This study compares the atmosphere-only HighResMIP simulations from FGOALS-f3-H(FGOALS)and MRIAGCM3-2-S(MRI)with respect to tropical cyclone(TC)characteristics over the Western North Pacific(WNP)for the July-October m...This study compares the atmosphere-only HighResMIP simulations from FGOALS-f3-H(FGOALS)and MRIAGCM3-2-S(MRI)with respect to tropical cyclone(TC)characteristics over the Western North Pacific(WNP)for the July-October months of 1985-2014.The focus is on investigating the role of the tropical easterly jet over the Western Pacific(WP_TEJ)in modulating the simulation biases in terms of their climatological distribution and interannual variability of WNP TC genesis frequency(TCGF)based on the analysis of the genesis potential index(GPI).Results show that the two models reasonably capture the main TC genesis location,the maximum center of frequency,and track density;however,their biases mainly lie in simulating the intense TCs and TCGF distributions.The MRI better simulates the windpressure relationship(WPR)but overestimates the proportion of super typhoons(SSTYs).At the same time,FGOALS underestimates the WPR and the proportion of SSTYs but better simulates the total WNP TC precipitation.In particular,FGOALS overestimates the TCGF in the northeastern WNP,which is strongly tied to an overestimated WP_TEJ and the enhanced vertical circulation to the north of its entrance region.In contrast,the MRI simulates a weaker WP_TEJ and vertical circulation,leading to a negative TCGF bias in most of the WNP.Both models exhibit comparable capability in simulating the interannual variability of WP_TEJ intensity,but the composite difference of large-scale atmospheric factors between strong and weak WP_TEJ years is overestimated,resulting in larger interannual anomalies of WNP TCGF,especially for FGOALS.Therefore,accurate simulations of the WP_TEJ and the associated oceanic and atmospheric factors are crucial to further improving WNP TC simulations for both models.展开更多
Assessment of past-climate simulations of regional climate models(RCMs)is important for understanding the reliability of RCMs when used to project future regional climate.Here,we assess the performance and discuss pos...Assessment of past-climate simulations of regional climate models(RCMs)is important for understanding the reliability of RCMs when used to project future regional climate.Here,we assess the performance and discuss possible causes of biases in a WRF-based RCM with a grid spacing of 50 km,named WRFG,from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program(NARCCAP)in simulating wet season precipitation over the Central United States for a period when observational data are available.The RCM reproduces key features of the precipitation distribution characteristics during late spring to early summer,although it tends to underestimate the magnitude of precipitation.This dry bias is partially due to the model’s lack of skill in simulating nocturnal precipitation related to the lack of eastward propagating convective systems in the simulation.Inaccuracy in reproducing large-scale circulation and environmental conditions is another contributing factor.The too weak simulated pressure gradient between the Rocky Mountains and the Gulf of Mexico results in weaker southerly winds in between,leading to a reduction of warm moist air transport from the Gulf to the Central Great Plains.The simulated low-level horizontal convergence fields are less favorable for upward motion than in the NARR and hence,for the development of moist convection as well.Therefore,a careful examination of an RCM’s deficiencies and the identification of the source of errors are important when using the RCM to project precipitation changes in future climate scenarios.展开更多
Increasing the urban tree cover percentage(TCP) is widely recognized as an efficient way to mitigate the urban heat island effect. The cooling efficiency of urban trees can be either enhanced or attenuated on hotter d...Increasing the urban tree cover percentage(TCP) is widely recognized as an efficient way to mitigate the urban heat island effect. The cooling efficiency of urban trees can be either enhanced or attenuated on hotter days, depending on the physiological response of urban trees to rising ambient temperature. However, the response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature remains poorly quantified for China's cities. In this study, we quantify the response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature at noontime [~1330 LT(local time), LT=UTC+8] in 17summers(June, July, and August) from 2003–19 in 70 economically developed cities of China based on satellite observations. The results show that urban trees have stronger cooling efficiency with increasing temperature, suggesting additional cooling benefits provided by urban trees on hotter days. The enhanced cooling efficiency values of urban trees range from 0.002 to 0.055℃ %-1 per 1℃ increase in temperature across the selected cities, with larger values for the lowTCP-level cities. The response is also regulated by background temperature and precipitation, as the additional cooling benefit tends to be larger in warmer and wetter cities at the same TCP level. The positive response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature is explained mainly by the stronger evapotranspiration of urban trees on hotter days.These results have important implications for alleviating urban heat risk by utilizing urban trees, particularly considering that extreme hot days are becoming more frequent in cities under global warming.展开更多
As AI continues to establish itself as a cornerstone technology across various industries and scientific disciplines,its profound impact on atmospheric and oceanic science is becoming increasingly apparent.The advanta...As AI continues to establish itself as a cornerstone technology across various industries and scientific disciplines,its profound impact on atmospheric and oceanic science is becoming increasingly apparent.The advantages of AI in surmounting obstacles within our field are undeniable,as evidenced by breakthroughs in weather forecasting(e.g.,Bi et al.,2023),climate prediction(e.g.,Ham et al.,2019),AI-based parameterization schemes(e.g.,Rasp et al.,2018;Wang and Tan,2023),and beyond.Recognizing the transformative potential of AI in atmospheric and oceanic science,this special issue endeavors to explore the extensive applications of AI in our domain.展开更多
We investigate the characteristics and mechanisms of persistent wet–cold events(PWCEs)with different types of coldair paths.Results show that the cumulative single-station frequency of the PWCEs in the western part o...We investigate the characteristics and mechanisms of persistent wet–cold events(PWCEs)with different types of coldair paths.Results show that the cumulative single-station frequency of the PWCEs in the western part of South China is higher than that in the eastern part.The pattern of single-station frequency of the PWCEs are“Yangtze River(YR)uniform”and“east–west inverse”.The YR uniform pattern is the dominant mode,so we focus on this pattern.The cold-air paths for PWCEs of the YR uniform pattern are divided into three types—namely,the west,northwest and north types—among which the west type accounts for the largest proportion.The differences in atmospheric circulation of the PWCEs under the three types of paths are obvious.The thermal inversion layer in the lower troposphere is favorable for precipitation during the PWCEs.The positive water vapor budget for the three types of PWCEs mainly appears at the southern boundary.展开更多
