Carbon peak and carbon neutrality(dual-carbon)are important targets for the international response to climate change.The Silk Road Economic Belt is a strategic resource region and is important for future ecological en...Carbon peak and carbon neutrality(dual-carbon)are important targets for the international response to climate change.The Silk Road Economic Belt is a strategic resource region and is important for future ecological environment and tourism development.Based on the“dual-carbon”targets,the Single index quantification,Multiple index synthesis,and Poly-criteria integration evaluation model were used in this study to measure the coordinated development index of the ecological environment,public service,and tourism economy along the Silk Road Economic Belt and to analyze its spatial and temporal evolution.Further,it explores the dynamic evolution and development trend of the three systems using the Kernel Density and Grey Markov Prediction Model.The results show that the coordinated development index along this region needs to be improved during the study period.Furthermore,the coordinated development index of the Southwest region is relatively higher than that of the Northwest region.From the development trend of the three systems,all of them develop in a stable manner;however,the tourism economy system is easily affected by external disturbances.The coordinated development index of the three systems changes dynamically and tends to be in a good state of coordination.There is a certain spatial and temporal heterogeneity.The gravity center of the coordinated development index has been in the Southwest region.During the forecast period,the coordinated development index along this region will improve significantly,while insufficient and unbalanced development will continue.展开更多
In this paper, we first employ the complex method to deritive all meromorphic solutions of an auxiliary ordinary differential equation, and then find all meromorphic exact solutions of the modified ZK equation, modifi...In this paper, we first employ the complex method to deritive all meromorphic solutions of an auxiliary ordinary differential equation, and then find all meromorphic exact solutions of the modified ZK equation, modified KdV equation, nonlinear Klein-Gordon equation and modified BBM equation. Our work shows that there exist some classes of rational solutions wr,2 (z) and simple periodic solutions ws,1 (z) which are new and are not degenerated successively to by the elliptic function solutions.展开更多
Purpose: The process of scientific literature use can be regarded as that of knowledge transfer. With the help of the knowledge transfer theory and data from scientific literature databases, we explored the behavior o...Purpose: The process of scientific literature use can be regarded as that of knowledge transfer. With the help of the knowledge transfer theory and data from scientific literature databases, we explored the behavior of scientific researchers during their scholarly communication, and studied the factors that influenced the behavior of researchers under network environment. Design/methodology/approach: Based on the literature databases of CNKI, Elsevier Science Direct and Springer Link, we used the knowledge transfer theory to construct a model for describing the scholarly communication process, which attempts to find out factors that may influence the communication behavior of researchers. With a focus laid on the absorption behavior of researchers during the knowledge acceptance process, we defined the independent variables of the model and proposed hypotheses on the basis of a comprehensive literature study. Afterwards, college students were invited to participate in a questionnaire survey, which was designed to prove our research model and hypotheses.Findings: Our results showed that during the scholarly communication, it is not the professional knowledge, but the ability and willingness for knowledge acceptance, organizations’ importance and internal atmosphere as well as knowledge authority and relevance that have played a positive significant role in the knowledge transfer performance. In addition, our distance indicators showed that knowledge distance and knowledge transfer performance have significant negative correlations. Research limitations: This study is mainly based on a questionnaire survey of college students, which may limit the generalization of our research results. In addition, more resource types need be considered for further studies.Practical implications: Under network environment, scholarly communication performance based on knowledge transfer theory could greatly contribute to the enrichment of the contentof the knowledge transfer theory, and stretch out the range of the field. In addition, our result could help commercial scientific database providers to learn more about the users’ needs, which would not only benefit both scientific communities and content providers, but also promote scholarly communication effectively. Originality/value: Compared with existing researches which mainly emphasized the model construction of scholarly communication, our study focused the knowledge relevance during the scholarly communication and influence factors that impacted on the performance of knowledge acceptance under the network environment, which could provide helpful guides for further studies.展开更多
In recent years,China has developed rapidly in terms of natural gas.Driven by regional economic integration,a regional natural gas market composed of neighboring provinces and cities has taken shape gradually,and it t...In recent years,China has developed rapidly in terms of natural gas.Driven by regional economic integration,a regional natural gas market composed of neighboring provinces and cities has taken shape gradually,and it tends to grow toward the same direction in policy formulation,resource coordination,facility construction and market expansion.Based on the factors such as geographical location,economic conditions and natural gas consumption,this thesis tends to conduct a horizontal comparative analysis on the economic development conditions,natural gas consumption characteristics and natural gas pipeline network density of the three regions with obvious regional integration feature in China.Then according to LMDI,four core indicators,namely economic growth effect,energy intensity effect,energy structure effect,and substitution effect are selected.The thesis is expected to explore the contribution of different indicators to the growth of natural gas consumption in these three different regions.According to the results,it can be concluded that the driving factors of natural gas consumption differ greatly among regions.Specifically speaking,the more developed the economy is,the greater the contribution of the energy substitution effect to natural gas consumption will be,and the contribution of the economic growth effect to natural gas consumption will be smaller.Despite that the contribution of energy intensity in different regions shows slight difference,the energy structure contributes the least effect,which further explains the current differences in China’s natural gas consumption characteristics and the reasons behind.展开更多
This purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the research situation and the development model of the E-commerce finance. This article takes the cross-border cooperation in finance between banks and E-comm...This purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the research situation and the development model of the E-commerce finance. This article takes the cross-border cooperation in finance between banks and E-commerce companies. This paper introduces three development models of E-commerce finance. Banks set up their own E-commerce platform. The banks take advantage of E-commerce platform. The E-commerce companies run financial business. The theoretical findings reported in this paper pave the way for embarking on the promising and relevant future research.展开更多
The VIKOR method is a multi-criteria decision making aid, which employs linear normalization to offer compromise solu- tions and has been successfully applied to various group decision making problems. However, the co...The VIKOR method is a multi-criteria decision making aid, which employs linear normalization to offer compromise solu- tions and has been successfully applied to various group decision making problems. However, the conventional VIKOR techniques used to integrate group judgments and the information loss arising from defuzzification are problematic and distort final outcomes. An improved integration method, which is optimization-based, is proposed. And it can handle fuzzy criteria values and weights. The precondition for accurately defuzzifying triangular fuzzy num- bers is identified. Several effective defuzzification procedures are proposed to improve the extant VIKOR, and a comprehensive evaluation framework is offered to aid multi-criteria group decision making. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the practicability of the proposed method.展开更多
The accuracy of predicting the Producer Price Index(PPI)plays an indispensable role in government economic work.However,it is difficult to forecast the PPI.In our research,we first propose an unprecedented hybrid mode...The accuracy of predicting the Producer Price Index(PPI)plays an indispensable role in government economic work.However,it is difficult to forecast the PPI.In our research,we first propose an unprecedented hybrid model based on fuzzy information granulation that integrates the GA-SVR and ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model)models.The fuzzy-information-granulation-based GA-SVR-ARIMA hybrid model is intended to deal with the problem of imprecision in PPI estimation.The proposed model adopts the fuzzy information-granulation algorithm to pre-classification-process monthly training samples of the PPI,and produced three different sequences of fuzzy information granules,whose Support Vector Regression(SVR)machine forecast models were separately established for their Genetic Algorithm(GA)optimization parameters.Finally,the residual errors of the GA-SVR model were rectified through ARIMA modeling,and the PPI estimate was reached.Research shows that the PPI value predicted by this hybrid model is more accurate than that predicted by other models,including ARIMA,GRNN,and GA-SVR,following several comparative experiments.Research also indicates the precision and validation of the PPI prediction of the hybrid model and demonstrates that the model has consistent ability to leverage the forecasting advantage of GA-SVR in non-linear space and of ARIMA in linear space.展开更多
The investment risk management of the existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO cannot be separated from the scientific risk measurement and evaluation. The investment risk assessment is the basis of...The investment risk management of the existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO cannot be separated from the scientific risk measurement and evaluation. The investment risk assessment is the basis of investment decision and project implementation. Based on the content analysis and balance of evaluation principle of investment risk evaluation on the existing building energy-saving renovation project, we set up three levels of existing building energy-saving renovation project investment risk evaluation index system, use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the quantitative process, get the scientific assessment of the investment risk of existing building energy-saving renovation project, and support the investment risk response strategy and control measures of existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO.展开更多
The heterogeneity of coalbed methane(CBM) resources was not taken into account when the current indiscriminate subsidy policy was developed. In it, limited subsidy funds are given first to high-quality resources and e...The heterogeneity of coalbed methane(CBM) resources was not taken into account when the current indiscriminate subsidy policy was developed. In it, limited subsidy funds are given first to high-quality resources and even to subsidize profitable projects. Thus, the policy has had less than the intended effect in improving CBM production. To implement a new type of differential subsidy, it is necessary to grade the CBM resources, as will be discussed in this paper. After the factors affecting the resources value are systemically examined, sorted and merged, the relationship between the key factors and economic value is analyzed by an engineering economics method, and the production profile type, peak production(or stable production) and buried depth are used as grading factors. The production profile type is used to categorize, and peak production and buried depth are used to grade resources within the same category. The grading method is as follows: use subsidy levels at the economic critical point(NPV = 0) to identify the grades of resources, and determine the combination of peak production and buried depth for different resources grades base on indifference curves drawn according to the relationship between the economic value and peak production and buried depth.展开更多
