Coseismic deformation and fault slip distribution of the 2023 M_(W)7.8 and M_(W)7.6 earthquakes in Türkiye

On February 6,2023,a devastating earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.8 struck the town of Pazarcik in south-central Türkiye,followed by another powerful earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.6 that struck the nearby city of Elbistan 9 h later.To study the characteristics of surface deformation caused by this event and the influence of fault rupture,this study calculated the static coseismic deformation of 56 stations and dynamic displacement waveforms of 15 stations using data from the Turkish national fixed global navigation satellite system(GNSS)network.A maximum static coseismic displacement of 0.38 m for the M_(W)7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake was observed at station ANTE,36 km from the epicenter,and a maximum dynamic coseismic displacement of 4.4 m for the M_(W)7.6 Elbistan earthquake was observed at station EKZ1,5 km from the epicenter.The rupture-slip distributions of the two earthquakes were inverted using GNSS coseismic deformation as a constraint.The results showed that the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture segment was distinct and exposed on the ground,resulting in significant rupture slip along the Amanos and Pazarcik fault segments of the East Anatolian Fault.The maximum slip in the Pazarcik fault segment was 10.7 m,and rupture occurred at depths of 0–15 km.In the Cardak fault region,the Elbistan earthquake caused significant ruptures at depths of 0–12 km,with the largest amount of slip reaching 11.6 m.The Coulomb stress change caused by the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture along the Cardak fault segment was approximately 2 bars,and the area of increased Coulomb stress corresponded to the subsequent rupture region of the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Thus,it is likely that the M_(W)7.8 earthquake triggered or promoted the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Based on the cumulative stress impact of the M_(W)7.8 and M_(W)7.6 events,the southwestern segment of the East Anatolian Fault,specifically the Amanos fault segment,experienced a Coulomb rupture stress change exceeding 2 bars,warranting further attention to assess its future seismic hazard risk.

Dynamic simulation insights into friction weakening effect on rapid long-runout landslides:A case study of the Yigong landslide in the Tibetan Plateau,China

This study proposed a novel friction law dependent on velocity,displacement and normal stress for kinematic analysis of runout process of rapid landslides.The well-known Yigong landslide occurring in the Tibetan Plateau of China was employed as the case,and the derived dynamic friction formula was included into the numerical simulation based on Particle Flow Code.Results showed that the friction decreased quickly from 0.64(the peak)to 0.1(the stead value)during the 5s-period after the sliding initiation,which explained the behavior of rapid movement of the landslide.The monitored balls set at different sections of the mass showed similar variation characteritics regarding the velocity,namely evident increase at the initial phase of the movement,followed by a fluctuation phase and then a stopping one.The peak velocity was more than 100 m/s and most particles had low velocities at 300s after the landslide initiation.The spreading distance of the landslide was calculated at the two-dimension(profile)and three-dimension scale,respectively.Compared with the simulation result without considering friction weakening effect,our results indicated a max distance of about 10 km from the initial unstable position,which fit better with the actual situation.

Deformation,structure and potential hazard of a landslide based on InSAR in Banbar county,Xizang(Tibet)

The Tibetan Plateau is characterized by complex geological conditions and a relatively fragile ecological environment.In recent years,there has been continuous development and increased human activity in the Tibetan Plateau region,leading to a rising risk of landslides.The landslide in Banbar County,Xizang(Tibet),have been perturbed by ongoing disturbances from human engineering activities,making it susceptible to instability and displaying distinct features.In this study,small baseline subset synthetic aperture radar interferometry(SBAS-InSAR)technology is used to obtain the Line of Sight(LOS)deformation velocity field in the study area,and then the slope-orientation deformation field of the landslide is obtained according to the spatial geometric relationship between the satellite’s LOS direction and the landslide.Subsequently,the landslide thickness is inverted by applying the mass conservation criterion.The results show that the movement area of the landslide is about 6.57×10^(4)m^(2),and the landslide volume is about 1.45×10^(6)m^(3).The maximum estimated thickness and average thickness of the landslide are 39 m and 22 m,respectively.The thickness estimation results align with the findings from on-site investigation,indicating the applicability of this method to large-scale earth slides.The deformation rate of the landslide exhibits a notable correlation with temperature variations,with rainfall playing a supportive role in the deformation process and displaying a certain lag.Human activities exert the most substantial influence on the spatial heterogeneity of landslide deformation,leading to the direct impact of several prominent deformation areas due to human interventions.Simultaneously,utilizing the long short-term memory(LSTM)model to predict landslide displacement,and the forecast results demonstrate the effectiveness of the LSTM model in predicting landslides that are in a continuous development and movement phase.The landslide is still active,and based on the spatial heterogeneity of landslide deformation,new recommendations have been proposed for the future management of the landslide in order to mitigate potential hazards associated with landslide instability.

