This paper investigates the correlation between tidal stress and earthquakes for periods ranging from hours to months in the limited zone of the Palu region(Central Sulawesi,Indonesia).Through Schuster and binomial te...This paper investigates the correlation between tidal stress and earthquakes for periods ranging from hours to months in the limited zone of the Palu region(Central Sulawesi,Indonesia).Through Schuster and binomial tests,we examined the relation between the seismicity(time density of seismic events)and tidal potential arising from the Moon and Sun,using all tidal components simultaneously and focusing on the estimation of specific terms.The results show significant correlations between the seismicity and tidal potential for S2(0.5 d)and O1(1.075 d)tidal components in the case of solely isolated earthquake events,particularly for shallow earthquakes.Meanwhile,there is a strong relationship between aftershocks and tidal components larger than the Mf period(13.661 d).Finally,the analysis of the temporal variation of the earthquake-tide relation reveals an optimal correlation for about six years before the 2018 great Palu earthquake.The correlation becomes insignificant afterwards.展开更多
Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) we decomposed climatic time se- ries into principal components, and compared them with Earth rotation parameters. The global warming trends were initially subtrac...Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) we decomposed climatic time se- ries into principal components, and compared them with Earth rotation parameters. The global warming trends were initially subtracted. Similar quasi 60 and 20 year periodic os- cillations have been found in the global mean Earth temperature anomaly (HadCRUT4) and global mean sea level (GMSL). Similar cycles were also found in Earth rotation variation. Over the last 160 years multi-decadal change of Earth's rotation velocity is correlated with the 60-year temperature anomaly, and Chandler wobble envelope reproduces the form of the 60-year oscillation noticed in GMSL. The quasi 20-year oscillation observed in GMSL is correlated with the Chandler wobble excitation. So, we assume that Earth's rotation and climate indexes are connected. Despite of all the clues hinting this connection, no sound conclusion can be done as far as ocean circulation modelling is not able to correctly catch angular momentum of the oscillatory modes.展开更多
The adoption of the International Celestial Reference System (ICRS), based on Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations of extragalactic radiosources by the International Astronomical Union (IAU) sin...The adoption of the International Celestial Reference System (ICRS), based on Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations of extragalactic radiosources by the International Astronomical Union (IAU) since 1998 January 1, opened a new era for astronomy. The ICRS and the corresponding frame, the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF), replaced the Fundamental Catalog (FK5) based on positions and proper motions of bright stars, with the Hipparcos cat- alog being adopted as the primary realization of the ICRS in optical wavelengths. According to its definition, the ICRS is such that the barycentric directions of distant extragalactic objects show no global rotation with respect to these objects; this pro- vides a quasi-inertial reference for measuring the positions and angular motions of the celestial objects. Other resolutions on reference systems were passed by the IAU in 2000 and 2006 and endorsed by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) in 2003 and 2007, respectively. These especially concern the definition and re- alization of the astronomical reference systems in the framework of general relativity and transformations between them. First, the IAU 2000 resolutions refined the con- cepts and definition of the astronomical reference systems and parameters for Earth's rotation, and adopted the IAU 2000 precession-nutation. Then, the IAU 2006 resolutions adopted a new precession model that is consistent with dynamical theories; they also addressed definition, terminology or orientation issues relative to reference systems and time scales that needed to be specified after the adoption of the IAU 2000 resolutions. An additional IUGG 2007 resolution defined the International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS) so that it strictly complies with the IAU recommendations. Finally, the IAU 2009 resolutions adopted a new system of astronomical constants and an improved realization of the ICRF. These fundamental changes have led to significant improvements in the fields of astrometry, celestial mechanics, geodynam- ics, geodesy, etc. Of special interest are the improvements in the model for variations in Earth's rotation, which, in turn, can provide better knowledge of the dynamics of the Earth's interior. These have also contributed to a significant improvement in the accuracy of the ephemerides of the solar system bodies as determined from modern measurements, with a large number of scientific applications. This paper recalls the main aspects of the recent IAU resolutions on reference systems as well as their con- sequences on the concepts, definitions, nomenclature and models that are suitable for the definition, realization and transformation of reference frames at a microarcsecond level.展开更多
Earth's variable rotation is mainly produced by the variability of the AAM(atmospheric angular momentum). In particular, the axial AAM component X_3, which undergoes especially strong variations,induces changes in ...Earth's variable rotation is mainly produced by the variability of the AAM(atmospheric angular momentum). In particular, the axial AAM component X_3, which undergoes especially strong variations,induces changes in the Earth's rotation rate. In this study we analysed maps of regional input into the effective axial AAM from 1948 through 2011 from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Global zonal circulation patterns related to the LOD(length of day) were described. We applied MSSA(Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis) jointly to the mass and motion components of AAM, which allowed us to extract annual, semiannual, 4-mo nth, quasi-biennial, 5-year, and low-frequency oscillations. PCs(Principal components) strongly related to ENSO(El Nino southern oscillation) were released. They can be used to study ENSO-induced changes in pressure and wind fields and their coupling to LOD. The PCs describing the trends have captured slow atmospheric circulation changes possibly related to climate variability.展开更多
文摘This paper investigates the correlation between tidal stress and earthquakes for periods ranging from hours to months in the limited zone of the Palu region(Central Sulawesi,Indonesia).Through Schuster and binomial tests,we examined the relation between the seismicity(time density of seismic events)and tidal potential arising from the Moon and Sun,using all tidal components simultaneously and focusing on the estimation of specific terms.The results show significant correlations between the seismicity and tidal potential for S2(0.5 d)and O1(1.075 d)tidal components in the case of solely isolated earthquake events,particularly for shallow earthquakes.Meanwhile,there is a strong relationship between aftershocks and tidal components larger than the Mf period(13.661 d).Finally,the analysis of the temporal variation of the earthquake-tide relation reveals an optimal correlation for about six years before the 2018 great Palu earthquake.The correlation becomes insignificant afterwards.