By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationshi...By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationship with the North Pacific sea surface temperature(SST).Two significant interdecadal signals,one with an 11-year cycle and the other with a 23-year cycle,are identified in both the precipitation and SST fields.Results show that the North Pacific SST forcing modulates the precipitation distribution over China through the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-related anomalous Aleutian low on the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and Mongolia high(MH).During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 11-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin,whereas an intensified WPSH and MH caused the enhanced rain band to move northward to North China during the decay stage.During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 23-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over North China,whereas an intensified WPSH and the weakened MH increased the precipitation over South China during the decay stage.The 11-year and 23-year variabilities contribute differently to the precipitation variations in the different regions of China,as seen in the 1998flooding case.The 11-year cycle mainly accounts for precipitation increases over the Yangtze River Basin,while the 23-year cycle is responsible for the precipitation increase over Northeast China.These results have important implications for understanding how the PDO modulates the precipitation distribution over China,helping to improve interdecadal climate prediction.展开更多
In this study,the characteristics and preliminary causes of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)over China during the period from 1979 to 2020 are investigated.Results indicated that approximately 72.42%of tropi...In this study,the characteristics and preliminary causes of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)over China during the period from 1979 to 2020 are investigated.Results indicated that approximately 72.42%of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Western Pacific produce TRP over China.The peak months for TRP are July and August.The four key regions of TRP are the adjacent areas between the Sichuan and Shaanxi Provinces,the northern coast of the Bohai Sea,the coast of the Yellow Sea,and the southern coast area.The typical distance between the station with TRP and the TC center ranges from 1500 to 2500 km.Most of these stations are situated north to 60°west of north of the TC.The south–west water vapor transportation on the west side of the TC is crucial to TRP.TRP has a decreasing trend because of the decrease in the number of TCs that generate TRP.From the perspective of large-scale environmental conditions,a decrease in the integrated horizontal water vapor transport in China' Mainland,the weakening of upward motion at approximately 25°–35°N,which is inconducive to convection,and an increase in low-level vertical wind shear,which is unfavorable for the development of TC in areas with high frequencies of TRP-related TCs,are the factors that result in the decreasing trend of TRP.展开更多
The three-orbit constellation can comprehensively increase the spatial coverage of polar-orbiting satellites,but the polar-orbiting satellites currently in operation are only mid-morning-orbit and afternoon-orbit sate...The three-orbit constellation can comprehensively increase the spatial coverage of polar-orbiting satellites,but the polar-orbiting satellites currently in operation are only mid-morning-orbit and afternoon-orbit satellites.Fengyun-3E(FY-3E)was launched successfully on 5 July 2021 in China.As an early-morning-orbit satellite,FY-3E can help form a complete three-orbit observation system together with the mid-morning and afternoon satellites in the current mainstream operational system.In this study,we investigate the added benefit of FY-3E microwave sounding observations to the midmorning-orbit Meteorological Operational satellite-B(Met Op-B)and afternoon-orbit Fengyun-3D(FY-3D)microwave observations in the Chinese Meteorological Administration global forecast system(CMA-GFS).The results show that the additional FY-3E microwave temperature sounder-3(MWTS-3)and microwave humidity sounder-2(MWHS-2)data can increase the global coverage of microwave temperature and humidity sounding data by 14.8% and 10.6%,respectively.It enables the CMA-GFS to achieve nearly 100% global coverage of microwave-sounding observations at each analysis time.Furthermore,after effective quality control and bias correction,the global biases and standard deviations of the differences between observations and model simulations are also reduced.Based on the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A and the Microwave Humidity Sounder onboard Met Op-B,and the MWTS-2 and MWHS-2 onboard FY-3D,adding the microwave sounding data of FY-3E can further reduce the errors of analysis results and improve the global prediction skills of CMA-GFS,especially for the southern-hemisphere forecasts within 96 hours,all of which are significant at the 95% confidence level.展开更多
The Yangtze River basin(YRB)experienced a record-breaking mei-yu season in June‒July 2020.This unique long-lasting extreme event and its origin have attracted considerable attention.Previous studies have suggested tha...The Yangtze River basin(YRB)experienced a record-breaking mei-yu season in June‒July 2020.This unique long-lasting extreme event and its origin have attracted considerable attention.Previous studies have suggested that the Indian Ocean(IO)SST forcing and soil moisture anomaly over the Indochina Peninsula(ICP)were responsible for this unexpected event.However,the relative contributions of IO SST and ICP soil moisture to the 2020 mei-yu rainfall event,especially their linkage with atmospheric circulation changes,remain unclear.By using observations and numerical simulations,this study examines the synergistic impacts of IO SST and ICP soil moisture on the extreme mei-yu in 2020.Results show that the prolonged dry soil moisture led to a warmer surface over the ICP in May under strong IO SST backgrounds.The intensification of the warm condition further magnified the land thermal effects,which in turn facilitated the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)in June‒July.The intensified WNPSH amplified the water vapor convergence and ascending motion over the YRB,thereby contributing to the 2020 mei-yu.In contrast,the land thermal anomalies diminish during normal IO SST backgrounds due to the limited persistence of soil moisture.The roles of IO SST and ICP soil moisture are verified and quantified using the Community Earth System Model.Their synergistic impacts yield a notable 32%increase in YRB precipitation.Our findings provide evidence for the combined influences of IO SST forcing and ICP soil moisture variability on the occurrence of the 2020 super mei-yu.展开更多