Multistate transition and coupled solid-liquid modeling of motion process of long-runout landslide

The recognition,repetition and prediction of the post-failure motion process of long-runout landslides are key scientific problems in the prevention and mitigation of geological disasters.In this study,a new numerical method involving LPF3D based on a multialgorithm and multiconstitutive model was proposed to simulate long-runout landslides with high precision and efficiency.The following results were obtained:(a)The motion process of landslides showed a steric effect with mobility,including gradual disintegration and spreading.The sliding mass can be divided into three states(dense,dilute and ultradilute)in the motion process,which can be solved by three dynamic regimes(friction,collision,and inertial);(b)Coupling simulation between the solid grain and liquid phases was achieved,focusing on drag force influences;(c)Different algorithms and constitutive models were employed in phase-state simulations.The volume fraction is an important indicator to distinguish different state types and solid‒liquid ratios.The flume experimental results were favorably validated against long-runout landslide case data;and(d)In this method,matched dynamic numerical modeling was developed to better capture the realistic motion process of long-runout landslides,and the advantages of continuum media and discrete media were combined to improve the computational accuracy and efficiency.This new method can reflect the realistic physical and mechanical processes in long-runout landslide motion and provide a suitable method for risk assessment and pre-failure prediction.

Spatial distribution characteristics and influence factor analysis of landslides——case study of the Hanwang area in Qinba Mountains

The geological hazards of landslides in Hanwang Town, Ziyang County, Ankang City, Shaanxi Province, have emerged. Yet, the current understanding of the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of landslides in this area remains unclear. Combining the results of remote sensing interpretation and field investigation, seven influencing factors, namely, elevation, slope direction, slope gradient, distance from rivers, distance from faults, engineering geologic lithology, and distance from roads, are selected for the study. The distribution characteristics of landslides in each influencing factor and the influence of the resolution of the Digital Elevation Model(DEM) on the results are statistically and analytically analyzed. Furthermore, two highrisk landslides within the study area were subjected to comprehensive analysis, integrating the findings from drilling and other field investigations in order to examine their deformation mechanisms. Based on this analysis,the following conclusions were derived:(1) 34 landslides in the study area, mainly small earth landslides, with a distribution density of 0.42/km~2, threatening 414 people and property of about 55.87 million Yuan.(2)The landslides in the study area easily occur in the <400 m elevation range;the landslides are developed in all slope directions, the gradient is mainly concentrated in the range of 10°–40°, the distribution density of the landslides is higher in the closer distance from the river and the faults(0–200 m), the landslide-prone strata are mainly the softer and weaker metamorphic rocks, and the landslides are mainly around roads.(3) The resolution of the DEM should be selected based on the specific conditions of the study area, the requirements of the investigation, and the scale of the landslide. Opting for an appropriate DEM resolution is advantageous for understanding the patterns of landslides and conducting risk assessments in the region.(4) The Zhengjiabian landslide is a traction Landslide. The landslide body is a binary structure of gravel soil and slate weathering layer, and the damage process can be divided into three stages:(1)damage to the leading edge and stress release,(2)continuous creep and cracking,(3)rainfall infiltration and damage. The predominant slope material in the Brickyard landslide comprises clay, and the landslide is triggered by a combination of the traction effect resulting from the excavation at the slope's base and the nudging effect caused by the stacking load of the brick factory. Additionally, the Brickyard landslide exhibits persistent creep deformation. The study results provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation in the Hanwang Township area.

