Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

Summer Atmospheric Water Cycle under the Transition Influence of the Westerly and Summer Monsoon over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin in the Southern Tibetan Plateau

This study compares the summer atmospheric water cycle,including moisture sources and consumption,in the upstream,midstream,and downstream regions of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau.The evolutions of moisture properties under the influence of the westerly and summer southerly monsoon are examined using 5-yr multi-source measurements and ERA5 reanalysis data.Note that moisture consumption in this study is associated with clouds,precipitation,and diabatic heating.Compared to the midstream and downstream regions,the upstream region has less moisture,clouds,and precipitation,where the moisture is brought by the westerly.In early August,the vertical wet advection over this region becomes enhanced and generates more high clouds and precipitation.The midstream region has moisture carried by the westerly in June and by the southerly monsoon from July to August.The higher vertical wet advection maximum here forms more high clouds,with a precipitation peak in early July.The downstream region is mainly affected by the southerly-driven wet advection.The rich moisture and strong vertical wet advection here produce the most clouds and precipitation among the three regions,with a precipitation peak in late June.The height of the maximum moisture condensation is different between the midstream region(325 hPa)and the other two regions(375 hPa),due to the higher upward motion maximum in the midstream region.The diabatic heating structures show that stratiform clouds dominate the upstream region,stratiform clouds and deep convection co-exist in the midstream region,and deep convection systems characterize the downstream region.

Improving Optimal Fingerprinting Methods Requires a Viewpoint beyond Statistical Science

While being successful in the detection and attribution of climate change,the optimal fingerprinting method(OFM)may have some limitations from a physics-and-dynamics-based viewpoint.Here,an analysis is made on the linearity,noninteraction,and stationary-variability assumptions adopted by OFM.It is suggested that furthering OFM needs a viewpoint beyond statistical science,and the method should be combined with theoretical tools in the dynamics and physics of the Earth system,so as to be applied for the detection and attribution of nonlinear climate change including tipping elements within the Earth system.

A Quasi-Linear Relationship between Planetary Outgoing Longwave Radiation and Surface Temperature in a Radiative-Convective-Transportive Climate Model of a Gray Atmosphere

In this study,we put forward a radiative-convective-transportive energy balance model of a gray atmosphere to examine individual roles of the greenhouse effect of water vapor,vertical convection,and atmospheric poleward energy transport as well as their combined effects for a quasi-linear relationship between the outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)and surface temperature(T_(S)).The greenhouse effect of water vapor enhances the meridional gradient of surface temperature,thereby directly contributing to a quasi-linear OLR-T_(S) relationship.The atmospheric poleward energy transport decreases the meridional gradient of surface temperature.As a result of the poleward energy transport,tropical(high-latitude)atmosphere-surface columns emit less(more)OLR than the solar energy input at their respective locations,causing a substantial reduction of the meridional gradient of the OLR.The combined effect of reducing the meridional gradients of both OLR and surface temperature by the poleward energy transport also contributes to the quasi-linear OLR-T_(S) relationship.Vertical convective energy transport reduces the meridional gradient of surface temperature without affecting the meridional gradient of OLR,thereby suppressing part of the reduction to the increasing rate of OLR with surface temperature by the greenhouse effect of water vapor and poleward energy transport.Because of the nature of the energy balance in the climate system,such a quasi-linear relationship is also a good approximation for the relationship between the annual-mean net downward solar energy flux at the top of the atmosphere and surface temperature.