Industrial clusters which create competitive advantage are new trends in industry development. Establishing innovatory clusters in city suburbs which provide better environments for cluster development in return will ...Industrial clusters which create competitive advantage are new trends in industry development. Establishing innovatory clusters in city suburbs which provide better environments for cluster development in return will greatly accelerate the development of suburbs. Thus there are reciprocal interactions between industrial clusters and city suburbs development. The relations and some suggestions about how to plan industrial clusters in suburbs were given.展开更多
Economic modeling that yields practical value must cater for effects caused by exogenous variables. AutoRegressive eXogenous approach (ARX) has been widely used in regional economic studies. Instrumental Variable Meth...Economic modeling that yields practical value must cater for effects caused by exogenous variables. AutoRegressive eXogenous approach (ARX) has been widely used in regional economic studies. Instrumental Variable Method is regarded as a preferential method to parametric estimation in ARX modeling. However, traditional instrumental variable methods can only handle single variable which has limited its capability. This paper presents an extended instrumental variable method (EIVM) which is based on multiple variables. This provides the capability of taking into account of exogenous variables and reflects better the economic activities. A case study is conducted, which illustrates the application of the EIVM in modeling Northeastern economy in China.展开更多
There is uncertainty in the electricity price of spot electricity market,which makes load aggregators undertake price risks for their agent users.In order to allow load aggregators to reduce the spot market price risk...There is uncertainty in the electricity price of spot electricity market,which makes load aggregators undertake price risks for their agent users.In order to allow load aggregators to reduce the spot market price risk,scholars have proposed many solutions,such as improving the declaration decision-making model,signing power mutual insurance contracts,and adding energy storage and mobilizing demand-side resources to respond.In terms of demand side,calling flexible demand-side resources can be considered as a key solution.The user’s power consumption rights(PCRs)are core contents of the demand-side resources.However,there have been few studies on the pricing of PCR contracts and transaction decisions to solve the problem of price forecast deviation and to manage the uncertainty of spot market prices.In addition,in traditional PCR contracts,PCRs are mostly priced using a single price mechanism,that is,the power user is compensated for part of the electricity that was interrupted or reduced in power supply.However,some power users might engage in speculative behaviours under this mechanism.Further,for load aggregators,their price risk avoidance ability has not substantially improved.As a financial derivative,options can solve the above problems.In this article,firstly,the option method is used to build an option pricing optimization model for power consumption right contracts that can calculate the optimal option premium and strike price of option contracts of power consumption rights.Secondly,from the perspective of power users and load aggregators,a simulation model of power consumption right transaction decision-making is constructed.The results of calculation examples show that(1)Under the model in this article,the pricing of option contracts for power consumption rights with better risk aversion capabilities than traditional compensation contracts can be obtained.(2)The decision to sell or purchase the power consumption rights will converge at respective highvalue periods,and option contracts will expedite the process.(3)Option contracts can significantly reduce the loss caused by the uncertainty of spot electricity prices for load aggregators without reducing users’willingness to sell power consumption rights.展开更多
Background:Left-behind children are more inclined to generate psychological problems relative to non-leftbehind children,thus how to rehabilitate their health psychology and promote the psychological health developmen...Background:Left-behind children are more inclined to generate psychological problems relative to non-leftbehind children,thus how to rehabilitate their health psychology and promote the psychological health development of this special disadvantaged group in healthcare settings should be paid more attention to.Objective:This paper attempts to present a social intervention approach and explore its impact on the rehabilitation of rural leftbehind children’s psychological problems in healthcare settings.Methods:This study firstly designed a social intervention program based on the health psychology theory and the generation causes of left-behind children’s psychological problems,and then three groups were applied to test the effectiveness of the program with comparison analysis.Results:Compared with the control left-behind children(group 2),the left-behind children in the experimental group 1 had positive changes in learning anxiety,physical symptoms,anxiety about people,loneliness tendency,self-blame tendency,allergy tendency,terror tendency and impulse tendency.And their mental health can be rehabilitated to the level of non-left-behind children in group 3.Conclusion:This study revealed positive effects of specially designed social intervention program on the rehabilitation of left-behind children’s psychological problems in healthcare settings.The results have both theoretical and practical implications.展开更多
The development of existing building energy saving reconstruction market depends on the interaction among service market, capital market and technology market. Analysis of the characteristics of both building energy-s...The development of existing building energy saving reconstruction market depends on the interaction among service market, capital market and technology market. Analysis of the characteristics of both building energy-saving service market, capital market and technology market, and analysis on the role of existing building energy saving reconstruction market development in energy conservation and emission reduction development strategy, energy-saving transformation policy implementation and promotion of other industries landing, will be conducive to energy-saving renovation of existing buildings market cultivation and development.展开更多