A novel binary effective medium model to describe the prepeak stressstrain relationship of combined bodies of rock-like material and rock

Combined bodies of rock-like material and rock are widely encountered in geotechnical engineering,such as tunnels and mines.The existing theoretical models describing the stress-strain relationship of a combined body lack a binary feature.Based on effective medium theory,this paper presents the governing equation of the“elastic modulus”for combined and single bodies under triaxial compressive tests.A binary effective medium model is then established.Based on the compressive experiment of concretegranite combined bodies,the feasibility of determining the stress threshold based on crack axial strain is discussed,and the model is verified.The model is further extended to coal-rock combined bodies of more diverse types,and the variation laws of the compressive mechanical parameters are then discussed.The results show that the fitting accuracy of the model with the experimental curves of the concretegranite combined bodies and various types of coal-rock combined bodies are over 95%.The crack axial strain method can replace the crack volumetric strain method,which clarifies the physical meanings of the model parameters.The variation laws of matrix parameters and crack parameters are discussed in depth and are expected to be more widely used in geotechnical engineering.

Soil erosion and its causes in high-filling body:A case study of a valley area on the Loess Plateau,China

Large-scale land consolidation projects(LCPs)have been carried out on the Loess Plateau to increase the area of agriculture land.The newly created land is prone to soil erosion under the effects of water and gravity.Taking a typical high-filling body(HFB)formed by LCPs in Yan’an,China as the subject,this study comprehensively investigated the types and causes of soil erosion with multiple methods of field investigation,on-site monitoring and laboratory tests.Results showed that the HFB presented a composite pattern of soil erosion with multiple types mainly including underground erosion,mixed water-gravity erosion,seepage erosion,and scouring erosion.The type of erosion varied spatially in different parts of the HFB depending on the dominant factors,mainly including the groundwater state,rainfall,runoff,gravity action,topography,and soil erodibility.The underground erosion mainly occurred at the positions with higher groundwater level and larger hydraulic gradient,while scouring erosion mainly occurred at the positions with extensive interactions of surface runoff,channel slope gradient and soil properties.And near the leading edge of the top of the slope,a band of mixed watergravity erosion occurred owing to the effects of water and gravity.In addition,nearly saturated soils at the toe of HFB displayed groundwater exfiltration and slope-face slumping.Based on our findings on the causes and variation of soil erosion for the HFB,we proposed the following erosion prevention and control measures to protect the LCPs on the Loess Plateau:to construct drainage ditches and blind ditches to form a complete drainage system,plant alfalfa on the top platform to increase rainfall interception and reduce surface runoff,set seepage ditches and plant deep-rooted plants at the toe of the slope to improve slope toe stability,monitor groundwater level and slope deformation to learn the erosion dynamics and slope stability,and optimize the geometry of HFB such as the slope gradient and slope steps to reduce soil erosion.

Crack mechanism of ground fissures in loess layer of Fenwei Basin, China

The Fenwei Basin, covered by loess, experiences severe ground fissure disasters. These disasters disrupt the continuity of the loess and pose significant threats to engineering construction safety along transportation routes. Nevertheless, the crack characteristics and the influence zone of ground fissures in the loess layer remain inadequately investigated. To effectively prevent and control ground fissure disasters, physical model tests and the PFC(particle flow code) numerical simulation method are used to investigate the crack mechanism of buried ground fissures in the loess layer. The results show that there are two main cracks in the layer profile, which have a Y-shape morphology. As the dip angle of the preset cracks increased from 60° to 90°, the main deformation zone at the surface gradually shifted towards the footwall. The process of crack propagation from depth to surface is divided into five stages. Additionally, the results confirm the accuracy of the width of the rupture zone d2in the footwall calculated by the cantilever beam theory. These findings can offer theoretical guidance for determining the avoidance distance of ground fissures in loess regions, as well as for implementing disaster prevention and corresponding control measures for various stages of buried ground fissure propagation.

Structural features in the mid-southern section of the Kyushu–Palau Ridge based on satellite altimetry gravity anomaly

The Kyushu–Palau Ridge(KPR),an anti-S-shaped submarine highland at the center of the Philippine Sea Plate(PSP),is considered the residual arc of the Izu–Bonin–Mariana Island Arc,which retains key information about the cessation of the Western Philippine Basin(WPB)expansion and the Parece Vela Basin(PVB)breakup.Herein,using the new generation of satellite altimetry gravity data,high-precision seafloor topography data,and newly acquired ship-borne gravity data,the topographic and gravity characteristics of the KPR mid-southern section and adjacent region are depicted.The distribution characteristics of the faults were delineated using the normalized vertical derivative–total horizontal derivative method(NVDR-THDR)and the minimum curvature potential field separation method.The Moho depth and crustal thickness were inverted using the rapid inversion method for a double-interface model with depth constraints.Based on these results,the crust structure features in the KPR mid-southern section,and the“triangular”structure geological significance where the KPR and Central Basin Rift(CBR)of the WPB intersect are interpreted.The KPR crustal thickness is approximately 6–16 km,with a distinct discontinuity that is slightly thicker than the normal oceanic crust.The KPR mid-southern section crust structure was divided into four segments(S1–S4)from north to south,formed by the CBR eastward extension joint action and clockwise rotation of the PVB expansion axis and the Mindanao fault zone blocking effect.

