Risk assessment of oil and gas investment environment in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments, it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout. This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions. On this basis, game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights, and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021. Finally, the GM(1,1) model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025. In conclusion, oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk, and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results. The research findings may provide scientific decisionmaking recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.

Challenges and opportunities for battery health estimation:Bridging laboratory research and real-world applications

Addressing climate change demands a significant shift away from fossil fuels,with sectors like electricity and transportation relying heavily on renewable energy.Integral to this transition are energy storage systems,notably lithium-ion batteries.Over time,these batteries degrade,affecting their efficiency and posing safety risks.Monitoring and predicting battery aging is essential,especially estimating its state of health(SOH).Various SOH estimation methods exist,from traditional model-based approaches to machine learning approaches.

Policy and Management of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality:A Literature Review

The vision of reaching a carbon peak and achieving carbon neutrality is guiding the low-carbon transition of China’s socioeconomic system.Currently,a research gap remains in the existing literature in terms of studies that systematically identify opportunities to achieve carbon neutrality.To address this gap,this study comprehensively collates and investigates 1105 published research studies regarding carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In doing so,the principles of development in this area are quantitively analyzed from a space–time perspective.At the same time,this study traces shifts and alterations in research hotspots.This systematic review summarizes the priorities and standpoints of key industries on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Furthermore,with an emphasis on five key management science topics,the scientific concerns and strategic demands for these two carbon emission-reduction goals are clarified.The paper ends with theoretical insights on and practical countermeasures for actions,priority tasks,and policy measures that will enable China to achieve a carbon-neutral future.This study provides a complete picture of the research status on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,as well as the research directions worth investigating in this field,which are crucial to the formulation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies.

Socio-economic and energy-environmental impacts of technological change on China's agricultural development under the carbon neutrality strategy

Promoting agricultural modernisation through technological change is an important strategy for China.China's carbon neutrality strategy is leading to systemic socio-economic changes that could exacerbate the uncertainty of agricultural development.Therefore,applying a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,this study characterises the agricultural sector in detail,introducing endogenous technological change proxied by research and development(R&D)to assess the impact of different technological change scenarios on agricultural development under the carbon neutrality target.The results show that allocating carbon revenue for R&D inputs can mitigate the significant negative impact of achieving carbon neutrality on knowledge capital and production in agricultural sectors.Overall,using carbon revenue only for R&D input in crop sectors has the optimal effect on increasing the agricultural sectors'knowledge capital,improving crop production and profit,reducing crop external dependence and promoting the synergistic reduction of carbon and pollutant emissions.However,this scenario has the largest negative impact on macro-economics and household welfare.In contrast,allocating carbon revenue to promote technological change in broader non-energy sectors or both crops and non-energy sectors can effectively mitigate negative socio-economic impacts,but the positive impact on agricultural development is minimal.These findings provide practical insights for the rational use of carbon revenue to expand agricultural R&D investment and ensure balanced agricultural and economic development under the carbon neutrality target.

Trade Benefits and Environmental Costs of GVCS: A Case Study of the BRICS

As the international trading system has developed with the division of Global value Chains (GVCS), the export trade of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) has grown rapidly. The resulting growth of carbon emissions has drawn wide attention from the international community, necessitating the comparison of the trade benefits and environmental costs of the BRICS participation in GVCS. Based on the Eora database, this paper constructs a decomposition framework for the calculation of export value-added and embodied carbon, based on a multi-region input-output (MRIO) model. The trade benefits and environmental costs paid by the BRICS’ total exports from 1990 to 2015 were measured and the imbalance was analyzed, along with the causes. The results show that the main value-added and carbon embodied in the BRICS’ exports originate from their own countries, and the domestic value-added content of the BRICS’ exports decreased while the foreign value-added content increased.

Impact of carbon disclosure on debt financing costs

Creditors,such as banks,often use disclosed environmental information to assess a company’s environmental risk and ensure the safety of debt funds.Consequently,carbon disclosures have become an important consideration for creditors when making investments.This study explores the relationship between carbon disclosure and debt financing costs using data on listed companies from 2008 to 2019.The results show that carbon disclosure can reduce the debt financing costs of enterprises,and that this influence is more significant for private companies than for state-owned enterprises.Instrumental variables and Propensity Score Matching(PSM)were used to evaluate the robustness of negative relationships.Furthermore,carbon disclosure has a more significant impact on debt costs with less environmental supervision pressure,weak residents’environmental awareness,and weak product market competition.These findings provide guidance for companies’carbon information disclosure and support the establishment of official carbon disclosure standards.