In this study,we aim to assess dynamical downscaling simulations by utilizing a novel bias-corrected global climate model(GCM)data to drive a regional climate model(RCM)over the Asia-western North Pacific region.Three...In this study,we aim to assess dynamical downscaling simulations by utilizing a novel bias-corrected global climate model(GCM)data to drive a regional climate model(RCM)over the Asia-western North Pacific region.Three simulations were conducted with a 25-km grid spacing for the period 1980–2014.The first simulation(WRF_ERA5)was driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5(ERA5)dataset and served as the validation dataset.The original GCM dataset(MPI-ESM1-2-HR model)was used to drive the second simulation(WRF_GCM),while the third simulation(WRF_GCMbc)was driven by the bias-corrected GCM dataset.The bias-corrected GCM data has an ERA5-based mean and interannual variance and long-term trends derived from the ensemble mean of 18 CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the WRF_GCMbc significantly reduced the root-mean-square errors(RMSEs)of the climatological mean of downscaled variables,including temperature,precipitation,snow,wind,relative humidity,and planetary boundary layer height by 50%–90%compared to the WRF_GCM.Similarly,the RMSEs of interannual-tointerdecadal variances of downscaled variables were reduced by 30%–60%.Furthermore,the WRF_GCMbc better captured the annual cycle of the monsoon circulation and intraseasonal and day-to-day variabilities.The leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF)shows a monopole precipitation mode in the WRF_GCM.In contrast,the WRF_GCMbc successfully reproduced the observed tri-pole mode of summer precipitation over eastern China.This improvement could be attributed to a better-simulated location of the western North Pacific subtropical high in the WRF_GCMbc after GCM bias correction.展开更多
A mesoscale convective system(MCS) occurred over the East China coastal provinces and the East China Sea on 30April 2021, producing damaging surface winds near the coastal city Nantong with observed speeds reaching 45...A mesoscale convective system(MCS) occurred over the East China coastal provinces and the East China Sea on 30April 2021, producing damaging surface winds near the coastal city Nantong with observed speeds reaching 45 m s^(–1). A simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a 1.5-km grid spacing generally reproduces the development and subsequent organization of this convective system into an MCS, with an eastward protruding bow segment over the sea. In the simulation, an east-west-oriented high wind swath is generated behind the gust front of the MCS. Descending dry rear-to-front inflows behind the bow and trailing gust front are found to feed the downdrafts in the main precipitation regions. The inflows help to establish spreading cold outflows and enhance the downdrafts through evaporative cooling. Meanwhile, front-to-rear inflows from the south are present, associated with severely rearward-tilted updrafts initially forming over the gust front. Such inflows descend behind(north of) the gust front, significantly enhancing downdrafts and near-surface winds within the cold pool. Consistently, calculated trajectories show that these parcels that contribute to the derecho originate primarily from the region ahead(south) of the east-west-oriented gust front, and dry southwesterly flows in the low-to-middle levels contribute to strong downdrafts within the MCS. Moreover, momentum budget analyses reveal that a large westward-directed horizontal pressure gradient force within the simulated cold pool produced rapid flow acceleration towards Nantong. The analyses enrich the understanding of damaging wind characteristics over coastal East China and will prove helpful to operational forecasters.展开更多
正确认识不同区域能量和水分循环特征是研究局地地气相互作用及准确预测区域天气,气候变化的关键.为了研究属于干旱/半干旱气候的青藏高原(TP)和湿润/半湿润气候的长江流域(YRR)之间地表能量和水分交换的异同,本文对比分析了两个区域8...正确认识不同区域能量和水分循环特征是研究局地地气相互作用及准确预测区域天气,气候变化的关键.为了研究属于干旱/半干旱气候的青藏高原(TP)和湿润/半湿润气候的长江流域(YRR)之间地表能量和水分交换的异同,本文对比分析了两个区域8个不同地表类型(包括高山荒漠,高山草地,(平原)城市和(平原)草地等)观测站点的地表辐射和能量通量数据.结果显示:(1)TP由于高原大气层稀薄且空气洁净,年平均入射短波辐射为251.3W m^(-2),是YRR的1.7倍.加之高原地表反照率高导致反射辐射(59.6 W m^(-2))是YRR的2.87倍.入射及出射的长波辐射为231.5和338.0 W m^(-2),分别为YRR的0.64和0.83.而两个区域的净辐射差异不大;(2)草地站更多的潜热释放使得地表总加热效率高于城市和高山荒漠,TP和YRR的草地站的年平均潜热分别为35.0和38.8 W m^(-2),而植被稀疏且土壤干燥的高山荒漠地区感热最大,年平均感热为42.1 W m^(-2);其次是城市下垫面,其年平均感热为37.7 W m^(-2).研究结果揭示了不同气候背景下典型下垫面地气相互作用特征,为地气相互作用过程深入分析奠定了基础.展开更多
This study aimed to investigate drought as an extreme climatic event in Sudan by utilizing the Anomaly and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). This research employed high-resolution Climate Hazards Group Infrared Prec...This study aimed to investigate drought as an extreme climatic event in Sudan by utilizing the Anomaly and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). This research employed high-resolution Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall in Sudan from 2001 to 2015. Notably, the analysis compared the annual average precipitation to specific drought events and calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The results indicate a striking frequency of drought occurrence in Sudan, with SPI values suggesting similarities between drought and wet years. It is recommended to compute the SPI for individual stations rather than rely solely on area averages. Despite the comparable SPI values between the drought and wet years, this study emphasizes the profound impact of drought as a recurring phenomenon in Sudan. These findings emphasize the urgent need for proactive drought management and mitigation strategies in Sudan to effectively address the consequences of this climatic challenge.展开更多
Haze is a pollution weather phenomenon that has been widely concerned by people in recent years. It has a significant impact on people’s production, life, and health. This study focuses on large-scale haze weather th...Haze is a pollution weather phenomenon that has been widely concerned by people in recent years. It has a significant impact on people’s production, life, and health. This study focuses on large-scale haze weather that happened in eastern China in late January 2021. The research uses multi-party data and synoptic analysis methods to analyze the occurrence, evolution, and end of the haze weather. The polar vortex, the change of the atmospheric circulation, the change of the cold air force, the temperature and humidity, and the rain and snow weather are the important reasons for this weathering process. It can be used for reference in future research on haze weather.展开更多
Understanding the spatiotemporal variability of climatic parameters and their effects on pasture variability is vital for pasture management interventions over East Africa. The present study aims to assess the spatial...Understanding the spatiotemporal variability of climatic parameters and their effects on pasture variability is vital for pasture management interventions over East Africa. The present study aims to assess the spatial-temporal variability of rainfall, temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (which is being used to assess pasture quality and productivity) over the region, between the period of 1982 and 2019. This study used annual mean values for rainfall, temperature and NDVI which were calculated for the period mentioned above. NDVI was derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Area Cover (GAC) (NOAA-07-GAC) data. The rainfall data was acquired from the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) while temperature is ERA5 reanalysis data sourced from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The study utilized the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) to identify patterns and dominant relationships between the climate variables. The correlation was calculated between rainfall, temperature and NDVI to assess the relationship among them. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall trends test was used to determine whether annual precipitation, temperature and NDVI had statistically increasing or decreasing trend. Results revealed a positive correlation between rainfall and NDVI while a negative correlation between NDVI and temperature. Positive correlation between rainfall and NDVI indicates that pasture health (quality and productivity), will improve accordingly. A negative correlation between temperature and NDVI indicates that pasture health will decrease with increase in temperature while improving with decreasing temperature. Outcome from this study suggests that changes in climatic variables influence the distribution of pasture in East Africa’s cattle grazing areas. The study hence recommends prioritisation of climatic (weather) information during pasture management over East Africa.展开更多
