Study on Statistical Forecast Method for O_3 Concentration near the Ground in Pudong District of Shanghai Based on Meteorological Condition Analysis

[Objective] The research aimed to study statistical forecast method for O3 concentration near the ground in Pudong District of Shanghai based on meteorological condition analysis. [Method] Via observation and statistical analysis of the O3 concentration near the ground in Pudong District of Shanghai from 2006 to 2008, by considering meteorological condition, a kind of simple and practical new method suiting for forecast of the O3 concentration and pre-warning of the high-concentration O3 pollution event in whole year was established. [Result] Meteorological condition had obvious influence on O3 concentration near the ground. O3 concentration was the biggest in sunny day, followed by cloudy day. O3 concentration near the ground had typical seasonal change characteristics, and high value mainly happened in summer. Meteorological condition generating high-concentration O3 included sunny day, strong UV radiation, low relative humidity, high temperature and small wind speed, etc. By surveying historical weather chart, 10 kinds of main weather situations affecting Shanghai were summed. Under each weather situation, occurrence probability of the high-concentration O3 near the ground and average O3 concentration were conducted statistics. We found that occurrence probability of the high-concentration O3 was the biggest under northwest side of the subtropical high type, followed by internal type of the subtropical high. By introducing HPPI and WDI and comprehensively considering various meteorological factors, forecasting equation of the O3 concentration was established based on stepwise regression. The equation had good fitting effect and predictability on the daily maximum O3 concentration. [Conclusion] The method also could provide reference for O3 forecast in other areas.

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations in Particulate Matter at Shanghai during the Heavy Haze and Non-haze Periods

In order to reveal the diurnal and seasonal variations in particulate mass concentration( PM1,PM2. 5,and PM10) during the heavy haze periods and non-haze periods,the statistics based on the data from the Shanghai Urban Environmental Meteorological Center from December 2008 to November 2010 were analyzed. The results were shown as follows. The particulate matter and black carbon( BC) concentrations,especially the fine particulate matter concentrations during the heavy haze were significantly higher than that during the non-haze periods. Overall,the averaged proportion of PM2. 5to PM10 accounted for 59% during the non-haze periods and 81% during the heavy haze periods while that of PM1 to PM10accounted for 43% for the non-haze periods and 70% for the heavy haze periods. Particulate matter concentration had two peaks at11: 00 and 17: 00 in a day. The aerosols concentrations were the highest while the seasonal variation of visibility was the lowest in winter,followed successively by spring,autumn,and summer.

SATELLITE-BASED ANALYSIS ON THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OF SUPER TYPHOON MUIFA (1109)

Multisatellite data is used to analyze the characteristics of three eyewall replacement cycles(ERCs) during the lifetime of Typhoon Muifa(1109).Spiral rainbands evolutions,concentric eyewall(CE) structure modes,CE durations,and intensity changes are discussed in detail.In addition,an ERC evolution model of Typhoon Muifa is given.There are four main findings.(1) The outer spiral rainband joins end to end to form the outer eyewall after it disconnects from the original(inner) eyewall.The inner eyewall weakens as the outer eyewall becomes axisymmetric and is intensified.The contraction of the outer eyewall causes the inner eyewall to dissipate rapidly.Finally,the ERC ends with an annular eyewall or spiral rainbands.(2) Although the CE duration times of Typhoon Muifa's three ERCs covered a large range,the CE structures were all maintained for approximately 5 h from the formation of the axisymmetric outer eyewall to the end of the cycle.(3) There is no obvious precipitation reflectivity in the eye or moat region for the subsidence flow.The convection within the two eyewalls is organized as a radially outward slope with increasing height.(4) Typhoon intensity estimation results based on ADT may not explain the intensity variations associated with ERC correctly,while the typhoon's warm core data retrieved from AMSU-A works well.