Provoking Buying Behaviors Amid Crises:Unfolding the Underlying Mechanisms of Psychological Impairments

Crises in the past have caused devastating,long-lasting impacts on the global economy.The after-effects always bring some dynamic and rigorous challenges for businesses and governments.Such challenges have always been a point of discussion for scholars.The recent COVID-19 pandemic emaciated the global economy,leaving everyone mired in uncertainty,fear,and psychological impairments.One of the headwind features utilized by consumers during pandemic was panic buying(PB),which must be explored in various contexts for policymakers and practitioners.To address this gap,this study deployed a moderated mediation mechanism,integrating the health belief model(HBM)and competitive arousal theory(CAT)to excavate the notions underlying PB with the intrusion of evolved real-time psychological disorders:intolerance of uncertainty(IU)and cyberchondria(CYC).The study was conducted as a natural experiment in a South Asian developing economy using online surveys.It found that health beliefs—perceived severity(PSV)and perceived susceptibility(PSC)—positively impact perceived arousal(PA),which causes PB,and that PA has a sturdy mediator role.Moreover,in the relationship between health beliefs and arousal,the different psychological disorders were found to have significant moderating roles The study findings can help mitigate risk uncertainties and panic situations and thus contribute to consumers’wellbeing.

Rice variety improvement and the contribution of foreign germplasms in China

The introduction and use of foreign germplasms have played an important role in the improvement of crop varieties in China. Based on published materials and scientist interviews, we collected data on the sown area, morphological characteristics, and pedigree of the popular rice varieties grown in the 15 major rice production provinces and 1 autonomous region in China, from 1982 to 2011. Results showed that China＇s scientists developed the largest number of rice varieties worldwide, and that rice yield potential and grain quality have substantiality improved during the studied period. In contrast, resistance of newly-released varieties to diseases and insect pests has decreased since the 1990s. Germplasms from the Interna- tional Rice Research Institute （IRRI） and from Japan have contributed 16.4 and 11.2% of genetic materials to China＇s rice varieties developed between 1982 and 2011, respectively. While IRRI＇s materials contributed to the improvement of yield potential, growth duration, and blast and bacterial blight resistance, Japanese materials contributed to the improvement of grain quality. Materials from other countries contributed to the improvement of resistance to diseases and insect pests, particularly to rice blast disease, brown planthoppers, white-backed planthoppers, and striped stem borers.

Productivity effect and overuse of pesticide in crop production in China

Chinese farmers are often accused of overusing pesticides that play a crucial role in enhancing crop yield by reducing losses to crop pests. Pesticide overuse has caused a series of negative health and environmental externalities. This paper quantiifes the productivity effect and the optimal amount of pesticides in rice, cotton and maize production in China from the economic perspective. Using survey data col ected in 2012 and 2013, both Cobb-Douglas and Weibul damage control speciifcations are used to estimate the production function. Results show that pesticides have statistical y signiifcant pro-ductivity effect on crop yield. On the condition of Weibul damage control speciifcations, the marginal products of 1 kg of the active ingredients of pesticides for rice, cotton and maize are 71.06, 22.73 and 98.45 kg, respectively. However, 57, 64 and 17%of the actual amount of pesticides are overused for rice, cotton and maize, respectively. Moreover, the productivity effect of pesticides would be overestimated using Cobb-Douglas speciifcation without incorporating a damage control agent.

Divisia Decomposition Method and Its Application to Changes of Net Oil Import Intensity

The existing oil import dependence index cannot exactly measure the economic cost or scales, and it is difficult to describe the economical aspect of oil security. To measure the foreign dependence of one country's economy and reflect its oil economic security, this paper defines the net oil import intensity as the ratio of net oil import cost to GDP. By using Divisia Index Decomposition, the change of net oil import intensity in five industrialized countries and five newly industrialized countries during 1971—2010 is decomposed into five factors: oil price, oil intensity, oil self-sufficiency, domestic price level and exchange rate. The result shows that the dominating factors are oil price and oil intensity; moreover, the newly industrialized countries have higher net oil import intensity than industrialized countries.