In this study, the variability of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall and approach over Mozambique as well as the environmental factors influencing were investigated. The frequencies of tropical cyclone landfall and approa...In this study, the variability of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall and approach over Mozambique as well as the environmental factors influencing were investigated. The frequencies of tropical cyclone landfall and approach as well as environmental factors were compared between the two periods (1980 to 1999 and 2000 to 2020). This study found that, according to International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone data, the number of tropical cyclones making landfall over Mozambique increased by about 66% in the second period (2000-2020), compared to 34% in the first period (1980-1999). While the number of tropical cyclone approaches reduced from 59% in the first period to 41% in the second period. An assessment of the environmental conditions showed that warmer sea surface temperature (SST) and low vertical wind shear (VWS) were favorable to more TC genesis and, consequently, an increase in landfalls and a reduction in TC confined to the approach.展开更多
Extreme weather and climatic phenomena, such as heatwaves, cold waves, floods and droughts, are expected to become more common and have a significant impact on ecosystems, biodiversity, and society. Devastating disast...Extreme weather and climatic phenomena, such as heatwaves, cold waves, floods and droughts, are expected to become more common and have a significant impact on ecosystems, biodiversity, and society. Devastating disasters are mostly caused by record-breaking extreme events, which are becoming more frequent throughout the world, including Tanzania. A clear global signal of an increase in warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights has been observed. The present study assessed the trends of annual extreme temperature indices during the period of 1982 to 2022 from 29 meteorological stations in which the daily minimum and maximum data were obtained from NASA/POWER. The Mann-Kendall and Sen slope estimator were employed for trend analysis calculation over the study area. The analyzed data have indicated for the most parts, the country has an increase in warm days and nights, extreme warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights, extreme cold days and nights. It has been disclosed that the number of warm nights and days is on the rise, with the number of warm nights trending significantly faster than the number of warm days. The percentile-based extreme temperature indices exhibited more noticeable changes than the absolute extreme temperature indices. Specifically, 66% and 97% of stations demonstrated positive increasing trends in warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p), respectively. Conversely, the cold indices demonstrated 41% and 97% negative decreasing trends in TX10p and TN10p, respectively. The results are seemingly consistent with the observed temperature extreme trends in various parts of the world as indicated in IPCC reports.展开更多
The study addresses an urgent and globally significant issue of climate change by focusing on the detailed spatial and temporal analysis of temperature trends in Northern Sudan. It fills a critical research gap by pro...The study addresses an urgent and globally significant issue of climate change by focusing on the detailed spatial and temporal analysis of temperature trends in Northern Sudan. It fills a critical research gap by providing localized data over a substantial period (1990-2019), which could help in understanding the nuanced impacts of climate change in Sahel regions like Northern Sudan. In addition, the comprehensive coverage of both spatial and temporal dimensions, supported by a substantial dataset from five meteorological stations, provides a thorough understanding of the subject area. The utilization of robust statistical methods (Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope analysis) for analyzing temperature trends adds scientific rigor and credibility to the findings. Our results reveal a consistently increasing trend in maximum temperatures across most stations, particularly during the hot season (AMJ). However, the wet season (JAS) shows high maximum temperatures but no significant trend. Moreover, significant increasing trends in minimum temperatures were observed in all stations except Abu Hamed, where the trend, although increasing, did not reach statistical significance during the hot and cold seasons, and the coldest temperatures were observed during the cold season. These findings underscore the complex temperature dynamics in Northern Sudan and highlight the need for continued monitoring and adaptive measures in response to ongoing climate changes in the region.展开更多
Natural and human systems are exposed and vulnerable to climate extremes, which contributes to the repercussions of climate variability and the probability of disasters. The impacts of both natural and human-caused cl...Natural and human systems are exposed and vulnerable to climate extremes, which contributes to the repercussions of climate variability and the probability of disasters. The impacts of both natural and human-caused climate variability are reflected in the reported changes in climate extremes. Particularly at the local community levels in the majority of the regions, there is currently a dearth of information regarding the distribution, dynamics, and trends of excessive temperatures among the majority of Tanzanians. Over the years 1982-2022, this study examined trends in Tanzania’s extreme temperature over the June to August season. Based on the distinction between absolute and percentile extreme temperatures, a total of eight ETCCDI climate indices were chosen. Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the presence of trends in extreme climatic indices and the Sen’s Slope was applied to compute the extent of the trends in temperature extremes. The study showed that in most regions, there is significant increase of warm days and nights while the significant decrease of cold days and nights was evident to most areas. Moreover, nighttime warming surpasses daytime warming in the study area. The study suggests that anthropogenic influences may contribute to the warming trend observed in extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures globally, with Tanzania potentially affected, as indicated in the current research. The overall results of this study reflect patterns observed in various regions worldwide, where warm days and nights are on the rise while cold days and nights are diminishing.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42025502]the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research[grant number 2020B0301030004].