基金supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (16-05-00753)partially supported by NSF/IGFA (ICER-1342644)
文摘Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) we decomposed climatic time se- ries into principal components, and compared them with Earth rotation parameters. The global warming trends were initially subtracted. Similar quasi 60 and 20 year periodic os- cillations have been found in the global mean Earth temperature anomaly (HadCRUT4) and global mean sea level (GMSL). Similar cycles were also found in Earth rotation variation. Over the last 160 years multi-decadal change of Earth's rotation velocity is correlated with the 60-year temperature anomaly, and Chandler wobble envelope reproduces the form of the 60-year oscillation noticed in GMSL. The quasi 20-year oscillation observed in GMSL is correlated with the Chandler wobble excitation. So, we assume that Earth's rotation and climate indexes are connected. Despite of all the clues hinting this connection, no sound conclusion can be done as far as ocean circulation modelling is not able to correctly catch angular momentum of the oscillatory modes.
文摘The adoption of the International Celestial Reference System (ICRS), based on Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations of extragalactic radiosources by the International Astronomical Union (IAU) since 1998 January 1, opened a new era for astronomy. The ICRS and the corresponding frame, the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF), replaced the Fundamental Catalog (FK5) based on positions and proper motions of bright stars, with the Hipparcos cat- alog being adopted as the primary realization of the ICRS in optical wavelengths. According to its definition, the ICRS is such that the barycentric directions of distant extragalactic objects show no global rotation with respect to these objects; this pro- vides a quasi-inertial reference for measuring the positions and angular motions of the celestial objects. Other resolutions on reference systems were passed by the IAU in 2000 and 2006 and endorsed by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) in 2003 and 2007, respectively. These especially concern the definition and re- alization of the astronomical reference systems in the framework of general relativity and transformations between them. First, the IAU 2000 resolutions refined the con- cepts and definition of the astronomical reference systems and parameters for Earth's rotation, and adopted the IAU 2000 precession-nutation. Then, the IAU 2006 resolutions adopted a new precession model that is consistent with dynamical theories; they also addressed definition, terminology or orientation issues relative to reference systems and time scales that needed to be specified after the adoption of the IAU 2000 resolutions. An additional IUGG 2007 resolution defined the International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS) so that it strictly complies with the IAU recommendations. Finally, the IAU 2009 resolutions adopted a new system of astronomical constants and an improved realization of the ICRF. These fundamental changes have led to significant improvements in the fields of astrometry, celestial mechanics, geodynam- ics, geodesy, etc. Of special interest are the improvements in the model for variations in Earth's rotation, which, in turn, can provide better knowledge of the dynamics of the Earth's interior. These have also contributed to a significant improvement in the accuracy of the ephemerides of the solar system bodies as determined from modern measurements, with a large number of scientific applications. This paper recalls the main aspects of the recent IAU resolutions on reference systems as well as their con- sequences on the concepts, definitions, nomenclature and models that are suitable for the definition, realization and transformation of reference frames at a microarcsecond level.
基金supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research grants No. 17-05-00989, No. 16-05-00753,NRU HSE and visiting grants positions at Paris observatory and Wuhan university for the first authorpartially supported by grants by NSF/IGFA Belmont Forum Project (Grant No. ICER-1342644)the Chinese Academy of Sciences/SAFEA International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams(Grant No. KZZD-EW-TZ-05)
文摘Earth's variable rotation is mainly produced by the variability of the AAM(atmospheric angular momentum). In particular, the axial AAM component X_3, which undergoes especially strong variations,induces changes in the Earth's rotation rate. In this study we analysed maps of regional input into the effective axial AAM from 1948 through 2011 from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Global zonal circulation patterns related to the LOD(length of day) were described. We applied MSSA(Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis) jointly to the mass and motion components of AAM, which allowed us to extract annual, semiannual, 4-mo nth, quasi-biennial, 5-year, and low-frequency oscillations. PCs(Principal components) strongly related to ENSO(El Nino southern oscillation) were released. They can be used to study ENSO-induced changes in pressure and wind fields and their coupling to LOD. The PCs describing the trends have captured slow atmospheric circulation changes possibly related to climate variability.