The procedure through which the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake can be determined is reviewed in the light of the recent advances. This can be achieved by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in t...The procedure through which the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake can be determined is reviewed in the light of the recent advances. This can be achieved by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area. To apply this general procedure, we need two important elements： first, to know when we should start the analysis, i.e., set the natural time equal to zero. This is the time at which the system enters the critical stage. Second a reliable estimation of the candidate epicentral area. If geoelectrical measurements are taken and the VAN method （after the initials of the three researchers Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos）is applied, both these elements become available upon the recording of a precursory Seismic Electric Signals （SES） activity, because its initiation marks the time when the system enters the critical stage, and in addition the SES data enable the determination of the epicentral area of the impending mainshock. On the other hand, if geoelectrical data are lacking, we make use of the following two recent findings by means of natural time analysis： First, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity in a large area exhibit a minimum a few months before a major earthquake almost simultaneously with the initiation of an SES activity. Second, a spatiotemporal study of this minimum unveils an estimate of the epicentral area of the impending major earthquake. Two examples are given that refer to the strongest earthquakes that occurred in Greece and Japan during the last 3 decades, i.e., the Mw6.9 earthquake in southwestern Greece on 14 February 2008 and the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan on 11 March 2011.展开更多
Using the order parameter of seismicity defined in natural time, we suggest a simple model for the expla- nation of Bath law, according to which a mainshock differs in magnitude from its largest aftershock by approxim...Using the order parameter of seismicity defined in natural time, we suggest a simple model for the expla- nation of Bath law, according to which a mainshock differs in magnitude from its largest aftershock by approximately 1.2 regardless of the mainshock magnitude. In addition, the validity of Bath law is studied in the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue by using two different aftershock definitions. It is found that the mean of this difference, when considering all the pairs mainshock-largest aftershock, does not markedly differ from 1.2 and the corresponding distributions do not depend on the mainshock＇s magnitude threshold in a statistically significant manner. Finally, the analysis of the cumulative distribution functions provides evidence in favour of the proposed model.展开更多
This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analys...This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analysis, important precursory changes cannot be identified and hence are missed. Natural time analysis has the privilege that enables the introduction of an order parameter of seismicity. In this frame, we find that the fluctuations of this parameter exhibit an unprecedented characteristic change, i.e., an evident minimum, approximately two months before Tohoku earthquake, which strikingly is almost simultaneous with unique anomalous geomagnetic field variations recorded mainly on the z component. This is consistent with our finding that such a characteristic change in seismicity appears when a seismic electric signal （SES） activity of the VAN method （from the initials of Varotsos, Alexopoulos, Nomicos） initiates, and provides a direct confirmation of the physical interconnection between SES and seismicity.展开更多
The Varotsos-Alexopoulos-Nomicos （VAN） method of short-term earthquake prediction was introduced in the 1980s. The VAN method enables estimation of the epicenter, magnitude and occurrence time of an impending earthq...The Varotsos-Alexopoulos-Nomicos （VAN） method of short-term earthquake prediction was introduced in the 1980s. The VAN method enables estimation of the epicenter, magnitude and occurrence time of an impending earthquake by observing transient changes of the electric field of the Earth termed seismic electric signals （SES）. Here, we present a few examples of SES observed in various earthquake prone areas worldwide.展开更多
文摘The procedure through which the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake can be determined is reviewed in the light of the recent advances. This can be achieved by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area. To apply this general procedure, we need two important elements： first, to know when we should start the analysis, i.e., set the natural time equal to zero. This is the time at which the system enters the critical stage. Second a reliable estimation of the candidate epicentral area. If geoelectrical measurements are taken and the VAN method （after the initials of the three researchers Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos）is applied, both these elements become available upon the recording of a precursory Seismic Electric Signals （SES） activity, because its initiation marks the time when the system enters the critical stage, and in addition the SES data enable the determination of the epicentral area of the impending mainshock. On the other hand, if geoelectrical data are lacking, we make use of the following two recent findings by means of natural time analysis： First, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity in a large area exhibit a minimum a few months before a major earthquake almost simultaneously with the initiation of an SES activity. Second, a spatiotemporal study of this minimum unveils an estimate of the epicentral area of the impending major earthquake. Two examples are given that refer to the strongest earthquakes that occurred in Greece and Japan during the last 3 decades, i.e., the Mw6.9 earthquake in southwestern Greece on 14 February 2008 and the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan on 11 March 2011.
文摘Using the order parameter of seismicity defined in natural time, we suggest a simple model for the expla- nation of Bath law, according to which a mainshock differs in magnitude from its largest aftershock by approximately 1.2 regardless of the mainshock magnitude. In addition, the validity of Bath law is studied in the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue by using two different aftershock definitions. It is found that the mean of this difference, when considering all the pairs mainshock-largest aftershock, does not markedly differ from 1.2 and the corresponding distributions do not depend on the mainshock＇s magnitude threshold in a statistically significant manner. Finally, the analysis of the cumulative distribution functions provides evidence in favour of the proposed model.
文摘This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analysis, important precursory changes cannot be identified and hence are missed. Natural time analysis has the privilege that enables the introduction of an order parameter of seismicity. In this frame, we find that the fluctuations of this parameter exhibit an unprecedented characteristic change, i.e., an evident minimum, approximately two months before Tohoku earthquake, which strikingly is almost simultaneous with unique anomalous geomagnetic field variations recorded mainly on the z component. This is consistent with our finding that such a characteristic change in seismicity appears when a seismic electric signal （SES） activity of the VAN method （from the initials of Varotsos, Alexopoulos, Nomicos） initiates, and provides a direct confirmation of the physical interconnection between SES and seismicity.
文摘The Varotsos-Alexopoulos-Nomicos （VAN） method of short-term earthquake prediction was introduced in the 1980s. The VAN method enables estimation of the epicenter, magnitude and occurrence time of an impending earthquake by observing transient changes of the electric field of the Earth termed seismic electric signals （SES）. Here, we present a few examples of SES observed in various earthquake prone areas worldwide.