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA19060102)Shanghai 2021“Scientific and technological innovation action plan”Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.21ZR1420400)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91958201)International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences Grant 183311KYSB20200015the National Natural Science Foundation for Young Scientist of China(Grant No.41605079)。
文摘This study compares the atmosphere-only HighResMIP simulations from FGOALS-f3-H(FGOALS)and MRIAGCM3-2-S(MRI)with respect to tropical cyclone(TC)characteristics over the Western North Pacific(WNP)for the July-October months of 1985-2014.The focus is on investigating the role of the tropical easterly jet over the Western Pacific(WP_TEJ)in modulating the simulation biases in terms of their climatological distribution and interannual variability of WNP TC genesis frequency(TCGF)based on the analysis of the genesis potential index(GPI).Results show that the two models reasonably capture the main TC genesis location,the maximum center of frequency,and track density;however,their biases mainly lie in simulating the intense TCs and TCGF distributions.The MRI better simulates the windpressure relationship(WPR)but overestimates the proportion of super typhoons(SSTYs).At the same time,FGOALS underestimates the WPR and the proportion of SSTYs but better simulates the total WNP TC precipitation.In particular,FGOALS overestimates the TCGF in the northeastern WNP,which is strongly tied to an overestimated WP_TEJ and the enhanced vertical circulation to the north of its entrance region.In contrast,the MRI simulates a weaker WP_TEJ and vertical circulation,leading to a negative TCGF bias in most of the WNP.Both models exhibit comparable capability in simulating the interannual variability of WP_TEJ intensity,but the composite difference of large-scale atmospheric factors between strong and weak WP_TEJ years is overestimated,resulting in larger interannual anomalies of WNP TCGF,especially for FGOALS.Therefore,accurate simulations of the WP_TEJ and the associated oceanic and atmospheric factors are crucial to further improving WNP TC simulations for both models.
文摘Assessment of past-climate simulations of regional climate models(RCMs)is important for understanding the reliability of RCMs when used to project future regional climate.Here,we assess the performance and discuss possible causes of biases in a WRF-based RCM with a grid spacing of 50 km,named WRFG,from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program(NARCCAP)in simulating wet season precipitation over the Central United States for a period when observational data are available.The RCM reproduces key features of the precipitation distribution characteristics during late spring to early summer,although it tends to underestimate the magnitude of precipitation.This dry bias is partially due to the model’s lack of skill in simulating nocturnal precipitation related to the lack of eastward propagating convective systems in the simulation.Inaccuracy in reproducing large-scale circulation and environmental conditions is another contributing factor.The too weak simulated pressure gradient between the Rocky Mountains and the Gulf of Mexico results in weaker southerly winds in between,leading to a reduction of warm moist air transport from the Gulf to the Central Great Plains.The simulated low-level horizontal convergence fields are less favorable for upward motion than in the NARR and hence,for the development of moist convection as well.Therefore,a careful examination of an RCM’s deficiencies and the identification of the source of errors are important when using the RCM to project precipitation changes in future climate scenarios.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (Grant No. BK20240170)Open fund by Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control (KHK2203)+2 种基金the Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau Youth Fund (KQ202314)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2024300330)Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘Increasing the urban tree cover percentage(TCP) is widely recognized as an efficient way to mitigate the urban heat island effect. The cooling efficiency of urban trees can be either enhanced or attenuated on hotter days, depending on the physiological response of urban trees to rising ambient temperature. However, the response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature remains poorly quantified for China's cities. In this study, we quantify the response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature at noontime [~1330 LT(local time), LT=UTC+8] in 17summers(June, July, and August) from 2003–19 in 70 economically developed cities of China based on satellite observations. The results show that urban trees have stronger cooling efficiency with increasing temperature, suggesting additional cooling benefits provided by urban trees on hotter days. The enhanced cooling efficiency values of urban trees range from 0.002 to 0.055℃ %-1 per 1℃ increase in temperature across the selected cities, with larger values for the lowTCP-level cities. The response is also regulated by background temperature and precipitation, as the additional cooling benefit tends to be larger in warmer and wetter cities at the same TCP level. The positive response of urban trees' cooling efficiency to rising urban temperature is explained mainly by the stronger evapotranspiration of urban trees on hotter days.These results have important implications for alleviating urban heat risk by utilizing urban trees, particularly considering that extreme hot days are becoming more frequent in cities under global warming.
