Timing the market: the economic value of price extremes

By decomposing asset returns into potential maximum gain(PMG)and potential maximum loss(PML)with price extremes,this study empirically investigated the relationships between PMG and PML.We found significant asymmetry between PMG and PML.PML significantly contributed to forecasting PMG but not vice versa.We further explored the power of this asymmetry for predicting asset returns and found it could significantly improve asset return predictability in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting.Investors who incorporate this asymmetry into their investment decisions can get substantial utility gains.This asymmetry remains significant even when controlling for macroeconomic variables,technical indicators,market sentiment,and skewness.Moreover,this asymmetry was found to be quite general across different countries.

Return direction forecasting:a conditional autoregressive shape model with beta density

This paper derives a new decomposition of stock returns using price extremes and proposes a conditional autoregressive shape(CARS)model with beta density to predict the direction of stock returns.The CARS model is continuously valued,which makes it different from binary classification models.An empirical study is performed on the US stock market,and the results show that the predicting power of the CARS model is not only statistically significant but also economically valuable.We also compare the CARS model with the probit model,and the results demonstrate that the proposed CARS model outperforms the probit model for return direction forecasting.The CARS model provides a new framework for return direction forecasting.

Bank loan information and information asymmetry in the stock market:evidence from China

In this study,we use bank loan information to construct proxies for corporate transparency and examine whether these measures reflect information asymmetry in the stock market.Our analysis is based on a novel dataset of stock transactions and bank loans of all publicly listed firms on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange,covering January 2008 to June 2013.We find that firms with outstanding loans have a lower level of information asymmetry in the stock market,whereas firms with defaulted loans have a higher level of asymmetry.Further evidence demonstrates that the effect of loan default on information asymmetry in the stock market is more pronounced when these loans are borrowed from joint-equity commercial banks or multiple banks and when the default occurs under inactive market conditions.Our results remain robust to a series of endogeneity and sensitivity tests and provide suggestive evidence of a close connection between the credit loan and stock markets.

The Water Problem and Its Solution in Gansu, China

Based on such severe situation, we need to work out a way that enables us to analyze the current and future ability of a region to provide clean water to meet the needs of its population, and to develop a reasonable strategy to optimize the utilization of water resources in this area. This paper has worked out a resolution model and input the data of China, the United States, Russia, Laos and Afghanistan to do national testing. Then, we use the policy from “diaper incident” to do policy testing. The calculation results of the model are in conformity with the reality. Therefore, the model is effective. At last this model is used to resolve Gansu’s water problem and provide effective advices for the local government.

Coupling Degree Evaluation of China’s Internet Financial Ecosystem Based on Entropy Method and Principal Component Analysis

This paper attempts to evaluate the coordinated development state of the subsystems within the internet financial ecosystem in China from 2011 to 2016.Focusing on the main business modes,technological innovation,and the external environment,we select 29 indicators to construct an index system and adopt a coupling coordination degree model for evaluation.Furthermore,we use two weight calculation methods,entropy weight and principal component analysis,to ensure the robustness of the results.The empirical results show that China’s internet financial ecosystem experienced five development stages from 2011 to 2016,which are moderate disorder,near disorder,weak coordination,intermediate coordination,and good coordination.Different methods of obtaining weights have little effect on the empirical results.These findings suggest that at the beginning,the coordinated development of China’s internet financial ecosystem was hindered by factors including the scarcity of main business modes and the defect of technological innovation;then,with the rapid development of China’s internet industry,the external environment became another drawback in coordinated development.Finally,based on the findings,we give some policy recommendations from a global perspective to achieve a sustainable internet financial ecosystem.

Structure condition under initial enlargement of filtration

We address the question of how the structure condition is affected when one possesses some additional information at the very beginning of the investment period.The structure condition represents essentially an alternative to non-arbitrage conditions for the Markowitz’s portfolio optimization framework,and is crucial for the existence of the optimal portfolio in quadratic utility settings.Herein,we provide practical assumption on the initial market model and the additional information to preserve the structure condition.The stochastic tools that drive this result are a generalization of the Lazaro-Yor representation by Lazaro and Yor(1978)and optional stochastic integral.