This paper analyzes the government control of building energy efficiency in China from the aspects of policies and regulations, technical standards, pilot demonstration projects and economic means, and expounds the ch...This paper analyzes the government control of building energy efficiency in China from the aspects of policies and regulations, technical standards, pilot demonstration projects and economic means, and expounds the characteristics and problems of government regulation practice in China. It is found that the government regulation of building energy conservation in our country has some problems, such as imperfect system, weak incentive policy, imperfect management system, and the lack of public participation. Through the deep analysis of the existing problems, it is pointed out that the fundamental reason for the poor operation of China's building energy efficiency market lies in the lack of understanding of the building energy efficiency market, the lack of government administrative functions and the weak consciousness of the main body.展开更多
Due to the incurable characteristics of osteogenesis imperfecta,health management plays a crucial role for children in healthy growth,independent life and integrating into society.This paper summarizes three dimension...Due to the incurable characteristics of osteogenesis imperfecta,health management plays a crucial role for children in healthy growth,independent life and integrating into society.This paper summarizes three dimensions of "biology-psychology-society",which summarize the research progress for health management in children with osteogenesis imperfecta.In the dimension of biology,the management on diet and complications about children is relatively definite,but more experiments are still needed in order to find out the appropriate values for the using doses of bisphosphonate and treatment time.Additionally,there is a lack of tools to assess the painful degree in children and sports management methods with different types of children with osteogenesis imperfecta nowadays.In the dimension of psychology,it is found that children with osteogenesis imperfecta,their families and carers are all expected to maintain a good state of mind.In the social dimension,we have known the need of children and their families,but their supporting systems are still expected to be improved through practice.展开更多
The computational unified set model (CUSM) as the latest progress of Unified Set theory is introduced in this paper. The model combines unified set theory, information granule, complex adaptive system and cognitive sc...The computational unified set model (CUSM) as the latest progress of Unified Set theory is introduced in this paper. The model combines unified set theory, information granule, complex adaptive system and cognitive science to present a new approach to simulate the cognition of human beings that can be viewed as the evolutionary process through the automatic learning from data sets. The information granule, which is the unit of cognition in CUSM, can be synthesized and created by the basic operators. It also can form the granule network by linking with other granules. With the learning from database, the system can evolve under the pressure of selection. As the adaptive results, fuzzy sets, vague sets and rough sets, etc can emerge out spontaneously. The CUSM answers the question of the origin of the uncertainties in thinking process described by unified set theory, that is due to the emergent properties of a holistic system of multiple cognitive units. And also the CUSM creates a dynamic model that can adapt to the environment. As a result, the “closed world” limitation in machine learning may be broken. The paper also discusses the applications of CUSM in rules discovery, problem solving, clustering analysis and data mining etc. The main features of the model comparing with the classical approaches toward those problems are its adaptability, flexibility and robustness but not accuracy.展开更多
New energy development is essential to achieving carbon peaks and neutrality and promoting green technological innovation.Identifying the causal relationship between new energy demonstration city construction and gree...New energy development is essential to achieving carbon peaks and neutrality and promoting green technological innovation.Identifying the causal relationship between new energy demonstration city construction and green technological innovation is crucial for the expansion and promotion of new energy demonstration cities.In this study,we take the construction of new energy demonstration cities as a quasi-natural experiment,study their impact on green technological innovation using difference-indifference(DID),and conduct a robustness test using DID after propensity score matching(PSM-DID).The research results indicate the following:First,energy structure optimization can significantly improve the level of urban green technological innovation(this result was shown to be valid using PSM-DID and other tests involving the effects of placebo and instrumental variables).Second,new energy demonstration city construction mainly improves the level of urban green technological innovation through technology research and development,the improvement of the industrial innovation environment,and the promotion of environmental performance.Third,the impact of energy structure optimization on green technological innovation has regional,financial,and economic development heterogeneity.Finally,new energy demonstration city policy affects the flow of capital,labor,technology,and other production factors to pilot areas according to new energy demonstration city policy,forming a“siphon effect”.The carbon reduction effect of new energy demonstration city construction is greater than its pollution reduction effect.Given the results of the study,policy recommendations to promote the expansion of new energy demonstration cities are proposed.展开更多
This research measures enterprise digitalization as the breadth and depth of digital technology application within the organization,the business and the industrial chain and explains the influence of digitalization on...This research measures enterprise digitalization as the breadth and depth of digital technology application within the organization,the business and the industrial chain and explains the influence of digitalization on the macroeconomy.展开更多
Increased global competition and demand for greater product variety result in the emergence of dynamic supply chain,which need to be co-operated without sacrificing their flexibility.Traditional application systems su...Increased global competition and demand for greater product variety result in the emergence of dynamic supply chain,which need to be co-operated without sacrificing their flexibility.Traditional application systems such as ERP,lack the autonomy and flexibility required by dynamic network.EDI is costly and EDI interfaces miss the decision values and logistic control required for supply chain management.Given the limitations of EDI application and traditional application system,this paper is aimed at explo...展开更多
基金supported by the Hebei Province Cultural and Artistic Science Planning and Tourism Research Project[Grant No.HB22-ZD002].
