Roll Vortices in the Boundary Layer Caused by a Concave Wind Profile: A Theoretical Study

The present study solves a two-layer atmospheric wave equation model with a lower atmosphere concave wind profile and cold-air outbreak over sea, while simultaneously proving that such a wind shear may cause neutral boundary layer roll vortices in the presence of disturbing sources upstream. Without thermal effects, the wind shear-induced waves have band structures at the top of the boundary layer that are similar to cloud street patterns observed over sea. This study proves that dynamic and thermal effects can act independently to initiate the roll vortices in the lower atmosphere. At the same time, a quantitative comparison shows that dynamic effects play a large role in the formation of roll vortices in the initial stage of cold-air outbreak and will be surpassed by thermal effects soon after surface heating commences.

Ensemble Hindcasts of ENSO Events over the Past 120 Years Using a Large Number of Ensembles

Based on an intermediate coupled model （ICM）, a probabilistic ensemble prediction system （EPS） has been developed. The ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） data assimilation approach is used for generating the initial ensemble conditions, and a linear, first-order Markov-Chain SST anomaly error model is embedded into the EPS to provide model-error perturbations. In this study, we perform ENSO retrospective forecasts over the 120 year period 1886-2005 using the EPS with 100 ensemble members and with initial conditions obtained by only assimilating historic SST anomaly observations. By examining the retrospective ensemble forecasts and available observations, the verification results show that the skill of the ensemble mean of the EPS is greater than that of a single deterministic forecast using the same ICM, with a distinct improvement of both the correlation and root mean square （RMS） error between the ensemble-mean hindcast and the deterministic scheme over the 12-month prediction period. The RMS error of the ensemble mean is almost 0.2℃ smaller than that of the deterministic forecast at a lead time of 12 months. The probabilistic skill of the EPS is also high with the predicted ensemble following the SST observations well, and the areas under the relative operating characteristic （ROC） curves for three different ENSO states （warm events, cold events, and neutral events） are all above 0.55 out to 12 months lead time. However, both deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of the EPS show an interdecadal variation. For the deterministic skill, there is high skill in the late 19th century and in the middle-late 20th century （which includes some artificial skill due to the model training period）, and low skill during the period from 1906 to 1961. For probabilistic skill, for the three different ENSO states, there is still a similar interdecadal variation of ENSO probabilistic predictability during the period 1886~2005. There is high skill in the late 19th century from 1886 to 1905, and a decline to a minimum of skill around 1910-50s, beyond which skill rebounds and increases with time until the 2000s.

An Ocean Reanalysis System for the Joining Area of Asia and Indian-Pacific Ocean

An ocean reanalysis system for the joining area of Asia and Indian-Pacific Ocean (AIPO) has been developed and is currently delivering reanalysis data sets for study on the air-sea interaction over AIPO and its climate variation over China in the inter-annual time scale.This system consists of a nested ocean model forced by atmospheric reanalysis,an ensemble-based multivariate ocean data assimilation system and various ocean observations.The following report describes the main components of the data assimilation system in detail.The system adopts an ensemble optimal interpolation scheme that uses a seasonal update from a free running model to estimate the background error covariance matrix.In view of the systematic biases in some observation systems,some treatments were performed on the observations before the assimilation.A coarse resolution reanalysis dataset from the system is preliminarily evaluated to demonstrate the performance of the system for the period 1992 to 2006 by comparing this dataset with other observations or reanalysis data.

Anthropogenic Direct Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols in 1850 and 2000 Estimated with IPCC AR5 Emissions Inventories

This study estimates direct radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all aerosols between the years 1850 and 2000,using the new IPCC AR5 (the Intergov-ernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report) emissions inventories and a fully coupled chem-istry-aerosol general circulation model.As compared to the previous Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) data,that have been commonly used for forcing estimates since 1990,the IPCC AR5 emissions inventories report lower anthropogenic emissions of organic carbon and black carbon aerosols and higher sulfur and NO x emis-sions.The simulated global and annual mean burdens of sulfate,nitrate,black carbon (BC),primary organic aero-sol (POA),secondary organic aerosol (SOA),and ozone were 0.79,0.35,0.05,0.49,0.34,and 269 Tg,respectively,in the year 1850,and 1.90,0.90,0.11,0.71,0.32,and 377 Tg,respectively,in the year 2000.The estimated annual mean top of the atmosphere (TOA) direct radiative forc-ing of all anthropogenic aerosols based on the AR5 emis-sions inventories is-0.60 W m-2 on a global mean basis from 1850 to 2000.However,this is-2.40 W m-2 when forcing values are averaged over eastern China (18-45°N and 95-125°E).The value for tropospheric ozone is 0.17 W m-2 on a global mean basis and 0.24 W m-2 over east-ern China.Forcing values indicate that the climatic effect of aerosols over eastern China is much more significant than the globally averaged effect.

