Subtropical Air-Sea Interaction and Development of Central Pacific El Nio

The standard deviation of the central Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) during the period from October to February shows that the central Pacific SSTA variation is primarily due to the occurrence of the Central Pacific El Nio (CP-El Nio) and has a connection with the subtropical air-sea interaction in the northeastern Pacific. After removing the influence of the Eastern Pacific El Nio, an S-EOF analysis is conducted and the leading mode shows a clear seasonal SSTA evolving from the subtropical northeastern Pacific to the tropical central Pacific with a quasi-biennial period. The initial subtropical SSTA is generated by the wind speed decrease and surface heat flux increase due to a north Pacific anomalous cyclone. Such subtropical SSTA can further influence the establishment of the SSTA in the tropical central Pacific via the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. After established, the central equatorial Pacific SSTA can be strengthened by the zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback, and develop into CP-El Nio. However, as the thermocline feedback increases the SSTA cooling after the mature phase, the heat flux loss and the re-versed zonal advective feedback can cause the phase transition of CP-El Nio. Along with the wind stress variability, the recharge (discharge) process occurs in the central (eastern) equatorial Pacific and such a process causes the phase consistency between the thermocline depth and SST anomalies, which presents a contrast to the original recharge/discharge theory.

Cause of Extreme Heavy and Persistent Rainfall over Yangtze River in Summer 2020

Record-breaking heavy and persistent precipitation occurred over the Yangtze River Valley(YRV)in June-July(JJ)2020.An observational data analysis has indicated that the strong and persistent rainfall arose from the confluence of southerly wind anomalies to the south associated with an extremely strong anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific(WNPAC)and northeasterly anomalies to the north associated with a high-pressure anomaly over Northeast Asia.A further observational and modeling study has shown that the extremely strong WNPAC was caused by both La Niña-like SST anomaly(SSTA)forcing in the equatorial Pacific and warm SSTA forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean(IO).Different from conventional central Pacific(CP)El Niños that decay slowly,a CP El Niño in early 2020 decayed quickly and became a La Niña by early summer.This quick transition had a critical impact on the WNPAC.Meanwhile,an unusually large area of SST warming occurred in the tropical IO because a moderate interannual SSTA over the IO associated with the CP El Niño was superposed by an interdecadal/long-term trend component.Numerical sensitivity experiments have demonstrated that both the heating anomaly in the IO and the heating anomaly in the tropical Pacific contributed to the formation and maintenance of the WNPAC.The persistent high-pressure anomaly in Northeast Asia was part of a stationary Rossby wave train in the midlatitudes,driven by combined heating anomalies over India,the tropical eastern Pacific,and the tropical Atlantic.

Development of in-situ Marine Sediment Geo-Acoustic Measurement System with Real-Time and Multi Frequencies (the Second Generation)

Compared with the laboratory acoustic measurement of sediment samples, the in-situ acoustic measurement in marine sediment is considered more accurate and rehable, because it covers all of the surrounding environment factors and avoids the disturbance during the course of sampling and transporting of sediment samples. A new multi-frequency in-situ geoacoustic measurement system （MFIS^AMS） has been developed. The system can provide acoustic vdocity （compressional wave） and attenuation profiles of the uppermost 4 - 8 m sediment in the seafloor. It consists of 8 channels with 12 frequencies （multi-frequencies） and 0.5 - 2 MHz sampling rates. The data collected can be transmiuted in real-time. Associated with inclinometer and altimeter, it can provide the data for depth emendation. Acoustic velocity and attenuation data have been obtained from two in-situ experiments conducted in the Hangzhou Bay.

Numerical Study of Boundary Layer Structure and Rainfall after Landfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013): Sensitivity to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

The boundary layer structure and related heavy rainfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013), which made landfall in Zhejiang Province, China, are studied using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with a focus on the sensitivity of the simulation to the planetary boundary layer parameterization. Two groups of experiments—one with the same surface layer scheme and including the Yonsei University(YSU), Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino Level 2.5,and Bougeault and Lacarrere schemes; and the other with different surface layer schemes and including the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic′ and Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination schemes—are investigated. For the convenience of comparative analysis, the simulation with the YSU scheme is chosen as the control run because this scheme successfully reproduces the track, intensity and rainfall as a whole. The maximum deviations in the peak tangential and peak radial winds may account for 11% and 33%of those produced in the control run, respectively. Further diagnosis indicates that the vertical diffusivity is much larger in the first group, resulting in weaker vertical shear of the tangential and radial winds in the boundary layer and a deeper inflow layer therein. The precipitation discrepancies are related to the simulated track deflection and the differences in the simulated low-level convergent flow among all tests. Furthermore, the first group more efficiently transfers moisture and energy and produces a stronger ascending motion than the second, contributing to a deeper moist layer, stronger convection and greater precipitation.