Equivalency and unbiasedness of grey prediction models

In order to deeply research the structure discrepancy and modeling mechanism among different grey prediction models, the equivalence and unbiasedness of grey prediction models are analyzed and verified. The results show that all the grey prediction models that are strictly derived from x^（0）（k） ＋az^（1）（k） = b have the identical model structure and simulation precision. Moreover, the unbiased simulation for the homogeneous exponential sequence can be accomplished. However, the models derived from dx^（1）/dt ＋ ax^（1）= b are only close to those derived from x^（0）（k） ＋ az^（1）（k） = b provided that ｜a｜ has to satisfy｜a｜ 0.1; neither could the unbiased simulation for the homogeneous exponential sequence be achieved. The above conclusions are proved and verified through some theorems and examples.

Energy Efficiency and Emissions Reduction Potential of China's Industrial Sector

Based on the total-factor energy efficiency framework,this paper calculates China's industrial energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential from 2000 to 2009 by utilizing the directional distance function and data envelopment analysis.The empirical results show that:China's industrial overall energy efficiency is relatively lower while the emis-sions reduction potential is relatively greater,given the optimum production frontier.Significant indus-trial disparities of energy efficiency and emissions reduction potential exist.Energy efficiency and emis-sions reduction potential significantly show different tendencies of industrial dynamic variation.This paper suggests the Chinese government impose differential carbon taxes,flexibly utilize carbon market mecha-nism,strengthen energy-saving technological R&D,promote the utilization of renewable energy,and strengthen environmental supervision and regulation,so as to improve China's industrial energy efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions.

Impact of meteorological conditions and PM2.5 on the onset of acute aortic dissection in monsoonal climate

ObjectiveTo 在 monsoonal climate.MethodsA 在尖锐大动脉的解剖的发作上调查气象学的条件和下午2.5的影响线性回归分析在 monsoonal 气候被执行为气象学的因素的影响上的四年的经期的流行病学的调查(最小的温度，吝啬的温度，最大的温度，平均每日的表面温度，天温度范围，相对湿度，吝啬的风速度，和气压)并且下午2.5 co 气象学的变量和首相2.5集中从北京地区性的气候中心和人们中华民国的环境保护的部在一个每日的基础上被检索网站，并且尖锐大动脉的解剖的每日的发生在紧急情况和北京 Anzhen Hospital.ResultsDuring 的批评照顾中心从临床的数据分析和报导系统被检索学习时期(从2011年1月到2014年12月)， 1164 个病人作为 h 被识别分别地，在春天和秋天的相应发生是 0.96 和 1.00 它比那显著地高在夏天和冬季。在一天内的尖锐大动脉的解剖的发生能被预言由日报用下列线性多重回归的温度范围(数据终端就绪) 当模特儿：尖锐大动脉的解剖 = 的发生 0.543 + 0.025 mstring 腱首先与开的腱 str 近似地被收获？？

Formalization and Verification of Business Process Modeling Based on UML and Petri Nets

In order to provide a quantitative analysis and verification method for activity diagrams based business process modeling, a formal definition of activity diagrams is introduced. And the basic requirements for activity diagrams based business process models are proposed. Furthermore, the standardized transformation technique between business process models and basic Petri nets is presented and the analysis method for the soundness and well-structured properties of business processes is introduced.

Optimization of total harmonic current distortion and torque pulsation reduction in high-power induction motors using genetic algorithms

This paper presents a powerful application of genetic algorithm (GA) for the minimization of the total harmonic current distortion (THCD) in high-power induction motors fed by voltage source inverters, based on an approximate harmonic model. That is, having defined a desired fundamental output voltage, optimal pulse patterns (switching angles) are determined to produce the fundamental output voltage while minimizing the THCD. The complete results for the two cases of three and five switching instants in the first quarter period of pulse width modulation (PWM) waveform are presented. Presence of harmonics in the stator excitation leads to a pulsing-torque component. Considering the fact that if the pulsing-torques are at low frequencies, they can cause troublesome speed fluctuations, shaft fatigue, and unsatisfactory performance in the feedback control system, the 5th, 7th, 11th, and 13th current harmonics (in the case of five switching angles) are constrained at some pre-specified values, to mitigate the detrimental effects of low-frequency harmonics. At the same time, the THCD is optimized while the required fundamental output voltage is maintained.