文摘As AI continues to establish itself as a cornerstone technology across various industries and scientific disciplines,its profound impact on atmospheric and oceanic science is becoming increasingly apparent.The advantages of AI in surmounting obstacles within our field are undeniable,as evidenced by breakthroughs in weather forecasting(e.g.,Bi et al.,2023),climate prediction(e.g.,Ham et al.,2019),AI-based parameterization schemes(e.g.,Rasp et al.,2018;Wang and Tan,2023),and beyond.Recognizing the transformative potential of AI in atmospheric and oceanic science,this special issue endeavors to explore the extensive applications of AI in our domain.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1505602)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41705055)+2 种基金the Graduate Innovation Project of Jiangsu Province (Grant No. CXZZ11_0485)the Creative Teams of Jiangsu Qinglan Projectthe Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)
文摘We investigate the characteristics and mechanisms of persistent wet–cold events(PWCEs)with different types of coldair paths.Results show that the cumulative single-station frequency of the PWCEs in the western part of South China is higher than that in the eastern part.The pattern of single-station frequency of the PWCEs are“Yangtze River(YR)uniform”and“east–west inverse”.The YR uniform pattern is the dominant mode,so we focus on this pattern.The cold-air paths for PWCEs of the YR uniform pattern are divided into three types—namely,the west,northwest and north types—among which the west type accounts for the largest proportion.The differences in atmospheric circulation of the PWCEs under the three types of paths are obvious.The thermal inversion layer in the lower troposphere is favorable for precipitation during the PWCEs.The positive water vapor budget for the three types of PWCEs mainly appears at the southern boundary.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42030410)Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ202202403-2)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB40000000)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST。
文摘By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationship with the North Pacific sea surface temperature(SST).Two significant interdecadal signals,one with an 11-year cycle and the other with a 23-year cycle,are identified in both the precipitation and SST fields.Results show that the North Pacific SST forcing modulates the precipitation distribution over China through the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-related anomalous Aleutian low on the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and Mongolia high(MH).During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 11-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin,whereas an intensified WPSH and MH caused the enhanced rain band to move northward to North China during the decay stage.During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 23-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over North China,whereas an intensified WPSH and the weakened MH increased the precipitation over South China during the decay stage.The 11-year and 23-year variabilities contribute differently to the precipitation variations in the different regions of China,as seen in the 1998flooding case.The 11-year cycle mainly accounts for precipitation increases over the Yangtze River Basin,while the 23-year cycle is responsible for the precipitation increase over Northeast China.These results have important implications for understanding how the PDO modulates the precipitation distribution over China,helping to improve interdecadal climate prediction.
基金supported by the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (No.KYCX22_1136)the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China (No.42275037)+2 种基金the Basic Research Fund of CAMS (No.2023Z016)the Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province (No.SCSF202202)supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘In this study,the characteristics and preliminary causes of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)over China during the period from 1979 to 2020 are investigated.Results indicated that approximately 72.42%of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Western Pacific produce TRP over China.The peak months for TRP are July and August.The four key regions of TRP are the adjacent areas between the Sichuan and Shaanxi Provinces,the northern coast of the Bohai Sea,the coast of the Yellow Sea,and the southern coast area.The typical distance between the station with TRP and the TC center ranges from 1500 to 2500 km.Most of these stations are situated north to 60°west of north of the TC.The south–west water vapor transportation on the west side of the TC is crucial to TRP.TRP has a decreasing trend because of the decrease in the number of TCs that generate TRP.From the perspective of large-scale environmental conditions,a decrease in the integrated horizontal water vapor transport in China' Mainland,the weakening of upward motion at approximately 25°–35°N,which is inconducive to convection,and an increase in low-level vertical wind shear,which is unfavorable for the development of TC in areas with high frequencies of TRP-related TCs,are the factors that result in the decreasing trend of TRP.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3004002)the Fengyun Application Pioneering Project(FY-APP-2021.0201)FY-3 Meteorological Satellite Ground Application System Project[FY-3(03)-AS-11.08]。
文摘The three-orbit constellation can comprehensively increase the spatial coverage of polar-orbiting satellites,but the polar-orbiting satellites currently in operation are only mid-morning-orbit and afternoon-orbit satellites.Fengyun-3E(FY-3E)was launched successfully on 5 July 2021 in China.As an early-morning-orbit satellite,FY-3E can help form a complete three-orbit observation system together with the mid-morning and afternoon satellites in the current mainstream operational system.In this study,we investigate the added benefit of FY-3E microwave sounding observations to the midmorning-orbit Meteorological Operational satellite-B(Met Op-B)and afternoon-orbit Fengyun-3D(FY-3D)microwave observations in the Chinese Meteorological Administration global forecast system(CMA-GFS).The results show that the additional FY-3E microwave temperature sounder-3(MWTS-3)and microwave humidity sounder-2(MWHS-2)data can increase the global coverage of microwave temperature and humidity sounding data by 14.8% and 10.6%,respectively.It enables the CMA-GFS to achieve nearly 100% global coverage of microwave-sounding observations at each analysis time.Furthermore,after effective quality control and bias correction,the global biases and standard deviations of the differences between observations and model simulations are also reduced.Based on the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A and the Microwave Humidity Sounder onboard Met Op-B,and the MWTS-2 and MWHS-2 onboard FY-3D,adding the microwave sounding data of FY-3E can further reduce the errors of analysis results and improve the global prediction skills of CMA-GFS,especially for the southern-hemisphere forecasts within 96 hours,all of which are significant at the 95% confidence level.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF0801603).
文摘The Yangtze River basin(YRB)experienced a record-breaking mei-yu season in June‒July 2020.This unique long-lasting extreme event and its origin have attracted considerable attention.Previous studies have suggested that the Indian Ocean(IO)SST forcing and soil moisture anomaly over the Indochina Peninsula(ICP)were responsible for this unexpected event.However,the relative contributions of IO SST and ICP soil moisture to the 2020 mei-yu rainfall event,especially their linkage with atmospheric circulation changes,remain unclear.By using observations and numerical simulations,this study examines the synergistic impacts of IO SST and ICP soil moisture on the extreme mei-yu in 2020.Results show that the prolonged dry soil moisture led to a warmer surface over the ICP in May under strong IO SST backgrounds.The intensification of the warm condition further magnified the land thermal effects,which in turn facilitated the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)in June‒July.The intensified WNPSH amplified the water vapor convergence and ascending motion over the YRB,thereby contributing to the 2020 mei-yu.In contrast,the land thermal anomalies diminish during normal IO SST backgrounds due to the limited persistence of soil moisture.The roles of IO SST and ICP soil moisture are verified and quantified using the Community Earth System Model.Their synergistic impacts yield a notable 32%increase in YRB precipitation.Our findings provide evidence for the combined influences of IO SST forcing and ICP soil moisture variability on the occurrence of the 2020 super mei-yu.