Atmospheric Response to Mesoscale Ocean Eddies over the South China Sea

The South China Sea（SCS） is an eddy-active area. Composite analyses based on 438 mesoscale ocean eddies during 2000–2012 revealed the status of the atmospheric boundary layer is influenced remarkably by such eddies. The results showed cold-core cyclonic（warm-core anticyclonic） eddies tend to cool（warm） the overlying atmosphere and cause surface winds to decelerate（accelerate）. More than 5% of the total variance of turbulent heat fluxes, surface wind speed and evaporation rate are induced by mesoscale eddies. Furthermore, mesoscale eddies locally affect the columnar water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rain rate. Dynamical analyses indicated that both variations of atmospheric boundary layer stability and sea level pressure are responsible for atmospheric anomalies over mesoscale eddies. To reveal further details about the mechanisms of atmospheric responses to mesoscale eddies, atmospheric manifestations over a pair of cold and warm eddies in the southwestern SCS were simulated. Eddy-induced heat flux anomalies lead to changes in atmospheric stability. Thus, anomalous turbulence kinetic energy and friction velocity arise over the eddy dipole, which reduce（enhance） the vertical momentum transport over the cold（warm） eddy, resulting in the decrease（increase） of sea surface wind. Diagnoses of the model＇s momentum balance suggested that wind speed anomalies directly over the eddy dipole are dominated by vertical mixing terms within the atmospheric boundary layer, while wind anomalies on the edges of eddies are produced by atmospheric pressure gradient forces and atmospheric horizontal advection terms.

A 3D Nonhydrostatic Compressible Atmospheric Dynamic Core by Multi-moment Constrained Finite Volume Method

A 3D compressible nonhydrostatic dynamic core based on a three-point multi-moment constrained finite-volume (MCV) method is developed by extending the previous 2D nonhydrostatic atmospheric dynamics to 3D on a terrainfollowing grid. The MCV algorithm defines two types of moments: the point-wise value (PV) and the volume-integrated average (VIA). The unknowns (PV values) are defined at the solution points within each cell and are updated through the time evolution formulations derived from the governing equations. Rigorous numerical conservation is ensured by a constraint on the VIA moment through the flux form formulation. The 3D atmospheric dynamic core reported in this paper is based on a three-point MCV method and has some advantages in comparison with other existing methods, such as uniform third-order accuracy, a compact stencil, and algorithmic simplicity. To check the performance of the 3D nonhydrostatic dynamic core, various benchmark test cases are performed. All the numerical results show that the present dynamic core is very competitive when compared to other existing advanced models, and thus lays the foundation for further developing global atmospheric models in the near future.

Dominant patterns of winter surface air temperature over Central Asia and their connection with atmospheric circulation

The dominant patterns of the winter(December-February)surface air temperature anomalies(SATAs)over Central Asia(CA)are investigated in this study.The first two leading modes revealed by empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis represent the patterns by explaining 74%of the total variance.The positive phase of EOF1 is characterized by a monopole pattern,corresponding to cold SATAs over CA,while the positive phase of EOF2 shows a meridional dipole pattern with warm and cold SATAs over northern and southern CA.EOF1 is mainly modulated by the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation(AO)in the troposphere,and the negative AO phase may be caused by the downward propagation of the precursory anomalies of the stratospheric polar vortex.EOF2 is mainly influenced by the Ural blocking pattern and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO).The SATAs associated with EOF2 can be attributed to a dipole-like pattern of geopotential height anomalies over CA.The dipole-like pattern is mainly caused by the Ural blocking pattern,and the NAO can also contribute to the northern part of the dipole.

The diurnal transport of atmospheric water vapor during major dust storms on Mars based on the Mars Climate Database,version 5.3

In recent studies of the Martian atmosphere,strong diurnal variation in the dust was discovered in the southern hemisphere during major dust storms,which provides strong evidence that the commonly recognized meridional transport process is driven by thermal tides.This process,when coupled with deep convection,could be an important part of the short-term atmospheric dynamics of water escape.However,the potential of this process to alter the horizontal distribution of moist air has not been systematically investigated.In this work,we conducted pre-research on the horizontal transport of water vapor associated with the migrating diurnal tide(DW1)at 50 Pa in the upper troposphere during major dust storms based on the Mars Climate Database(MCD)5.3,a state-of-the-art database for Martian atmospheric research that has been validated as simulating the relevant short-period atmospheric dynamics well.We found westward-propagating diurnal patterns in the global water vapor front during nearly all the major dust storms from Martian years(MYs)24 to 32.Statistical and correlation analyses showed that the diurnal transport of water vapor during global and A-season regional dust storms is dominated by the DW1.The effect of the tidal transport of water vapor varies with the types of dust storms in different seasons.During regional dust storms,the tidal transport induces only limited diurnal motion of the water vapor.However,the horizontal tidal wind tends to increase the abundance of daytime water vapor at mid-to low latitudes during the MY 28 southern summer global dust storm while decreasing it during the MY 25 southern spring global dust storm.The tidal transport process during these two global dust storms can induce opposite effects on water escape.

