This paper uses the Growth Accounting framework and Ordered Logistic model to research the direct causes and contributing factors of China's economy slowdown over the past six decades. The results show that 90% of...This paper uses the Growth Accounting framework and Ordered Logistic model to research the direct causes and contributing factors of China's economy slowdown over the past six decades. The results show that 90% of the slowdown can be explained by the reduction of totalfactor productivity, and the key to steady growth is to boost total factor productivity. It means that, to determine whether the economic slowdown is due to the cyclical influence or the turning point of growth trend, the standard depends on if reform measures promote total factor productivity.展开更多
Mass migration of rural workers to cities will inevitably increase urban housing demand. However, the scale of vacant urban housing will increase in future as a result of the population aging and the rising number of ...Mass migration of rural workers to cities will inevitably increase urban housing demand. However, the scale of vacant urban housing will increase in future as a result of the population aging and the rising number of empty nesters. Therefore, demographic transition may not only increase housing demand, but also increase housing supply. Using an overlapping generations model, the present paper investigates＇ the impact of demographic transition on housing consumption. We find that there is a nonlinear relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and housing consumption in China. With the deepening of population aging, housing consumption will increase; when the elderly dependency ratio reaches a turning point, housing consumption will decrease. The turning point of the nonlinear curve also depends on population mobility. A greater degree of population mobility will result in a delayed turning point. Furthermore, the turning point of the nonlinear curve will emerge when China＇s elderly dependency ratio reaches a value of 32 percent in 2025. This means that over the next decade, China should continue to increase the level of housing supply,展开更多
文摘This paper uses the Growth Accounting framework and Ordered Logistic model to research the direct causes and contributing factors of China's economy slowdown over the past six decades. The results show that 90% of the slowdown can be explained by the reduction of totalfactor productivity, and the key to steady growth is to boost total factor productivity. It means that, to determine whether the economic slowdown is due to the cyclical influence or the turning point of growth trend, the standard depends on if reform measures promote total factor productivity.
基金financially supported by theNational Social Science Foundation of China(No.11CJL011)
文摘Mass migration of rural workers to cities will inevitably increase urban housing demand. However, the scale of vacant urban housing will increase in future as a result of the population aging and the rising number of empty nesters. Therefore, demographic transition may not only increase housing demand, but also increase housing supply. Using an overlapping generations model, the present paper investigates＇ the impact of demographic transition on housing consumption. We find that there is a nonlinear relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and housing consumption in China. With the deepening of population aging, housing consumption will increase; when the elderly dependency ratio reaches a turning point, housing consumption will decrease. The turning point of the nonlinear curve also depends on population mobility. A greater degree of population mobility will result in a delayed turning point. Furthermore, the turning point of the nonlinear curve will emerge when China＇s elderly dependency ratio reaches a value of 32 percent in 2025. This means that over the next decade, China should continue to increase the level of housing supply,
