China’s economy can potentially grow at about 7% if capacity is adequately utilised.However,production capacity exceeds demand as a result of credit-driven over-investment in the past decade.Without demand-boosting p...China’s economy can potentially grow at about 7% if capacity is adequately utilised.However,production capacity exceeds demand as a result of credit-driven over-investment in the past decade.Without demand-boosting policies,we estimate that the self-sustaining growth rate is currently 6%at most.The government faces a tougher balancing act in展开更多
·China commits to lifting price controls in competitive sectors by 2017 under new guidelines·Reforms focus on monopolistic sectors,public sector and heavily subsidised sectors·Price reforms send a stron...·China commits to lifting price controls in competitive sectors by 2017 under new guidelines·Reforms focus on monopolistic sectors,public sector and heavily subsidised sectors·Price reforms send a strong signal of accelerating deep reformsMost remaining price controls to be lifted by 2017China recently announced a new round of pricing reforms and set a timetable for revamping the country’s pricing mechanism.Price controls for most goods and services in com-展开更多
Car sales in China are booming,but gasoline consumption seems to be stuck in the slow lane. Chart 1 illustrates this apparent mystery(it shows sales of petroleum and oil products,since we do not have data on retail ga...Car sales in China are booming,but gasoline consumption seems to be stuck in the slow lane. Chart 1 illustrates this apparent mystery(it shows sales of petroleum and oil products,since we do not have data on retail gasoline sales).Sceptics point to this odd turn of events as evidence that cars are being bought en masse by state firms and government展开更多
Is China＇s economy really overheating？ Many of the year-on-year （y/y） numbers now look worrying. Electricity production in December 2009 rose 27% y/y, for instance; Q4 GDP rose by 10.7% y/y, above the 8-10% range ...Is China＇s economy really overheating？ Many of the year-on-year （y/y） numbers now look worrying. Electricity production in December 2009 rose 27% y/y, for instance; Q4 GDP rose by 10.7% y/y, above the 8-10% range which most economists agree is .trend growth. The problem with looking at year-on-year numbers, though, is that be-cause of the problems the economy experienced a year ago, the base effects are huge.展开更多
Our proprietary survey of 30 developers suggests no quick market turnaround on the horizon Sales have improved mildly and prices seem to be bottoming,but inventory is being digested only slowly Construction activity r...Our proprietary survey of 30 developers suggests no quick market turnaround on the horizon Sales have improved mildly and prices seem to be bottoming,but inventory is being digested only slowly Construction activity remained weak;financing became more difficult despite lower funding costs Our China Developers Sentiment Index moderated,suggesting still-fragile sentiment in the展开更多
China＇s economy will likely start 2010 with double-digit GDP growth, a booming infrastructure build-out, a tightening labour market, and increasing worries about inflation. However, concerns about the global recovery...China＇s economy will likely start 2010 with double-digit GDP growth, a booming infrastructure build-out, a tightening labour market, and increasing worries about inflation. However, concerns about the global recovery and about what will hap- pen when the stimulus package ends mean policy makers will be hesitant to tighten. We expect growth to moderate during the year as consumer spending grows steadily but investment growth slows.展开更多
Wages are up by 10%in nominal terms in Guangdong province,our survey suggests That is roughly 6-8%in real terms,which is not inflationary,in our view Rising wages add to the list of challenges already faced by PRD man...Wages are up by 10%in nominal terms in Guangdong province,our survey suggests That is roughly 6-8%in real terms,which is not inflationary,in our view Rising wages add to the list of challenges already faced by PRD manufacturers Factory workers are the winners,though,further supporting consumption growth Wages are on the rise again in Guangdong,a big exporting province,and across much of the rest of China.In recent months,there展开更多
The number of new project starts is still high,pointing to a huge investment boom in 2010 Cement and steel production numbers are a better gauge of real activity than FAI numbers, but also have issues Both have platea...The number of new project starts is still high,pointing to a huge investment boom in 2010 Cement and steel production numbers are a better gauge of real activity than FAI numbers, but also have issues Both have plateaued recently but are likely to rise more after the mid-February展开更多
文摘China’s economy can potentially grow at about 7% if capacity is adequately utilised.However,production capacity exceeds demand as a result of credit-driven over-investment in the past decade.Without demand-boosting policies,we estimate that the self-sustaining growth rate is currently 6%at most.The government faces a tougher balancing act in
文摘·China commits to lifting price controls in competitive sectors by 2017 under new guidelines·Reforms focus on monopolistic sectors,public sector and heavily subsidised sectors·Price reforms send a strong signal of accelerating deep reformsMost remaining price controls to be lifted by 2017China recently announced a new round of pricing reforms and set a timetable for revamping the country’s pricing mechanism.Price controls for most goods and services in com-
文摘Car sales in China are booming,but gasoline consumption seems to be stuck in the slow lane. Chart 1 illustrates this apparent mystery(it shows sales of petroleum and oil products,since we do not have data on retail gasoline sales).Sceptics point to this odd turn of events as evidence that cars are being bought en masse by state firms and government
文摘Is China＇s economy really overheating？ Many of the year-on-year （y/y） numbers now look worrying. Electricity production in December 2009 rose 27% y/y, for instance; Q4 GDP rose by 10.7% y/y, above the 8-10% range which most economists agree is .trend growth. The problem with looking at year-on-year numbers, though, is that be-cause of the problems the economy experienced a year ago, the base effects are huge.
文摘Our proprietary survey of 30 developers suggests no quick market turnaround on the horizon Sales have improved mildly and prices seem to be bottoming,but inventory is being digested only slowly Construction activity remained weak;financing became more difficult despite lower funding costs Our China Developers Sentiment Index moderated,suggesting still-fragile sentiment in the
文摘China＇s economy will likely start 2010 with double-digit GDP growth, a booming infrastructure build-out, a tightening labour market, and increasing worries about inflation. However, concerns about the global recovery and about what will hap- pen when the stimulus package ends mean policy makers will be hesitant to tighten. We expect growth to moderate during the year as consumer spending grows steadily but investment growth slows.
文摘Wages are up by 10%in nominal terms in Guangdong province,our survey suggests That is roughly 6-8%in real terms,which is not inflationary,in our view Rising wages add to the list of challenges already faced by PRD manufacturers Factory workers are the winners,though,further supporting consumption growth Wages are on the rise again in Guangdong,a big exporting province,and across much of the rest of China.In recent months,there
文摘The number of new project starts is still high,pointing to a huge investment boom in 2010 Cement and steel production numbers are a better gauge of real activity than FAI numbers, but also have issues Both have plateaued recently but are likely to rise more after the mid-February