The Tibetan Plateau bridge:Influence of remote teleconnections from extratropical and tropical forcings on climate anomalies

本文回顾了青藏高原桥梁作用方面的最新研究进展,涉及北大西洋气候异常对春,夏亚洲季风和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件的遥相关影响,热带海洋异常和中国东部极端气候异常之间的联系以及华南春雨的季节内变化等.介绍了年际时间尺度上,冬-春季北大西洋海表温度强迫如何影响南亚季风的季节性转变以及随后ENSO事件的触发.5月份青藏高原上空显著的负感热斜压结构,为北大西洋影响亚洲季风和ENSO提供了桥梁效应,夏季北大西洋涛动与华东夏季降水变化显著相关,高原潜热在这一关系中起着桥梁作用.另一方面,这种高原桥梁效应也存在于从热带海洋异常到东亚夏季极端降水事件的连接中,以及从中纬度波列到华南春雨准双周振荡的联系中.

Enhancing Deep Learning Soil Moisture Forecasting Models by Integrating Physics-based Models

Accurate soil moisture(SM)prediction is critical for understanding hydrological processes.Physics-based(PB)models exhibit large uncertainties in SM predictions arising from uncertain parameterizations and insufficient representation of land-surface processes.In addition to PB models,deep learning(DL)models have been widely used in SM predictions recently.However,few pure DL models have notably high success rates due to lacking physical information.Thus,we developed hybrid models to effectively integrate the outputs of PB models into DL models to improve SM predictions.To this end,we first developed a hybrid model based on the attention mechanism to take advantage of PB models at each forecast time scale(attention model).We further built an ensemble model that combined the advantages of different hybrid schemes(ensemble model).We utilized SM forecasts from the Global Forecast System to enhance the convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)model for 1–16 days of SM predictions.The performances of the proposed hybrid models were investigated and compared with two existing hybrid models.The results showed that the attention model could leverage benefits of PB models and achieved the best predictability of drought events among the different hybrid models.Moreover,the ensemble model performed best among all hybrid models at all forecast time scales and different soil conditions.It is highlighted that the ensemble model outperformed the pure DL model over 79.5%of in situ stations for 16-day predictions.These findings suggest that our proposed hybrid models can adequately exploit the benefits of PB model outputs to aid DL models in making SM predictions.

Differences in spring precipitation over southern China associated with multiyear La Ni?a events

Composite analyses were performed in this study to reveal the difference in spring precipitation over southern China during multiyear La Ni?a events during 1901 to 2015. It was found that there is significantly below-normal precipitation during the first boreal spring, but above-normal precipitation during the second year. The difference in spring precipitation over southern China is correlative to the variation in western North Pacific anomalous cyclone(WNPC), which can in turn be attributed to the different sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) over the Tropical Pacific. The remote forcing of negative SSTA in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and the local air-sea interaction in the western North Pacific are the usual causes of WNPC formation and maintenance.SSTA in the first spring is stronger than those in the second spring. As a result, the intensity of WNPC in the first year is stronger, which is more likely to reduce the moisture in southern China by changing the moisture transport, leading to prolonged precipitation deficits over southern China. However, the tropical SSTA signals in the second year are too weak to induce the formation and maintenance of WNPC and the below-normal precipitation over southern China. Thus, the variation in tropical SSTA signals between two consecutive springs during multiyear La Ni?a events leads to obvious differences in the spatial pattern of precipitation anomaly in southern China by causing the different WNPC response.