Subseasonal and Synoptic Variabilities of Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin in the Summer of 2020

Summer precipitation over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in 2020 experienced a strong subseasonal and synoptic fluctuation in addition to contributing to an exceptionally large seasonal mean precipitation.The cause of this higher-frequency fluctuation is examined based on observational analyses.Apart from the continuous northward movement of the climatological mei-yu rainband,the mei-yu rainbelt in the summer of 2020 experienced multiple northward and southward swings.The cause of the swings was attributed to the subseasonal variability of southerly winds to the south and northeasterly winds to the north of the YRB.In addition,synoptic-scale variability,characterized by the eastward propagation of low-level cyclonic vorticity and precipitation anomalies,was also commonplace in the summer of 2020.While the strengthening of both the subseasonal and synoptic variabilities in the summer of 2020 was attributed to the increase of the background mean moisture,the synoptic variability was greatly affected by the subseasonal rainfall variability.As a result,both the synoptic-scale and subseasonal variabilities contributed to the north-south swings of the rainbelt.The large-scale modulations by both the seasonal mean and subseasonal anomalies provide insight regarding the optimization of issuing accurate,extended-range forecasts of extreme weather events.

Study of A Geo-Acoustic Model of Gas-Bearing Sediment and Its Application in Sediment with Low Acoustic Veloctiy

A new geo-acoustic model for gas-bearing sediment is proposed based on the work of Dvorkin and Prasad, and Biot theory. Only five geophysical parameters： sediment mineral composition, free gas saturation, tortuosity （also known as the structure factor）, permeability, and porosity, are considered in the model. A benefit of this model is that we need only five parameters instead of ten parameters in the Blot＇ s formulas for acoustic velocity and attenuation calculation. Here the model is demonstrated with the in-situ experimental data collected from the Hangzhou Bay, China. The results of this study suggest that free gas content in sediment is the most critical condition resulting in a low acoustic velocity （compressional wave）. The respective contributions of the other four parameters in the model are also discussed.

A High-resolution Simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun(2014)--Part Ⅰ:Model Verification and Surface Energetics Analysis

A 72-h high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun （2014） is performed using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model covers an initial 18-h spin-up, the 36-h rapid intensification （RI） period in the northern South China Sea, and the 18-h period of weakening after landfall. The results show that the model reproduces the track, intensity, structure of the storm, and environmental circulations reasonably well. Analysis of the surface energetics under the storm indicates that the storm＇s intensification is closely related to the net energy gain rate （eg）, defined as the difference between the energy production （PD） due to surface entropy flux and the energy dissipation （Ds） due to surface friction near the radius of maximum wind （RMW）. Before and during the RI stage, the ~：g is high, indicating sufficient energy supply for the storm to intensify. However, the Sg decreases rapidly as the storm quickly intensifies, because the Ds increases more rapidly than the PD near the RMW. By the time the storm reaches its peak intensity, the Ds is about 20% larger than the PD near the RMW, leading to a local energetics deficit under the eyewall. During the mature stage, the PD and Ds can reach a balance within a radius of 86 km from the storm center （about 2.3 times the RMW）. This implies that the local PD under the eyewall is not large enough to balance the Ds, and the radially inward energy transport from outside the eyewall must play an important role in maintaining the storm＇s intensity, as well as its intensification.

The effect of nitrogen on the compressibility and conductivity of iron at high pressure

Although nitrogen in the Earth’s interior has attracted significant attention recently,it remains the most enigmatic of the light elements in the Earth’s core.In this work,synchrotron X-ray diffraction(XRD)and electrical conductivity experiments were conducted on iron nitrides(Fe_(2)N and Fe_(4)N)in diamond anvil cells(DACs)up to about 70 GPa at ambient temperature.These results show that iron nitrides are stable up to at least 70 GPa.From the equation of state(EOS)parameters,iron nitrides are more compressible than iron carbides.Moreover,using the van der Pauw method and Wiedemann-Franz law,the electrical and thermal conductivity of samples were determined to be much lower than that of iron carbides.The conductivities of Fe_(2)N and Fe_(4)N were similar at 20–70 GPa,suggesting no evident effects by varying the N stoichiometries in iron nitrides.Iron nitrides are less dense and conductive but more compressible than carbides at 0–70 GPa.This study indicates that less nitrogen than carbon can explain geophysical phenomena in the deep Earth,such as the density deficit.

