Hybrid Model for Short-Term Passenger Flow Prediction in Rail Transit

A precise and timely forecast of short-term rail transit passenger flow provides data support for traffic management and operation,assisting rail operators in efficiently allocating resources and timely relieving pressure on passenger safety and operation.First,the passenger flow sequence models in the study are broken down using VMD for noise reduction.The objective environment features are then added to the characteristic factors that affect the passenger flow.The target station serves as an additional spatial feature and is mined concurrently using the KNN algorithm.It is shown that the hybrid model VMD-CLSMT has a higher prediction accuracy,by setting BP,CNN,and LSTM reference experiments.All models’second order prediction effects are superior to their first order effects,showing that the residual network can significantly raise model prediction accuracy.Additionally,it confirms the efficacy of supplementary and objective environmental features.

Simulation study on cooperation behaviors and crowd dynamics in pedestrian evacuation

Pedestrian evacuation is actually a process of behavioral evolution. Interaction behaviors between pedestrians affect not only the evolution of their cooperation strategy, but also their evacuation paths-scheduling and dynamics features. The existence of interaction behaviors and cooperation evolution is therefore critical for pedestrian evacuation. To address this issue, an extended cellular automaton(CA) evacuation model considering the effects of interaction behaviors and cooperation evolution is proposed here. The influence mechanism of the environment factor and interaction behaviors between neighbors on the decision-making of one pedestrian to path scheduling is focused. Average payoffs interacting with neighbors are used to represent the competitive ability of one pedestrian, aiming to solve the conflicts when more than one pedestrian competes for the same position based on a new method. Influences of interaction behaviors, the panic degree and the conflict cost on the evacuation dynamics and cooperation evolution of pedestrians are discussed. Simulation results of the room evacuation show that the interaction behaviors between pedestrians to a certain extent are beneficial to the evacuation efficiency and the formation of cooperation behaviors as well. The increase of conflict cost prolongs the evacuation time. Panic emotions of pedestrians are bad for cooperation behaviors of the crowd and have complex effects on evacuation time. A new self-organization effect is also presented.

Reflections on China’s Targeted Poverty Alleviation Strategy from the Perspective of Drawing on Advantages and Avoiding Disadvantages in the New Era

The new era has put forward new requirements for targeted poverty alleviation.Coordinating disaster prevention,mitigation and relief and ecological civilization construction to assist targeted poverty alleviation has become an important direction for alleviating poverty from the perspective of drawing on advantages and avoiding disadvantages.The Outline of the 13th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China has planned and deployed to fully implement the task of poverty alleviation.The current poverty alleviation is extending from fixed-point poverty alleviation to collaborative poverty alleviation and targeted poverty alleviation.Combining the needs of disaster response,climate adaptation,resource utilization,ecological construction,and information utilization in poverty-stricken areas,the role of disaster risk monitoring,forecasting and early warning services is displayed.The disaster prevention,mitigation and relief and poverty alleviation in the new era should be integrated into the national poverty alleviation pattern,actively serve poverty alleviation projects of industry development,relocation and ecological protection,deeply explore the value of disaster risk information and improve the effective supply of disaster prevention,mitigation and relief services,letting disaster prevention,mitigation and relief and ecological civilization construction help the implementation of targeted poverty alleviation.