Evolution of seismic risk management for insurance over the past 30 years

During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing ＂Insur Tech＂ tools to address the much needed ＂Insurance for the Masses＂, especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and scientists.This paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing financial risk due to natural catastrophes. Historical losses and the share of those losses covered by insurance will be presented. How such risk sharing can help the nation share the burden of losses between tax paying public, the ＂at risk＂ property owners, the insurers and the reinsurers will be discussed. The paper will summarize the tools that are used by the insurance and reinsurance companies for estimating their future losses due to catastrophic natural events. The paper will also show how the results of loss estimation technologies developed by engineers are communicated to the business flow of insurance/reinsurance companies. Finally, to make it possible to grow ＂Insurance for the Masses - IFM＂, the role played by parametric insurance products and Insur Tech tools will be discussed.

平衡大气边界层的数值模拟和风洞实验

通过了风洞实验和计算流体动力学(CFD)模拟的对比,结果显示CFD模拟风特性剖面与实验结果吻合情况符合工程应用的精度要求,说明CFD模拟的有效性和准确性.在进行与风洞试验对比的数值模拟时,研究了壁面Y+值对模拟结果的影响,说明了数值模拟的准确性需要精细的壁面网格的支持.另外,通过CFD数值模拟无限长风洞构造满足水平均匀性要求的大气边界层流场,模拟结果显示模拟满足水平均匀性要求的大气边界层风剖面与计算风工程中通常使用的风剖面有一定的差异,因此针对此问题需要进一步的研究.

历史地震损失重建研究

历史地震损失重建是地震损失预测的一种方法,也是用于区域地震风险分析模型验证的一种手段。在介绍了历史地震损失重建一般方法的基础上,对方法中等效全损住宅比例估计方法以及住宅结构地震易损性指数的估计方法进行了重点分析,给出了这两个关键参数的可选择的多种估计方法。

Assessment of geodetic strain and stress variations in Nepal due to 25 April 2015 Gorkha earthquake:Insights from the GNSS data analysis and b-value

A magnitude M;7.8 earthquake occurred on 25 April 2015(referred as Gorkha earthquake).We have analyzed the spatial variation of b-value and two-dimensional strain within Nepal Himalaya before and after the Gorkha earthquake.We have used continuous Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)data from 30 stations in the Nepal region for geodetic strain estimation and earthquake data for b-value estimation.The GNSS data were processed using double differencing technique for the accurate position of each station.The precise velocity vectors show a general azimuth of north east for all the stations and have been used to derive two-dimensional strain.Between epicenters of Gorkha(25 April 2015)and Dolakha earthquakes(12 May 2015),we observed high co-seismic horizontal displacements(0.2 m to 2 m).In the Pre-seismic deformation study,maximum strain accumulation(56.40×10;)and low bvalue(0.79-0.89)was observed in and around the Western Nepal region,which may be responsible for the 2015 Gorkha earthquake.The potential seismic zones were identified by GIS based integration of geodetic strain and b-value map and superimposition using weighted overlay method.The Maximum strain and low b-value are now observed in the eastern part of Nepal.Hence,the spatial disposition of elastic energy has changed after the two major earthquakes and continuous seismic hazard assessment is required in the eastern Nepal.

Agricultural Risk Modeling Challenges in China:Probabilistic Modeling of Rice Losses in Hunan Province

This article summarizes a joint research projec undertaken under the Risk Management Solutions, Inc(RMS) banner to investigate some of the possible approaches for agricultural risk modeling in China. Two modeling approaches were investigated—the simulated weather crop index and the burn yield analysis approach. The study was limited to Hunan Province and a single crop—rice. Both modeling approaches were dealt with probabilistically and were able to produce probabilistic risk metrics. Illustrative model outputs are also presented. The article discusses the robustness of the modeling approaches and their dependence on the availability, access to, and quality of weather and yield data. We offer our perspective on the requirements for models and platforms for agricultural risk quantification in China in order to respond to the needs of all stakeholders in agricultural risk transfer.