Properties of Solar Radiation over Chinese Arid and Semi-Arid Areas

Climatic characteristics of broadband solarradiation (Rs) in Chinese arid and semi-arid areas are reported in this study. The annual average daily Rs in thearid and semi-arid areas is 16.3 ± 5.77 and 15.3 ± 5.16 MJm-2 d-1, respectively. The highest value (17.2 ± 5.84 MJm-2 d-1) appears in an arid area at Linze. The lowest valueappears in the semi-arid area of Ansai. Pronounced seasonal variation of Rs is observed with the highest value insummer and the lowest in winter. The clearness indexshowed similar seasonal pattern at most sites, with theminimum observed in the summer and the highest valuesin winter at both arid and semi-arid areas. The seasonalvariation of the ratio of Rs to its extraterrestrial value Kt inthe arid area is more significant than that observed in thesemi-arid region, and it is caused by the different range ofvariation of water vapor between arid and semi-arid areasThe seasonal fluctuations in Rs and Kt are mainly controlled by the water vapor content in these areas. Theaerosol particles have significant influence on Rs and Kt atstations with higher aerosol burden.

The Impact of "Bad" Argo Profiles on Ocean Data Assimilation

Recent studies have found cold biases in a fraction of Argo profiles (hereinafter referred to as bad Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (Argo) profiles) due to the pressure drifts during 2003 and 2006. These bad Argo profiles have had an important impact on in situ observation-based global ocean heat content esti- mates. This study investigated the impact of bad Argo profiles on ocean data assimilation results that were based on observations from diverse ocean observation systems, such as in situ profiles (e.g., Argo, expendable bathy- thermograph (XBT), and Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO), remote-sensing sea surface temperature products and satellite altimetry between 2004 and 2006. Results from this work show that the upper ocean heat content analysis is vulnerable to bad Argo profiles and demon- strate a cooling trend in the studied period despite the multiple independent data types that were assimilated. When the bad Argo profiles were excluded from the as- similation, the decreased heat content disappeared and a warming occurred. Combination of satellite altimetry and mass variation data from gravity satellite demonstrated an increase, which agrees well with the increased heat con- tent. Additionally, when an additional Argo profile quality control procedure was utilized that simply removed the profiles that presented static unstable water columns, the results were very similar to those obtained when the bad Argo profiles were excluded from the assimilation. This indicates that an ocean data assimilation that uses multiple data sources with improved quality control could be less vulnerable to a major observation system failure, such as a bad Argo event.

An Evidence of Aerosol Indirect Effect on Stratus Clouds from the Integrated Ground-Based Measurements at the ARM Shouxian Site

The aerosol effect on clouds was explored using remote sensing of aerosol and cloud data at Shouxian, China. Non-precipitation, ice-free, and overcast clouds were firstly chosen by a combination of sky images from the Total Sky Imager (TSI), cloud base heights from the Ceilometer, and vertical temperature profiles from the Balloon-Borne Sounding System (BBSS). Six cases were chosen in summer, and seven in autumn. The averaged cloud effective radii (re), cloud optical depth (COD), aerosol total light scattering coefficient (σ), and liquid water path (LWP) are, respectivey, 6.47 μm, 35.4, 595.9 mm-1, 0.19 mm in summer, and 6.07 μm, 96.0, 471.7 mm-1, 0.37 mm in autumn. The correlation coefficient between re and σ was found to change from negative to positive value as LWP increases.

Impact of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Diurnal Temperature Range in January in Eastern China

This study investigates the changes in January diurnal temperature range(DTR) in China during 1961-2000.The observed DTR changes during 1981-2000 relative to 1961-80 are first analyzed based on the daily temperature data at 546 weather stations.These observed DTR changes are classified into six cases depending on the changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures,and then the occurrence frequency and magnitude of DTR change in each case are presented.Three transient simulations are then performed to understand the impact of greenhouse gases(GHGs) and aerosol direct forcing on DTR change:one without anthropogenic radiative forcing,one with anthropogenic GHGs,and another one with the combined forcing of GHGs and five species of anthropogenic aerosols.The predicted daily DTR changes during the years 1981-2000 are also classified into six cases and are compared with the observations.Results show that the previously proposed reason for DTR reduction,a stronger nocturnal warming than a daytime warming,explains only 19.8%of the observed DTR reduction days.DTR reductions are found to generally occur in northeastern China,coinciding with significant regional warming.The simulation with GHG forcing alone reproduces this type of DTR reduction with an occurrence frequency of 32.9%,which is larger than the observed value.Aerosol direct forcing reduces DTR mainly by daytime cooling.Consideration of aerosol cooling improves the simulation of occurrence frequencies of different types of DTR changes as compared to the simulation with GHGs alone,but it cannot improve the prediction of the magnitude of DTR changes.

The Observed Low CO_2 Concentration in the Rongbuk Valley on the Northern Slope of Mt. Everest

In the summers of 2006 and 2007, the atmospheric CO 2 concentration and the wind speed in the Rongbuk Valley on the northern slope of Mt. Everest were measured by an ultrasonic anemometer with an Li-7500 CO 2 /H 2 O gas analyzer. The average CO 2 concentration was 370.23±0.59 and 367.45±1.91 ppm in June of 2006 and 2007, respectively. The values are much lower than those at sites with similar latitudes and altitudes worldwide. The observed atmospheric CO 2 concentration in Rongbuk Valley can be affected by the transportation of prevailing down-valley winds from the up-valley direction to the observation site. Our results suggest that the Mt. Everest region could be ideal for background atmospheric and environmental studies.