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

Southern Hemisphere Volcanism Triggered Multi-year La Niñas during the Last Millennium

To explain the recent three-year La Niña event from 2020 to 2022,which has caused catastrophic weather events worldwide,Fasullo et al.(2023)demonstrated that the increase in biomass aerosol resulting from the 2019-20 Australian wildfire season could have triggered this multi-year La Niña.Here,we present compelling evidence from paleo-proxies,utilizing a substantial sample size of 26 volcanic eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere(SH),to support the hypothesis that ocean cooling in the SH can lead to a multi-year La Niña event.This research highlights the importance of focusing on the Southern Ocean,as current climate models struggle to accurately simulate the Pacific response driven by the Southern Ocean.

Regional Climate Damage Quantification and Its Impacts on Future Emission Pathways Using the RICE Model

This study quantified the regional damages resulting from temperature and sea level changes using the Regional Integrated of Climate and Economy(RICE)model,as well as the effects of enabling and disabling the climate impact module on future emission pathways.Results highlight varied damages depending on regional economic development and locations.Specifically,China and Africa could suffer the most serious comprehensive damages caused by temperature change and sea level rise,followed by India,other developing Asian countries(OthAsia),and other high-income countries(OHI).The comprehensive damage fractions for China and Africa are projected to be 15.1%and 12.5%of gross domestic product(GDP)in 2195,with corresponding cumulative damages of 124.0 trillion and 87.3 trillion United States dollars(USD)from 2005 to 2195,respectively.Meanwhile,the comprehensive damage fractions in Japan,Eurasia,and Russia are smaller and projected to be lower than 5.6%of GDP in 2195,with cumulative damages of 6.8 trillion,4.2 trillion,and 3.3 trillion USD,respectively.Additionally,coastal regions like Africa,the European Union(EU),and OHI show comparable damages for sea level rise and temperature change.In China,however,sea level-induced damages are projected to exceed those from temperature changes.Moreover,this study indicates that switching the damage modules on or off affects the regional and global emission trajectories,but the magnitude is relatively small.By 2195,global emissions under the experiments with all of the damage modules switched off,only the sea level damage module switched on,and only the temperature damage module switched on,were 3.5%,2.3%and 1.2%higher than those with all of the damage modules switched on,respectively.

Wintertime Arctic Sea-Ice Decline Related to Multi-Year La Niña Events

Arctic sea ice has undergone a significant decline in the Barents-Kara Sea(BKS)since the late 1990s.Previous studies have shown that the decrease in sea ice caused by increased poleward moisture transport is modulated by tropical sea temperature changes(mainly referring to La Niña events).The occurrence of multi-year La Niña(MYLA)events has increased significantly in recent decades,and their impact on Arctic sea ice needs to be further explored.In this study,we investigate the relationship between sea-ice variation and different atmospheric diagnostics during MYLA and other La Niña(OTLA)years.The decline in BKS sea ice during MYLA winters is significantly stronger than that during OTLA years.This is because MYLA events tend to be accompanied by a warm Arctic-cold continent pattern with a barotropic high pressure blocked over the Urals region.Consequently,more frequent northward atmospheric rivers intrude into the BKS,intensifying longwave radiation downward to the underlying surface and melting the BKS sea ice.However,in the early winter of OTLA years,a negative North Atlantic Oscillation presents in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere,which obstructs the atmospheric rivers to the south of Iceland.We infer that such a different response of BKS sea-ice decline to different La Niña events is related to stratospheric processes.Considering the rapid climate changes in the past,more frequent MYLA events may account for the substantial Arctic sea-ice loss in recent decades.

Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率。1月波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常,该海温异常能够从1月持续到3月,进而影响白令海EMO.11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与11月至次年2月北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关。伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现,白令海地区会出现暖海温异常,进而导致白令海海冰范围减少,EMO较晚.1月北极偶极子异常是11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一.1981-2022年的交叉检验结果表明:统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力,预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.45,超过了99%的置信水平.统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和41%.