Pricing of Defaultable Securities Associated with Recovery Rate Under the Stochastic Interest Rate Driven by Fractional Brownian Motion

This paper considers an improved model of pricing defaultable bonds under the assumption that the interest rate satisfies the Vasicek model driven by fractional Brownian motion(fBm for short)based on the counterparty risk framework of Jarrow and Yu(2001). The authors use the theory of stochastic analysis of f Bm to derive pricing formulas for the defaultable bonds and study how the counterparty risk, recovery rate, and the Hurst parameter affect the values of the defaultable bonds.Numerical experiment results are presented to demonstrate the findings.

THE IMPACT OF WARRANTS INTRODUCTION:SIGN EFFECT OR MAGNITUDE EFFECT?

The data of warrants underlying stocks was selected for the sample period from August,2005 to December,2009.These data the authors collected did not include the announcement date of reform of non-tradable underlying shares,and was available from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.The event study method is employed to test the magnitude effect based on the Wild bootstrap,which is performed on the abnormal return,the cumulative abnormal return,and the standardized cumulative abnormal return.Empirical results show no evidence of magnitude effect but sign effect after warrants introduction.The authors argue that this phenomenon is caused by the migration of radical agents from stock market to warrant market.

Trading-flow assisted estimation of the jump activity index

Existing estimators for the jump activity index only made use of the price dynamics of assets.In this study,we incorporate trading information and propose a trading-flow-adjusted(TA)estimator for the jump activity index for pure-jump Ito semimartingales observed at high frequencies.We derive the central limit theorem of the estimator and perform simulation studies that justify the theory.The new estimator is shown to be more efficient in terms of the convergence rate as compared with the existing estimators,which use only the price information under some realistic conditions.Empirical analysis shows estimates with lower standard errors than those that do not incorporate the trading information.

Comparative Study of Overseas Forest Carbon Financing Patterns and Its Inspiration on China

The role and position of forestry in response to the issue of climate change have been increasingly concerned by more and more countries and the international community.The cost incurred in forest carbon sequestration is lower than other options to mitigate climate change.However,the fund’s gap becomes the main barrier to reducing carbon emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation(REDD) and enhancing carbon storage in forests(REDD +) and also becomes the concerns of governments,academic community and enterprises.Based on the comparative analysis of overseas forest carbon financing models,the paper pinpointed their development trend and proposed solutions to financing for forest carbon sink in China.

Zombie Firms and Debt Accumulation: A Theoretical Framework and Chinese Experience

In recent years,as China has grappled with rising debt and broad economic restructure,the prevalence of zombie firms has become a critical problem.This paper provides a theoretical framework illustrating the rationale behind the occurrence of zombie firms from the perspective of banks.We develop differential equations to model a bank s expectation and the ex ante estimate that underlies its decision to refinance an insolvent borrower.An optimistic expectation is essential in zombie lending and is intrinsic to the countercyclical pattern of zombie firms.Our model also predicts that debt can build up to an unsustainable level if recovery ofprofitability is sluggish or the initial debt burden is too high.Examining the Chinese experience of zombie firms over 2007-2017,this paper highlights two findings.First,the share of zombie firms among Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies demonstrates a countercyclical pattern.Second,the positive correlation between zombie share and debt accumulation across manufacturing sectors sheds light on the link between zombie firms and the rising corporate debt in China.To deal with the zombie"problem,the government should carefully weigh its policies to avoid further distortions because the occurrence of zombie firms may be inevitable and impossible to eliminate.

Pricing Vulnerable Options with Correlated Credit Risk Under Jump-diffusion Processes When Corporate Liabilities Are Random

In this paper, we consider an improved model of pricing vulnerable options with credit risk. We assume that the vulnerable European options not only face default risk, but also face the rare shocks of the underlying assets and the counterparty assets. The dynamics of two correlated assets are modeled as a class of jump diffusion processes. Furthermore, we assume that the dynamic of the corporate liability is a geometric Brownian motion that is related to the underlying asset and the counterparty asset. Under this new framework,we give an explicit pricing formula of the vulnerable European options.