The decoupling relationship between China’s economic growth and carbon emissions from the perspective of industrial structure

This study analyses the decoupling relationship between energy-related CO_(2) emissions and economic growth in China from 2000-2017 from the perspective of industrial structure using the LMDI method and Tapio decoupling model.The decoupling driving force was decomposed into emission,energy intensity,industrial structure,economic activity,and population factors.Studies have shown that the restructuring of China’s industries has not led to a significant increase in CO_(2) emissions.Specifically,from 2000 to 2017,China’s economic development and carbon emissions are generally in a weak decoupling state.Strong decoupling occurred from 2000 to 2001 and from 2013 to 2016.The industrial structure change has a substantial impact on the primary sector(agriculture),followed by the tertiary sector(services),while the impact on the secondary sector(industry)is negligible.The GDP contribution of the primary industry is small,but it is an indispensable guarantee for a country.With the development of agricultural mechanization and technology,human and animal power in this industry has been decreasing year by year,and large-scale planting has improved energy efficiency.The level of technology should be continuously strengthened to promote the decoupling of carbon emissions.The contribution of the secondary industry to GDP is around 40%,but the secondary industry accounts for more than 80%of CO_(2) emissions,mainly caused by the use of fossil energy.In 2017,fossil energy still accounted for about 86.2%of China’s energy consumption,so fossil energy remains the most critical energy source for China’s economic development.Coal,in turn,accounts for the largest share of fossil energy consumption.Therefore,emphasis should be placed on increasing technological innovation and conversion from fossil to non-fossil energy sources.The Chinese government considers the service industry a new engine for sustainable social and economic development.The contribution of the tertiary sector to GDP has increased from 2000 to 2017,followed by resource and environmental problems.Although the current share of CO_(2) emissions directly caused by the tertiary sector is not high,as the tertiary sector continues to grow,plans to reduce the decoupling of carbon emissions from the tertiary sector should be made in advance.

Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory and Study of Some Key Problems

As one of the most important mathematical methods, the Dempster-Shafer（D-S）evidence theory has been widely used in date fusion, risk assessment, target identification, knowledge reasoning,and other fields. This paper summarized the development and recent studies of the explanations of D-S model, evidence combination algorithms, and the improvement of the conflict during evidence combination, and also compared all explanation models,algorithms, improvements, and their applicable conditions. We are trying to provide a reference for future research and applications through this summarization.

Safety-Critical System Reliability Modeling and Their Analyses in Terms of Effects of Component Failure Modes

New models of safety-critical systems are built here. In these systems, when components fail, different defect states have different effects, hence need different ways to measure. In the models, there are two kinds of failure modes of the components： one could be called failed-safe, and the other may be named failed- dangerous In practice, the so-called failed-dangerous components may lead a system to peril. However, failed-safe components will not. Reliability and safety issues are analyzed using Ion-Channel modeling theory to get count of repairs and time duration before the system becomes dangerous. In the closing section a numerical example is presented to illustrate the results obtained in the paper.

Variations and Absolute Continuity of Set Functions on T_∞-tribe

some properties of the inclusion variation and the disjoint variation of set functions on T∞-tribe are studied in detail.The absolute continuity and singularity of set functions on T∞-tribe are discussed.The triangular norms T∞ and S∞ are considered as the operators of intersection and union between the fuzzy sets.As a result,some important conclusions about the variations and absolute continuity of set functions on T∞-tribe are obtained such as the superadditivity of inclusion variation,the relation between the variations and the equivalence proposition of absolute continuity of set functions on T∞-tribe.In addition,two small mistakes about T∞-measure are pointed out by the counterexamples and are revised.

Simulation About the Growth of Chinese Firm's Safety Management Capability

Aiming at the deficiency of exterminating measures of Chinese firm safety management, a simulation model of Chinese firm＇s safety management capability based on the organizational learning theory, in which the simulation method of system dynamics is utilized. The level variable and rate variable are designed based on the practical situation and change situation of corresponding variables of firm＇s safety management ca- pability. Simulation firms are built with accident case groups of the oil industry, chemical industry, machine industry, coal mining industry, and weapon industry. Through analyzing the simulation result, the growth law of Chinese firm＇s safety management capability is obtained as follows： the accumulating and the coupling of safety knowledge should be emphasized at the same time; the balance of learning behavior of individual, group and organization should be considered together; different types of Chinese firm should take different safety policies according to their practical situations.