Critical embedment depth of a rigid retaining wall against overturning in unsaturated soils considering intermediate principal stress and strength nonlinearity

The overturning stability is vital for the retaining wall design of foundation pits, where the surrounding soils are usually unsaturated due to water draining. Moreover, the intermediate principal stress does affect the unsaturated soil strength; meanwhile, the relationship between the unsaturated soil strength and matric suction is nonlinear. This work is to present closed-form equations of critical embedment depth for a rigid retaining wall against overturning by means of moment equilibrium. Matric suction is considered to be distributed uniformly and linearly with depth. The unified shear strength formulation for unsaturated soils under the plane strain condition is adopted to characterize the intermediate principal stress effect, and strength nonlinearity is described by a hyperbolic model of suction angle. The result obtained is orderly series solutions rather than one specific answer; thus, it has wide theoretical significance and good applicability. The validity of this present work is demonstrated by comparing it with a lower bound solution. The traditional overturning designs for rigid retaining walls, in which the saturated soil mechanics neglecting matric suction or the unsaturated soil mechanics based on the Mohr-Coulomb criterion are employed, are special cases of the proposed result. Parametric studies about the intermediate principal stress, matric suction and its distributions along with two strength nonlinearity methods on a new defined critical buried coefficient are discussed.

Optimizing the frequency ratio method for landslide susceptibility assessment: A case study of the Caiyuan Basin in the southeast mountainous area of China

Bivariate statistical analysis of data-driven approaches is widely used for landslide susceptibility assessment, and the frequency ratio(FR) method is one of the most popular. However, the results of such assessments are dominated by the number of classes and bounds of landslide-related causative factors, and the optimal assessment is unknown. This paper optimizes the frequency ratio method as an example of bivariate statistical analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping based on a case study of the Caiyuan Basin, a region with frequent landslides, which is located in the southeast coastal mountainous area of China. A landslide inventory map containing a total of 1425 landslides(polygons) was produced, in which 70% of the landslides were selected for training purposes, and the remaining were used for validationpurposes. All datasets were resampled to the same 5 m × 5 m/pixel resolution. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves of the susceptibility maps were obtained based on different combinations of dominating parameters, and the maximum value of the areas under the ROC curves(AUCs) as well as the corresponding optimal parameter was identified with an automatic searching algorithm. The results showed that the landslide susceptibility maps obtained using optimal parameters displayed a significant increase in the prediction AUC compared with those values obtained using stochastic parameters. The results also showed that one parameter named bin width has a dominant influence on the optimum. In practice, this paper is expected to benefit the assessment of landslide susceptibility by providing an easy-to-use tool. The proposed automatic approach provides a way to optimize the frequency ratio method or other bivariate statistical methods, which can furtherfacilitate comparisons and choices between different methods for landslide susceptibility assessment.

Dynamic response characteristics of dry and watersaturated schist under impact loading

Many geological engineering hazards are closely related to the dynamic mechanical properties of rock materials.However,most existing studies on the dynamic mechanical properties of rock materials were conducted on the hard rocks such as sandstone,granite,limestone,and marble,whereas soft rocks,such as schist,are less studied.Therefore,in this study,a series of triaxial impact tests were conducted on dry and saturated schist by employing a modified triaxial split Hopkinson pressure bar system to reveal the coupling effects of water,strain rate,and triaxial confining pressure on the mechanical properties of schist.The results show that schist is a type of watersensitive rock and the stress-strain curve of saturated schist has apparent ductility.The effects of strain rate on dynamic strain,deformation modulus and peak stress were analyzed.The results also show that the dynamic peak stress is affected by the combined softening effect and viscous effect of water under impact loading.Finally,it was found that the failure mode of schist belongs to typical axial tensile failure under uniaxial impact tests,and shear failure is the main failure mode under triaxial impact tests.With the increase in confining pressure,the failure modes of schist change from tensile failure to shear failure.This research can provide useful parameters for geological engineering hazard prevention in mountain areas.