IS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS INFORMATIVE IN UK STOCK MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM DECOMPOSITION-BASED VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE(DVAR) MODEL

The paper proposes a new approach -- The decomposition-based vector autoregressive （DVAR） model to scrutinize the predictability of the UK stock market. Empirical studies performed on the monthly British FTSE100 index over 1984-2012 confirm that the DVAR model does provide informative forecasts for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. Trading strategies based on the DVAR forecasts can Significantly beat the simple buy-and-hold, which demonstrates the valuable information provided by technical analysis in the UK stock market.

Forecasting US Stock Market Returns:A Japanese Candlestick Approach

A Japanese candlestick chart consists of not only the closing price but also the high,low and opening price information.Using the Japanese candlestick,this paper investigates the forecasting power of the shadow in Japanese candlestick chart.Empirical studies performed with the US stock market show that 1)there is a significant Halloween effect in the shadow;2)shadow is valuable for predicting the stock market returns in both statistical and economic sense;3)the predictability reported by the shadow can not be explained by either the CAPM model or the Fama-French three-factor model.This paper confirms that predictability of the stock market can be improved if more price information is used.

Monetary Policy and Borrowers'Loan Defaults:Research Based on Data from Ren re ndai

This paper uses Renrendai data to study the relationship between monetaryj policy and the default behavior of borrowers,and analyzes the transmission channels.The research shows that tight monetary policy will lead to a significant increase in a borrower s probability to default,and this effect will continue for several months.There may be two transmission channels:(i)monetary policy changes a debtor s liquidity through credit and balance sheet channels,which directly affects their current repayment behavior;and(ii)monetary policy may affect a borrower s investment,production and profitability,thus changing their long-term solvency.The paper also finds that the repayment behavior of productive borrowers is more susceptible to monetary policy than consumptive borrowers,and that the default behavior of borrowers in coastal provinces is more susceptible to monetary policy than of borrowers in inland provinces.These findings provide new evidence for understanding how monetary policy affects individual behavior and its transmission mechanisms.

Artificial intelligence in pediatrics

The rapid development of information technology has involved advances in artificial intelligence(AI),big data processing,and cloud computing,with significant and farreaching effects on the structure and efficiency of the traditional healthcare industry,as well as the establishment and maintenance of modern medical management information systems.AI solutions for handling data in the medical field,such as electronic medical records,medical imaging technology,medical big data,intelligent drug design,and smart health management systems have emerged,which improve the standardization and accuracy of clinical decision making,while providing more dimensions of data accumulation for medical knowledge-based systems.These developments can also support physicians and researchers in the optimization of treatment plans,and decision making about optimal treatment options.This review aims to summarize recent advances in the research and clinical use of AI in pediatrics.

AN ACCURATE BINOMIAL MODEL FOR PRICING AMERICAN ASIAN OPTION

This paper presents simple and fast algorithms for computing very tight upper and lower bounds on the prices of American Asian options in the binomial model.The authors choose two types sets of the actual arithmetic average prices,instead of the simulated values in other existing models,as the representative average prices at each node of the binomial tree.This approach simplifies effectively the computation and reduces the error caused by the linear interpolation.Numerical results show that the approach produces accurate upper and lower bounds compared to the other existing methods based on the binomial tree.

Corporate Financial Policies under Heterogeneous Beliefs

This study investigates a firm's financing,investment,and payout policies through a rational expectation equilibrium based on which managers and outside investors have heterogeneous prior beliefs.The proposed model demonstrates that managers tend to overinvest(underinvest)if the extent of heterogeneousness is above(below)a threshold,which differs under distinct circumstances.Moreover,a price bubble is positively related to overinvestment,and the model shows that a firm's optimal financing choices and payout policies vary with the assumption of heterogeneous beliefs.