Are Solar Active Regions Born with Neutralized Currents?

Solar active regions(ARs)are formed by the emergence of current-carrying magnetic flux tubes from below the photosphere.Although for an isolated flux tube the direct and return currents flowing along the tube should balance with each other,it remains controversial whether such a neutralization of currents is also maintained during the emergence process.Here we present a systematic survey of the degrees of the current neutralization in a large sample of flux-emerging ARs which appeared on the solar disk around the central meridian from 2010 to 2022.The vector magnetograms taken by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard Solar Dynamic Observatory are employed to calculate the distributions of the vertical current density at the photosphere.Focusing on the main phase of flux emergence,i.e.,the phase in which the total unsigned magnetic flux is continuously increased,we statistically examined the ratios of direct to return currents in all the ARs.Such a large-sample statistical study suggests that most of the ARs were born with currents close to neutralization.The degree of current neutralization seems to be not affected by the active-region size,the active-region growing rate,and the total unsigned current.The only correlation of significance as found is that the stronger the magnetic field nonpotentiality is,the further the AR deviates from current neutrality,which supports previous event studies that eruption-productive ARs often have non-neutralized currents.

Deep Learning Shows Promise for Seasonal Prediction of Antarctic Sea Ice in a Rapid Decline Scenario

The rapidly changing Antarctic sea ice has garnered significant interest. To enhance the prediction skill for sea ice and respond to the Sea Ice Prediction Network-South's latest call, this study presents the reforecast results of Antarctic sea-ice area and extent from December to June of the coming year with a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory(Conv LSTM)Network. The reforecast experiments demonstrate that Conv LSTM captures the interannual and interseasonal variability of Antarctic sea ice successfully, and performs better than the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Based on this, we present the prediction from December 2023 to June 2024, indicating that the Antarctic sea ice will remain at lows, but may not create a new record low. This research highlights the promising application of deep learning in Antarctic sea-ice prediction.

Ascending phase of solar cycle 25 tilts the current El Nino-Southern oscillation transition

自2020年初夏,赤道太平洋地区出现拉尼娜现象并持续两年半多(以下简称2020拉尼娜),对其未来演变的预测引起了很多关注,考虑到11年太阳周期活动对热带太平洋SST异常可能存在锁相影响,本研究分析了当前太阳活动周(即第25太阳周(SC25))对目前热带太平洋ENSO现象未来演变的调节作用,基于历史太阳周的统计特征,作者对第25太阳周达到其最大值的时间提出三种可能的情景,并讨论了不同情景下的太阳活动对未来两年ENSO演变的可能影响,第25太阳周的持续上升阶段在一定程度上抑制了当前2023厄尔尼诺现象发展为超级事件.

Spatiotemporal Evaluation and Future Projection of Diurnal Temperature Range over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 Models

The diurnal temperature range(DTR) serves as a vital indicator reflecting both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. This study investigates the historical and projected multitemporal DTR variations over the Tibetan Plateau. It assesses 23 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) using CN05.1 observational data as validation, evaluating their ability to simulate DTR over the Tibetan Plateau. Then, the evolution of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau under different shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP) scenarios for the near,middle, and long term of future projection are analyzed using 11 selected robustly performing models. Key findings reveal:(1) Among the models examined, BCC-CSM2-MR, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-CC, EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR,FGOALS-g3, FIO-ESM-2-0, GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, and INM-CM5-0 exhibit superior integrated simulation capability for capturing the spatiotemporal variability of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau.(2) Projection indicates a slightly increasing trend in DTR on the Tibetan Plateau in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, and decreasing trends in the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SPP5-8.5 scenarios. In certain areas, such as the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, western hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, southern Kunlun, and the Qaidam basins, the changes in DTR are relatively large.(3) Notably, the warming rate of maximum temperature under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SPP5-8.5 is slower compared to that of minimum temperature, and it emerges as the primary contributor to the projected decrease in DTR over the Tibetan Plateau in the future.