Study on System of Faults in the Gulf of Mexico and Adjacent Region based on Gravity Data

In the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent landmasses,faults are very complex,and their distribution is closely related to plate tectonics,ocean-land boundary,and former structure.The plane position of the faults can be identified by the maximum characteristic of the vertical derivative of the normalized vertical derivative of the total horizontal derivative(NVDR-THDR)of the Bouguer gravity anomaly.The apparent depth of the faults is inverted by the Bouguer gravity anomaly curvature property.Based on tectonic evolutionary processes and the plane distribution and apparent depth characteristics of the faults,a complete fault system for the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent areas has been established,including 102 faults.The apparent depths of 33 first-class faults are 16-20 km and for 69 second-class faults are 12-16 km.The F_(1-2)and F_(1-3)subduction fault zones are two caused by the subduction of the Cocos Plate into the old Yucatan and Chorti landmasses;F_(1-11)and F_(1-12)fault zones extend westward to the coast of Guatemala and do not extend into the continent;F_(1-17)and F_(1-20)faults,which control the boundary of the oceanic crust,do not extend southward into the continent.The fault system,which radiates in a"fan-shaped"structure as a whole,unfolds to the northeast.Faults of different nature and sizes are distributed in the Cocos Plate subduction zone,Continental,Gulf of Mexico,Yucatan old landmass and Caribbean Plate in NW,NNW,NS,NE and NEE directions.In the Gulf of Mexico region,the fault system is a comprehensive reflection of former tectonic movements,such as plate movement,drift of old landmasses and expansion of oceanic crusts.The first-class faults control the plate and ocean-continental boundaries.The second-class faults are subordinate to the first-class faults or related to the distribution of different sedimentary layers.

Impact of a retrogressive thaw slump on surrounding vegetation communities in the Fenghuoshan mountains,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Under global warming,permafrost around the world is experiencing degradation which is especially so on the Third Pole,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),China.Retrogressive thaw slump(RTS)is one of the thermokarst features caused by rapid degradation of ice rich permafrost,which transforms landforms and threatens infrastructures,and even affects the terrestrial carbon cycle.In this work,vegetation communities surrounding a RTS in the Fenghuoshan Mountains of the interior portion of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have been investigated to examine the impact from RTS.This investigation indicates that the occurrence of RTS influences the vegetation community by altering their habitats,especially the soil water content,which forces the vegetation community to evolve in order to adapt to the alterations.In the interior part of RTS where it has been disturbed tremendously,alterations have produced a wider niche and richer plant species.This favors species of a wet environment in a habitat where it was a relatively dry environment of alpine steppe prior to the occurrence of RTS.This study adds to limited observations regarding the impact of RTS to vegetation community on the QTP and helps us to reach a broader understanding of the effects of permafrost degradation as well as global warming.

The Nature of the West Junggar Basement:Evidence from Magmatic and Detrital Zircon U-Pb Ages

Objective West Junggar,which is located in the southwestern segment of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt(CAOB),is an important tectonic unit in the evaluation and examination of the largest continental accretion on Earth,playing a significant role in understanding the tectonic evolution and crustal growth within the orogenic belt(Xiao and Santosh,2014).However,no precise record of ancient continental blocks is found in West Junggar,owing to the extensive coverage and later structural reconstructions.

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

Review of collapse triggering mechanism of collapsible soils due towetting

Loess soil deposits are widely distributed in arid and semi-arid regions and constitute about 10% of land area of the world.These soils typically have a loose honeycomb-type meta-stable structure that is susceptible to a large reduction in total volume or collapse upon wetting.Collapse characteristics contribute to various problems to infrastructures that are constructed on loess soils.For this reason,collapse triggering mechanism for loess soils has been of significant interest for researchers and practitioners all over the world.This paper aims at providing a state-of-the-art review on collapse mechanism with special reference to loess soil deposits.The collapse mechanism studies are summarized under three different categories,i.e.traditional approaches,microstructure approach,and soil mechanics-based approaches.The traditional and microstructure approaches for interpreting the collapse behavior are comprehensively summarized and critically reviewed based on the experimental results from the literature.The soil mechanics-based approaches proposed based on the experimental results of both compacted soils and natural loess soils are reviewed highlighting their strengths and limitations for estimating the collapse behavior.Simpler soil mechanics-based approaches with less parameters or parameters that are easy-to-determine from conventional tests are suggested for future research to better understand the collapse behavior of natural loess soils.Such studies would be more valuable for use in conventional geotechnical engineering practice applications.