基金supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42075170)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFF0802503)+2 种基金the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Changea Chinese University Direct Grant(Grant No. 4053331)supported by the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab)
文摘In this study,we aim to assess dynamical downscaling simulations by utilizing a novel bias-corrected global climate model(GCM)data to drive a regional climate model(RCM)over the Asia-western North Pacific region.Three simulations were conducted with a 25-km grid spacing for the period 1980–2014.The first simulation(WRF_ERA5)was driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5(ERA5)dataset and served as the validation dataset.The original GCM dataset(MPI-ESM1-2-HR model)was used to drive the second simulation(WRF_GCM),while the third simulation(WRF_GCMbc)was driven by the bias-corrected GCM dataset.The bias-corrected GCM data has an ERA5-based mean and interannual variance and long-term trends derived from the ensemble mean of 18 CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the WRF_GCMbc significantly reduced the root-mean-square errors(RMSEs)of the climatological mean of downscaled variables,including temperature,precipitation,snow,wind,relative humidity,and planetary boundary layer height by 50%–90%compared to the WRF_GCM.Similarly,the RMSEs of interannual-tointerdecadal variances of downscaled variables were reduced by 30%–60%.Furthermore,the WRF_GCMbc better captured the annual cycle of the monsoon circulation and intraseasonal and day-to-day variabilities.The leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF)shows a monopole precipitation mode in the WRF_GCM.In contrast,the WRF_GCMbc successfully reproduced the observed tri-pole mode of summer precipitation over eastern China.This improvement could be attributed to a better-simulated location of the western North Pacific subtropical high in the WRF_GCMbc after GCM bias correction.
基金primarily supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (MOST)(Grant No. 2018YFC1507303)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 419505044,41941007, and 42230607)+1 种基金by the Talent Research Start-Up Fund of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics(Grant No. 1007-90YAH22046)supported by The High Performance Computing Platform of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics。
文摘A mesoscale convective system(MCS) occurred over the East China coastal provinces and the East China Sea on 30April 2021, producing damaging surface winds near the coastal city Nantong with observed speeds reaching 45 m s^(–1). A simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a 1.5-km grid spacing generally reproduces the development and subsequent organization of this convective system into an MCS, with an eastward protruding bow segment over the sea. In the simulation, an east-west-oriented high wind swath is generated behind the gust front of the MCS. Descending dry rear-to-front inflows behind the bow and trailing gust front are found to feed the downdrafts in the main precipitation regions. The inflows help to establish spreading cold outflows and enhance the downdrafts through evaporative cooling. Meanwhile, front-to-rear inflows from the south are present, associated with severely rearward-tilted updrafts initially forming over the gust front. Such inflows descend behind(north of) the gust front, significantly enhancing downdrafts and near-surface winds within the cold pool. Consistently, calculated trajectories show that these parcels that contribute to the derecho originate primarily from the region ahead(south) of the east-west-oriented gust front, and dry southwesterly flows in the low-to-middle levels contribute to strong downdrafts within the MCS. Moreover, momentum budget analyses reveal that a large westward-directed horizontal pressure gradient force within the simulated cold pool produced rapid flow acceleration towards Nantong. The analyses enrich the understanding of damaging wind characteristics over coastal East China and will prove helpful to operational forecasters.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,under the project entitled“The study of land-atmosphere water and heat flux interaction over the complex terrain of the north and south slopes of the Qomolangma region"[grant number 42230610]a Ministry of Science and Technology of China project called“Landatmosphere interaction and its climate effect of the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program"[grant number 2019QzKK0103]the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[2022069].
文摘正确认识不同区域能量和水分循环特征是研究局地地气相互作用及准确预测区域天气,气候变化的关键.为了研究属于干旱/半干旱气候的青藏高原(TP)和湿润/半湿润气候的长江流域(YRR)之间地表能量和水分交换的异同,本文对比分析了两个区域8个不同地表类型(包括高山荒漠,高山草地,(平原)城市和(平原)草地等)观测站点的地表辐射和能量通量数据.结果显示:(1)TP由于高原大气层稀薄且空气洁净,年平均入射短波辐射为251.3W m^(-2),是YRR的1.7倍.加之高原地表反照率高导致反射辐射(59.6 W m^(-2))是YRR的2.87倍.入射及出射的长波辐射为231.5和338.0 W m^(-2),分别为YRR的0.64和0.83.而两个区域的净辐射差异不大;(2)草地站更多的潜热释放使得地表总加热效率高于城市和高山荒漠,TP和YRR的草地站的年平均潜热分别为35.0和38.8 W m^(-2),而植被稀疏且土壤干燥的高山荒漠地区感热最大,年平均感热为42.1 W m^(-2);其次是城市下垫面,其年平均感热为37.7 W m^(-2).研究结果揭示了不同气候背景下典型下垫面地气相互作用特征,为地气相互作用过程深入分析奠定了基础.
文摘This study aimed to investigate drought as an extreme climatic event in Sudan by utilizing the Anomaly and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). This research employed high-resolution Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall in Sudan from 2001 to 2015. Notably, the analysis compared the annual average precipitation to specific drought events and calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The results indicate a striking frequency of drought occurrence in Sudan, with SPI values suggesting similarities between drought and wet years. It is recommended to compute the SPI for individual stations rather than rely solely on area averages. Despite the comparable SPI values between the drought and wet years, this study emphasizes the profound impact of drought as a recurring phenomenon in Sudan. These findings emphasize the urgent need for proactive drought management and mitigation strategies in Sudan to effectively address the consequences of this climatic challenge.