Thermoelasticity and stability of natural epidote at high pressure and high temperature:Implications for water transport during cold slab subduction

Epidote is a typical hydrous mineral in subduction zones.Here,we report a synchrotron-based single-crystal X-ray diffraction(XRD)study of natural epidote[Ca1.97Al2.15Fe0.84(SiO4)(Si2O7)O(OH)]under simultaneously high pressure-temperature(high P-T)conditions to~17.7 GPa and 700 K.No phase transition occurs over this P-T range.Using the third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state(EoS),we fitted the pressure-volume-temperature(P-V-T)data and obtained the zero-pressure bulk modulus K_(0)=138(2)GPa,its pressure derivative K'_(0)=3.0(3),the temperature derivative of the bulk modulus((∂K/∂T)P=-0.004(1)GPa/K),and the thermal expansion coefficient at 300 K(α_(0)=3.8(5)×10^(-5)K^(-1)),as the zero-pressure unit-cell volume V_(0)was fixed at 465.2(2)Å^(3)(obtained by a single-crystal XRD experiment at ambient conditions).This study reveals that the bulk moduli of epidote show nonlinear compositional dependence.By discussing the stabilization of epidote and comparing its density with those of other hydrous minerals,we find that epidote,as a significant water transporter in subduction zones,may maintain a metastable state to~14 GPa along the coldest subducting slab geotherm and promote slab subduction into the upper mantle while favoring slab stagnation above the 410 km discontinuity.Furthermore,the water released from epidote near 410 km may potentially affect the properties of the 410 km seismic discontinuity.

Preface to the Special Issue:Climate Change and Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity

Tropical cyclones(TCs) are one of the most destructive natural phenomena on Earth in terms of human-life and economic losses. It is currently a matter of prodigious public and scientific interest how TC activity has changed and will change in a warming climate. This special issue focuses on a challenging subject raised in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) report and numerous research papers.

High-Pressure Behavior of Ferromagnesite(Mg_(0.81)Fe_(0.19))CO_(3)by Synchrotron X-Ray Diffraction and Raman Spectroscopy up to 53 GPa

Ferromagnesite(Mg,Fe)CO_(3)with 20 mol%iron is a potential host mineral for carbon transport and storage in the Earth mantle.The high-pressure behavior of synthetic ferromagnesite(Mg_(0.81)Fe_(0.19))CO_(3)up to 53 GPa was investigated by synchrotron X-ray diffraction(XRD)and Raman spectroscopy.The iron bearing carbonate underwent spin transition at around 44–46 GPa accompanied by a volume collapse of 1.8%,which also demonstrated a variation in the dνi/dP slope of the Raman modes.The pressure-volume data was fitted by a third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state(BM-EoS)for the high spin phase.The best-fit K_(0)=108(1)GPa and K_(0)'=4.2(1).Combining the dνi/dP and the K_(0),the mode Grüneisen parameters of each vibrational mode(T,L,ν4 andν1)were calculated.The effects of iron concentration on the Mg_(1−x)Fe_(x)CO_(3)system related to high-pressure compressibility and vibrational properties are discussed.These results expand the knowledge of the physical properties of carbonates and provide insights to the potential deep carbon host.

On Sea Surface Roughness Parameterization and Its Effect on Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity

A new parameterization scheme of sea surface momentum roughness length for all wind regimes, including high winds, under tropical cyclone （TC） conditions is constructed based on measurements from Global Positioning System （GPS） dropsonde. It reproduces the observed regime transition, namely, an increase of the drag coefficient with an increase in wind speed up to 40 m s-1 , followed by a decrease with a further increase in wind speed. The effect of this parameterization on the structure and intensity of TCs is evaluated using a newly developed numerical model, TCM4. The results show that the final intensity is increased by 10.5% （8.9%） in the maximum surface wind speed and by 8.1 hPa （5.9 hPa） in the minimum sea surface pressure drop with （without） dissipative heating. This intensity increase is found to be due mainly to the reduced frictional dissipation in the surface layer and little to do with either the surface enthalpy flux or latent heat release in the eyewall convection. The effect of the new parameterization on the storm structure is found to be insignificant and occurs only in the inner core region with the increase in tangential winds in the eyewall and the increase in temperature anomalies in the eye. This is because the difference in drag coefficient appears only in a small area under the eyewall. Implications of the results are briefly discussed.

