China achieved average GDP growth of nearly 10 percent over the period 1978-2015. However, how long can such high levels of growth be sustained, especially when per capita GDP levels have reached middle-income status,...China achieved average GDP growth of nearly 10 percent over the period 1978-2015. However, how long can such high levels of growth be sustained, especially when per capita GDP levels have reached middle-income status, and the normal tendency of economies is to slow down as they mature？ This paper reviews the recent literature on the determinants and outlook for real GDP growth in China and addresses some of the key issues, including identifying supply-side factors that can support continued strong growth under favorable conditions, as well as risk factors that might cause growth to fall short. The paper reviews supply-side determinants of growth using a growth accounting framework, and also assesses major demand-side factors driving potential growth, including exports, capital formation and household consumption.展开更多
China has been growing at an unprecedented rate since economic reforms were initiated in 1978, achieving an average annual real GDP growth rate of 9.7 percent over the entire period through to 2015. Even more remarkably,
文摘China achieved average GDP growth of nearly 10 percent over the period 1978-2015. However, how long can such high levels of growth be sustained, especially when per capita GDP levels have reached middle-income status, and the normal tendency of economies is to slow down as they mature？ This paper reviews the recent literature on the determinants and outlook for real GDP growth in China and addresses some of the key issues, including identifying supply-side factors that can support continued strong growth under favorable conditions, as well as risk factors that might cause growth to fall short. The paper reviews supply-side determinants of growth using a growth accounting framework, and also assesses major demand-side factors driving potential growth, including exports, capital formation and household consumption.
文摘China has been growing at an unprecedented rate since economic reforms were initiated in 1978, achieving an average annual real GDP growth rate of 9.7 percent over the entire period through to 2015. Even more remarkably,