文摘Carbon peak and carbon neutrality(dual-carbon)are important targets for the international response to climate change.The Silk Road Economic Belt is a strategic resource region and is important for future ecological environment and tourism development.Based on the“dual-carbon”targets,the Single index quantification,Multiple index synthesis,and Poly-criteria integration evaluation model were used in this study to measure the coordinated development index of the ecological environment,public service,and tourism economy along the Silk Road Economic Belt and to analyze its spatial and temporal evolution.Further,it explores the dynamic evolution and development trend of the three systems using the Kernel Density and Grey Markov Prediction Model.The results show that the coordinated development index along this region needs to be improved during the study period.Furthermore,the coordinated development index of the Southwest region is relatively higher than that of the Northwest region.From the development trend of the three systems,all of them develop in a stable manner;however,the tourism economy system is easily affected by external disturbances.The coordinated development index of the three systems changes dynamically and tends to be in a good state of coordination.There is a certain spatial and temporal heterogeneity.The gravity center of the coordinated development index has been in the Southwest region.During the forecast period,the coordinated development index along this region will improve significantly,while insufficient and unbalanced development will continue.
基金supported by the NSFC(11271090)NSF of Guangdong(S2012010010121)
文摘In this paper, we first employ the complex method to deritive all meromorphic solutions of an auxiliary ordinary differential equation, and then find all meromorphic exact solutions of the modified ZK equation, modified KdV equation, nonlinear Klein-Gordon equation and modified BBM equation. Our work shows that there exist some classes of rational solutions wr,2 (z) and simple periodic solutions ws,1 (z) which are new and are not degenerated successively to by the elliptic function solutions.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No:71373124)Assemble Technology Infrastructure Projects(Grant No.QTQNJ20121QB04)
文摘Purpose: The process of scientific literature use can be regarded as that of knowledge transfer. With the help of the knowledge transfer theory and data from scientific literature databases, we explored the behavior of scientific researchers during their scholarly communication, and studied the factors that influenced the behavior of researchers under network environment. Design/methodology/approach: Based on the literature databases of CNKI, Elsevier Science Direct and Springer Link, we used the knowledge transfer theory to construct a model for describing the scholarly communication process, which attempts to find out factors that may influence the communication behavior of researchers. With a focus laid on the absorption behavior of researchers during the knowledge acceptance process, we defined the independent variables of the model and proposed hypotheses on the basis of a comprehensive literature study. Afterwards, college students were invited to participate in a questionnaire survey, which was designed to prove our research model and hypotheses.Findings: Our results showed that during the scholarly communication, it is not the professional knowledge, but the ability and willingness for knowledge acceptance, organizations’ importance and internal atmosphere as well as knowledge authority and relevance that have played a positive significant role in the knowledge transfer performance. In addition, our distance indicators showed that knowledge distance and knowledge transfer performance have significant negative correlations. Research limitations: This study is mainly based on a questionnaire survey of college students, which may limit the generalization of our research results. In addition, more resource types need be considered for further studies.Practical implications: Under network environment, scholarly communication performance based on knowledge transfer theory could greatly contribute to the enrichment of the contentof the knowledge transfer theory, and stretch out the range of the field. In addition, our result could help commercial scientific database providers to learn more about the users’ needs, which would not only benefit both scientific communities and content providers, but also promote scholarly communication effectively. Originality/value: Compared with existing researches which mainly emphasized the model construction of scholarly communication, our study focused the knowledge relevance during the scholarly communication and influence factors that impacted on the performance of knowledge acceptance under the network environment, which could provide helpful guides for further studies.