文摘Haze is a pollution weather phenomenon that has been widely concerned by people in recent years. It has a significant impact on people’s production, life, and health. This study focuses on large-scale haze weather that happened in eastern China in late January 2021. The research uses multi-party data and synoptic analysis methods to analyze the occurrence, evolution, and end of the haze weather. The polar vortex, the change of the atmospheric circulation, the change of the cold air force, the temperature and humidity, and the rain and snow weather are the important reasons for this weathering process. It can be used for reference in future research on haze weather.
文摘Understanding the spatiotemporal variability of climatic parameters and their effects on pasture variability is vital for pasture management interventions over East Africa. The present study aims to assess the spatial-temporal variability of rainfall, temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (which is being used to assess pasture quality and productivity) over the region, between the period of 1982 and 2019. This study used annual mean values for rainfall, temperature and NDVI which were calculated for the period mentioned above. NDVI was derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Area Cover (GAC) (NOAA-07-GAC) data. The rainfall data was acquired from the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) while temperature is ERA5 reanalysis data sourced from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The study utilized the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) to identify patterns and dominant relationships between the climate variables. The correlation was calculated between rainfall, temperature and NDVI to assess the relationship among them. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall trends test was used to determine whether annual precipitation, temperature and NDVI had statistically increasing or decreasing trend. Results revealed a positive correlation between rainfall and NDVI while a negative correlation between NDVI and temperature. Positive correlation between rainfall and NDVI indicates that pasture health (quality and productivity), will improve accordingly. A negative correlation between temperature and NDVI indicates that pasture health will decrease with increase in temperature while improving with decreasing temperature. Outcome from this study suggests that changes in climatic variables influence the distribution of pasture in East Africa’s cattle grazing areas. The study hence recommends prioritisation of climatic (weather) information during pasture management over East Africa.
文摘In this study, the variability of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall and approach over Mozambique as well as the environmental factors influencing were investigated. The frequencies of tropical cyclone landfall and approach as well as environmental factors were compared between the two periods (1980 to 1999 and 2000 to 2020). This study found that, according to International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone data, the number of tropical cyclones making landfall over Mozambique increased by about 66% in the second period (2000-2020), compared to 34% in the first period (1980-1999). While the number of tropical cyclone approaches reduced from 59% in the first period to 41% in the second period. An assessment of the environmental conditions showed that warmer sea surface temperature (SST) and low vertical wind shear (VWS) were favorable to more TC genesis and, consequently, an increase in landfalls and a reduction in TC confined to the approach.
文摘Extreme weather and climatic phenomena, such as heatwaves, cold waves, floods and droughts, are expected to become more common and have a significant impact on ecosystems, biodiversity, and society. Devastating disasters are mostly caused by record-breaking extreme events, which are becoming more frequent throughout the world, including Tanzania. A clear global signal of an increase in warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights has been observed. The present study assessed the trends of annual extreme temperature indices during the period of 1982 to 2022 from 29 meteorological stations in which the daily minimum and maximum data were obtained from NASA/POWER. The Mann-Kendall and Sen slope estimator were employed for trend analysis calculation over the study area. The analyzed data have indicated for the most parts, the country has an increase in warm days and nights, extreme warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights, extreme cold days and nights. It has been disclosed that the number of warm nights and days is on the rise, with the number of warm nights trending significantly faster than the number of warm days. The percentile-based extreme temperature indices exhibited more noticeable changes than the absolute extreme temperature indices. Specifically, 66% and 97% of stations demonstrated positive increasing trends in warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p), respectively. Conversely, the cold indices demonstrated 41% and 97% negative decreasing trends in TX10p and TN10p, respectively. The results are seemingly consistent with the observed temperature extreme trends in various parts of the world as indicated in IPCC reports.
文摘The study addresses an urgent and globally significant issue of climate change by focusing on the detailed spatial and temporal analysis of temperature trends in Northern Sudan. It fills a critical research gap by providing localized data over a substantial period (1990-2019), which could help in understanding the nuanced impacts of climate change in Sahel regions like Northern Sudan. In addition, the comprehensive coverage of both spatial and temporal dimensions, supported by a substantial dataset from five meteorological stations, provides a thorough understanding of the subject area. The utilization of robust statistical methods (Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope analysis) for analyzing temperature trends adds scientific rigor and credibility to the findings. Our results reveal a consistently increasing trend in maximum temperatures across most stations, particularly during the hot season (AMJ). However, the wet season (JAS) shows high maximum temperatures but no significant trend. Moreover, significant increasing trends in minimum temperatures were observed in all stations except Abu Hamed, where the trend, although increasing, did not reach statistical significance during the hot and cold seasons, and the coldest temperatures were observed during the cold season. These findings underscore the complex temperature dynamics in Northern Sudan and highlight the need for continued monitoring and adaptive measures in response to ongoing climate changes in the region.
文摘Natural and human systems are exposed and vulnerable to climate extremes, which contributes to the repercussions of climate variability and the probability of disasters. The impacts of both natural and human-caused climate variability are reflected in the reported changes in climate extremes. Particularly at the local community levels in the majority of the regions, there is currently a dearth of information regarding the distribution, dynamics, and trends of excessive temperatures among the majority of Tanzanians. Over the years 1982-2022, this study examined trends in Tanzania’s extreme temperature over the June to August season. Based on the distinction between absolute and percentile extreme temperatures, a total of eight ETCCDI climate indices were chosen. Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the presence of trends in extreme climatic indices and the Sen’s Slope was applied to compute the extent of the trends in temperature extremes. The study showed that in most regions, there is significant increase of warm days and nights while the significant decrease of cold days and nights was evident to most areas. Moreover, nighttime warming surpasses daytime warming in the study area. The study suggests that anthropogenic influences may contribute to the warming trend observed in extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures globally, with Tanzania potentially affected, as indicated in the current research. The overall results of this study reflect patterns observed in various regions worldwide, where warm days and nights are on the rise while cold days and nights are diminishing.