Petrogenesis of Early Carboniferous Alkaline Basalt from the Wusun Mountain:Implications for Tectonic Evolution of the Western Yining Block,NW China

Late Paleozoic volcanic rocks are well exposed in the Yining Block,NW China,and are predominately composed of andesites,rhyolites and volcaniclastics as well as minor basalts.Study of the petrology,whole-rock geochemistry and zircon U-Pb dating for the Early Carboniferous alkaline basalts from Wusun Mountain,western Yining Block,constrains their petrogenesis and tectonic evolution.The alkaline basalts consist mainly of plagioclases,mostly albite and labradorite,as well as clinopyroxenes and olivines;zircon U-Pb dating indicates their formation at ca.350 Ma.Geochemically,the basaltic samples have low SiO_(2)contents,and high TiO_(2),Al_(2)O_(3)and alkaline contents,coupled with high Na_(2)O/K_(2)O ratios,displaying an alkaline basalt affinity.They show remarkable LILE enrichment and HFSE depletion.Meantime,these samples have relatively high TFe_(2)O_(3),MgO,and Mg#values as well as Ni and Cr,relatively high Sm/Yb and U/Th,suggesting origination from a mantle source metasomatized by slab fluids.They formed in a transitional tectonic setting from arc to intraplate,showing a typical affinity of back-arc basin basalts.The alkaline basalts were likely generated in a nascent back-arc extension setting resulting from slab rollback of the southern Tianshan oceanic lithosphere.A bidirectional subduction model seems more reasonable for the evolution of the southern Tianshan Ocean.These new data will provide a new tectonic model for Late Paleozoic tectonic evolution of the western Yining Block.

An hourly shallow landslide warning model developed by combining automatic landslide spatial susceptibility and temporal rainfall threshold predictions

Landslide warning models are important for mitigating landslide risks.The rainfall threshold model is the most widely used early warning model for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.Recently,the rainfall threshold model has been coupled with the landslide susceptibility(LS)model to improve the accuracy of early warnings in the spatial domain.Existing coupled models,designed based on a matrix including predefined rainfall thresholds and susceptibility levels,have been used to determine the warning level.These predefined classifications inevitably have subjective rainfall thresholds and susceptibility levels,thus affecting the probability distribution information and eventually influencing the reliability of the produced early warning.In this paper,we propose a novel landslide warning model in which the temporal and spatial probabilities of landslides are coupled without predefining the classified levels.The temporal probability of landslides is obtained from the probability distribution of rainfall intensities that triggered historical landslides.The spatial probability of landslides is then obtained from the susceptibility probability distribution.A case study shows that the proposed probability-coupled model can successfully provide hourly warning results before the occurrence of a landslide.Although all three models successfully predicted the landslide,the probability-coupled model produced a warning zone comprising the fewest grid cells.Quantitatively,the probabilitycoupled model produced only 39 grid cells in the warning zone,while the rainfall threshold model and the matrix-coupled model produced warning zones including 81 and 49 grid cells,respectively.The proposed model is also applicable to other regions affected by rainfall-induced landslides and is thus expected to be useful for practical landslide risk management.

The stress change of the major activity faults in the Weihe Graben after the Wenchuan earthquake

The seismicity of small earthquakes in the Weihe Graben has changed after the Wenchuan earthquake.In detail,the seismicity around the Qishan-Mazhao fault in the western Weihe Graben decreased,while the seismicity in Gaoling and Jingyang Counties in the middle portion of the Weihe Graben and that in the area between Hancheng and Yuncheng Cities in eastern Weihe Graben increased.In this paper,the stress loading on the major activity faults in the Weihe Graben induced by the Wenchuan earthquake is discussed based on the Coulomb stress theory.The results show that the Wenchuan earthquake has exerted an unloading effect in the western Weihe Graben and a loading effect in the middle and eastern Weihe Graben.The spatially varied Coulomb stress is consistent with the seismicity distribution,indicating that the seismicity change is closely associated with the stress loading caused by the Wenchuan earthquake.