文摘In recent years,China has developed rapidly in terms of natural gas.Driven by regional economic integration,a regional natural gas market composed of neighboring provinces and cities has taken shape gradually,and it tends to grow toward the same direction in policy formulation,resource coordination,facility construction and market expansion.Based on the factors such as geographical location,economic conditions and natural gas consumption,this thesis tends to conduct a horizontal comparative analysis on the economic development conditions,natural gas consumption characteristics and natural gas pipeline network density of the three regions with obvious regional integration feature in China.Then according to LMDI,four core indicators,namely economic growth effect,energy intensity effect,energy structure effect,and substitution effect are selected.The thesis is expected to explore the contribution of different indicators to the growth of natural gas consumption in these three different regions.According to the results,it can be concluded that the driving factors of natural gas consumption differ greatly among regions.Specifically speaking,the more developed the economy is,the greater the contribution of the energy substitution effect to natural gas consumption will be,and the contribution of the economic growth effect to natural gas consumption will be smaller.Despite that the contribution of energy intensity in different regions shows slight difference,the energy structure contributes the least effect,which further explains the current differences in China’s natural gas consumption characteristics and the reasons behind.
文摘This purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the research situation and the development model of the E-commerce finance. This article takes the cross-border cooperation in finance between banks and E-commerce companies. This paper introduces three development models of E-commerce finance. Banks set up their own E-commerce platform. The banks take advantage of E-commerce platform. The E-commerce companies run financial business. The theoretical findings reported in this paper pave the way for embarking on the promising and relevant future research.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71271116)
文摘The VIKOR method is a multi-criteria decision making aid, which employs linear normalization to offer compromise solu- tions and has been successfully applied to various group decision making problems. However, the conventional VIKOR techniques used to integrate group judgments and the information loss arising from defuzzification are problematic and distort final outcomes. An improved integration method, which is optimization-based, is proposed. And it can handle fuzzy criteria values and weights. The precondition for accurately defuzzifying triangular fuzzy num- bers is identified. Several effective defuzzification procedures are proposed to improve the extant VIKOR, and a comprehensive evaluation framework is offered to aid multi-criteria group decision making. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the practicability of the proposed method.
基金This work was supported by Hainan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China[2018CXTD333,617048]The National Natural Science Foundation of China[61762033,61702539]+1 种基金Hainan University Doctor Start Fund Project[kyqd1328]Hainan University Youth Fund Project[qnjj1444].
文摘The accuracy of predicting the Producer Price Index(PPI)plays an indispensable role in government economic work.However,it is difficult to forecast the PPI.In our research,we first propose an unprecedented hybrid model based on fuzzy information granulation that integrates the GA-SVR and ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model)models.The fuzzy-information-granulation-based GA-SVR-ARIMA hybrid model is intended to deal with the problem of imprecision in PPI estimation.The proposed model adopts the fuzzy information-granulation algorithm to pre-classification-process monthly training samples of the PPI,and produced three different sequences of fuzzy information granules,whose Support Vector Regression(SVR)machine forecast models were separately established for their Genetic Algorithm(GA)optimization parameters.Finally,the residual errors of the GA-SVR model were rectified through ARIMA modeling,and the PPI estimate was reached.Research shows that the PPI value predicted by this hybrid model is more accurate than that predicted by other models,including ARIMA,GRNN,and GA-SVR,following several comparative experiments.Research also indicates the precision and validation of the PPI prediction of the hybrid model and demonstrates that the model has consistent ability to leverage the forecasting advantage of GA-SVR in non-linear space and of ARIMA in linear space.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71573188)the Soft Science Research Project of Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development (Grant No. 2013-R1-14)Tianjin Social Sciences Planning Post-funded Projects (Grant No. TJGLHQ1403)
文摘The investment risk management of the existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO cannot be separated from the scientific risk measurement and evaluation. The investment risk assessment is the basis of investment decision and project implementation. Based on the content analysis and balance of evaluation principle of investment risk evaluation on the existing building energy-saving renovation project, we set up three levels of existing building energy-saving renovation project investment risk evaluation index system, use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the quantitative process, get the scientific assessment of the investment risk of existing building energy-saving renovation project, and support the investment risk response strategy and control measures of existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO.
基金Financial support from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (No. 2016ZX05042-002-004)Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum, Beijing (No. 2462015YQ0718)
文摘The heterogeneity of coalbed methane(CBM) resources was not taken into account when the current indiscriminate subsidy policy was developed. In it, limited subsidy funds are given first to high-quality resources and even to subsidize profitable projects. Thus, the policy has had less than the intended effect in improving CBM production. To implement a new type of differential subsidy, it is necessary to grade the CBM resources, as will be discussed in this paper. After the factors affecting the resources value are systemically examined, sorted and merged, the relationship between the key factors and economic value is analyzed by an engineering economics method, and the production profile type, peak production(or stable production) and buried depth are used as grading factors. The production profile type is used to categorize, and peak production and buried depth are used to grade resources within the same category. The grading method is as follows: use subsidy levels at the economic critical point(NPV = 0) to identify the grades of resources, and determine the combination of peak production and buried depth for different resources grades base on indifference curves drawn according to the relationship between the economic value and peak production and buried depth.
