The decomposition-based vector autoregressive model （DVAR） provides a new framework for scrutinizing the efficiency of technical analysis in forecasting stock returns. However, its relation- ships with other technic...The decomposition-based vector autoregressive model （DVAR） provides a new framework for scrutinizing the efficiency of technical analysis in forecasting stock returns. However, its relation- ships with other technical indicators still remain unknown. This paper investigates the relationships of DVAR model with the Japanese Candlestick indicators using simulations, theoretical explanations and empirical studies. The main finding of this paper is that both lower and upper shadows in Japanese Candlestick Granger contribute to the DVAR model explanation power, and thus, providing useful information for improving the DVAR forecasts. This finding makes sense as it means that the infor- mation contained in the lower and upper shadows should be used when modeling the stock returns with DVAR. Empirical studies performed on China SSEC stock index demonstrate that DVAR model with upper and lower shadows as exogenous variables does have informative and valuable out-of-sample forecasts.展开更多
This paper presents simple and fast algorithms for computing very tight upper and lower bounds on the prices of American Asian options in the binomial model.The authors choose two types sets of the actual arithmetic a...This paper presents simple and fast algorithms for computing very tight upper and lower bounds on the prices of American Asian options in the binomial model.The authors choose two types sets of the actual arithmetic average prices,instead of the simulated values in other existing models,as the representative average prices at each node of the binomial tree.This approach simplifies effectively the computation and reduces the error caused by the linear interpolation.Numerical results show that the approach produces accurate upper and lower bounds compared to the other existing methods based on the binomial tree.展开更多
This paper investigates the mean-reversion and volatile of credit spread time series by using regression and time series analysis in Chinese bond market. Then the Longstaff-Schwartz model and GARCH model are applied t...This paper investigates the mean-reversion and volatile of credit spread time series by using regression and time series analysis in Chinese bond market. Then the Longstaff-Schwartz model and GARCH model are applied to price credit spread put option. The authors compare the features of these two models by employing daily bond prices of government bonds and corporate bonds for the period 2010–2012 in Chinese bond market. The proposed results show that the higher the credit ratings of the corporate bonds are, the lower the prices of the credit spread options are.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.71401033
文摘The decomposition-based vector autoregressive model （DVAR） provides a new framework for scrutinizing the efficiency of technical analysis in forecasting stock returns. However, its relation- ships with other technical indicators still remain unknown. This paper investigates the relationships of DVAR model with the Japanese Candlestick indicators using simulations, theoretical explanations and empirical studies. The main finding of this paper is that both lower and upper shadows in Japanese Candlestick Granger contribute to the DVAR model explanation power, and thus, providing useful information for improving the DVAR forecasts. This finding makes sense as it means that the infor- mation contained in the lower and upper shadows should be used when modeling the stock returns with DVAR. Empirical studies performed on China SSEC stock index demonstrate that DVAR model with upper and lower shadows as exogenous variables does have informative and valuable out-of-sample forecasts.
基金partially supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2012M510377National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71373043,71331006,and 71171119+2 种基金the National Social Science Foundation of China under Grant No.11AZD010Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University under Grant No.NCET-10-0337Program for Excellent Talents,UIBE
文摘This paper presents simple and fast algorithms for computing very tight upper and lower bounds on the prices of American Asian options in the binomial model.The authors choose two types sets of the actual arithmetic average prices,instead of the simulated values in other existing models,as the representative average prices at each node of the binomial tree.This approach simplifies effectively the computation and reduces the error caused by the linear interpolation.Numerical results show that the approach produces accurate upper and lower bounds compared to the other existing methods based on the binomial tree.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71171012and 70901019Humanity and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China under Grant No.14YJA790075
文摘This paper investigates the mean-reversion and volatile of credit spread time series by using regression and time series analysis in Chinese bond market. Then the Longstaff-Schwartz model and GARCH model are applied to price credit spread put option. The authors compare the features of these two models by employing daily bond prices of government bonds and corporate bonds for the period 2010–2012 in Chinese bond market. The proposed results show that the higher the credit ratings of the corporate bonds are, the lower the prices of the credit spread options are.