Typhoon Track,Intensity,and Structure:From Theory to Prediction

To improve understanding of essential aspects that influence forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs),the National Key Research and Development Program,Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China conducted a five-year project titled“Key Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes and Prediction for the Evolution of Typhoon Intensity and Structure”(KPPT).Through this project,new understandings of TC intensification,including outer rainbanddriven secondary eyewall formation and the roles of boundary layer dynamics and vertical wind shear,and improvements to TC data assimilation with integrated algorithms and adaptive localizations are achieved.To promote a breakthrough in TC intensity and structure forecasting,a new paradigm for TC evolution dynamics(i.e.,the correlations,interactions,and error propagation among the triangle of TC track,intensity,and structure)is proposed;and an era of dynamic-constrained,big-data driven,and strongly coupled data assimilation at the subkilometer scale and seamless prediction is expected.

How Frequently Will the Persistent Heavy Rainfall over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2020 Happen under Global Warming?

The middle and lower Yangtze River basin(MLYRB)suffered persistent heavy rainfall in summer 2020,with nearly continuous rainfall for about six consecutive weeks.How the likelihood of persistent heavy rainfall resembling that which occurred over the MLYRB in summer 2020(hereafter 2020PHR-like event)would change under global warming is investigated.An index that reflects maximum accumulated precipitation during a consecutive five-week period in summer(Rx35day)is introduced.This accumulated precipitation index in summer 2020 is 60%stronger than the climatology,and a statistical analysis further shows that the 2020 event is a 1-in-70-year event.The model projection results derived from the 50-member ensemble of CanESM2 and the multimodel ensemble(MME)of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event will dramatically increase under global warming.Based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff test,one-third of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that have reasonable performance in reproducing the 2020PHR-like event in their historical simulations are selected for the future projection study.The CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME results show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event under the present-day climate will be double under lower-emission scenarios(CMIP5 RCP4.5,CMIP6 SSP1-2.6,and SSP2-4.5)and 3-5 times greater under higher-emission scenarios(3.0 times for CMIP5 RCP8.5,2.9 times for CMIP6 SSP3-7.0,and 4.8 times for CMIP6 SSP5-8.5).The inter-model spread of the probability change is small,lending confidence to the projection results.The results provide a scientific reference for mitigation of and adaptation to future climate change.

Distinctive Precursory Air–Sea Signals between Regular and Super El Ni os

Statistically different precursory air–sea signals between a super and a regular El Ni no group are investigated, using observed SST and rainfall data, and oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data. The El Ni no events during 1958–2008 are first separated into two groups： a super El Ni no group（S-group） and a regular El Ni no group（R-group）. Composite analysis shows that a significantly larger SST anomaly（SSTA） tendency appears in S-group than in R-group during the onset phase[April–May（0）], when the positive SSTA is very small. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates that the tendency difference arises primarily from the difference in zonal advective feedback and the associated zonal current anomaly（u）.This is attributed to the difference in the thermocline depth anomaly（D） over the off-equatorial western Pacific prior to the onset phase, as revealed by three ocean assimilation products. Such a difference in D is caused by the difference in the wind stress curl anomaly in situ, which is mainly regulated by the anomalous SST and precipitation over the Maritime Continent and equatorial Pacific.

Pressure-Induced Topological and Structural Phase Transitions in an Antiferromagnetic Topological Insulator

Recently,natural van der Waals heterostructures of(MnBi2 Te4)m(Bi2 Te3)n have been theoretically predicted and experimentally shown to host tunable magnetic properties and topologically nontrivial surface states.We systematically investigate both the structural and electronic responses of MnBi2 Te4 and MnBi4 Te7 to external pressure.In addition to the suppression of antiferromagnetic order,MnBi2 Te4 is found to undergo a metalsemiconductor-metal transition upon compression.The resistivity of MnBi4 Te7 changes dramatically under high pressure and a non-monotonic evolution of p(T)is observed.The nontrivial topology is proved to persist before the structural phase transition observed in the high-pressure regime.We find that the bulk and surface states respond differently to pressure,which is consistent with the non-monotonic change of the resistivity.Interestingly,a pressure-induced amorphous state is observed in MnBi2 Te4,while two high-pressure phase transitions are revealed in MnBi4 Te7.Our combined theoretical and experimental research establishes MnBi2 Te4 and MnBi4 Te7 as highly tunable magnetic topological insulators,in which phase transitions and new ground states emerge upon compression.

