magnification of building size and the number of pedestrians increases,the evacuation time gradually tends to a stable value,which indicates that this optimal ratio has good adaptability in size effect.Finally,based on the in-depth mechanism of pedestrian flow at the convex exit,three possible application scenarios are proposed to illustrate the feasible optimum design of the convex exit.The results of this study can provide new ideas for research on the structure of building exits.

Chemical Analysis of Tire Traces in Traffic Accidents Investigation

The aim of the forensic investigation of traffic accidents is to help establish the nature and/or the circumstances of the event.This might be done with the purpose of determining the legal responsibilities of each person involved or to provide families,with a reconstruction of the events,to help understand why their relatives were injured or killed.A methodology for the comparison of chemical profiles of tire traces and tire tread samples obtained by pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry has been developed.Chemical profiles are represented by relative abundances of 86 compounds.The variability of the tread within and between 12 tires was assessed.Considering the level of the source as"brand and model"the intra-variability was found to be smaller than the inter-variability leading to the complete discrimination of the 12 tires of the sample set.Braking tests were carried out on a racetrack in order to produce tire traces which origin was known.The results obtained with a supervised classification method showed that more than 94%of the replicates of the traces were correctly assigned to the class membership(i.e.,brand and model)of the tire at their origin.These results support that the chemical profile of one trace does not differ from the chemical profile of the tire at its origin but differs generally from the other chemical profiles of the sample set.

鉴定意见“优良性”判别和量化的规范方法研究

本文将会审查并分析一些通常认识,这些认识是关于那些已经被统计学证实并且可以被称之为一项决策(鉴定意见)的法庭科学同一认定的推断。PCAST(美国总统科学和技术顾问委员会)于2016年对法庭科学实践过程的系列考察,发布了有实证数据支持的建议。作者也会从该角度来考虑这一主题。作者也会指出这些通过鉴定得出的意见为何以及如何能够称之为决策,并通过实验方法证明这些观点(即在可控条件下有多位专家进行实验),提供一种对于专家表现和特定法庭科学分支(如指纹检验)的一般科学有效性可描述的评价指标。尽管这有助于评估某个特定法庭科学领域的鉴定实践是否值得信任,然而这些通过实验得出的数据并不能解答在特定个案中什么是好的鉴定意见(决策)。在之后的问题讨论中我们需要更进一步的思考,比如思考做决策的目的是什么。我们将会提出一种规范的方法,即一对对立的鉴定意见的“质”和“量”的比较可以被视为统计学的扩展领域,其中推理和数据分析是必要但不充分的前提条件。

Evaluation and Examination of a Possible Shoe‑polish Trace in a Hold‑up Case

In this article,we show how the Bayesian framework can be applied to a hold‑up case involving a possible shoe‑polish trace according to one of the parties.This article highlights the importance of interpreting data from the beginning of the examination through the preassessment steps.Once a set of alternative propositions in agreement with the information provided by the parties is chosen,one can establish what is needed in the case.Here,limited data were available to assign factors such as transfer and rarity of the traces.Consequently,we showed how specific case‑tailored experiments provide meaningful data for evaluation.In this case,the police had observed a trace on the jacket of a person who reported to have been pushed with the offender’s gun during the hold‑up attempt.When the jacket was submitted to our laboratory,the exact nature of the trace was unknown.Particles from this trace were collected and analyzed by stereomicroscopy,microscopy,and infrared spectroscopy.The obtained results supported that this trace was waxy material.The literature dealing with the analysis of waxy materials generally uses solvent extraction‑based methods.Here,as our analytical sequence allowed a good discrimination of different waxy products of known origin,we considered that this methodology was adequate.Moreover,it did not involve any extraction step that could lead to undesired compounds from the substrate(e.g.,dyes and additives).This article therefore suggests an alternative analytical sequence for the analysis of such material in casework.