The generally adopted worldwide target is to keep the increase in the global mean temperature lower than 2C by 2100, which is comparable with that of the preindustrial era. It is feasible for China to realize an emiss...The generally adopted worldwide target is to keep the increase in the global mean temperature lower than 2C by 2100, which is comparable with that of the preindustrial era. It is feasible for China to realize an emission pathway that is consistent with this target; however, we need to understand the roadmap to do so. In this paper, the results of a modeling study by the Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China(IPAC)concerning the investment required to realize the 2℃ scenario by examining the penetration of low-carbon technologies including energy supply and energy efficiency improvement in end-use sectors is presented. It is found that the investment required in the energy supply sector to realize the 2C scenario could reach CN$1.2 trillion by 2020, CN$1.0 trillion by 2030, and CN$1.4 trillion by 2050. The investment needed for energy saving could reach CN$1.6 trillion by 2020, CN$1.8 trillion by 2030, and CN$1.5 trillion by 2050, which represents the additional investment as compared with the use of old technologies. If the investment required both in the energy supply sector and in energy saving in enduse sectors is considered, the total investment is estimated to be CN$2.8 trillion by 2020, CN$2.8 trillion by 2030, and CN$2.9 trillion by 2050.These investments account for 2.5% of China's total GDP in 2020, 1.3% in 2030, and 0.6% by 2050, which represents quite a small investment percentage to realize the goal of low-carbon development.展开更多
China announced its intention to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 in 2020,and there is an urgent need to understand the viability of emission pathways to reach this goal.This study presents the IPAC modelling team...China announced its intention to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 in 2020,and there is an urgent need to understand the viability of emission pathways to reach this goal.This study presents the IPAC modelling team's scenario analysis on China's hydrogen utilisation as a key option for carbon neutrality pathways.In contrast to other studies,this study examines the demand for hydrogen as a feedstock and process material in the industrial sector and as a source of energy in the transportation sector in relation to China's energy system transition.The process of manufacturing hydrogen from carbon-free power generation was also analysed.The finding indicates that the demand for hydrogen could reach 52.4 Mt by 2050 and that the hydrogen will come from renewable power generation and nuclear energy,increasing the demand for electricity by 1884.8 TW h.There are several regions in China with abundant renewable energy and low power generation costs,which will make the hydrogen-based industry competitive in these regions after 2035.展开更多
基金supported by National Science and Technology Program (2012CB955801)Basic Research and National Objectives& National Basic Research Program of China (2014CB441300)National Social Science Foundation (15ZDA055)
文摘The generally adopted worldwide target is to keep the increase in the global mean temperature lower than 2C by 2100, which is comparable with that of the preindustrial era. It is feasible for China to realize an emission pathway that is consistent with this target; however, we need to understand the roadmap to do so. In this paper, the results of a modeling study by the Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China(IPAC)concerning the investment required to realize the 2℃ scenario by examining the penetration of low-carbon technologies including energy supply and energy efficiency improvement in end-use sectors is presented. It is found that the investment required in the energy supply sector to realize the 2C scenario could reach CN$1.2 trillion by 2020, CN$1.0 trillion by 2030, and CN$1.4 trillion by 2050. The investment needed for energy saving could reach CN$1.6 trillion by 2020, CN$1.8 trillion by 2030, and CN$1.5 trillion by 2050, which represents the additional investment as compared with the use of old technologies. If the investment required both in the energy supply sector and in energy saving in enduse sectors is considered, the total investment is estimated to be CN$2.8 trillion by 2020, CN$2.8 trillion by 2030, and CN$2.9 trillion by 2050.These investments account for 2.5% of China's total GDP in 2020, 1.3% in 2030, and 0.6% by 2050, which represents quite a small investment percentage to realize the goal of low-carbon development.
基金supported by the Key Research Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology(2017YFA0605032)the National Social Science Foundation(21ZDA085).
文摘China announced its intention to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 in 2020,and there is an urgent need to understand the viability of emission pathways to reach this goal.This study presents the IPAC modelling team's scenario analysis on China's hydrogen utilisation as a key option for carbon neutrality pathways.In contrast to other studies,this study examines the demand for hydrogen as a feedstock and process material in the industrial sector and as a source of energy in the transportation sector in relation to China's energy system transition.The process of manufacturing hydrogen from carbon-free power generation was also analysed.The finding indicates that the demand for hydrogen could reach 52.4 Mt by 2050 and that the hydrogen will come from renewable power generation and nuclear energy,increasing the demand for electricity by 1884.8 TW h.There are several regions in China with abundant renewable energy and low power generation costs,which will make the hydrogen-based industry competitive in these regions after 2035.