基金Shanghai Science and Technology Development Foundation(No2005015)
文摘Industrial clusters which create competitive advantage are new trends in industry development. Establishing innovatory clusters in city suburbs which provide better environments for cluster development in return will greatly accelerate the development of suburbs. Thus there are reciprocal interactions between industrial clusters and city suburbs development. The relations and some suggestions about how to plan industrial clusters in suburbs were given.
文摘Economic modeling that yields practical value must cater for effects caused by exogenous variables. AutoRegressive eXogenous approach (ARX) has been widely used in regional economic studies. Instrumental Variable Method is regarded as a preferential method to parametric estimation in ARX modeling. However, traditional instrumental variable methods can only handle single variable which has limited its capability. This paper presents an extended instrumental variable method (EIVM) which is based on multiple variables. This provides the capability of taking into account of exogenous variables and reflects better the economic activities. A case study is conducted, which illustrates the application of the EIVM in modeling Northeastern economy in China.
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,China(Grant No.72174062)the 2018 Key Projects of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research,Ministry of Education,China(Grant No.18JZD032).The completion of this articlewas accomplished with the help of many teachers and classmates.We sincerely thank them for their help and guidance.
文摘There is uncertainty in the electricity price of spot electricity market,which makes load aggregators undertake price risks for their agent users.In order to allow load aggregators to reduce the spot market price risk,scholars have proposed many solutions,such as improving the declaration decision-making model,signing power mutual insurance contracts,and adding energy storage and mobilizing demand-side resources to respond.In terms of demand side,calling flexible demand-side resources can be considered as a key solution.The user’s power consumption rights(PCRs)are core contents of the demand-side resources.However,there have been few studies on the pricing of PCR contracts and transaction decisions to solve the problem of price forecast deviation and to manage the uncertainty of spot market prices.In addition,in traditional PCR contracts,PCRs are mostly priced using a single price mechanism,that is,the power user is compensated for part of the electricity that was interrupted or reduced in power supply.However,some power users might engage in speculative behaviours under this mechanism.Further,for load aggregators,their price risk avoidance ability has not substantially improved.As a financial derivative,options can solve the above problems.In this article,firstly,the option method is used to build an option pricing optimization model for power consumption right contracts that can calculate the optimal option premium and strike price of option contracts of power consumption rights.Secondly,from the perspective of power users and load aggregators,a simulation model of power consumption right transaction decision-making is constructed.The results of calculation examples show that(1)Under the model in this article,the pricing of option contracts for power consumption rights with better risk aversion capabilities than traditional compensation contracts can be obtained.(2)The decision to sell or purchase the power consumption rights will converge at respective highvalue periods,and option contracts will expedite the process.(3)Option contracts can significantly reduce the loss caused by the uncertainty of spot electricity prices for load aggregators without reducing users’willingness to sell power consumption rights.
基金supported by the Research Launch Project of Chengdu University:Exploring A Social Tourism Approach of China’s Rural Revitalization(Grant No.2281921039)the Key Projects of the National Social Science Fund in 2020:the Medium and Long-term Effect Assessment of China’s Poverty Combination Policy(Grant No.20AJY013).
文摘Background:Left-behind children are more inclined to generate psychological problems relative to non-leftbehind children,thus how to rehabilitate their health psychology and promote the psychological health development of this special disadvantaged group in healthcare settings should be paid more attention to.Objective:This paper attempts to present a social intervention approach and explore its impact on the rehabilitation of rural leftbehind children’s psychological problems in healthcare settings.Methods:This study firstly designed a social intervention program based on the health psychology theory and the generation causes of left-behind children’s psychological problems,and then three groups were applied to test the effectiveness of the program with comparison analysis.Results:Compared with the control left-behind children(group 2),the left-behind children in the experimental group 1 had positive changes in learning anxiety,physical symptoms,anxiety about people,loneliness tendency,self-blame tendency,allergy tendency,terror tendency and impulse tendency.And their mental health can be rehabilitated to the level of non-left-behind children in group 3.Conclusion:This study revealed positive effects of specially designed social intervention program on the rehabilitation of left-behind children’s psychological problems in healthcare settings.The results have both theoretical and practical implications.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71573188)the Soft Science Research Project of Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development (Grant No. 2013-R1-14)Tianjin Social Sciences Planning Post-funded Projects (Grant No. TJGLHQ1403)
文摘The development of existing building energy saving reconstruction market depends on the interaction among service market, capital market and technology market. Analysis of the characteristics of both building energy-saving service market, capital market and technology market, and analysis on the role of existing building energy saving reconstruction market development in energy conservation and emission reduction development strategy, energy-saving transformation policy implementation and promotion of other industries landing, will be conducive to energy-saving renovation of existing buildings market cultivation and development.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71573188)the Soft Science Research Project of Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (Grant No. 2013-R1-14)Tianjin Social Sciences Planning Post-funded Projects (Grant No. TJGLHQ1403)
文摘This paper analyzes the government control of building energy efficiency in China from the aspects of policies and regulations, technical standards, pilot demonstration projects and economic means, and expounds the characteristics and problems of government regulation practice in China. It is found that the government regulation of building energy conservation in our country has some problems, such as imperfect system, weak incentive policy, imperfect management system, and the lack of public participation. Through the deep analysis of the existing problems, it is pointed out that the fundamental reason for the poor operation of China's building energy efficiency market lies in the lack of understanding of the building energy efficiency market, the lack of government administrative functions and the weak consciousness of the main body.