Multi-regional observations and validation of the M_(3)ocean tide

Improved determinations of the oft-ignored third-degree ocean tides can yield better accuracy for tidal predictions,numerical model solutions,and geodesy.While only a small part of tidal range,these components can be larger at certain coastal locations due to shelf resonances and other effects.Here,we discuss observations of the M3lunar terdiurnal tide using 9-year windowed tidal harmonic analyses at 157 tide gauges compares to a global assimilation model(TPXO9v5a),with a focus on the Western Pacific and the European Shelf.TPXO9v5a does well in estimating the observed M_(3)amplitudes and phase lags in most regions,though determinations in coastal zones and in morphologically complex areas are coarse and often inaccurate.We also employ a shallow-water model(MARS)on the European Shelf,which can yield localized improvement over TPXO.In five subregions of the European Shelf,regional root-mean-squared-errors(RMSEs)are lower(and thus a better fit)at three locations for TPXO for amplitudes,and three for phase lags,with MARS simulations being a better fit in the other subregions.We also show that some locations have experienced significant long-term increases and/or decreases in the M_(3)amplitude over time,likely related to resonance changes under sea level rise(SLR)which can modulate the oceanic response to astronomical forcing.This hypothesis is explored for Europe using the MARS model by applying various sea level rise scenarios,showing that the directionality(positive or negative)of the long-term changes in M_(3)amplitudes over time match the model results for more than half of our validation stations.

Thermal Equation of State of Natural F-Rich Topaz up to 29 GPa and 750 K

Subducting oceanic sediments and crusts,originating from the Earth's surface and descending into its deep interior,are important carriers of volatiles.The volatiles have significant effects on materials cycling and the dynamic evolution of the subduction zones.A simplified Al_(2)O_(3)-SiO_(2)-H_(2)O(ASH)ternary system models the relationship of minerals in the hydrated and alumina-silica rich sedimentary layer.Topaz Al_(2)SiO_(4)(F,OH)_(2)is an important mineral in the ASH system and comprises two volatiles:H_(2)O and fluorine(F).In this study,the thermoelasticity of a natural F-rich topaz was investigated using synchrotron-based single-crystal X-ray diffraction combined with diamond anvil cells up to 29.1 GPa and 750 K.The pressure-volume-temperature data were fitted to a third-order Birch-Murnaghan Equation of state with V_(0)=343.15(7)Å3,K_(0)=166(1)GPa,K_(0)'=3.0(1),(∂K_(0)/∂T)P=-0.015(9)GPa/K andα_(0)=3.9(5)×10^(-5)K^(-1).The isothermal bulk modulus increases with the F content in topaz,and the various F contents present significant effects on its anisotropic compressibility.Our results further reveal that the isothermal bulk modulus K_(0)of the minerals in ASH system increases with density.F and H contents in hydrous minerals might greatly affect their properties(e.g.,compressibility and stability),providing more comprehensive constraints on the subduction zones.

Application of the Analogue-Based Correction of Errors Method in ENSO Prediction

In this study, a method of analogue-based correction of errors(ACE) was introduced to improve El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction produced by climate models. The ACE method is based on the hypothesis that the flow-dependent model prediction errors are to some degree similar under analogous historical climate states, and so the historical errors can be used to effectively reduce such flow-dependent errors. With this method, the unknown errors in current ENSO predictions can be empirically estimated by using the known prediction errors which are diagnosed by the same model based on historical analogue states. The authors first propose the basic idea for applying the ACE method to ENSO prediction and then establish an analogue-dynamical ENSO prediction system based on an operational climate prediction model. The authors present some experimental results which clearly show the possibility of correcting the flow-dependent errors in ENSO prediction, and thus the potential of applying the ACE method to operational ENSO prediction based on climate models.