Climate variability impacts on cocoa production are evaluated for the first time using 31 years (1979-2010) of data from SODEXAM (climate ground- based observations) and the ex-CAISTAB in three main cocoa production r...Climate variability impacts on cocoa production are evaluated for the first time using 31 years (1979-2010) of data from SODEXAM (climate ground- based observations) and the ex-CAISTAB in three main cocoa production regions (Goh, Marahoué, and Haut-Sassandra) in the west-central part of Cote d’Ivoire. The work is a contribution to improving the quality of climate services dedicated to cocoa cultivation to ensure producers’ income and improve the yield of the production in the west-central part of Cote d’Ivoire. The results show that cocoa production is affected by the changes and variability in climate conditions (i.e. rainfall and temperature). In the Goh region, the increase in cocoa production seems to be mostly related to the augmentation of rainfall amount while in Marahoué, the increase in temperature is identified to have a more significant impact. Over the Haut-Sassandra region, both temperature and rainfall seem to have a considerable effect on the changes in cocoa production. The analysis based on linear regression by least-squares fit shows two characteristic modes (low and high-frequency variability) in the relationships between cocoa production and meteorological conditions suggesting a strong temporal signal impact related to the changes in the emblazoned surfaces. This leads to an important impact of the short-term variations of climate in cocoa production whereas, the influence of the long-term variability in climate on the cocoa yield seems marginal.展开更多
The ability of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in AMMA-ENSEMBLES project is assessed over six meteorological stations in Côte d’Ivoire. The ensemble mean of the models is also used for the prediction ...The ability of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in AMMA-ENSEMBLES project is assessed over six meteorological stations in Côte d’Ivoire. The ensemble mean of the models is also used for the prediction of climate change over West Africa. The study focused on two periods: the period 1995-2005, the present-day simulations, is used to evaluate the skills of the models over the country and the years 2010-2013, for assessment of the future climate change scenario used. The results show that the skills of the models vary from one station to another and from one season to another. None of the models considered, presents an excellent performance over the entire country and in all the seasons. Generally, the ensemble mean of all the models presents better results when compared with the observation. These results suggest that the choice of any model for study over the country may depend on the focus of interest: intensity or variability of the rain and also on area of interest. The projection for 2020-2040, future climate change over West Africa shows that the Sahel exhibits a tendency to be drier while wetter Guinean coast is observed.展开更多
文摘Climate variability impacts on cocoa production are evaluated for the first time using 31 years (1979-2010) of data from SODEXAM (climate ground- based observations) and the ex-CAISTAB in three main cocoa production regions (Goh, Marahoué, and Haut-Sassandra) in the west-central part of Cote d’Ivoire. The work is a contribution to improving the quality of climate services dedicated to cocoa cultivation to ensure producers’ income and improve the yield of the production in the west-central part of Cote d’Ivoire. The results show that cocoa production is affected by the changes and variability in climate conditions (i.e. rainfall and temperature). In the Goh region, the increase in cocoa production seems to be mostly related to the augmentation of rainfall amount while in Marahoué, the increase in temperature is identified to have a more significant impact. Over the Haut-Sassandra region, both temperature and rainfall seem to have a considerable effect on the changes in cocoa production. The analysis based on linear regression by least-squares fit shows two characteristic modes (low and high-frequency variability) in the relationships between cocoa production and meteorological conditions suggesting a strong temporal signal impact related to the changes in the emblazoned surfaces. This leads to an important impact of the short-term variations of climate in cocoa production whereas, the influence of the long-term variability in climate on the cocoa yield seems marginal.
文摘The ability of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in AMMA-ENSEMBLES project is assessed over six meteorological stations in Côte d’Ivoire. The ensemble mean of the models is also used for the prediction of climate change over West Africa. The study focused on two periods: the period 1995-2005, the present-day simulations, is used to evaluate the skills of the models over the country and the years 2010-2013, for assessment of the future climate change scenario used. The results show that the skills of the models vary from one station to another and from one season to another. None of the models considered, presents an excellent performance over the entire country and in all the seasons. Generally, the ensemble mean of all the models presents better results when compared with the observation. These results suggest that the choice of any model for study over the country may depend on the focus of interest: intensity or variability of the rain and also on area of interest. The projection for 2020-2040, future climate change over West Africa shows that the Sahel exhibits a tendency to be drier while wetter Guinean coast is observed.