基金supported by China Association for Science and Technology Graduate Science Communication Ability Promotion Project(Grant kxyjskpxm2019024 and kxyjskpxm2019055)Key Research Base of Philosophy and Social Sciences in Shaanxi Province,Shaanxi Health Culture Research Center Projects(Grand JKWH2019-Q19).
文摘Due to the incurable characteristics of osteogenesis imperfecta,health management plays a crucial role for children in healthy growth,independent life and integrating into society.This paper summarizes three dimensions of "biology-psychology-society",which summarize the research progress for health management in children with osteogenesis imperfecta.In the dimension of biology,the management on diet and complications about children is relatively definite,but more experiments are still needed in order to find out the appropriate values for the using doses of bisphosphonate and treatment time.Additionally,there is a lack of tools to assess the painful degree in children and sports management methods with different types of children with osteogenesis imperfecta nowadays.In the dimension of psychology,it is found that children with osteogenesis imperfecta,their families and carers are all expected to maintain a good state of mind.In the social dimension,we have known the need of children and their families,but their supporting systems are still expected to be improved through practice.
文摘The computational unified set model (CUSM) as the latest progress of Unified Set theory is introduced in this paper. The model combines unified set theory, information granule, complex adaptive system and cognitive science to present a new approach to simulate the cognition of human beings that can be viewed as the evolutionary process through the automatic learning from data sets. The information granule, which is the unit of cognition in CUSM, can be synthesized and created by the basic operators. It also can form the granule network by linking with other granules. With the learning from database, the system can evolve under the pressure of selection. As the adaptive results, fuzzy sets, vague sets and rough sets, etc can emerge out spontaneously. The CUSM answers the question of the origin of the uncertainties in thinking process described by unified set theory, that is due to the emergent properties of a holistic system of multiple cognitive units. And also the CUSM creates a dynamic model that can adapt to the environment. As a result, the “closed world” limitation in machine learning may be broken. The paper also discusses the applications of CUSM in rules discovery, problem solving, clustering analysis and data mining etc. The main features of the model comparing with the classical approaches toward those problems are its adaptability, flexibility and robustness but not accuracy.
基金the National Social Science Fund of China(22CJL004).
文摘New energy development is essential to achieving carbon peaks and neutrality and promoting green technological innovation.Identifying the causal relationship between new energy demonstration city construction and green technological innovation is crucial for the expansion and promotion of new energy demonstration cities.In this study,we take the construction of new energy demonstration cities as a quasi-natural experiment,study their impact on green technological innovation using difference-indifference(DID),and conduct a robustness test using DID after propensity score matching(PSM-DID).The research results indicate the following:First,energy structure optimization can significantly improve the level of urban green technological innovation(this result was shown to be valid using PSM-DID and other tests involving the effects of placebo and instrumental variables).Second,new energy demonstration city construction mainly improves the level of urban green technological innovation through technology research and development,the improvement of the industrial innovation environment,and the promotion of environmental performance.Third,the impact of energy structure optimization on green technological innovation has regional,financial,and economic development heterogeneity.Finally,new energy demonstration city policy affects the flow of capital,labor,technology,and other production factors to pilot areas according to new energy demonstration city policy,forming a“siphon effect”.The carbon reduction effect of new energy demonstration city construction is greater than its pollution reduction effect.Given the results of the study,policy recommendations to promote the expansion of new energy demonstration cities are proposed.
文摘This research measures enterprise digitalization as the breadth and depth of digital technology application within the organization,the business and the industrial chain and explains the influence of digitalization on the macroeconomy.
文摘Increased global competition and demand for greater product variety result in the emergence of dynamic supply chain,which need to be co-operated without sacrificing their flexibility.Traditional application systems such as ERP,lack the autonomy and flexibility required by dynamic network.EDI is costly and EDI interfaces miss the decision values and logistic control required for supply chain management.Given the limitations of EDI application and traditional application system,this paper is aimed at explo...